Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Despite the unwillingness of our Democratic Congress (Rep. Wexler notwithstanding) to do their Constitutional duty to hold the criminals in the Bush Administration accountable for their actions, the major sacrifices made by and injuries done to Valerie Plame, Joe Wilson and their colleagues and associates will not soon be forgotten by those of us who care deeply about our country. This nation owes them a debt of gratitude for their service and their willingness to tell the truth in spite of incredible hostility and pressure from a corrupt and utterly immoral White House and its cronies.
Those progressive patriots of you who live in the Southern California area will have the opportunity to meet Joe Wilson himself at a fundraiser in Beverly Hills tomorrow (Thursday) at 6:30pm for the equally courageous Netroots candidate Ron Shepston. I'll be there as well, for what that's worth!
I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:
• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:
David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.
"I would have voted differently on this bill," said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California's 26th district. "It's important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that's why I'm running for Congress."
Russ Warner's eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.
Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.
• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).
• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.
• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.
• CA-03: Bill Durston may be unopposed in the June 3 primary, but he's running very hard and trying to pick up as many decline-to-state voters as possible. He's actually running a GOTV operation. The gambit here is to prove to donors and the political establishment that CA-03 is competitive. I also think it makes sense just as practice for the general and for name recognition.
• CA-04: The Club for Growth, whose record this year in primaries is actually a little mixed, has released an ad attacking Doug Ose in his race against Tom McClintock. There's plenty of outside money on both sides in this one.
• CA-42: Communications Workers of America, Southern California Council has endorsed Ron Shepston. It's somewhat notable considering that Ed Chau got the Cal Labor Fed endorsement.
Anything else you're hearing, please put it in the comments. This is an open-source elections thread.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
From the beginning, this campaign has been about the netroots taking the next step to becoming the mainstream. You've been fantastic, but we need more if we are to win the primary. If we implement the plan below we will win and set the stage to win in November. We need to make a lot of noise and talk to a lot of people. Not enough people know about us and even fewer understand why we are doing this.
Without the money, there is no campaign - so I'm not going to beat around the bush. We need money; we need it now. We need your help. If you believe in candidates emerging from the netroots, like I know you do, then please contribute.
Click on this button to go to ActBlue.
Jump below for a story and some details on how your money will be spent.
The Courage Campaign today became the first organization to push out the Responsible Plan to its members. We sent out an email to our list this morning (see it on the flip) encouraging our members to endorse the Responsible Plan and almost as importantly, talk to candidates they know about endorsing the plan.
Over 50 candidates, including Debbie Cook, Ron Shepston, Cheryl Ede, Bill Hedrick and Mary Pallant here in California have endorsed the Responsible Plan. It is key that we get your help to continue to build momentum for the plan. That means getting as many people and candidates to endorse, so sign it and pass the link on to your friends.
This is about changing the conversation about the war. When people ask what we are going to do about the war, this is our plan. It is our roadmap to both ending the war and taking care of our veterans. Rather than using the Republican frame on the war, focused mostly on the tactical, i.e. the surge as a strategy, we need to take control of the narrative. Promoting the Responsible Plan is one way to do that.
Framing the debate is only one site of the equation. The movement behind the Responsible Plan also about electing Democrats who will run strongly on the war and end it when they take office. We need more and better Democrats.
(I was happy to co-host this event last night. After a day where there was a lot of sturm und drang among the grassroots, what I remember about this week is the incredible events I've been fortunate enough to witness, both with Tim Goodrich and last night with Darcy Burner. The grassroots is strong when we are all working for incredible candidates who can bring about progressive change. - promoted by David Dayen)
I met Darcy Burner for the second time last night.
It was pretty exciting, meeting a future president. If you have to ask why I would say that, why, then, you haven't had the pleasure of meeting Darcy Burner.
Mary Pallant's support of the Responsible Plan marks the fifth Congressional challenger in California to endorse. At Calitics, we feel that this is a plan that not only makes sense for Congressional candidates but progressive organizations and grassroots groups as well. Therefore, the editorial board of Calitics proudly endorse the Responsible Plan and urge all candidates for federal office in the state to follow suit, be they challengers or incumbents.
Given the current situation in Iraq, leaving 60,000 or 80,000 troops to babysit the Iraqis will do about as much as having 160,000 troops do the same; in other words, nothing at all (Russ Feingold understands this). There is no military solution and the goals of the surge have not been met; indeed what meager gains have been established have now essentially vanished, as Basra, Baghdad and beyond grow more violent. Until the fundamental question - whether a continued presence in Iraq is making us safer now and in the future - is addressed, we're doing nothing but spinning our wheels. Keeping troops in the region to try and put a lid on violence until George Bush is safely tucked away creates a huge moral hazard which actually increases the potential for chaos.
The Responsible Plan reflects the opinion of a significant wing of the Democratic Party which is simply not willing to wait around anymore while the leadership in Washington tries to come up with a coherent endgame strategy. Well over 50 Congressional challengers have endorsed the plan, understanding that a comprehensive strategy to end the war and repair the broken institutions that enabled it not only makes political sense but is absolutely vital to our national security. Ilan Goldenberg sums up the plan nicely.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
(Disclosure - I've just signed on as Ron Shepston's netroots coordinator. And I'm proud that he's the first California challenger to endorse the Repsonsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. Ron is in a contested primary and needs your help to continue the leadership he's shown in supporting this plan all the way to Congress. Please consider making a donation to his campaign today. - promoted by David Dayen)
I was working in Brisbane, Australia on 9/11. I'd long past gotten over jet lag but something woke me in the middle of the night. When I turned on the TV to CNN International and saw the graphic "America Under Attack" my first thought was that it was simply more media over-the-top hype. As I watched, I saw that was not the case and my anger grew at whoever it was who attacked us. I'd never felt so much anger in my life and I doubt that ever will again. I called friends and family to "be" with them, but I knew that I couldn't, not only because of the distance, but because all air travel was suspended.
Ron Shepston, the blogger and aerospace engineer who is challenging Dirty Gary Miller, is having his first house party in Pasadena this Saturday, from 7pm to 9pm, at a supporter's residence:
449 N Catalina Ave, #102
Pasadena, CA 91106
A $10 contribution is encouraged, but not required. Please show up if you can to support the Democratic challenger in CA-42!
If you have a Facebook profile, here is the event page. Go ahead and invite all your friends too.
disclosure: I am a member of the "brain trust" of Ron Shepston for Congress.
My column at Capitol Weekly about Ron Shepston's experiences during the Southern California wildfires is up here. It's really a pretty amazing story.
As the flames closed in, and evacuation was recommended, Ron and his family packed up. One of his neighbors, a 37-year retired battalion chief with the Orange County Fire Authority named Mike, had plenty of experience with fighting fires, and with the limited official resources, he thought he could help protect the community if the fire engulfed the canyon. The problem was that his body was beaten from years of service. After escorting his family to safer ground, Ron told Mike he was willing to help. "I'll be your legs," he said.
Ignoring a mandatory evacuation, Ron and Mike went to work, setting up hoses, hooking into hydrants, watering down wood structures, and clearing fuel away from danger. They also provided assistance to federal, state and local firefighters about prime lookout spots to view the progress of the fire, and the local terrain. This lasted for 10 days, a non-stop firefighting effort in an attempt to protect the community. "I could hear the roar of the flames on the ridge," Ron said, "There were flames rising 100 feet."
Go throw me a bone and read the whole thing. There's some discussion of Orange County's failure to protect its residents by gutting firefighting operations, as well as the stark contrast between a leader like Shepston and Gary Miller, who has yet to make even one public statement about the fires. This will be an issue in the campaign.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
(Look, this has to be promoted, despite the author's wish that it not be. A congressional candidate volunteering to head out in the woods and battle a raging fire? Is there any better expression of leadership? This should be on CNN. - promoted by David Dayen)
(This is a x-post from Daily Kos; accordingly, this was written for a less California-centric audience, but it should be OK here.)
Many people have contacted me over the past few days asking me whether Ron Shepston (aka CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream on DKos), whose campaign for Congress I'm managing, is OK. Ron lives at the top of Silverado Canyon, in the Silverado 92676 zip code that has taken much damage from the Santiago Canyon fire. I last spoke to Ron on Monday morning when I was at the airport preparing to fly back from Chicago; I encouraged him to post an update for people who knew he was in the area and might worry. Since that noon PDT comment, neither I nor anyone from the campaign had heard from him, which is why I haven't been able to reply to questions.
I just spoke to his wife, Belinda. He's OK. He dropped Belinda off from the danger area and then went back in. His friend and neighbor is an ex-fire chief living in the Upper Canyon, and if I understand correctly Ron is involved in efforts to protect the canyon from fire jumping over from Modjeska Canyon.
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
With the San Francisco and Los Angeles Quarterlies ready to kick off tomorrow (watch out LA, I'm coming), let's take a pictoral tour through last week's San Diego event. Consider this an open thread, but focus on how great Calitics is :).
Some of the last revelers of the night (L to R: cmanaster, Ron Shepston, orangeclouds115, Major Danby, a very demonic looking Lucas O'Connor)
I won't able to do blog roundups until week after next -- any blog roundups between now and then will be created by the far busier members of the editorial staff, so make sure to thank them.
We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it's time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney's "I'm a moderate" comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.
But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Lucas posted a little bit about the beginning of the YearlyKos Convention, but there's a little bit of California here. In fact, over 200 Californians are registered for this convention. Hey, that's not too bad considering that Chicago is a long flight away from California.
So, Kid Oakland worked really hard to get the regional caucuses set up, and Dave and Julia organized the California caucus. So, thanks! We spent the bulk of the time introducing ourselves, but that's pretty darn useful. Listen, Blogs are great, but at some point we need to get to know each other in the real world.
We also talked briefly about how important California's legislature and legislation is to the nation as a whole. Whether that's for better (the catalytic convertor) or for worse (the anti-tax bug of the late 1970s), California matters. Finally, we wrapped up with a few minutes from some of our great California candidates for Congress. Charlie Brown, Steve Young, Ron Shepston, and Russ Warner each told us a little bit about themselves. And hey, looky we even have a picture with the four of them (thanks, Dante!).
