I threw the rest below the fold. Here's the latest update with 65% reporting in CA-32:
JUDY CHU
DEM
11832
33.31
GIL CEDILLO
DEM
8800
24.78
EMANUEL PLEITEZ
DEM
5042
14.2
BETTY CHU
REP
3518
9.91
TERESA HERNANDEZ
REP
2684
7.56
DAVID A TRUAX
REP
1716
4.83
Though the lead continues to shrink, I don't think Cedillo can make up 3,000 votes with what's left out there. Judy just declared victory, I'm told.
UPDATE More votes in, and Chu upped her lead to 3,300 votes with 75% in. It's over. Congratulations to Judy Chu.
...In other races, Carmen Trutanich is going to win the City Attorney's race. He's up 54-46, by over 13,000 votes with 55% of the vote in, and he's been gaining with each update. What a terrible race run by Weiss.
As for Council District 5, it's Paul Koretz 53-47 over David Vahedi, though the spread is just 1,200 votes with 40% in. That's not quite over.
That one was getting long. So here's the deal. 1A-1E are going down.
17.4% precincts reporting
1A: 36.6% Yes, 63.4% No
1B: 40.1% Yes, 59.9% No
1C: 38.6% Yes, 61.4% No
1D: 38.0% Yes, 62.0% No
1E: 37.5% Yes, 62.5% No
1F: 76.4% Yes, 24.6% No
Just to make a point, in the city of Palmdale, a mildly conservative city in LA County, they have Measure B, a transient occupancy tax (hotels), on the ballot. Right now it's passing with 67% of the vote.
Don't tell me this is a repudiation of taxes. It's a repudiation of bad governance.
...Update: 21.9% precincts reporting
1A: 36.7% Yes, 63.3% No
1B: 40.2% Yes, 59.8% No
1C: 38.6% Yes, 61.4% No
1D: 38.0% Yes, 62.0% No
1E: 37.6% Yes, 62.4% No
1F: 76.4% Yes, 24.6% No
Interesting that the measure giving money owed to schools is doing best, ay?
... Brian checks in from the war room with the news that the AP called 1F for the Yes side. Yay! Now the legislators will be REALLY motivated!
Just a matter of time before 1A-1E get called.
...I'm done updating the ballot measures, as it's obvious what's going to happen there. So far LA County has yet to update any totals for the local and federal elections, so we wait.
...Arnold concedes: "We have heard from the voters and I respect the will of the people." Whew, for a second there I thought he was going to institute the spending cap anyway!
You know what he's intimating here, of course. He'll pull out his budget #2 and try to implement it. The May 20th strategy is upon us.
UPDATE by Brian: Check the flip for the No on 1A Press release about the results. Arnold is flying back tonight to have a Big 5 meeting tomorrow. Would love to be a fly on the wall for that one.
...just to update, there have been, um, no updates from the LA Registrar of voters on these local races. Here, pulled up from the bottom, are the results for the top six finishers, I assume among absentees, in CA-32 thus far.
JUDY CHU DEM 6,388 41.98
GIL CEDILLO DEM 2,628 17.27
BETTY CHU REP 1,938 12.74
EMANUEL PLEITEZ DEM 1,233 8.1
TERESA HERNANDEZ REP 1,202 7.9
DAVID A TRUAX REP 1,036 6.81
...Todd Beeton tweets in from Judy Chu HQ to say that people there feel good.
...Finally starting to get some more numbers from LA County.
City Attorney: Trutanich 52%, Weiss 48%. The spread is about 3,200 votes with 12% in.
5th District City Council: Koretz 53%, Vahedi 47%. The spread is about 700 votes with 10% in.
OK. So we'll start with a results thread here. Just to recap, in addition to the statewide special election, here are the other key races today, at least in the LA area:
City Attorney: This is a runoff election between Jack Weiss and Carmen Trutanich. This election got extremely nasty in the final weeks, although they pulled all their attack ads last night and went soft and cuddly for the stretch run. The low turnout probably favors Trutanich. If Antonio Villaraigosa cannot drag his pal Weiss across the finish line, then it speaks volumes about his ability to draw voters in what's supposed to be his local base.
LA City Council 5th District: This is another runoff between former Assemblyman Paul Koretz and neighborhood council leader David Vahedi. This happens to be a very engaged, well-off, activist district, so I would actually expect turnout to be decent, relatively speaking. Progressives have mobilized for Koretz, and most of the competitors in the first round primary endorsed him.
SD-26: Curren Price will be a state Senator by the end of the night, replacing Mark Ridley-Thomas. His Republican opponent is a rabbi, which rules, but I think he was outspent 300:1.
CA-32: This should be a very interesting race tonight, with Judy Chu, Gil Cedillo and Emanuel Pleitez the main competitors. Will Cedillo's nasty, negative strategy pay off? Did the late endorsers to Chu's campaign recognize a trend? Can Pleitez use social media politics to a good showing? We'll see.
...CapWeekly has a pre-analysis of their own for you to all read while we wait out the results. Anthony York thinks Schwarzenegger will tack hard right as a result of this defeat. He has no guiding political principle, so any port in a storm, I guess. I think York's reading the right tea leaves, and success or failure will depend on where the Democrats elected to reflect the will of the people will go.
...18.6% turnout reported for LA County. Remember, there were actual other elections on the ballot out here. Wow, that's just terrible.
1A: 39% Yes, 61% No
1B: 42% Yes, 58% No
1C: 40% Yes, 60% No
1D: 39% Yes, 61% No
1E: 39% Yes, 61% No
1F: 77% Yes, 23% No
The totals are about 1 million votes, presumably absentees at this point. If you are charitable and say that there will be 30% turnout, there are maybe 4-5 million votes left. So I'd say that 20% of the totals or so are in at the very least.
...Another huge dump of absentees. And 13% of precincts reporting:
1A: 37% Yes, 63% No
1B: 40% Yes, 60% No
1C: 39% Yes, 61% No
1D: 38% Yes, 62% No
1E: 38% Yes, 62% No
1F: 75% Yes, 25% No
...First results from CA-32 are in over at LA County's website. Early, but it looks good for Judy Chu. 9% reporting:
JUDY CHU DEM 6,388 41.98
GIL CEDILLO DEM 2,628 17.27
BETTY CHU REP 1,938 12.74
EMANUEL PLEITEZ DEM 1,233 8.1
TERESA HERNANDEZ REP 1,202 7.9
DAVID A TRUAX REP 1,036 6.81
Probably would be in better shape without Betty Chu in the race.
...17% now reporting, and the numbers are basically the same as before.
1A: 37% Yes, 63% No
1B: 40% Yes, 60% No
1C: 39% Yes, 61% No
1D: 38% Yes, 62% No
1E: 38% Yes, 62% No
1F: 75% Yes, 25% No
...briefly on the other elections: with 10% in, Curren Price has 69% of the vote. Carmen Trutanich leads Jack Weiss 51-48 with about 10% of the vote in. And Paul Koretz leads 53-47 with 10% in. These last two will probably go all night.
...Debra Bowen tweets that these are all vote-by-mail ballots reporting right now. If, as expected, they are 40-50% of the final total, everyone can go to bed. Except for Jack Weiss, Carmen Trutanich, Paul Koretz and David Vahedi.
Well, this is it. After three months of argument, threats, projections, facts and figures, the special election on the budget has finally arrived. Voters now get to decide the fate of six ballot measures that will impact the near-term budget deficit and the long-term manner of budgeting in the state. Well, a FEW of the voters get to decide. I popped by my local polling place just to see the crowd size - I already voted absentee - and let's just say that the traffic was, er, light.
So here are a few lessons as we watch the results tonight:
• Money Isn't Everything - This race may finally put to rest that axiom of California politics about cash being king. The No side - and mind you, groups only raised money opposing for certain ballot measures - raised about $4.5 million dollars, all told. The Yes side raised over $26 million. Despite this 6.5:1 advantage, most polls show the first five measures on the ballot, the ones that actually affect the budget, going down to defeat. Prop. 1C, which had NO money against it and the state Democratic Party along with millions from G Tech (the makers of lottery machines) behind it, has consistently polled the worst among all measures. The No on 1A folks used a strategy that conserved dollars but did get out the message, in particular through Web and Google ads. But they were obliterated on the air and through mailers, and based on the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger skipped town and Budget Reform Now doesn't even have a headquarters tonight, it appeared not to matter.
• No Credible Messengers - The main reason these ballot measures are poised to fail is that, in general terms, absolutely no politician in this state has the trust of the people. Nobody could sell the message on the Yes side because nobody could even sell themselves. I've heard about internal polls with the legislature in single digits and the Governor below 30%. We have a crisis of confidence in California, and that stands to reason, considering the extent to which process has overwhelmed personality, making the state largely ungovernable without major revisions to that process.
• Take The Message You Want - The Yacht Party will certainly try to paint this as a victory for their anti-tax jihad, and it's highly likely that the dwindling state political media, and even possibly the Democratic leadership, will believe them. However, regardless of conservatives being "emboldened," the fact is that progressives opposed the special election for very specific reasons, and Democratic leaders must reconcile with that as well. The constraints on governance here in California are undeniable. And yet the time has come to stop finding ways around the mountain of structural problems and pick up the shovel and start digging through the mountain. It won't take overnight, and in the meantime there are solutions - some painful, some creative - that the leadership will have to take. But the message from the electorate, including those that sat this race out in anger or frustration, is that people don't want gimmicks and spending caps and service cuts. They want a functioning government and they don't see one, and they will continue to punish these people who call themselves leaders until they start acting like it.
• Musical Chairs - Curren Price will win election to SD-26 today, shrinking the need for Republican votes to reach the 2/3 threshold in the Senate to 2. At the same time, this will increase the need for Republican votes to reach the 2/3 threshold in the Assembly to 4. There are more targeted seats in the Assembly, so in the short term this is a slight net win. But it's obviously not optimal, and that Assembly seat may not get filled, if the SD-26 odyssey is any guide, until late fall.
UPDATE by Brian: As pointed out in the comments, with 100% reporting, it looks like the May 19 election will feature a runoff between Dem. Asm. Curren Price, Republican Nachum Shifren, and P&F Cindy Varela Henderson. Price is the prohibitive favorite, but the failure to attain 50% delays the special election merry-go-round for another few weeks.
As of 10:30pm, the results at the Secretary of State's site only have 15% of the vote in. Basically, Asm. Curren Price is looking like he'll win (although Mike Davis is only behind by about 1,000 votes right now), but not by enough to avoid a runoff. So we will have to wait until May 19 to have a full complement of State Senators, at which point we'll have one less Assemblymember and will need a special election for Price's seat. And the whole thing never ends.
Anyway, post results here.
as of 10:30pm:
Candidate Votes Percent
Mike Davis (Dem) 2,968 23.44%
Saundra Davis (Dem) 840 6.63%
Cindy Varela Henderson (P&F) 244 1.93%
Curren D. Price, Jr. (Dem) 3,996 31.56%
Nachum Shifren (Rep) 1,910 15.08%
Robert Cole (Dem) 1,883 14.87%
Mervin Leon Evans (Dem) 76 0.60%
Jonathan Friedman (Dem) 745 5.88%
• Polls close in the SD-26 election between Asms. Curren Price and Mike Davis shortly. We'll update with election results upon their release.
• CalPERS/STRS are attempting to be the lead plaintiffs against Bank of America in the Merril Lynch bonus scandal. Both organizations have been outspoken advocates for sound corporate governance.
• Imagine this, a bipartisan bill in Sacramento! With Dave Jones, Nathan Fletcher and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner all aboard! And the cause is noble! Basically, this bill would allow workers at small businesses with under 20 employees to be eligible for federal subsidies to COBRA in the same way that workers in firms with more than 20 employees are eligible under the economic recovery plan. The bill is AB23, and should pass out of the Assembly Health Committee today.
• OC Progressive takes a look at cuts to OCTA, the county's bus service. Unfortunately, at a time when we should be investing heavily in public transportation, services are being slashed throughout the state.
• Sen. Tony Strickland (Yacht Party-Thousand Oaks) may be able to ball, but that picture of him in uniform for the minor league Los Angeles Lightning, for whom he will actually play May 2 for a one-game special in his district, should get him disqualified from a political career. Memo to politicians - lay off the tank tops.
• Asm. Mike Davis has released a get to know you video in his race for the 26th Senate seat, the seat vacated by Mark Ridley-Thomas when he won the LA County Supervisor's race over Bernard Parks. His main opponent is Asm. Curren Price. The election is tomorrow.
• Local governments who took losses during the dissolution of Lehman Brothers want a bailout of their own. Apparently caveat emptor no longer applies as we head toward a slippery slope of bailouts for everyone. Yes, multiple investors lost their shirts on Lehman, through no fault of their own, but I fail to see how that demands a cash transfer from the Treasury.
• A new study links student obesity and proximity between schools and fast-food restaurants. I hope that study didn't cost too much, because it's completely intuitive. And I have no problem with urban planners who take this information into account when zoning areas around schools. There's a public health responsibility for government here.
• California is going to try to sell about $4 billion of bonds this week. It's not a particularly huge sale, but the response should be telling. Joel Fox notes that if we have problems selling these, don't hold your breath on the lottery securitization. With the recent bond rating decrease, they won't be an easy sell. Although, first-day sales yielded about $2.4 billion, almost half of the overall goal. John Myers examines why. I'd guess that investors know they'll get a great yield because they're demanding a high interest rate because of the state's fiscal troubles. With interest rates near zero, these are some of the best deals out there. But more bonds sold means more future payouts that hit taxpayers' bottom line.
• Finally, our condolences go out to the families of the Oakland Police officers gunned down this weekend. The incident is a profound tragedy for the City of Oakland and the entire state.
"Curren Price has been a strong voice for working families in the legislature," said California Labor Fed honcho Art Pulaski. "In these tough economic times we need leaders like Price in the Senate to protect workers and help us get our economy moving."
His main competitor is Asm. Mike Davis, but for the time being, Price looks to have all of the major chips right now. I've not heard any big tales of grassroots support that would overwhelm the institutional support. That being said, this election will likely be pretty low turnout, so you never know.
Either way, the carousel will go around again when either of them takes the seat.
Something for the legislature to read while they're on LOCKDOWN.
• We're in a special session of the legislature, separate from their normal work. So while the Yacht Party stonewalls and both sides bicker, they are making $173 a day for the privilege, with the current total at $128,000 and counting. Good work if you can get it.
• Stockton, Merced and Modesto were dead last nationally in home prices, with homes in all three metro areas losing at least 30% of their value in the first nine months of the year. The Central Valley is just getting buried. If you want to know where the rest of the state (and the nation) is headed, look there.
• The state's Healthy Families program, California's contribution to S-CHIP, was on the verge of becoming extinct until First 5 provided a $16 million dollar cash infusion, allowing their enrollment to remain open through the end of the fiscal year in June. This is of course one of the programs on the Yacht Party's chopping block. Because who likes healthy kids?
Today's GOP is a very different party, a hard-line group of self-insulated ideologues, more like a political cult than like an inclusive party that stretches its core principles to be inviting to people at or beyond that core.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
• SD-26: Mark Ridley-Thomas, now an LA County Supervisor, has endorsed Assemblymember Curren Price to fill his seat in the upcoming special election, the primary of which is scheduled for March 24. Price is expected to be challenged by Assemblymember Mike Davis. Either of them winning would trigger ANOTHER special election for their vacant Assembly seat. And on and on.
• CA-31: Ben Smith is reporting that Xavier Becerra will turn down the position of US Trade Representative. When there was a two-week lull after the rumor leaked with no announcement, I figured as much. All the more reason for Hilda Solis to run for Governor, as the Vice-Chair of the House Dem caucus won't be opening up.
