To the right you will see the commercial that Nevada is airing right here in California. It is an attack against the California legislature. Which is kind of like hitting the broad side of a barn these days.
Chamber of Commerce folks like to point out the "massive" effects of poaching from other states. Yet, well, the facts don't bear that out:
But other data show that business relocation has a minimal effect on California's economy. The number of jobs lost because of business relocation each year - about 11,000 - is "relatively inconsequential," according to a 2007 study by Public Policy Institute of California, a nonprofit and nonpartisan think tank. (LA Times)
The greater problem is that the resources pulled in these little tiffs is a net loss to both states. Both states spend resources to pick off business from each other, and in the end it's a zero sum game. Well, less than zero as they end up giving incentives to new businesses to lure them, and watch the old ones slip out the door for greener pastures.
But when it comes down to it, California is a special place. We simply have a combination of resources that few other places in the world can boast. Yet, given the vast resources of the state, others will be sure to continue their vulturing as we race to become the state offering the worst labor standards and the lowest taxes as states seek to become the new Somalia.
Our neighbors to the East are substantially different to us. They have different goals, and a different world view on how we should treat our citizens, how we should educate our children, and what kind of services we should provide. Usually, it's no big deal. They do their thing, we do ours.
Of course, times are different now. For a long time, we have had many advantages that come from a more progressive government: better educated workers and better services available to businesses. It's hard to claim much of an advantage in that realm now that we've gone ahead and slashed pretty much everything.
But this works really, really well for the CalChamber. It sets them up so well, you might even begin to wonder if the Chambers of Commerce all across the country are coordinating a race to the bottom. One state Chamber of Commerce (or in this case, Development Authority) tosses a little stink bomb like this little ad into another state, and the recipient state gets to argue how taxes are too high. Say, something like this:
And California Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Allan Zaremberg thinks that, despite the recession, California still has a lot to offer. But he said the ad's focus is a warning that the state should steer clear of raising taxes.
"Nevada is trying to steal businesses based on taxes, so we in California have to be sensitive to that message and make sure we don't increase tax burdens on california businesses," he said in a statement. "Just as is the case in California, Nevada's economy is hurting and that is why they are aggressively trying to lure businesses away. I would match California's higher education system and quality of life against theirs any day." (CapAlert 8/7/09)
Well, isn't that convenient for Zaremberg, it plays right into the right-wing message that he and his cronies, such as Arnold, have foist onto unreceptive Californians. If we keep this headlong nosedive to the bottom up we'll soon discover there's not a whole lot left to fight over.
It is sadly typical of the knuckle-draggers in the California Republican Party that they picked today to file a lawsuit over Obama's travel to Hawaii to visit Mrs. Dunham for the last time. The RNC jumped on this lawsuit filing today as well.
Turns out she passed away today. Obama took time off the campaign trail in the final weeks to say his last goodbyes. Unfortunately she could not make it to Election Day.
What a classy bunch over at the CRP offices.
RIP Madelyn Dunham.
...I should also note that the Nevada State Director of the Obama campaign died from a massive heart attack this morning at the age of just 44. Much of my volunteer efforts for Obama supported Nevada. This is also a tragic loss.
The general election has begun. On a random Thursday night, when most political junkies were watching POW McCain's cottage cheese and lime Jello speech at the RNC convention, in a town notoriously hard to get anywhere in on time, 2,000 people showed up at the opening of Barack Obama's first campaign office in Southern California.
There were a couple speeches from locals (Eric Garcetti, Harb Wesson, Mark Ridley-Thomas, and a couple others) at the beginning, and they handed out a few yard signs and bumper stickers, but basically, this was an office opening. Just a walk-through of the building. And the campaign sent only one email out about it, with just 24 hours advance notice.
• Over to our east, the Nevada Dems aren't doing so bad. Two Congressional Races were just upgraded by CQ, with state Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus now in a toss-up in the Vegas 'burbs. Titus is a good candidate, and everything is looking up for her: fundraising, name ID, and the polling.
• Some grassroots activists in the Sacramento area are gearing up to oppose the Peripheral Canal. Apparently some didn't get the message back in the 80s about this bad idea. It would decimate wildlife, among other disastrous consequences. Interestingly, there's substantial conservative opposition to the Canal, and not just from the farmers in the region.
• Universities across the state are lobbying to get the Greenhouse Gas Institute that might be set up if it gets through the somewhat unimpressive legislative process. The institute would aim to find solutions to climate change. A rather small task, IMHO.
• This is an interesting lawsuit. The supporters of Prop 2 (humane farm conditions) are alleging that a partially government funded marketing group, the American Egg Board, has designated $3 million to fight Prop 2. The trouble is that under law, they cannot get involved in politics. Keep an eye on this.
UPDATE by Dave: Let me just add a couple things to this:
• The long battle between the Navy and environmentalists over sonar off the California coast came to an end yesterday with the Navy agreeing to restrict low-frequency sonar to protect whales and other sea life. This is a win for environmentalists, and it doesn't impact the Navy all that much to boot - the sonar wasn't necessary in these training exercises.
• There's more on South LA's decision to restrict construction of new fast-food restaurants in the New York Times. There's concern that pupusarias and barbecue joints might get caught up in the shuffle, as the definition of "fast-food" is a little vague.
We spend a lot of time in these news updates showing how charges of voter fraud are used to discredit voter participation efforts and prime the pump for voter suppression efforts, such as the passage of voter ID bills, pushing for proof of citizenship, engaging in draconian voter purge efforts, and imposing sever restrictions on voter registration drives. We have also spent a lot of time carefully delineating the politics behind these efforts, starting with our March 2007 report The Politics Of Voter Fraud and continuing on in these diaries to name but two venues.
Here's a quickie. That was the craziest scene I've ever witnessed. We went to the caucus at the Wynn. Imagine maids, chefs, cocktail waitresses, cool kids from the club, etc., all in a room doing politics. Nuts.
Clinton 189, Obama 187 in our caucus. Obama did not get a bump from the casinos on the Strip. A LOT more later. I could write a book.
For the record, there are a lot of allegations flying around about voter intimidation and voter suppression and all of that, on the Clinton AND on the Obama side (the Edwards folks are saying they just didn't have the people and didn't have the money). To be clear, I saw none of that at the Wynn, though of course, there was so much media there nobody would have been able to get away with it.
I'll give a full report probably tomorrow.
P.S. The Nevada State Democratic Party is reporting that turnout is above 114,000 caucus attendees, with 88% of precincts reporting. That is a ridiculously high number. Something like 9,000 people voted in 2004. Another good day for Democrats.
P.S.S. The Obama campaign is claiming that they're going to end up with 13 delegates to Clinton's 12, because he outperformed Clinton in rural areas of the state. Indeed, in everything but Clark and Washoe Counties (Vegas and Reno), Obama won 55-45%. I have no idea if this is true, but considering the delegate count is what actually MATTERS, you'd think that this would be reported.
P.S.S.S. OK, I just spoke with Jill Derby, the head of the Nevada State Democratic Party. Regarding the Obama claim that he'll actually get more delegates out of this, essentially that's spin. Derby said that the caucuses are an "expression of the support of Nevadans today." Around 11,000 delegates were elected today. That will be winnowed down at county conventions and eventually at the state convention in May to the 25 that will go to Denver for the DNC. In 2004, Kerry didn't win every delegate on Election Day, but most of the delegates that eventually went to the DNC were his. Once there's a presumptive nominee, the delegate numbers are subject to change. It's non-binding.
If that makes your head spin, the short version is that this was a beauty contest, and you can't project delegate numbers at this time.
On the question of charges of voter suppression and intimidation, which the Obama campaign is officially alleging, Derby said this (paraphrase):
"We had strict standards in place for what went on in the caucus room. Outside of the room is not necessarily our purview. We did get a few calls over the course of the day, and we did eject some people from the caucus room for engaging in tactics that were not within the rules."
I asked her if she was going to initiate an investigation, and she demurred. She basically said that if Nevadans feel they have had their voting rights infringed upon, they should take it up with the "proper avenues," which specifically she said was the courts. She also basically said that there was a lot of passion on both sides, and these kind of charges get thrown around in those circumstances.
Trying to be hands-off here, just the facts, ma'am. I can tell you one thing - this will not go away, and it could end up being a very big part of the conversation heading into South Carolina.
So we're in the Obama press area awaiting his arrival (in about an hour, I'm told), and I had some time to write, and elaborate on what I told our Northern Nevadaticians over the phone.
We just got back from a Bill Clinton event in North Las Vegas at a local YMCA. There were about 150-200 people there, which seemed small to me. Bill came out and said he mostly wanted to take questions, and then proceeded to talk for about 45 minutes (hah!). It was a solid speech, completely extemporaneous, talking about the challenges we must face in the next four years and how his wife is best able to face them. But there was one glaringly strange moment.
We just arrived on the Strip about 20 minutes ago. We'll be at campaign events for Obama and Clinton tonight, and out at the caucus sites tomorrow (Mittens Romney will be out at a caucus site at 7:30am, so that could be fun).
I find it instructive to watch the local news reports on caucus eve. Despite what you'd think, there's been about 3 minutes of coverage of the caucuses in the last half-hour. They've actually devoted more to the local women's roller derby team than the caucuses. (ah, local news). One station had an end-of-the-newscast story where the reporter showed a bunch of pictures of the candidates to people on the street and asked them to name them. It wasn't pretty.
When people say they don't know who'll show up to these caucuses, I believe it. It doesn't seem as central to the local scene as, say, the Danny Gans show.
One thing I did notice on the news: Nevada's unemployment rate is up to 5.8%, the highest rate since April of 2002. I've heard that it's been a bad winter in Las Vegas, which may impact the desire of people to caucus if it means missing their shift at the casinos. (By the way, the casinos made $25 billion last year, so they're not exactly hurting; but the employees aren't doing all that well.)
Obama and Clinton both have ads up; Clinton's has this old NFL Films music on it, and it's a little surprising that they went el cheapo on the score).
Two groups of Caliticians will be hitting Nevada for the weekend to cover the caucuses on Saturday afternoon. I will be with Todd Beeton of MyDD in Las Vegas; and Brian, Juls and I believe Lucas will be in the Reno area. In Vegas, we'll be hitting the "closing argument" events from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on Friday night (John Edwards actually has a morning event in Vegas that we'll probably miss, and then he leaves Nevada for Oklahoma and Missouri), and we'll make an appearance at one of the at-large precinct caucuses on the Strip on Saturday. I'll let the NorCal component check in with their plans.
Thanks for tuning in once again, hopeful Americans
And welcome to what John Edwards has called "the Fight for America's Middle Class". This is a fight to reclaim a Voice in our Democratic process -- to speak up for those people, who need a Champion, like you and me.
1st a Question: Who is the Middle Class?
America is sometimes called a "middle-class country," but nobody - not economists, sociologists, or the U.S. Census Bureau - seems to have a clear definition of who the middle class actually is. The notion of where a dividing line between "middle class" and "working class" might be is an elusive one ...
a non-partisan and non-profit organization, reports that the middle class has conventionally come to mean families with incomes between $25,000 and $100,000 each year.
...
As NOW reported in "Middle Class Squeeze" (Dec 13, 2002), the shape of income distribution in America is changing and many are finding it increasingly difficult to afford housing while keeping up with necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and health care.
Wabooom. Kabbbam. Iowa cauces...couple of thoughts:
John Edwards' number rounds up to 30, Hillary Clinton's rounds down to 29 (by 3/100ths of a point - ouch). There is a reason why $29.99 appears far less than $30.00
With same day registration, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden calling no joy, and fierce Baracketting, New Hampshire looks like another upset win for Barack Obama on Tuesday
This means Nevada will become Hillary's first potential win. This puts California boots in play with the ease of traveling to Vegas/Henderson or Reno
Expect this to put a f-ton of small dollar money heading to Anyone But Clinton -- I think Obama could best $12 million by New Hampshire
Clinton isn't in the top 3 on the huge facebook poll by the League of Young Voters, Moveon, et al.
December 4, 2007 - Des Moines, IA, NPR News/Iowa Public Radio Debate December 13, 2007 - Johnston, Iowa, Des Moines Register Democratic Debate
December 17, 2007 - Boston, MA
January 15, 2008 - Las Vegas, Nevada
December 1, 2007 - Des Moines, IA, Brown & Black Forum
December 1, 2007 - Des Moines, IA, Heartland Presidential Forum
December 4, 2007 - Des Moines, IA, NPR News/Iowa Public Radio Debate
December 10, 2007 - Los Angeles, California, CBS
December 13, 2007 - Johnston, Iowa, Des Moines Register Democratic Debate
January 15, 2008 - Las Vegas, Nevada
January 31, 2008 - California
