Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has released a new poll showing Nick Leibham well-positioned to knock off xenophobe Brian Bilbray in CA-50.
A building Democratic wave is about to hit San Diego beaches. The campaign of former prosecutor Nick Leibham is surging, and Leibham is now in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray, 42 to 44 percent.
Key Findings
Leibham launched an extremely effective and aggressive mail and television advertising blitz against Bilbray that features a four-star general criticizing Bilbray's vote against the G.I. Bill. As a result, Leibham has pulled into a statistical tie with the incumbent (42 to 44 percent) after trailing by 19 points (35 to 54 percent) as recently as August.
Barack Obama is also running strong in California's 50th Congressional District, leading John McCain by double digits (53 to 41 percent). The environment is now ripe for Democratic victories in a district George W. Bush won by 11 points - twice. Concerns about the economy dominate the political landscape, President Bush is more unpopular than ever, and five out of six voters think the country is off on the wrong track.
Leibham's strong position is due to his appeal beyond Democratic base voters. He currently wins four out of five (79 percent) Democrats, while Bilbray wins three out of four (75 percent) of Republicans. The biggest difference, however, is that Leibham holds a 16-point advantage among voters not aligned with either party (48 to 32 percent)
Democrats have been coming close in this seat ever since the Duke-Stir, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, was sent to jail in 2006. Francine Busby lost a special election and then the general election to Bilbray. The third time may be the charm.
You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham's (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.
This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the '06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What's worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can't afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can't afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in '06.
This is particularly acute in CA-50. Leibham beat Bilbray in fundraising in the third quarter, and they are almost even in cash on hand. Which means that, barring a life raft from the national party, Bilbray is largely on his own. And he doesn't have much to run on. Here he is whining about that powerful ad from Leibham supporter Joe Hoar, a retired Marine General, which ripped Bilbray for voting against the new GI Bill:
Bilbray said he was one of the GI Bill's original co-sponsors, but voted against it after congressional Democrats loaded it up with extraneous goodies, including a "massive tax increase" and a foreign aid package for Africa and Mexico.
"That's the kind of cynical tactics we said 'no' to," the Carlsbad Republican said. "We forced it to come back as a clean bill and we were able to pass it and it was signed into law in June."
Actually, it wasn't a clean bill at all, it was folded into an Iraq appropriation. And he objected to it initially because it was funded by a tax on millionaires.
Liebham supporters have put up an attack website called Wrong Way Bilbray highlighting his votes. Now that the campaign has settled into attacking Bilbray on the issues, with the Democratic wind at their backs, they are gaining traction.
And more than CA-50, what we're seeing is an across the board re-evaluation of Republican incumbents, with multiple GOPers in trouble.
(Updated with new information at the bottom... - promoted by David Dayen)
The FEC reports are starting to come in for our candidates. I'll update them here, but the preliminary numbers are very strong.
• CA-50: Wow. Nick Leibham raised $413,000 in the third quarter, his best quarter of the cycle by a factor of four. With $334,000 cash on hand, he's going to be able to get his message out in the final weeks. As much as anything, this is why Leibham is Red To Blue. No word on Brian Bilbray's take yet. Leibham's latest ad uses a local war hero to hammer Bilbray for his vote against the new GI Bill, and it's very powerful, a great improvement over the attention-getting stunts from earlier in the year. I'm starting to feel good about this race.
• CA-45: Julie Bornstein raised around $102,000 in Q3, while Mary Bono Mack raised $245,000. The cash on hand situation shows Bono Mack with $462,548 in the bank compared to Bornstein's $179,308. That's not terrible, especially if the DCCC steps in with some outside help - they just added Bornstein to their emerging races list (along with Bill Durston in CA-03). Her latest ad, showing Bono Mack as a rubber-stamping bobblehead, is spot-on ("Do you think George Bush is right 92% of the time?")
• CA-52: In our toughest winnable race, Mike Lumpkin raised $107,000 and has $125,000 CoH, and Duncan D. Hunter raised $290,000 with $321,000 CoH. It'll take a monumental effort to win this one, but I don't consider it impossible. Lumpkin just got put on the D-Trip's Races To Watch page, along with Russ Warner (CA-26).
• CA-46: A nice writeup about canvassing for Debbie Cook from friend of the blog Andrew Davey (atdleft).
more money updates when they roll in...
UPDATE: Debbie Cook raised $114,000 and has $181,000 in the bank. Nothing yet from Dana Rohrabacher. Will she outraise him three quarters in a row?
UPDATE: More numbers:
CA-04: Charlie Brown: raised $539K, $456K cash on hand. GREAT numbers.
Tom McClintock: raised $978K, but spent a ton, and has only $94,000 left, with $110,000 in debts. He is BROKE. Brown has an infinite lead in CoH.
CA-03: Bill Durston: raised $149K, $145K CoH.
Dan Lungren: raised $173K (wow, Durston almost outraised him), $680K CoH. Dr. Bill is going to need some help.
CA-26: Russ Warner: raised $289K, which is great, but he's spent a lot early. He has $119K CoH.
David Dreier: raised $255K. Wow, Warner outraised Dreier. He still has $1.7 million in the bank, and he doesn't seem to be using the money. He only spent $345K in Q3. I don't know if it's for leadership purposes or what, but he has a hell of a war chest that he's not using.
CA-11: Jerry McNerney: raised $601K, $1.02 million CoH.
Dean Andal: raised $345K, with $850K CoH. Some prize recruit.
CA-50: Brian Bilbray: This was the number I was waiting for. He raised $262K and has $382K CoH. OK, Nick Leibham didn't just beat Bilbray in Q2, he destroyed him. And the cash on hand is virtually even. Wow.
CA-46: Dana Rohrabacher: Drum roll... raised $148K. OK, he beat Debbie Cook for once. The CoH is $497K, but much like Dreier, he's spent next to nothing. $35K in the quarter.
Overall, these are good numbers. Lots of our candidates have the resources they need. Keep up the pressure.
Things are happening very quickly in the most hotly contested campaigns in California. Here's an update:
• CA-04: Watching himself falling behind in the race to replace John Doolittle, perennial candidate Tom McClintock decided to borrow one of his predeccesor's smear campaigns and release an ad claiming that Charlie Brown dishonored servicemen by appearing at an anti-war rally.
The idea that wearing a camouflage jacket constitutes being "in uniform" is ridiculous, and so is the idea that a retired military officer has no free speech rights. But the idea is to smear Charlie as some kind of radical leftist and anti-military, despite Brown's long record of supporting veterans and McClintock's longer record voting against them.
The ensuing press conference put on by the McClintock campaign was a wild affair.
SACRAMENTO - A press conference on congressional candidate Charlie Brown's actions in 2005 at the home of an anti-war display nearly descended into conflict itself, with disruptions before, during and after the event and a near-appearance by police officers [...]
But before the event even began, a handful of Brown supporters - accompanied by Brown's campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse - were asked to leave so that they wouldn't cause a disruption.
One man loudly protested that as a military veteran and the father of an active-duty U.S. soldier, he felt he could stay. "This is not Russia," he said.
McClintock campaign consultant John Feliz and Stenhouse eventually got the man to agree to leave, but not before security at the Hyatt hotel where the press conference took place made calls to Sacramento police to remove the man [...]
But a third man who was with the veterans pointed out that Brown was within his First Amendment right to do so, prompting Feliz to ask him to leave as well, while also saying Brown should re-enlist and face a court martial for his actions.
The man, who gave his name as Bret Sherlock, said afterward that he attended because he was tired of non-veterans like McClintock smearing veterans like Brown.
"Did he do anything illegal?" Sherlock said of Brown, adding that if anyone should be able to protest the war, it should be Brown, as both a veteran and a father of a soldier who has served four tours of duty in Iraq.
McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said the video came from a "concerned citizen." Neither McClintock nor Brown appeared at the press conference.
After the press conference concluded, Stenhouse tried to give McClintock's campaign a pledge to join a Brown program that donates 5 percent of Brown's campaign contributions to nonprofit community groups that work with charities.
Feliz angrily took it and threw it down without looking at it.
They don't want to talk about issues. So McClintock tries to smear a decorated veteran to win an election. Typical.
In 2006, a corrupt GOP lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, took over the congressional seat of another corrupt GOP lobbyist, Duke Cunningham. Both are buddies of Jack Abramoff. Bilbray faces a tough re-election fight this year against Nick Leibham.
Let's help get Nick Leibham elected. Nick was a high school teacher (he taught government and U.S. history) and criminal prosecutor for the County of San Diego. (After the fold, I'll provide a little more background about Nick Leibham and what he stands for, and what he's up against.)
DONATE TODAY to help Nick Leibham (and other forgotten candidates).
In addition to donating, please help optimize this article about Brian Bilbray, who is the incumbent GOP congressman. (To help do this, simply link to the articles on your own blogs / blogrolls / websites just like I did, using Brian Bilbray as the link text.)
Dave noted today in the quick hits that Brian Bilbray's refusal to set foot in the district to debate Nick Leibham will be met with Bilbray chicken sandwiches and a campaign volunteer in a chicken suit. Now we have yet another example of Bilbray refusing to go anywhere near the people he's supposed to represent.
The Men's Club of Congregation Beth Israel in the 50th district had, until recently, been working on putting together a town hall for both camps. But via email comes the news that the event "had to be cancelled because of the lack of participation of the Bilbray campaign."
Ouch. It's one thing to be out of touch, it's quite another to flat out refuse to acknowledge or engage your constituents. Bilbray is terrified of his record and knows full well that it's dramatically outside the mainstream of the district and the country. So his strategy is simply to hide and hope nobody notices. Not only is he chicken, but he's insulting the intelligence of every voter in the district by taking up this strategy. The "maybe nobody will notice I'm selling the country down the river" notion is flat out offensive and should be a devastating embarrassment.
If you're too chicken to face the voters, it might be time to double check exactly what the heck you're doing in Washington. [Update] I should also mention that the GOP "drill now, who cares if it'll work" cabal who are holding sham sessions in the House aren't doing so hot. One has already lost a primary because he was in the pocket of big oil and others can't stay interested long enough to miss their golf outings.
I mentioned on Monday that Nick Leibham would be offering gas to residents of the 50th district discounted to the price in April 1996 when Big Oil first started funneling money to Brian Bilbray.
Today, ExxonMobil posted $11.7 billion in second quarter profits, the all-time record for a U.S. Company, so the $182,818 that Bilbray has received from oil companies throughout his career may seem like a drop in the bucket. But he's certainly delivered time and again for Big Oil: Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act (Use It or Lose It): No. Drill Responsibly in Leased Lands Act: No. Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act: No. Energy Independence and Security Act: No.
The response yesterday was- perhaps unsurprisingly- huge. Leibham's campaign manager described to me "lines down the road...people were so enthusiastic." Because pain at the pump is inescapable, it's immediate, it's obvious, and it's not a complicated issue. There's a clear choice being presented between the failed policies of the past- more drilling, and the policies of progress- investment in new and renewable energy, use of existing drilling leases, the elimination of tax breaks for Big Oil.
This is a race that's often flown under the radar in online circles, but with Bilbray refusing to even enter his district in order to defend his extremist voting record, it could get pretty interesting. Bilbray is desperate to avoid engaging on real issues, crowing about a veterans memorial but voting to continue the Iraq debacle and voting against the new GI Bill. Every chance he gets to bring about positive change, Bilbray stands in opposition. But when he can stand far outside his district and lob rhetoric, he's all for it.
While Bilbray continues to work against Americans, Nick Leibham got out, in the district, and did something that would actually help a little bit. It isn't much, but it's not supposed to be a solution. What it was supposed to be- and succeeded in being- is a sharp line of contrast between the priorities of these two candidates.
One of and for the people, the other bought and paid to oppose the people.
So he came all the way back to San Diego and didn't go to his district. Why? So that he could burnish his fake-environmentalist credentials by...celebrating the destruction of local wetlands. Now this might be a bit confusing if you've been receiving any of Bilbray's official franking mail recently, because they claim he's "keeping our beaches and water clean." Except of course that he's not. It's convenient though- he can send these barely-legal and completely dishonest mail pieces from DC so he never has to go to the district and face the voters, then he can come to San Diego and claim he's been to town even though his event isn't in the district and directly contradicts his mailers, and then he can go back to DC hoping that everyone noticed a little bit but not too much. Because it probably wouldn't be too good for him if people looked very closely at him or his voting record.
It's been more than 12 years since Brian Bilbray first took money from Big Oil to fund his political career. Back then, gas was $1.27/gallon in the 50th district, and after a dozen years of Bilbray and his Big Oil Republican buddies, gas is well over $4/gallon. Bilbray and his cronies think the solution is to give more tax dollars to oil companies, which makes sense since that money comes back as campaign contributions- a convenient way to launder taxes into re-election funds and not actually address gas prices in any way.
Nick Leibham just outraised Bilbray int he second quarter and is spreading a bit of that cash around as direct relief to drivers in the district. This Wednesday (July 30), Leibham will roll back gas prices at three gas stations in the 50th to $1.27, just like it was before Big Oil laid down the money to push Bilbray into office. This was a HUGE success in 2006 when Larry Kissell did it in North Carolina. More than 500 people showed up for the cheap gas, snarling traffic and bringing in police to wrangle the crowds. It's a great time to be punching holes in Brian Bilbray's absurd claim of being good on environmental and energy issues. Just a quick check of his recent voting record exposes how bad it is. Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act (Use It or Lose It): No. Drill Responsibly in Leased Lands Act: No. Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act: No. Energy Independence and Security Act: No.
Bad for the environment, bad for safe energy, bad for energy security, bad for creating new jobs in energy. And this guy's supposed to be a friend of the environment and renewable energy? No.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Two more Democratic challengers have outraised their incumbent opponents in the second quarter. That doesn't happen very often, and it's not supposed to in the supposedly impenetrably gerrymandered state of California. But as I've been saying, this is a different year.
In CA-50, I've been informed that Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray by $245K-$210K in the second quarter. From the release:
Challenger Nick Leibham raised more money than Congressman Brian Bilbray in this fundraising quarter, according to FEC reports. Leibham raised $245,504 while Bilbray managed $210,315. The quarter spanned from April 1, 2008-June 31, 2008.
"Any time that you out raise an incumbent, especially someone like Brian Bilbray who has taken over $180,000 in campaign contributions from Big Oil, it gives the campaign a huge amount of momentum," said Leibham. "This is the clearest sign yet that the voters of the 50th are ready for change and I'm honored that so many of them are willing to contribute to our effort."
Leibham has $266K cash on hand, compared to $528K for Bilbray.
In CA-46, there is similarly good news about Debbie Cook so I'll let it speak for itself:
Debbie Cook Raises More Than Rohrabacher For The Second Straight Quarter
Democratic Congressional nominee Debbie Cook announced today that she raised more campaign funds than Dana Rohrabacher in the latest reporting period, making it the second quarter in a row she's out-raised the nine-term incumbent.
Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, out-raised Rohrabacher by more than $10,000. Cook raised $92,900 to Rohrabacher's $78,712.
Cook has $97K CoH. 70% of her donors are local, meaning she has grassroots support AND that she has limitless potential if she can tap into netroots energy and build a national fundraising base. She will be appearing at Netroots Nation.
Both of these are, in some respect, a reflection of two lazy incumbents. Bilbray and particularly Rohrabacher aren't paying any attention to fundraising. But there's not going to be any NRCC money forthcoming if these two get in trouble. There's not going to be any expansion of their donor base. So while both have cash reserves (Bilbray has about $528K CoH, Rohrabacher has $387K), they aren't overwhelming, and both Leibham and Cook ought to be somewhat competitive financially.
This is nothing like CA-26, where David Dreier has $1.9 million in the bank. (Russ Warner's numbers aren't out yet.)
More numbers:
CA-45: Bornstein raised a little over $96,000, has $121K CoH. No numbers for Mary Bono yet.
CA-03: Bill Durston raised around $125K, has $188K CoH. Nice haul for him. Dan Lungren raised $173K, has $615K CoH.
CA-52: Mike Lumpkin raised $128K but only has $53K CoH.
UPDATE: Russ Warner's numbers have come through.
CA-26: Warner raised $162K in Q2, $125K CoH (with $73,000 in debts; ouch.); Dreier raised $277K in Q2, $1.9million CoH, no debts.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I've tried to corral all their statements into my diary on Daily Kos, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Below the fold, I've modified the original diary to list just the California Democratic challengers running who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
We've known for years now that Brian Bilbray doesn't actually live in the 50th district. It's a given, it's ridiculous, and it should be an embarrassment. But apparently his contempt for the district doesn't end there.
After Democratic challenger Nick Leibham challenged Bilbray to a series of debates, Bilbray's campaign responded with an insistence on radio and TV debates only, with a preference for radio. Why? Because "radio debates would enable Bilbray to participate from Washington."
That's right. Bilbray won't even come to the district to campaign for re-election. He's too busy voting the failed GOP party line nearly 92% of the time to swing through the district he claims to represent and engage in a debate of the issues. Just to see if perhaps he had alternate in-district plans, I swung by his re-election website. The Event page is a veritable beehive of activity, reading (in its entirety) "For questions call 619-234-0231"
We already know that Bilbray is ashamed of his record in Washington, but it's still amazing that it's so difficult to get him to even show his face in the district.
The Leibham campaign has just wrapped up their week-long series of events honoring Memorial Day, which they called "Bring Our Troops Home Week." A summary of all the events is below the fold. It was my pleasure to join them for the highlight of the week, visiting patients at the VA hospital in La Jolla and delivering gift baskets.
The group was assigned to the spinal cord injury unit. Most of the patients were from the first Gulf War or Vietnam; La Jolla VA is a center of excellence for spinal cord injuries, so they were from all across the western states--Nevada, Colorado, Arizona to name a few. They travel to the La Jolla VA annually for 3-4 days filled with tests and evaluations. The medical care was universally praised. The food, not so much. :-) One woman said she ordered her meals delivered from a variety of local restaurants! And many were especially grateful for the fudge included in Nick's gift baskets.
Visitors are prohibited from campaigning, and the group was meticulous about observing these rules. But many patients eagerly broached the topic of politics on their own, sharing their anti-Bush sentiments. Of those who said anything, anti-Bush feelings were unanimous. Most of the time it came up in off-hand jokes/mocking/derision. The most heart-breaking was a veteran of the first Gulf War, a mother whose son is now in the military. She said she didn't mind being deployed since it was her duty, but watching her son was too much for her. She choked up while expressing her hope for a new president with a new direction. Nick's volunteer's response was simply, "A lot of people are working really hard to make that happen." Amen.
The Leibham campaign (CA-50) has come out with an extended biographical ad that is now available on Youtube. Really worth checking out. Even having followed the campaign pretty closely, I got a new appreciation for what Nick brings to the table from the ad. Leibham is the son of a Vietnam veteran and his resume includes teacher and prosecutor. Leibham does a nice job of not only mentioning these resume highlights, but explaining how they translate into his political philosophy and what he would do for people in our district.
Continuing with Dave's election theme from earlier, the first numbers that I've seen on general election matchups in CA-50 arrived in my inbox earlier today. They're from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and were commissioned by the Nick Leibham campaign. They run the gamut from the district as a whole to specific matchups, but let's not lose focus on the contested Democratic primary being settled on June 3 between Leibham and Cheryl Ede. However, many of these numbers have more to do with Bilbray, the district, and it being a bad year to be a Republican.
If nothing else, it's an indicator that the district is open to a Democrat. Meanwhile, Rep. Brian Bilbray's re-elect is at an uninspiring 42%.
Definitely re-elect: 15%
Probably re-elect: 27%
Probably vote for someone else: 18%
Definitely vote for someone else: 21%
Other/DK: 20%
42 is not a good number, especially at this point. While there are some who will come home to the GOP eventually, that's a lot of persuadable voters and a lot of people who aren't too impressed with Bilbray.
Since this was a Leibham poll, they obviously polled the general matchup, which I suppose helps feed fundraising and a "I'm the one who can win" primary frame. Initial numbers came out:
Bilbray: 52%
Leibham: 34%
Undecided: 13%
So plenty of ground to make up, but a district that's open to someone who's not a nutjob like Brian Bilbray. It was neck and neck after a bio read, but I don't put a lot of stock in bio read numbers for predicative purposes: The bio doesn't matter until people know it. Once they know it, the shift will show in the base numbers.
But this far out, this is looking like a race that can and should be competitive for the eventual Democratic nominee. Bilbray has staked his claim on being even crazier than George Bush and John McCain. If that's what he wants to be judged on, then let's give him a run for it.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Does anybody remember when Brian Bilbray sold himself as a moderate? I know it seems like a lifetime ago (or maybe some sort of absurd dream), but it was just 1995 that he first went to Congress. And I've heard the stories from reasonable people with clear eyes about how once he was (relatively) a champion of the environment, particularly clean beaches and water. He was (and perhaps still is) a surfer and lifeguard after all. And yet, it's not at all surprising that he was doing rhetorical backflips in celebration yesterday when Homeland Security decided to waive 30 federal and state environmental laws in order to more quickly build 670 miles of border fence:
"It's great. This is the priority area where most of the illegal activity is going on and where most of the deaths are occurring," said Rep. Brian P. Bilbray (R-Solana Beach), chairman of the Immigration Reform Caucus. "The quicker we can get the physical fence up, the sooner we'll avoid situations like the deaths of agents. And it's still a national security issue. You just have to stop this kind of open traffic along the border."
Cheryl Ede, a Congressional candidate in CA-50 (Bilbray), just informed me that she has signed on to endorse the Responsible Plan. This is the third Congressional candidate in California to endorse the plan, joining Ron Shepston (CA-42) and Debbie Cook (CA-46). By the end of the weekend I expect several more.
It's time for Nick Leibham to sign on as well. This is a intelligent and important set of policies that will create a legitimate mandate to end this war, not a vague nod toward a "new direction" in Iraq. Plus, it will seek to repair the broken institutions that led us into this disaster in the first place. The candidates that have signed on nationwide seek to represent some of the reddest districts in the country, some of the bluest, and everything in between. There is no reason for a candidate who wants to best represent the Democratic Party not to sign on.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
