Mitt Romney is to be commended for his honesty. This ranks right up there with "I like being able to fire people," and "corporations are people, my friend." Romney has shown that while he may have the golden touch for all of his personal investment choices, he has a tin ear for politics. Romney doesn't even bother trying to mask his contempt for non-rich Americans. Once again, Mitt Romney shows he has the same compassion level for the non-rich that the Mel Brooks' character King Louis did when he was using live peasants for skeet shooting practice.
Here is a new ad that we are in the process of buying national cable TV news for now.
One of the key issues framing the Republican primary race and one that will certainly be highlighted during the general election if Romney were to get that far is his role in Bain Capital.
The media lesson to be learned is that you must get out in front of issues that can hurt your reputation before your enemies, opponents, and in the world of business, your competitors frame the issue and you are left playing defense instead of offense.
Bain Capital has been discussed ever since Mitt Romney first entered politics in 1994. Many people believe that Bain Capital has done so many nefarious things in a complex manner and this in turn has left most voters confused by Romney's Bain connection.
The danger that the Romney camp is now faced with is that the media and his opponents have framed the issue in the following way:
1. Bain Capital would plunge a company into massive debt.
2. Bain would pull out massive fees.
3. The company would be pushed into bankruptcy.
4. Bain would then purge the company of hundreds or even thousands of workers.
Romney is basing his entire presidential claim on his ability to "create jobs" and his record at Bain Capital. He's not running on his record as Governor of Massachusetts. So if voters view Romney's Bain record in exclusively negative terms, then Romney's rationale for running for President is completely destroyed.
Partial transcript from an interview with CNSNews.com:
Huckabee: ... You know, it's interesting, the California decision as well as the Massachusetts decision, I don't think should ever have been implemented by the governors, Schwarzenegger and Romney. They were both decisions that the governors simply could have said the court has said that we have to do it, but let them enforce it. Because those were administrative decisions that had to put that in place and there was no mandate.
Jeffrey: Right, but Governor Romney actually went ahead and certified same-sex marriages without an act of his state legislature.
Huckabee: It should never have happened. It should never have happened. And while we want to blame the courts-
As for election news in California, the final two polls have been wildly divergent. SurveyUSA shows a 10-point Clinton lead, while Reuters/Zogby has a 13-point Obama lead. The final Field Poll (the gold standard, as everyone knows) went with a one-point lead to Obamatwo-point lead to Clinton, almost exactly in the middle.
Of course, this only tells part of the story, as Marc Ambinder picked up on my caveat that the district-level delegate system will skew the results, particularly in those even-numbered districts, where a high bar is needed to be scaled to get anything beyond an even split of delegates. And if you expect an early answer about them, think again:
So much for having a hard delegate count on Super Tuesday, we're hearing that CA Dems won't have final delegate tally ready until Friday.
Debra Bowen's mantra has been that she'd rather get the count right than get it fast, so everyone's going to have to wait. I think it's a small price to pay for voting with a paper ballot. By the way, DTS voters, fill that bubble!
The Cook Political Report did the same district-level analysis that I did yesterday, and found a considerably larger amount of variance. Cook thinks that Clinton can get over the 63% bar in those heavily-Latino districts (I'm not so sure). I understand that the 6-delegate seats require 58.3% of the vote to get a 4-2 split, which seems to me to be possible in Barbara Lee's CA-09 and Nancy Pelosi's CA-08, so Obama could be in an even stronger position than I thought. And as Councilman Garcetti said last night, they are paying attention to this stuff, on both sides I would imagine.
Finally, we have somewhat neglected the Republican race. The chic pick is that Romney has come all the way back and will take California. John McCain is apparently worried about it, since it would mean that Romney has an argument to stay in the race. Both candidates scurried back here today for extra bits of campaigning.
And yet McCain's people fear he may lose the popular vote in California to Romney -- even if they haul in the same number of CA delegates -- and that the Super Tuesday story will therefore NOT be the crowning of McCain but rather his failure to put away the game, a failure born of his fractious and sometimes unloving relationship with conservatives, especially those millions of conservatives who listen to and abide by Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, not to mention Limbaugh and Hannity themselves, and a failure that in turn will be viewed as both a symptom and a cause of the historic crack-up of the conservative coalition that has sustained and nourished the Republican Party for a couple generations.
Which would be fantastic, since it would be desirable for their race to be as screwed up as ours. Could the relentless Rush Limbaugh attacks be having an impact? We'll soon find out.
With the February 5th primary election approaching rapidly, in which voters in California and 21 other states will pick which presidential candidates represent each party, we have a rare opportunity to make a monumental decision.
For the first time in years, we have an opportunity to elect a president who will give the global climate crisis the level of attention that is required to tackle it.
But how are we to know where the candidates stand on global warming, if reporters simply refuse to ask the right questions? Of the 2,938 questions asked of the presidential candidates since January 2007, just 6 mentioned global warming (source: League of Conservation Voters).
(XPosted in the BluePalmSpringsBoyz Blog 1/29/2008 7:50 PM PST on MyDesert.com)
The National and local news media usually only focus on who 'wins' the caucus or primary race. They provide little information on election night regarding the important race, that for delegates.
This is interesting stuff from CNN.com, see http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R for the Republican totals and http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D for the Democratic totals.
The National and local news media usually only focus on who 'wins' the caucus or primary race. They provide little information on election night regarding the important race, that for delegates.
This is interesting stuff from CNN.com for the Republican totals and CNN.com for the Democratic totals (kudos to grodriguez for providing the link in his blog).
The magic number of delegates for the Democratic nominee is 2,025. Thus far, 443 Democratic delegates have been chosen, including those from today's South Carolina Democratic primary as well as the so-called Super Delegates (e.g., governors, U.S. Senators, U.S. Representatives). This means that only 10.94% of the Democratic delegates are committed to date.
The National and local news media usually only focus on who 'wins' the caucus or primary race. They provide little information on election night regarding the important race, that for delegates.
This is interesting stuff from CNN.com, see http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20... for the Republican totals and http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20... for the Democratic totals (kudos to grodriguez for providing the link in his blog).
The magic number of delegates for the Democratic nominee is 2,025. Thus far, 386 Democratic delegates have been chosen, including those from today's Nevada Democratic caucuses as well as the so-called Super Delegates (e.g., governors, U.S. Senators, U.S. Representatives). This means that only 9.53% of the Democratic delegates are committed to date. Hillary Clinton leads the field far and away (I have deleted the Democratic candidates who have thus far dropped out of the race). The results are as follows:
34% Huckabee
25% Romney
14% Thompson
13% McCain
10% Paul
Other
So allowing for a possible 1% fluctuation somewhere, how does this impact the race and California's role therein? Thus far, California numbers have mirrored national polling almost exactly. Anybody want to guess where the Iowa bounce takes us?
UPDATE: Most recent Field Poll (pdf) has California looking this way two weeks ago:
Remember the 1970's game show with Monty Hall called "Let's Make a Deal"? Contestants on the program would pick a prize behind one of three curtains, and some would inevitably get stuck with a "gag prize" - such as a high chair with a screaming baby, a giant hot water bottle, or a pet donkey. Today's gag prize is the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination, as the political climate for next year should be very problematic for the G.O.P. While the Republican presidential field is more fluid this year than the Democratic side, that's because (a) each candidate is seriously flawed, (b) voters aren't happy with any of them, and (c) unless the Democrats really screw up, 2008 should be a terrible year for Republicans. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee can enjoy the sudden burst of media attention that his high placement in the polls has garnered, but - assuming he wins the nomination - how much would that prize really be worth? Nobody should care who wins the Republican nomination, because it probably won't matter much in the end.
The Finance Report for Campaign 2008 Q3 is now in for the Coachella Valley, thanks to HuffingtonPost.com FundRace 2008. Much has already been written about the declining amounts given to the Republican campaigns as compared to Campaign 2004. In fact, some bloggers have indicated that Business in particular has been abandoning the Republican party this election cycle, for instance, refer to today's post on HuffingtonPost.com at Fundraising Trends Democratic in Key Senate Races.
"With third quarter fundraising totals trickling in, the Senate electoral landscape continues to look optimistic for Democrats.
"Political insiders cite at least seven Senate seats currently held by Republicans as potentially up for grabs in 2008. In each of those contests Democratic challengers finds themselves either well positioned in the polls or well stocked in their campaign coffers."
"Lag, lag, lag. That's all you hear these days regarding Republican fundraising compared with the Democrats'.
"Now we can add a new word: abandoned."
Check in the following to see the meager totals racked up in the Coachella Valley for the Republican candidates this quarter (Q3). Also, check the information below to see what your neighbors contributed.
As you probably know already, the Palm Springs/Coachella Valley area is a must-see destination for Presidential campaigns. What you probably don't know, that, at least in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, Palm Desert, and Coachella, Fred Thompson raised $0.00 during Q3 and only 4% of the total raised by Republicans Coachella Valley-wide. (It seems that he is as lazy at the money trough as he is on the campaign trail. Also, Thompson barely beat Ron Paul in the fund race in the Coachella Valley). So much for the Thompson factor thus far.
When considering the donations to Republican Presidential candidates in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Desert Hot Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Coachella, and Indio, John McCain raised $17,213, I.e., 35% of the total raised. Rudy Giuliani raised $17,125, 35% of the total. Mitt Romney, the theofascist, gay-bashing, flip-flopping reactionary, raised only $10,685, 22% of the total. Thompson (4%), Ron Paul (2%), and Sam Brownback lagged behind in the FundRace 2008.
What follows is the all-important money trail. See below the flip to understand who your neighbors support, and, indirectly, what they probably think of you, your politics, and your beloved country.
Coachella Valley Grand Total Q3: $48,848
Sam Brownback: $1,000 (2%) Rudy Giuliani: $17,125 (35%) John McCain: $17,213 (35%) Ron Paul: $1,100 (2%) Mitt Romney: $10,685 (22%) Fred Thompson: $1,725 (4%)
As you probably know already, the Palm Springs/Coachella Valley area is a must-see destination for Presidential campaigns. We know this from the visit from the so-called President when he skulked into Indian Wells in 2006 to raise money on behalf of other Repugnants in the Coachella Valley as well as for his own trough. What you probably don't know, that, at least in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, and Palm Desert, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul have raised $0.00 total to date. So much for the Thompson factor in the Coachella Valley thus far.
What follows is the money trail as reported by the HuffingtonPost.com FundRace 2008. See below the flip to understand who your Repugnant neighbors support, and, indirectly, what they probably think of you, your politics, and your beloved country.
George Bush has spoken: no guaranteed healthcare, not for kids, not for nobody. Thank you Mr. Bush for putting your unpopularity behind the private insurance sector--just as their "individual mandate" laws in Massachusetts are running into trouble. Bush's veto provides the single-payer movement with the greatest strategic opening in memory.
Sorry everyone, but I just can't help it! I spotted this on OC Blog yesterday, but the action only continues to heat up over at "Red County" Land:
When are we going to stop calling Mitt Romney a front runner in the GOP Presidential race?
Despite having likely raised and spent more money than the other candidiates thus far, Mitt Romney languishes at just 7% in California (see Jubal's post from yesterday).
At least that's better than he's doing in Nevada (4%), Florida (6%) and nationwide (3%), which is probably due at least in part to certain advantages he holds here in O.C.
Seriously, shouldn't a candidate to at least have come within shouting distance of double-digits to be called a "front runner?" In all these polls the guy consistently trails not one, but two people who aren't even in the race! Save your money, O.C. donors.
In its inaugural issue, Red County's print magazine called Romney the "real deal." As a Presidential contender, he quite clearly is not.
Come on, now! You know you want to follow me after the flip for more salacious GOP infighting... ; )
The last time I heard Duf Sundheim, former CRP chair, speak, he talked about their metrics and their dreams of grassroots involvement. Indeed, when I signed up for their email list (to get Schwarzenegger's scheduling info), I got several phone calls and emails, all wanting me to get involved. Apparently, all that work, and all that money ($25million?) wasn't all that effective after all. From an unnamed "California Republican" of Arnold's grass roots network:
But one California Republican said there is little to be gained by Romney seeking the Schwarzenegger endorsement. "They don't see him as critical," the adviser said. "There's no real benefit to the Schwarzenegger endorsement in terms of grass roots. There's no political organization that you inherit." (CW 3/19/07)
Indeed, nobody was really excited about Arnold to say, go stand in a park for a couple of hours with 10,000 of your closest friends pushing you. Nobody really wanted to go door to door for him. For the Republicans, he was better than Phil Angelides. For the Democrats who voted for him, he was, well, not a politician. SOrry, but the people who vote for somebody because they aren't a politician, don't tend to be political activists. So, Arnold spends $100 million or so, and has precious little to show for it on the ground. So all those big corporations that poured money into Team Arnold...congratulations and be happy with that bumper sticker and Arnold coffee mug. Once 2010 hits, you'll have to start from scratch.
Incidentally, that quote is from a Capitol Weekly article about Mitt "Empty Suit" Romney not caring enough about Arnold's endorsement to find time to talk to him. Or vice versa...
OK, so you probably know by now that I wasn't able to see Mitt Romney on Friday in Dana Point. However, Jon Fleischman did. While I was out in the cold, he was in on all the action... And yes, Fleischman now has his account of the Romney fundraiser up on FlashReport.
Here are some of Romney's "Greatest Hits" from Friday's swanky fundraiser. For more videos, go to Jon's blog.
Why doesn't the Republican Party like its own voters? Why won't the GOP candidates talk to the people who will be making a huge decision next February? Why do the candidates only come to Orange County for the big money, and avoid everyone who could not possibly afford to join the big money at these extravagant fundraisers?
I'll be in Dana Point on Friday to track down Mitt Romney as he hits up the big Orange County Republican donors for money. So how about you? It would be great if we had a Southern California group that tracks down these Presidential hopefuls as they visit the super-rich donors and spend time with them, and it would be even BETTER if this group were to ask these candidates why they don't talk to all the rest of us about their plan to get out of Iraq, or about their plan to provide health care coverage to the 47 MILLION PEOPLE in this nation who have none, or simply why they spend all this time with a select few when ALL OF US plan to be voting next February as well...
Here are some wild and wonderful stories from behind the Orange Curtain, and across the Land of the OC, that will make you laugh, cry, and scratch your head in total disbelief:
- Flip-flop Romney! So you still don't believe me when I tell you that Mitt Romney is not a "true believing" conservative? Then go over to The Liberal OC, and see what Dan has to say about our favorite GOP Presidential contender!
- Do the other four OC Supes want to "cut and run" from Santa Ana? Art Pedroza is now worried that a couple OC Supervisors are seriously considering moving the county seat from Santa Ana to Irvine. And what would happen to the Santa Ana Civic Center, where the county operates presently? Go see Orange Juice for more.
- Overheated and Absurd? Unfortunately, my friend Jubal/Matt Cunningham at OC Blog would rather dismiss all of us as hotheads than to discuss the real problems of the 241 Extension to Trestles. So am I being "overheated and absurd" by presenting some disturbing facts about how the 241 Extension to Trestles wouldn't ease South County traffic even as it destroys one of the last pristine beaches in SoCal?
