First, the good news on voter registration stats, in the 60 day registration report, there are more Dems, less Republicans, and a few more DTSers. You can find all of the data in the stats at the SoS site, but here's a quick summary to the right.
Now, here's where the rose-colored glasses come in. When asked about the numbers, California GOP chair Ron Nehring had this to say:
California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring said the party has made slight gains since the start of the year, going from 30.75 percent of registered voters in January to 30.8 percent in April.
Nehring said more voters are identifying themselves as Republicans in the state and the rest of the nation.
"We're climbing while the Democrats are falling," he said. (SJ Merc)
First of all, 30.75 to 30.8 isn't even a rounding error. It's the same number rounded to the next place. Furthemore, even if he was going to argue from the January position, the numbers are exactly the same for the two parties. So instead of trying to help Nehring out with the numbers, I have a better idea. I've come up with a few possible other big whoppers to tell when you are desperate. And, remember, no need to mess with reality with this.
Congratulations to the NCAA champion Cal basketball team!
President McCain is very fond of California Republicans, he said he'll get the presidential phonograph spinning a tune just for us!
Despite Obama's perceived drag on the party, registration numbers are still moving towards Democrats in Fresno County.
Fresno County has certified its first voter-registration numbers of the year, and the Democratic Party continues to close the gap with the rival Republican Party. The gap is now just 639 voters. ... Republicans surpassed Democrats a decade ago, and by 2004 had widened the gap countywide to more than 23,500 voters.
Since then, however, the Democrats have been chipping away at the advantage.
In October 2004, Democrats had 140,400 registered voters. Now, they have 157,899. In the meantime, the Republicans have gone from 164,073 in 2004 to 158,538.
Last November, presidential candidate Barack Obama, the Democrat, won Fresno County by more than 5,000 votes over his Republican rival, John McCain. (Fresno Bee)
We'll have to wait until the Secretary of State issues numbers later in the year. But if this trend is statewide, perhaps the conventional wisdom about this electoral season might need to be adjusted.
Meg Whitman was seriously on the ropes for her apparent lack of voting or even registering to vote until she was 46 years old. Her contradictory and downright puzzling alibis and statements after the fact were utterly mockable, and Chris Kelly did the honors, as he's wont to do. But all along, Whitman was looking for a lifeline - some discrepancy in the reporting that she could use to muddy the entire story, to "prove" that the Sacramento Bee was wrong in their reporting, even if 99% of the story remains true. She has found that lifeline.
Republican candidate Meg Whitman was registered to vote in Santa Clara County for nine months in 1999, Santa Clara elections officials said today, admitting that they supplied inaccurate information to The Bee and other news organizations on the issue.
The Registrar of Voters had previously told The Bee and other media outlets that there was no record of Margaret Cushing Whitman being registered to vote or voting in Santa Clara County in its current voter registration database, on its older microfiche records, or in a separate database of canceled voter registrations.
On Monday, Whitman's campaign said its own team had last week discovered a previously unknown record of Whitman being registered to vote. They said they found it in an archived Santa Clara County voter registration database [...]
DFM then found an archival voting registration record for Whitman on an old back-up file of the county's 1999 registration records not available to county staff, he said.
"The back-up file confirmed that Ms. Whitman was registered to vote in Palo Alto from February 8, 1999 to October 4, 1999," Moreles said.
Importantly, no votes took place in Santa Clara County between February and October 1999. And while Whitman, according to the Registrar of Voters, re-registered in a different county sometime after that, there is not yet a record of such a registration - at least not until 2002.
The point is that this doesn't fundamentally change the story about Whitman's voting record. She still hasn't produced the full records on her own; still hasn't confirmed any registration or vote prior to 1999, when she was 43 years old; still hasn't accounted for the "I clearly remember voting in 1984" remark she made on Fox News yesterday; still hasn't clarified numerous contradictions in her evolving set of stories; and still hasn't shown a voting record befitting any kind of engaged citizen.
However, she has one little data point where the Bee made a mistake. And she's sure to use that to try and discredit the whole article and the whole issue. Whenever asked about this from now on, she'll start with "The Sacramento Bee article was inaccurate." And she'll be technically right. And it won't answer the question.
The rising levels of voter participation among the nation's youth continue to be challenged by the current voter registration system, perpetuating the difficulty of fostering lifelong voters. Some states are proposing to take this challenge into their own hands by making voter registration accessible to citizens as young as 16. Already widely accessible at schools and departments of motor vehicles, the move would allow future voters in some states to automatically be enrolled on the voter rolls on their 18th birthdays, a change that advocates say could "close the registry gap between young voters and the rest of the population."
(Registration is an important feature as we look for opportunities to get to 2/3. Thanks for organizing all this data! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
The Secretary of State has just published new voter registration statistics. Compared to the February 10 update, there were 115,300 fewer voters in California on March 20--46,445 fewer Democrats, 41,538 fewer Republicans and 23,295 fewer decline-to-states. Democrats now make up 0.03 percent more of the electorate than they did in February (now 44.55%), while Republicans make up 0.03 percent less (now 31.10%) and Decline to States have remained virtually unchanged (at 19.99%).
At the county level, Republicans have lost ground to Democrats in 36 counties, and gained on Democrats in 21. One county, Napa, has remained perfectly unchanged. The Republican registration advantage in Orange County, for example, has shrunk from 12.21 percent in February to 11.84 percent now. Similar leftward shifts (percentage-wise) are occurring in San Mateo, Alpine, Yolo, Sierra, Tuolumne, San Bernardino, San Francisco and Imperial counties. The only comparable Republican gains are in Kings and Madera counties. If the Orange County rate of Democratic relative growth continues (it most certainly won't), Democrats will outnumber Republicans in Orange county by 2012.
In the State Senate, there are 14 districts where the incumbent party has been losing its relative share of voters since February--nine currently held by Republicans (SD-01, SD-12, SD-14, SD-15, SD-17, SD-18, SD-29, SD-33, SD-35) and five by Democrats (SD-05, SD-16, SD-25, SD-26, SD-39). Only SD-12, SD-15 and SD-17 are competitive. All three of those are held by Republicans and all three already have Democratic registration majorities. SD-12 is the only one of these seats that is up in 2010 and is almost certainly the only 2010 Senate race that will be even close to competitive (Democrats have a 14.04 percent registration edge). SD-04 is theoretically possible to flip if we get a very, very strong Democrat (Republicans have an 11.05 percent registration advantage); but we'd probably wind up with a Democrat like Bob Nelson or Evan Bayh who'd vote against the budget anyway. Our best chance at 2/3 anytime soon is for Maldo or Strickland to quit.
The latest report of registration, current up to February 2010, shows that voters have continued to register Democratic in higher numbers even since the general election. There are now 17.3 million registered voters, 74.4% of all eligible adults, and Democrats have a 2.32 million vote advantage over Republicans. By the percentages, the state consists of 44.52% Democrats, 31.14% Republicans, and 19.99% decline to state, with smaller parties rounding out the rest of the voters.
2010 is the last year before a new census and new district lines, so the district-level numbers only apply for the next election cycle. Still, a close reading makes clear where Democrats should be focusing their registration efforts and resources for the next year.
In Congress, there are two Republican-held seats where Republicans hold less than 40% of the registration share, seen as a key dividing line. Those are Dan Lungren's CA-03 (39.7% Republican-37.7% Democratic) and, surprisingly, Buck McKeon's CA-25 (39.7% Republican-39.2% Democratic), which has changed dramatically over the past few years and could be ripe for a well-funded, legitimate challenger. Obama won that district 50-48 as well. With only 351,421 registered voters in CA-25, there are additional non-voters waiting to be registered there to tighten up those numbers even further. CA-19 also has a shortfall of voters which could lead to a tightening of the rolls.
In the State Senate, the only even-numbered seat (the ones up for election in 2010) that deserves a focus is SD-12, where Jeff Denham is termed out. There are 47.5% registered Democrats and 33.1% registered Republicans. Democrats in that region are fairly conservative, and so there may not be a progressive coming out of that district, but there's no reason on Earth why Democrats shouldn't own that seat. Especially since there may be 100,000 unregistered voters out there.
As for the Assembly, the numbers look good in AD-05, AD-26 (Dems have a 42-39 lead in registration), AD-30 and AD-36, with a few other marginal possibilities based solely on the voter reg. numbers (AD-38, AD-63, AD-64, and AD-65 come to mind). There is absolutely a path to pick up three seats and a 2/3 majority in the Assembly, if the net is cast wide enough.
Of course, oftentimes Democratic officials focus too much, in my view, on voter registration statistics, and shoudl recruit good candidates and give them the resources they need to compete instead. But in this off-year, registration stats offer an opportunity to determine where to target. You can dig through them yourself at the Secretary of State's page.
The past few days have seen another spate of "OMG, Republican incumbents are in trouble!" stories in the traditional media. Aside from them not understanding and internalizing the theory of coattails, this problem is particularly acute among the California media, where gerrymandering is just supposed to lock up Congressional and legislative seats airtight, except when, you know, it doesn't. Peculiar to this rendering of the world is the idea that nobody ever moves, dies, or reaches the age of 18 in any particular district, and thus voter registration statistics are completely static. But of course this is not true, and once the Democratic Party started putting resources into registering new and lapsed voters, why look what happened:
One of the major reasons for these competitive contests has been the narrowing gap in registered voters between the parties. While Republicans still enjoy a substantial advantage over Democrats in all three districts, their leads have shrunk significantly.
Four years ago, Republicans led Democrats among registered voters by margins of 17 percent in the Orange County-based 46th, 15 percent in the San Diego-area 50th and 11 percent in the Riverside County-based 45th. By this year's registration deadline of Oct. 20, those leads had shrunk by 6 percent in the 50th, 5 percent in the 46th and 6 percent in the 45th.
There are still the conventional wisdom-besotted punditocracy that simply can't conceive of these major shifts in the electorate (it's not like anything has happened the past eight years that would lead people to desert the Republican Party in droves, right?), who believe that incumbents just win and that's the end of it. But just ask one of those incumbents what he fears on Tuesday:
HUNTINGTON BEACH - Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach/Long Beach said Friday he's concerned that Republicans will be discouraged by a possible Democratic landslide at the polls, affecting his re-election bid.
"If (Republican nominee John) McCain does not do well, and Republicans stay home, my lead could evaporate," the nine-term incumbent of the 46th Congressional District said.
Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook, the Democratic challenger, said the race is a "statistical dead heat," and agreed that a solid turnout for change - from the economic problems facing the country - could be the difference in Tuesday's hotly contested race.
"All the uncertainty that's going on now is helping," she said, adding that incumbents who have been "part of the system for the past 20 years" could be vulnerable.
This is all the more reason why Democrats and progressives need to remember Jim Corman and get as many voters to the polls as possible. And Don't Stop At The Top, of course.
And if the scenario is bright in the Congressional races, the Assembly looks even brighter. Why, even Dan Walters has figured this one out.
Voters may not realize that they could dramatically alter that balance, but interest groups that are pouring millions of dollars into legislative and ballot measure campaigns certainly get it.
Democrats could pick up one seat in the Senate and are so certain of gaining three to five seats in the Assembly that they've diverted resources into several marginal districts, taking advantage of Obamania-inspired voter registration gains, to shoot for the six added seats that would give them a two-thirds majority. That margin is required for the budget and tax increases and could happen as the Capitol wrestles with a rapidly deteriorating economy and a fast-growing budget deficit.
We know about those top-line seats: AD-80, AD-78, AD-15, AD-10, AD-26. But it's Linda Jones' race in AD-36 that has captured my attention. She represents the ultimate swing vote as the potential 54th Democrat in the State Assembly, the vote that would give us a 2/3 majority, which in California is a governing majority. And Linda Jones happens to be really great, campaiging on a message of green jobs in the waning days of the race.
As part of her campaign to create a stronger economy for the region, Democratic Assembly Candidate Linda Jones (36th District) today announced her "High Desert Region Green Jobs Initiative" - using 'green jobs' to increase opportunities for unemployed and underemployed adults in the High Desert communities. Lt. Governor John Garamendi, a longtime advocate for environmental protection and renewable energy, offered his full support of the plan, calling it a "giant leap forward" for the region's economy.
"Investing in the 'green economy' is a win-win because it will create jobs and increase our clean energy efficiency," said Linda Jones. "The High Desert Region Green Jobs Initiative will create outreach, educational, and training programs to recruit, develop, and sustain a green industry that will create jobs, increase our clean energy efficiency, and grow our economy for the region."
There's a website, High Desert Green Jobs, that details the initiative. It's fantastic that someone in a swing district trying to become the first Democratic member of the Assembly from this region in 34 years is offering such a bold agenda.
This district had an eight-point GOP lean just two years ago. Now the registration gap is GONE. 400 votes separate Democrats and Republicans. Don't give me that redistricting stuff, nothing's stopping this progressive wave. I'm excited for Linda Jones and so is her community.
There's just one day to go. You need to Stay for Change because you can have a major impact right here in California. I'm going to give predictions on everything in the morning. But right now, I'm psyched.
Congratulations to Debra Bowen. Under her leadership, a record 17.3 million Californians are registered to vote in the November election. That is 74.56% of total eligible voters, which isn't too bad. Bowen released the statistics today, and there are lots of interesting numbers in there.
Here are the county stats. Democrats have a 2.25 million voter lead on Republicans, and represent 44.40% of the electorate, as opposed to 31.37% for the Yacht Party. Riverside and Imperial Counties are still below the average for eligible voters (both around 65%), but well up from earlier in the year, a great boon for Manuel Perez' efforts. Orange County is among the best for percentage of eligible voters registered, with 86%. Democrats have taken control in San Bernardino County, with a 10,000-vote lead. And in San Diego County, the spread is an incredible 400 votes (539,560 for Democrats, 539,939 for Republicans).
CA-03: Republicans outnumber Democrats now by just 9,000 votes, a difference of only 2.19%. If Bill Durston doesn't pull off the win, this is the #1 targeted seat for 2010.
CA-04: Still a hefty lead for registered Republicans, 45.94% to 31.06%.
CA-11: Registered Republicans still outnumber registered Dems here, but by only 3,800 votes (about 1%).
CA-26: Now a 20,000 vote spread (around 5.5% lead for Republicans).
CA-45: Republicans outnumber Democrats by 16,000 votes (4.6%). This seat also needs to be targeted heavily now and in the future.
CA-46: 31.91% for Democrats, 44.07% for Republicans.
CA-50: 31.35% for Dems, 40.55% for Republicans.
AD-10: Literally 100 votes separate Democrats and Republicans here. But you know, it's hopelessly gerrymandered.
AD-15: Democrats have 12,000 more votes than Republicans (3.5%).
AD-26: Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5,000 votes (2.4%).
AD-30: A 13,000 vote lead for Democrats.
AD-36: Again, 100 votes separate Democrats and Republicans. I didn't realize it was this close. Linda Jones has a real shot.
AD-37: Republicans have the advantage by 16,000 votes (around 6%).
AD-38: Republicans have a 9,000 vote advantage.
AD-63: That's only an 8,000 vote lead for Republicans.
AD-78: Democrats have fully 26,000 more registered voters than Republicans (a lead of 11%).
AD-80: It's a 15,000 vote lead here, 44.99% to 37.17%.
Six seats flipping, given the expected big turnout, is definitely a possibility.
The State Senate shows gains in SD-12 (47.33% Democratic, 33.41% Republican), SD-15 (40.86% Democratic, 34.82% Republican) and SD-19, where Democrats hold the registration advantage by a thin 1,058 votes. 2/3 is within reach by 2010.
In the last two weeks voter registration and early voting has shown that voters are geared up and ready to take part in what has been called a "historical event" on November 4.
• CA-04: Tom McClintock is bringing out the big guns to help his cash-strapped campaign - Ron Paul is all in!
Paul, the libertarian-Republican congressman from Texas who raised more than $34 million for his presidential race, sent out an e-mail last week urging his massive donor base to contribute to McClintock.
"Tom McClintock is one of the most promising warriors in the fight against big government we have seen in a long time, and the special interests and big bankers know it. ... You have stood with me as....
...I campaigned for the Presidency to return our federal government to its proper role. Will you help me bring a reliable ally to Congress?"
This brings up some interesting questions. Does Tom McClintock think we should withdraw from Iraq and dozens of other military bases around the world? Does he believe in abolishing the Federal Reserve? The coinage of free silver?
• CA-45: New voter registration statistics have not been released by the Secretary of State's office, but I think they will show good news for Democrats across the state. One statistic that is measurable is the early voting number, and in CA-45, it's good news for Julie Bornstein.
Democrats have significantly narrowed the early voting gap in the 45th Congressional District, an encouraging sign for challenger Julie Bornstein in her battle to unseat Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), according to Bornstein campaign manager Walter Ludwig.
In both 2004 and 2006, registered Republicans accounted for about 54 percent of early voters, compared with just 34 percent for Democrats. Mack, now a four-term incumbent, cruised to re-election both years by more than 20 points.
This year, early voting is much more evenly split. The latest numbers from the Riverside County Registrar of Voters show that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by just five percent among early voters.
It's like the entire Republican machine all collapsed at once. They used to be MASTERS at getting absentee votes out. This year, there's either no such effort, or it's being matched by Democrats. CA-45 is under the radar, but these numbers suggest that it shouldn't be.
• CA-46: At the Great Orange Satan, Devilstower has a great piece that could start a new meme about Debbie Cook - the anti-Palin.
Suppose there was a candidate who was as bright and as capable as Sarah Palin is confused and incompetent.
Someone who had a record of working with environmental groups, and who had a real understanding of the threat posed by our dependence on fossil fuels. Someone with a degree in earth science and the long experience to make the claim of being a genuine energy expert.
Someone who not only knew science, but also had a law degree, and was a graduate of the leadership program at the Kennedy School of Government. Someone who has held positions of honor in state and national commissions. Someone who was well respected for both her intellect and her passion.
Suppose there was a candidate who had been mayor of, not a tiny town, but a medium-sized city. And suppose she took that position as a Democrat in the midst of a heavily Republican district.
Suppose there was someone who was everything that Sarah Palin is not.
• AD-78: Bill Cavala, who worked the last close race in this district, took a peek at some new registration numbers which show a real advantage for Marty Block:
This year the new registration 'close' figures show the Democrats with 101, 131 registrants, an increase of about 4100 from the last Presidential year. DTS registrations are 49,855, an increase of about 5800 from 2004. Most remarkably, however, Republican registration has fallen by almost 8000 - from 82,615 four years ago to 74,700 today.
This means the net change is Dems up 4100 and Reps down 8000 or 12,100 in favor of the Democrat over 2004.
Forget the increase in DTS registrations - which vote more Democratic than Republican in San Diego. Starting out down 12,000 in a seat where they won by 2000 with an incumbent - it's open this year - puts the Republican candidate squarely behind the 8 ball.
Just one of the many Assembly races where this is so.
I just jumped off a conference call with some members of the Democratic National Committee and CDP Chair Art Torres about the arrest of YPM founder Marc Jacoby on suspicion of voter registration fraud. As you may know, Jacoby's firm has been "slamming" voters in the Riverside County area, telling them that they were signing ballot initiatives but actually flipping their party affiliation to the Republican Party from the Democratic Party. While the substance of the call was to talk about hypocrisy in the GOP, raising the issue of ACORN in recent weeks while blinded to the fraud their own vendors participate in, Torres was pretty unsparing in his description of YPM. "The California GOP and the RNC need to terminate their relationship with YPM immediately," said Torres. "They shouldn't wait for a conviction to distance themselves from these shady practices." It was revealed yesterday that a joint finance committee of the RNC, McCain-Palin and the Yacht Party has been paying Nathan Sproul, who owns a separate voter registration group that has been accused of rampant fraud. Said Torres, "This is a consistent pattern of bad behavior."
Curiously, nobody seems to be talking about the bigger issue here, which is the fact that YPM was not only slamming voters, but changing their ballot status to absentee, so that when a voter goes to the polling place on Election Day, they are told that they signed up to vote by mail and cannot vote in the election without their absentee ballot. There are issues with slamming, related mainly to GOTV efforts (Democrats don't try to turn out Republicans), but the absentee situation is a pretext for real disenfranchisement. So I asked Chairman Torres about this, and he agreed. "This is designed to create confusion at the polls and force people into filling out provisional ballots. There are still hundreds of thousands of provisional ballots that haven't been counted from Ohio in 2004. This is about voter suppression, and we've seen it over and over again in California." He related it to the Dirty Tricks Initiative and the signature gathering fraud used to try and get that on the ballot.
The question, of course, is what we can do about the particular voters affected. YPM is out of business and hopefully their founder will be in jail. But there is no telling how many voters had their party ID switched or their ballot status switched. Hopefully the Secretary of State can come up with some way to verify anyone who passed through YPM's hands.
Over the weekend, we learned about YPM, the voter registration company hired by the state Republican Party which was illegally switching voters' party affiliations under false pretenses, and (this is the buried lede) changing their ballot status in a clear act of voter suppression:
Those who were formerly Democrats may stop receiving phone calls and literature from that party, perhaps affecting its get-out-the-vote efforts. They also will be given only a Republican ballot in the next primary election if they do not switch their registration back before then.
Some also report having their registration status changed to absentee without their permission; if they show up at the polls without a ballot they may be unable to vote.
Robert Cruickshank mentioned that the head of YPM has been arrested in this case and charged with voter registration fraud. In response, the Yacht Party has decided to attack Debra Bowen:
On the eve of California's voter registration deadline, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen has decided to once again show her partisan colors and charge an individual for questions surrounding his own, personal voter registration stemming from 2006 and 2007.
The fact that these charges are being leveled against an individual operating in a highly-contested area of California, and the significant gap between recent allegations and the charges we've seen today suggests that this is politically motivated.
It's clear that Bowen, herself the recipient of an ACORN endorsement (still displayed on her campaign website), has elevated these issues to achieve maximum political benefit and deflect attention from the Democratic Presidential nominee's high-profiled problems and associations with the radical community activist group ACORN.
While we condemn voter fraud in all forms, it is evident that Debra Bowen is using her office to play politics with the public's perception of political parties. This is inappropriate at least, and an abuse of her office and a willing suspension of her duties at worst.
Now, let's make clear that in the original article, YPM founder Marc Jacoby cited Bowen's work - falsely - to prove his own innocence:
He also said that plainclothes investigators for Secretary of State Debra Bowen, a Democrat, have conducted multiple spot checks and told his firm it is doing nothing improper.
"Every time, they gave us a thumbs-up," Jacoby said. "People are not being tricked."
But Nicole Winger, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office, said the agency "does not give an OK or seal of approval to voter registration groups."
That's an out-and-out lie, and it's completely within the purview of the Secretary of State to enforce the laws regarding voter registration. The Yacht Party is being completely disingenuous about Jacoby's illegality here ("personal voter registration" my ass), and they dredge up ACORN, which is not only unrelated to the YPM case, but a situation where paid registration gatherers were defrauding ACORN more than anything else. But it's not surprising to see the Yacht Party fan the fires of hate and use the ACORN scapegoat to answer for their own illegal activities.
And this is Yacht Party illegality. Steve Poizner paid for the YPM voter drive and put a bounty on new registrations.
This story is starting to hit traditional media. Debra Bowen did nothing but her job, and she needs to be supported. Whether you write a letter to the editor, call the Yacht Party offices (hey, here's contact information, imagine that) or just spread the word to your friends and neighbors, do something to call out Republican voter suppression today.
Over 1.3 million new low-income, minority, and young Americans registered nationwide!
Yesterday, as voter registration deadlines passed in most states, Project Vote, the nation's leading nonpartisan voter participation organization, and the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), the country's largest community organization, held a news conference to announce the completion of a joint nonpartisan voter registration drive, which has succeeded in helping over 1.3 million Americans register to vote. To listen to the conference in its entirety, please click here
((I'm told that Act Blue is back up and running, so you can donate now. And we're almost to our goal! $180 left! Who will put us over the top?) - promoted by Robert in Monterey)
Thanks to everyone who has supported our five candidates in the Calitics Match thus far. We're past halfway to our goal, and Debbie Cook has well surpassed our $500 match (way to go!).
Today is crunch time. It's the final day before the end of the third quarter, which is the reporting deadline for federal candidates. This is the best opportunity to make your donations the most meaningful; the quarterly fundraising announcements are key to gauge support, and money put into field and messaging now will pay bigger dividends in the future than a quick cash infusion at the last minute. Please support these candidates and Calitics will match you dollar for dollar.
The Yacht Party Republicans still think you're stupid. They believe they can hide behind the gated communities they've created through gerrymandering, and that Sarah Palin's presence at the top of the ticket will lift their hopes. No, really:
A statewide poll this week underscored the effect Palin has had on the Republican base. According to the Public Policy Institute of California, GOP satisfaction with their presidential choice has doubled since Palin joined the ticket. Unfortunately for McCain, that has not translated into gains against Democrat Barack Obama in California, which has gone to the Democratic presidential candidate in the last four presidential elections.
Still, state Republicans were rejoicing at the possibilities. Thomas G. Del Beccaro, the state party vice chairman, said new volunteers were streaming in faster than at any time since the 2003 recall election. Republicans, he said, were hopeful that a resulting increase in voters would help the party in legislative and congressional races where they might not have been as competitive otherwise.
This is bravado. The wingnut base wasn't going to stay away from a Presidential election. It's the growing decline-to-state base, along with increased Democratic registration statewide, that has the potential to sink the Yacht Party just as Sarah Palin's favorable ratings have sank as voters face the terrifying prospect of her in a position of power. This is the real shift in the electorate:
Since the two parties largely settled on presidential nominees in April, voter rolls have increased by roughly 19,500 - or 2 percent - in Placer, El Dorado, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to new figures from the California secretary of state's office. Democrats accounted for 10,500 of those new voters. Just 2,400 were Republicans. Most of the others declined to state an allegiance.
The regional numbers mirror a statewide trend. California's Democratic voter rolls have increased by 181,118 since April while the number of Republicans grew by 6,823. Republicans saw a net loss of registered voters in 25 counties, including a loss of more than 15,000 in conservative Orange County. Similar trends are playing out nationally, in several battleground states.
You can see the data for yourself. Particularly in this financial crisis, Californians are ready for a new direction away from failed conservative policies.
All that stands between our five candidates and victory in November is making sure they have the resources to compete. We can help provide that today. Please visit the Calitics Match Act Blue page and give what you can. We'll double your donation to make it that much more meaningful.
Xposted 9/19/2008 7:27 AM PDT on in my BluePalmSpringsBoyz blog on MyDesert.com
As everyone knows by now, this is an historic election year. However, the County of Riverside, and its office for voter registration, has shown incompetency beyond what we have come to expect from them. The County has now run out of voter registration forms, according to George Zander, Desert Stonewall Democratic Club President, and John Eldridge, Julie Bornstein for 45th Congressional District staffer.
For months, the state of California and the county of Riverside have known that this would be an election of more than note. Democratic voters' interest increased during the primary season, especially during the race between the first major candidate of African-American descent, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), and the first major woman candidate, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Voter turnout for Democratic primaries across the country eclipsed previous turnout.
We recently wrote about the Department of Veterans Affairs decision to open its facilities to voter registration drives after months of urging by voting rights groups and elected officials. This week, however, "VA voter suppression continues," as AlterNet's Steven Rosenfeld wrote Tuesday, with voter registration efforts being blocked in California and the VA general counsel criticizing the pending Veterans Voting Support Act (S. 3308), which would bolster federal protection of voter registration opportunities for all wounded veterans. With just three weeks left to register voters in most states, advocates say now is the time to support voter registration efforts in VA facilities and, most importantly, it needs to be explicitly protected from now on through federal law.
0451_2 S.A. closeup
Why is this man standing in front of the Placer County Republican (and McClintock's Campaign HQ) office building in Roseville last Saturday morning?
Some Coachella Valley voters were duped into registering as Republicans, the Riverside County Democratic Central Committee alleged Wednesday.
The party is launching an investigation into the 2,312 new Republican voters that were registered countywide between July 14 and Aug. 11, many in Coachella Valley cities that typically swing Democrat.
They've also contacted the Secretary of State and District Attorney's office. Riverside County DA spokesman Michael Jeandron said he could neither confirm nor deny any investigations.
Democrat party officials raised the questions after getting numerous reports that people were standing outside of stores saying they were collecting signatures for child abuse-related petitions, only to turn around and use the names for voter registration.
(Question: is Michael Jeandron related to Gary Jeandron, the former Palm Springs police chief who's now running as a Republican for State Assembly in AD-80?)
Now, exactly what the point for this would be is an open question. If they're registering voters without telling them, it could perhaps get problematic later if these voters tried to legitimately register as Democrats. That might throw up a lot of mud about doubled registration forms and voter fraud. The other possibilities are that Riverside County Republicans want to maintain their voter registration lead, or simply that paid signature gatherers wanted a few extra dollars for themselves for turning in additional voter registration forms.
Nonetheless, it's very curious.
While shopping at the local Wal-Mart, (Eric Antuna) was asked to sign a petition protesting the early release of child molesters.
He agreed - until he was told he would have to fill out a registration card to prove his identity so the petitioner could be paid.
"Do you mind if I put you as a Republican?" Antuna said the man asked him.
The Democrat did mind.
This is an ongoing investigation and I'm sure the Riverside County Dems will have more.
UPDATE: This is not the first time questions have been raised about GOP voter registration efforts in Riverside County.
The story of the 2008 election is going to be the epic collapse of the Republican Party in traditional strongholds.
The Republican Party, which overtook Valley Democrats in voter registration totals eight years ago, is losing ground for the first time in at least a decade.
After peaking just ahead of the 2004 presidential election, Republican registration numbers are down in Fresno, Tulare, Kings, Madera, Mariposa and Merced counties.
The GOP's decline is most obvious in Fresno County, where the losses have turned into an avalanche, even as the party gears up its efforts to keep the White House in GOP hands by electing Arizona Sen. John McCain as president.
The most recent voter registration numbers show the Democrats are closing the gap and are now fewer than 9,000 voters behind the Republicans.
At the peak in 2004, GOP registrations were ahead by more than 23,500 voters.
This will obviously help in AD-30, where Fran Florez is facing Danny Gilmore to keep Nicole Parra's seat in Democratic hands. But this is a nationwide and statewide shift that is generational in nature.
In Riverside County, Republicans have lost close to 34,000 voters since October 2004; in Orange County, an 18 percentage point Republican Party lead in 2004 is now at 14 percentage points.
Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser to the California Democratic Party, points out that Democrats picked up almost 75% of the more than 411,000 new voter registrations statewide between voter-registration reports filed Jan. 22 and May 19.
During that same time, close to 21% of new registrations were decline-to-state. Republicans picked up just 3.6% of the new voters.
I think that in particular, failed conservative policies have most adversely impacted Republican areas. The collapsing home market as a result of "inmates running the asylum" in the lending markets has hit the exurbs hard. Job loss is most keenly affecting the areas where jobs are newer to arrive. And of course high energy prices hurt those with long commutes. The exurbs, the fast-growing counties, the greatest strength for Republicans in 2004, are massively turning to the Democrats. That leaves Democrats with a noticeably bigger tent, and we have to recognize that as an issue moving forward, but for now, this cratering of Republican numbers is truly a sight, as stark a picture as it was right after Watergate in 1974.
