(Updated with new information at the bottom... - promoted by David Dayen)
The FEC reports are starting to come in for our candidates. I'll update them here, but the preliminary numbers are very strong.
• CA-50: Wow. Nick Leibham raised $413,000 in the third quarter, his best quarter of the cycle by a factor of four. With $334,000 cash on hand, he's going to be able to get his message out in the final weeks. As much as anything, this is why Leibham is Red To Blue. No word on Brian Bilbray's take yet. Leibham's latest ad uses a local war hero to hammer Bilbray for his vote against the new GI Bill, and it's very powerful, a great improvement over the attention-getting stunts from earlier in the year. I'm starting to feel good about this race.
• CA-45: Julie Bornstein raised around $102,000 in Q3, while Mary Bono Mack raised $245,000. The cash on hand situation shows Bono Mack with $462,548 in the bank compared to Bornstein's $179,308. That's not terrible, especially if the DCCC steps in with some outside help - they just added Bornstein to their emerging races list (along with Bill Durston in CA-03). Her latest ad, showing Bono Mack as a rubber-stamping bobblehead, is spot-on ("Do you think George Bush is right 92% of the time?")
• CA-52: In our toughest winnable race, Mike Lumpkin raised $107,000 and has $125,000 CoH, and Duncan D. Hunter raised $290,000 with $321,000 CoH. It'll take a monumental effort to win this one, but I don't consider it impossible. Lumpkin just got put on the D-Trip's Races To Watch page, along with Russ Warner (CA-26).
• CA-46: A nice writeup about canvassing for Debbie Cook from friend of the blog Andrew Davey (atdleft).
more money updates when they roll in...
UPDATE: Debbie Cook raised $114,000 and has $181,000 in the bank. Nothing yet from Dana Rohrabacher. Will she outraise him three quarters in a row?
UPDATE: More numbers:
CA-04: Charlie Brown: raised $539K, $456K cash on hand. GREAT numbers.
Tom McClintock: raised $978K, but spent a ton, and has only $94,000 left, with $110,000 in debts. He is BROKE. Brown has an infinite lead in CoH.
CA-03: Bill Durston: raised $149K, $145K CoH.
Dan Lungren: raised $173K (wow, Durston almost outraised him), $680K CoH. Dr. Bill is going to need some help.
CA-26: Russ Warner: raised $289K, which is great, but he's spent a lot early. He has $119K CoH.
David Dreier: raised $255K. Wow, Warner outraised Dreier. He still has $1.7 million in the bank, and he doesn't seem to be using the money. He only spent $345K in Q3. I don't know if it's for leadership purposes or what, but he has a hell of a war chest that he's not using.
CA-11: Jerry McNerney: raised $601K, $1.02 million CoH.
Dean Andal: raised $345K, with $850K CoH. Some prize recruit.
CA-50: Brian Bilbray: This was the number I was waiting for. He raised $262K and has $382K CoH. OK, Nick Leibham didn't just beat Bilbray in Q2, he destroyed him. And the cash on hand is virtually even. Wow.
CA-46: Dana Rohrabacher: Drum roll... raised $148K. OK, he beat Debbie Cook for once. The CoH is $497K, but much like Dreier, he's spent next to nothing. $35K in the quarter.
Overall, these are good numbers. Lots of our candidates have the resources they need. Keep up the pressure.
First, it was Duncan Hunter Sr. who would always refuse to debate. He was the incumbent Republican, in a very red district, so in a way that makes sense. But now his son is doing it too. Only his son isn't an incumbent, though he's trying to run like one. First, it was a debate hosted by the East County League of Women Voters, next, it was a debate on a conservative radio show, hosted by Rick Amato. Little Duncan Jr. apparently is terrified of facing off with his opponent, Commander Mike Lumpkin. This tactic of avoiding debates is undemocratic, and insult to the voters of the 52nd district. We deserve to hear from the candidates themselves.
It's a pattern, and an unfortunate one, of behaving exactly as his father does.
The good news is that my body clock may be naturally set on pacific time - always the night owl. California is as sunny as advertised, and my lack of exposure to any significant amount of sunshine in my usual daily routine left me vulnerable to sunburn on my 30 minute stroll around the San Diego pier on Monday.
This whirlwind trip to the coast provides me with a delightful fringe benefit. My youngest brother, Dave, and his family live in San Diego and are welcoming hosts to my visit. Dave was kind enough to take a few days off work to be my driver and tour guide around the area. Unlike me, Dave is usually on the far right hand of the political spectrum. We've had many direct conversations over the years about what he wants me to tell "those Democrats in Washington" about what they are doing wrong.
Lately his tune has changed. Don't get me wrong - Dave will never think of considering himself a Democrat. But like thousands of voters across the country, he has switched his voter registration from GOP to Independent. He continues to be skeptical about whether any politicians can be trusted to "do what's right."
Here's the best part of the story. Dave did some research on Mike Lumpkin (our endorsed candidate in California CD-52) before I got here. As an Army veteran, Dave was interested in Mike due to his military career. To my surprise, he wanted to wait at the campaign HQ so that he could meet Mike even though he lives outside the district (by less than 1 mile).
That's right, in this reddest of red California districts, Mike Lumpkin has managed to turn this into a competitive race. Having raised over $300,000 to date, a record for any Democratic candidate in the history of this district, the retired Navy SEAL is turning this into a serious contest.
According to a press release issued by the campaign, Mike has raised more than any Democratic candidate in the history of the 52nd district, raising more than $300,000. I'll take it as a great sign, though it is a long road to November. But it looks like this time around, we've got a serious candidate in this normally very red district. Keep up the great work, Mike!
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
By my count, we had nine local and federal candidates or elected officials from California joining us in Austin for Netroots Nation. So much for the adage that us dirty hippie bloggers are to be avoided at all costs. These candidates and politicians represent the foundation of a progressive alliance that can transform the party and the state over the next decade. And they all received varying degrees of support at the convention. Here is a brief roundup in alphabetical order:
1) Secretary of State Debra Bowen - Debra apparently accepted the invitation to appear on a panel about election reform by replying on Facebook. She is one of our favorites because of her progressive credentials, her commitment to election reform, and her accessibility. Far from dropping in for the panel and dropping out, she took time to hang out with plenty of us Caliticians. In fact, during the netroots candidate event, she was simply watching the proceedings when Christine Pelosi called her to the stage - it was not her intention to come as a candidate, but to just attend the conference. That said, there was a lot of talk among the California delegation about Bowen's plans for the future. At least four California convention-goers told me they would quit their jobs to work for Bowen if she sought higher office than the Secretary of State. She has a bright future and, judging from the reception she received, a national profile. She is one of our best hopes to get a real grassroots progressive into a legitimate position of power.
The bulk of the Calitics crew has found its way to Austin now (just waiting on Robert still), and California is out in full force throughout the convention. Aside from the editors, Dante Atkins and Todd Beeton are running around as well as frequent guest of the front page Paul Hogarth. Just returned from Howard Dean's launch of the national Register For Change bus tour geared towards registering new voters. Californians were all over the place there.
Charlie Brown was specifically mentioned a few times in Gov. Dean's speech. Debbie Cook was in attendance. California blogosphere alums like Matt Lockshin and Matt Ortega were moving through the crowd. Big name Californians who sometimes forget about us like Markos, George Lakoff, and Gina Cooper were working around the edges. Earlier today I ran into Steve Young in the hall, hung out with orangeclouds115 last night, and sat next to kid oakland (and Matt Lockshin) on the flight to Austin yesterday. Most of the Courage Campaign folks are here (myself, Juls and Eden), Bob Brigham is on his way. I've met Calitics lurkers and occasional commenters like tilthouse and reconnected with cmanaster. There's more to come with (for example) Mike Lumpkin due to stop in for the California caucus this afternoon (among others) and hosting a breakfast tomorrow morning.
What's really striking about all this is to note how many strong voices, incredible minds and game-changing candidates we have in California. Last year at the California Caucus we discussed the role of California as a national leader and incubator for positive change. Looking around Netroots Nation already I'm reminded of just how true that is and how potent California's brain trust is. For those who are here and for those who are reading I'll ask- how do we do a better job of fostering and harnessing all this?
UPDATE: We're going to be caucusing from 3-4:15 in room 18B. It'll be free-form, so bring your own topics and get ready to connect! From the budget to CDP reform to our chances for a 2/3 majority in the legislature and pickups in the House, there's a lot to discuss. We're also in the Netroots Nation agenda now. Please come by.
[UPDATE by Lucas] - We've got a number of special guests lined up now, but if you're reading this (even though it's NN), it might be too late to do anything about it.
[UPDATE: by Dave] - Mad props to Tracy Russo, online diva, who has helped confirm us in this spot. So tomorrow at 3, be there for the California caucus. Place to be determined, but check the online agenda, as it will shortly register up there.
For all of you who will be in Austin tomorrow for Netroots Nation, we're going to attempt to pull together a California caucus for Thursday afternoon, probably in the 3-4:15pm slot. I'll be posting info on "The Wall" outside 17A&B first thing Thursday morning (which means 9am), so be sure to check in for the finalized details (3pm slot is not set in stone and we need to find a room). Also, there's a whole mess of Californians who aren't likely to be checking in on this post (especially this late), so spread the word as you filter in to Austin and help pull together a great turnout.
Last year's California caucus was a great opportunity to hear from Congressional candidates (We have Mike Lumpkin, Debbie Cook, Charlie Brown, Russ Warner, and Steve Young attending NN at various points this year [I might be forgetting some]) discuss California's role as an incubator of national ideas (marriage equality is a great example this year), and discuss ways to better tie state and local politics to national activism.
This one is coming together last minute, so spreading the word will really drive how effective this can be. Hope to see everyone there!
UPDATE: Just to remind everyone, on Saturday night Calitics is one of the many hosts of the Alternet Book Party. I've confirmed today that Mayor Gavin Newsom will be joining us at the event to hang out, so it should be fun. Visit this link for more information.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I've tried to corral all their statements into my diary on Daily Kos, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Below the fold, I've modified the original diary to list just the California Democratic challengers running who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
(An interesting tack to take in the 52nd district - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Mike Lumpkin, retired Navy SEAL and candidate for the 52nd Congressional District, released the following press release this morning regarding yesterday's California Supreme Court decision on same sex marriage.
Yesterday the California Supreme Court overturned a voter-approved ban on gay marriage igniting a storm of divisive partisan reaction across the nation. Retired Navy SEAL Commander and 52nd Congressional District Candidate, Mike Lumpkin, sees the decision and subsequent reaction as an unfortunate yet expected diversion. "Election after election extremists drive this emotionally polarizing issue and marginalize the concerns of everyday Americans," said Lumpkin.
If the candidate is Mike Lumpkin, victory in November is not only possible, but perhaps likely. Granted, there is still a primary election in June, but at a forum last week hosted by the League of Women Voters, Vickie Butcher proved once again that she had no command of the issues. For much of the debate she seemed lost and unable to formulate a coherent answer for questions on healthcare, the economy and the war on terror. It was painful, at times, to watch her struggle with issues on which she clearly had not researched. Though a pleasant and accomplished educator, Vickie Butcher is simply over her head in this race. As dismal as her prospects for congressional success are, however, those of Mike Lumpkin not only give Democrats encouragement, but the best likelihood for victory since 1980 when a young Duncan Hunter edged out a victory against a Democrat incumbent by the name of Lionel Van Deerling.
Lumpkin is a retired Navy SEAL Commander with both combat and leadership experience. Those qualifications alone will earn him a significant number of cross-over votes, which will be necessary in the conservative 52nd. If that isn't enough, he is moderate and pragmatic on the issues and can pull off what Duncan Hunter was unable to do in his entire time as the district's representative-provide fair representation to all citizens of the district, not just those who support his campaign.
Lumpkin's campaign will not be an easy one, however. Though Duncan Hunter is relinquishing his seat, his name may still be on the ballot. Duncan D. Hunter, Jr. has moved back to California to keep the seat in the family, though not without a fight. His strongest opponent in the Republican primary-Brian Jones-is mounting an aggressive, but bleak grassroots campaign. Jones has not been intimidated by the Hunter dynasty and has repeatedly attacked Jr. for his lack of commitment to curb the use of earmarks.
Any of the Republican candidates will have to face a formidable Mike Lumpkin in the General. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which will help fund the top 29 congressional races in order to attain a super-majority in the House, has recently upgraded Lumpkin's campaign from 20 to 14 and considers his resume the best of any congressional candidate in an open-seat race. Additionally, a recent Rasmussen poll suggests 2008 is not going to be a good year for the Republicans. He's the underdog now, but keep an eye on Mike Lumpkin. His will be the race to watch.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
Right now there's a competition at VoteVets.org to award $5,000 to a veteran running for congress.
Two of their endorsed candidates are Californians: Lt. Col. Charlie Brown (CA-04) and Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin (CA-52). I'm biased*, but I think Charlie deserves this honor.
Not only is he a fantastic Democratic candidate who came within a hair of defeating John Doolittle in '06 - in a challenging district - but also because Charlie's campaign has been donating 5% of every campaign dollar he raises to veterans charities... and that's added up to a sizable sum that's going to three worthy groups very shortly. His devotion to veterans issues has been exemplary.
So if you have a spare moment to go over to VoteVets and cast a vote for Charlie, you'd be helping out a good man; Charlie Brown.
* Disclaimer: I do technical work on behalf of Charlie's campaign. I believe in the man.
I'd started this little project a little while back, wanting to learn more about the candidates for the CA-52 primary. So I sent each of the candidates 10 questions. Today it's Mike Lumpkin at bat! Mike has been kind enough to answer my questions, delayed through nobody's fault, but did involve a case of Pneumonia. (Hope you're feeling better, Chris!) So now, join me below the fold and learn a little more about Mike! And then visit his website to learn a little more, or if you want, his ActBlue page.
UPDATE: If you'd like to help Mike, go over to VoteVets, and vote for him. The winner of this online vote will receive $5000 from VoteVets PAC.
I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.
CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH
CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH I was looking at Q3 numbers. Brown has raised $692,000, and has $483,000 CoH. Big numbers for a non-incumbent.
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH
There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!
CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH
Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.
CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH
Very encouraging.
Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
With the San Francisco and Los Angeles Quarterlies ready to kick off tomorrow (watch out LA, I'm coming), let's take a pictoral tour through last week's San Diego event. Consider this an open thread, but focus on how great Calitics is :).
Some of the last revelers of the night (L to R: cmanaster, Ron Shepston, orangeclouds115, Major Danby, a very demonic looking Lucas O'Connor)
