The Field Poll on the presidential race is expected out like...um a few minutes. I'm hearing right now that the race is now within the margin of error. If this is true, which at this point I am not able to confirm, this would be a tremendous showing of momentum for the Illinois Senator. Senator Clinton has dominated the polling in the state since well, forever.
Apparently, this was on the KTVU news at 10 here in San Francisco. I don't know if that means they violated the embargo or what not, but if you saw KTVU news at 10 just now, help us out here. The numbers I heard from a friend who saw it on Ch. 2 here in SF said that it was running at Clinton 36, Obama 34, Undecided 18.
At any rate, hard data will be all over the California media within a couple of hours, and likely posted at Field's archives shortly.
UPDATE: Yup, those numbers were correct. Other/Already voted also had 12%. You can now grab the details here (PDF). As CarlsbadDem points out in the comments, this is a huge surge for Obama, and a slight downward trend for Clinton. It looks like the key will be the number of DTSers who vote in the Democratic primary:
Registered Democrats, who the poll finds are accounting for 87% of those likely to vote in the Democratic primary, favor Clinton by six points, 37% to 31%. However, non-partisans who represent another 13% of likely Democratic primary voters now favor Obama by a five to three margin (54% to 32%).
Also of note in this poll are the general election matchups. They have Obama leading McCain 47-40, but Clinton at only 45-43. This is a marked difference from the December poll which showed very large leads (and slightly larger for Clinton) against McCain. I'm not sure why this is the case, other than perhaps McCain wasn't considered really viable in December before the New Hampshire primary.
I also want to point out that if you have marked your VBM ballot for a candidate that has dropped out, just bring your ballot to your regular precinct. They should just tear it up or mark it void and then give you a fresh regular ballot.
Congratulations to Hillary Clinton for winning New Hampshire. But there is much more at stake to this horse race than the skim surface of the campaign mechanics the mainstream media tells.
Though Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire, her back door dealings have already seem to have secured her a position in the White House, barely trying.
Just like the general election where the electoral college is the only vote that matters, the primaries have a similar system that parallels the electoral college in process. It's call the delegates and superdelegates.
Here's an explanation of what they are and how they're selected. They aren't voted for at all:
Clinton's campaign co-chair is Terri McAuliffe, who works and is very influential in the DNC. He was able to lock all of the DNC for Hillary anyways. What is your opinion of this?
Wabooom. Kabbbam. Iowa cauces...couple of thoughts:
John Edwards' number rounds up to 30, Hillary Clinton's rounds down to 29 (by 3/100ths of a point - ouch). There is a reason why $29.99 appears far less than $30.00
With same day registration, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden calling no joy, and fierce Baracketting, New Hampshire looks like another upset win for Barack Obama on Tuesday
This means Nevada will become Hillary's first potential win. This puts California boots in play with the ease of traveling to Vegas/Henderson or Reno
Expect this to put a f-ton of small dollar money heading to Anyone But Clinton -- I think Obama could best $12 million by New Hampshire
Clinton isn't in the top 3 on the huge facebook poll by the League of Young Voters, Moveon, et al.
The squabble to be first in deciding the nation's fate is intensifying. Early states are cleverly inching their primaries in a race to secure voting influence for their citizens. By the end of February, we'll know who the presidential finalists are before more than half the nation gets a chance to vote, let alone meet the candidates. Sound Fair?
The heavily frontloaded primary schedule does all of America a disservice. Leaving the power to decide who the next president of the America can be to a handful of people is just not right. The demographic make up of all the early primary state, even combined, does not accurately represent the American population. For instance, isn't New Hampshire the third wealthiest state in the nation?
With less than a month left, there seems like there's no hope. The Washington Post reports that the American people are being tempted by pessimism, and are losing faith in our political system. But, not to fear.
Register to host a caucus at www.nationalcaucus.com and get involved.
It seems like there's no hope but to accept the circumstances. However, I came across this website, the National Presidential Caucus, that looks to give voters a fair chance to voice their opinions before the primaries kick off. It's not a national primary or anything like that, don't let the name mislead you.
Here's how it works:
1) Post your caucus online
2) Meet offline with some friends, neighbors, whomever to discuss candidates and issues
3) Post your results from your discussions online
It's as simple as that. It's really just an effort to encourage and empower civic engagement and voter opinions. So why not...
How can we claim to go across seas to build a democracy, when our own political system at home is suffering? Get involved. sign up to host a caucus in your neighborhood today.
Orange County animator's creation becomes the latest 2008 presidential hopeful
As America's elected leaders become increasingly less trustworthy, is it any wonder that people turn to animated characters like Lisa Simpson for their daily dose of truth? How often have you heard logic and reason (albeit a bit profane) within a South Park episode? Nowadays whenever we hear our leaders speak, our first inclination is to question their sincerity. An animated character, however, can voice opinions no human would dare to express with conviction and tenacity. Well a new animated character is now challenging our nation's political integrity by becoming the latest to join the 2008 race for the White House: Introducing -- "Sheep".
Being a non-human objective observer, Sheep offers a refreshingly impartial worldview. His inspiring message is delivered through his website, www.Sheep2008.com, which features video, music and news commentary. Issues addressed include gay rights, Iraq, health care, the environment and homeland security.
Sheep's believability is further enhanced by his half-human, half-animal appearance -- due to an experimental animal cloning mishap. Along with his "hybrid" constituents, he shares his vision for a nation that has too long been dominated by humans.
Sheep's campaign website includes a video documentary on his life experiences; a video series on America off the campaign trail; original politically-charged music; and warrantless wiretapping before a live audience. News headlines and multimedia programs are updated regularly. Free music downloads and campaign materials are also available.
The mainstream media has discovered Vote Hope, and it seems like they can't quite get their heads around it.
While we are thankful for the publicity (any press is good press as long as they get the url right!), it's clear that it's going to be a little difficult for some people to grasp an independent campaign that isn't designed to ruthlessly smear someone. News stories published in two places today, both the L.A. Times and MSNBC's "First Read", are focusing on the past history of negative independent campaigns, rather than on the reality of what Vote Hope is trying to do in California.
Why is there a big gap in 2008 California Presidential Democratic Primary in the two most recent poll results?
Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the Democratic presidential candidates in California, with four in 10 likely primary voters saying they will support her, according to a Field Poll released Tuesday.
That is a higher level of support than she has registered in national polling or in a recent statewide poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, which found her leading with 35 percent.
There is a new Wes Clark video that is very unusual at YouTube. Instead of talking about a candidate, in this case Wes Clark, it speaks directly to Wes Clark. I hope this really does go viral. I feel it has a message that Wes Clark needs to hear.
Beyond that impact on Clark himself I think this is the beginning of the ability of a group, individual or campaign to create their own channel that will talk directly to the candidate or from the candidate to the public...with no press editing. I'll be posting more on this topic as it can impact local, regional, state and federal races.
The full channel name is YouTube/Polcampaign. There is only one video there at least for the moment. I will be putting this on my blogs. I hope other blog owners and members do the same.
This is not a 100% declaration of support for a Clark candidacy on my part.While most know I was heavily involved in the Draft and Campaign, I'm trying to keep an Open Mind for a couple of our declared candidates as they make their case. But I want to listen to Wes Clark too. I firmly believe he will elevate the campaign once in the game. And I think this video may help in that effort.
If Wes Clark again gets a firm demonstration of his built-in support perhaps it will impact his decision making. While most of us expect him to run, based on his own comments, I believe this is a time to demonstrate his support. Circulating this video is one easy way to make the support obvious..and elevate the campaign discussion at the same time. A great President can only help California, the US and the world. I'm all for having all the good people in the race!
[Originally published at The Political Dogfight as part one of four this is a slightly edited version.]
I seriously question the value of the new Primary System developed by the DNC then jumped on by other opportunistic states. February 5, 2008 looms large as a result of these changes.
David Brooks recently had a column about the advice he had for Republican candidates. It was his contention that all the primaries on Feb. 5, 2008 wouldn't be the decisive ones. He still thought the traditional first three primaries would set the media tone. And he thought the Media tone would set the race on the first Tuesday of Feb.
While I don't agree that the first three primaries will decide the race, and I don't agree with Brooks in general, I think he is absolutely right about a slightly different topic: Media Tone
Think of the situation today as seen in the daily papers and on the news programs! According to them there are only 3 real candidates in the race: Senator Clinton, Senator Obama and John Edwards...and John Edwards is coming in a weak third in terms of media coverage. (Or his was until the unfortunate announcement of his wife's recurring health issues.]
This issue of Media Tone/Media Noice is the real problem.
As America's elected leaders become increasingly less trustworthy, is it any wonder that people turn to animated characters like Lisa Simpson for their daily dose of truth? How often have you heard logic and reason (albeit a bit profane) within a South Park episode? Nowadays whenever we hear our leaders speak, our first inclination is to question their sincerity. An animated character, however, can voice opinions no human would dare to express with conviction and tenacity. Well a new animated character is now challenging our nation's political integrity by becoming the latest to join the 2008 race for the White House: Introducing -- "Sheep".