The focus of health care reform is looking toward President Obama's speech on Wednesday, and progressives across the country are working in a whole slew of ways to ensure that a public option is included in that speech. Meanwhile, the DCCC has some other issues that it wants to point out this weekend.
But Steele is hardly the only Republican who has a problem with Medicare. The Republicans have been trying in one way or another to kneecap one of the must successful programs in American healthcare. Take a vote from April 2 of this year. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) proposed an alternative budget (beginning at p. 4469) that slashed funding so much as to pretty much assure its death. And a slew of California Republicans voted in support of this measure. Amongst that group was one Mary Bono Mack whom the DCCC chose to target in this ad.
While the Congress members knew full well that this proposed budget had no chance of succeeding, the vote was an indicator of their plans for the future and where they would take the country if they regain the reigns. A scary thought...
Mary Bono Mack has in her career adeptly threaded the needle, voting mostly with the right but surprising on just enough bills every year to appear moderate to her district, which went for Barack Obama in 2008 and has a PVI of only R+3. But her yes vote on the Waxman-Markey climate and energy bill has incensed conservatives, so much so that they are waging jihad against not only Bono Mack but her Congressman husband, who by the way voted against Waxman-Markey.
So it was probably a bit of a shock to her when she saw the headline above that I captured in a screen shot from the Republican Party blog, Red State: Mary Bono Mack Should Be Burned In Effigy And Voted out Of Office. It was written by Georgia Republican Party operative Erick Erickson and something tells me Erickson isn't about to endorse Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who's not just gay, but married (to another man) and happily raising their two children! Too far a stretch for Republicans who seem to always be involved with "opposite marriages," or whatever they call the degrading situations traditional marriage sanctity defenders like Mark Sanford, David Diapers Vitter, Larry Craig and John Ensign are in.
Erickson and the fringe loons on the furthest reaches of the non-criminal right are so upset with Bono Mack that they are threatening to not just defeat her but to go after the right-wing extremist husband to boot! He demands that she vote against health care reform and against the energy bill when it comes back from the Senate-- where it will probably be watered down and look more acceptable to mainstream conservatives!!!-- or face the consequences.
"Otherwise, we beat her and her husband at the polls.
Yes, you heard me. We can get at Mary Bono Mack in two ways-- her district and that of her husband. He should feel the heat just as much as her."
Now, Erickson is a silly person. And his frothing at the mouth is unlikely to result in any change in CA-45. However, I wonder if they can entice some far-right activist to run in the primary. Gary Jeandron, who lost to Manuel Perez convincingly in 2008, is supposedly preparing for a rematch. But AD-80 is far less cordial to Republicans than CA-45 is. And maybe enough foot-stomping tea partiers can persuade him - or some other teabagger - to challenge Bono Mack in the primary. As one of only 8 Republicans to vote for the Waxman-Markey bill (and one of them, John McHugh, is about to become Barack Obama's Secretary of the Army), the wingnuts don't have many targets. Bono Mack may have poked her head up on the wrong bill.
This could be a good time to check out Steve Pougnet.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Well, the votes are in, the matchups are set, and so I thought it was time for a baseline roundup of where I think the California House races stand as of now. The main pieces of information that are causing me to reset my expectations are the primary results, the April 1-May 15 fundraising numbers and the new registration numbers from the Secretary of State's office. You can track all three yourself:
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Senator Barack Obama has inspired me to become his District Level Delegate for the 45th Congressional District. If you have the opportunity to vote in the CA-45 district level Obama caucus, I respectfully ask for your vote.
As a 26-year-old Mexican-born immigrant, product of Coachella Valley Unified School District and proud UC Davis alum, I've worked tirelessly to advocate positive and progressive change throughout our 45th Congressional District.
After finishing the Coro Fellowship in Public Affairs, I returned to my hometown of Coachella to become - much like Senator Obama - a community organizer.
As a Political Organizer for the Roth for Congress Campaign, I worked with local activist and emerging leaders with the simple yet powerful message of "change." In my efforts to galvanize a new generation of voters - much like Senator Obama's campaign - I used new media tools like MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube.
I also helped organize what I proudly called Roth-A-Palooza, which took place at my parents' Coachella ranch.
The Press Enterprise devoted a front-page article on our grassroots work.
Since, I've been appointed as a delegate to the California State Democratic Party, appointed as alternate to the Riverside County Central Committee, and served as the Political Chair of Democrats of the Desert. I am currently the Inland Empire's Regional Political Organizer for SEIU United Healthcare Workers - West.
I am proud that my union local was instrumental in pushing SEIU State Council to endorse Senator Obama before the California Primary.
My efforts included:
o Speaking at a Obama rally in Riverside
o Recruiting and participating in precinct walking in Riverside
o Phonebanking our union members
o Organizing and executing a GOTV campaign targeting our union members.
I thank you for your time and hope you consider voting for me as our pledged Obama Delegate. If you have any questions, please shoot me an email. See you all on Sunday!
Juan Carlos Sanchez
e: jcsanchez1981@gmail.com
Note: I work for the SEIU United Healthcare Workers - West but nothing in this comment should be construed as anything other than my personal opinion at the time of posting
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
Ron Oden, former Mayor of Palm Springs, is just starting his introductory remarks. It's a packed room here at the Palm Desert Library's Community Room. I recognize many faces here, the Democrats have been waiting for this for a long time.
Well, it has come to this. Local progressive Democratic activists have for years attempted to work with The Desert Sun, aka The Pro Bono Sun, and, more recently, mydesert.com, to have more accurate and fair reporting on local politics. But, the Pro Bono Sun and mydesert.com has been oblivious to the changing demographics in the Coachella Valley and continues to inaccurately and unfairly represent local Democrats.
Case in point, the recent article which listed the four Democratic candidates for the CA 80th Assembly District that listed only three of the candidates and omitted the name of Greg Pettis, Mayor Pro-tem of Cathdral City and Candidate for the 80th AD. Inaccuracy at its worst, or prejudice at its best.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.
CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH
CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH I was looking at Q3 numbers. Brown has raised $692,000, and has $483,000 CoH. Big numbers for a non-incumbent.
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH
There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!
CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH
Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.
CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH
Very encouraging.
Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.
Well, it is time for New Year's predictions. This is an opportunity to promote and provoke discussion and not an effort to tout my own seriously limited political prognostication skills.
Iowa Caucuses. On the National level, I predict that John Edwards will either win the Iowa Caucuses or will come in a close second. On the positive side, Edwards has a strong grass-roots organization across the 99 counties of Iowa, especially in the rural counties where the vote is weighted. Edwards also has strong support from Iowa labor which is well-versed in getting-out their vote. Also, the polls are showing upward movement on Edwards part. and downwards pressure on Clinton and Obama, though Clinton seems to have stemmed the tide.
Hillary Clinton has the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and is so set on preventing Barack Obama from doing well in Iowa, that when she is faced with elimination at the caucuses, her people will encourage her caucus goers to throw their support to Edwards. Obama is relying on college students especially to turn-out the vote. Unfortunately for him, this means that a 20-something has to debate between staying home on winter break and partying with friends and intimates versus returning to freezing cold Iowa to walk precincts and to work. My guess is this is a no-brainer for a college student. Also, with the Bhutto assassination, foreign policy comes to the fore, and this is Obama's area of weakness. The last two Presidents elected with little to no foreign policy experience? Pres. Jimmy Carter and Pres. George W. Bush. Carter has only shown foreign policy expertise during his only term in office when stipulating that morality be a central concept when using diplomacy while Bush has yet to show anything approximating foreign policy accumen. I am afraid that Obama sees relations between Chicago, IL and Gary, IN as a foreign policy issues. I do not think that the American people are ready to again provide on-the-job training re foreign policy.
Prediction: John Edwards finishes first, Hillary Clinton finishes second, Barack Obama finishes third in the Iowas caucuses.
(xposted from mydsert.com as bluepslmspringsboyz)
More insightful predictions below the flip...
(Xposted on the www.mydesert.com website, the online version of the Desert Sun)
As indicated in my blog earlier this week on www.mydesert.com "It's the Economy Stupid, 2008 Version," the housing market in Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley has been struggling for months if not years. (refer to that post for the current statistics). In an online article today on www.yahoo.com, the National sales figures have now been released. The news just keeps getting worse for the economy and for the poor management-as-usual of the Bush Administration.
How can the Repugnants expect to be relected to the White House and to return to power in both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives with their continued disastrous economic policies?
The Yahoo reporter, Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, reports (see the entire article):
"WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes plunged last month to their lowest level in more than 12 years, a grim testament to the problems plaguing the housing sector.
"The Commerce Department reported Friday that new-home sales tumbled by 9 percent in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000. That was the worst showing since April 1995, when the pace of sales was 621,000.
"The sales pace for November was much weaker than economists were expecting. They were predicting sales in the weakest sector of the economy to drop by around 1.8 percent, to a pace of 715,000.
"The median sales price of a new home dipped to $239,100 in November. That is 0.4 percent lower than a year ago. The median price is where half sell for more and half for less.
Well, Christmas, Chanukkah, and Kwanza 2008 have come and gone. Now, Election 2008 is in earnest.
The economy does not bode well for the Repugnants in 2008. For several months now, the housing market in Palm Springs, and in California as a whole has lagged in the doldrums. According to the The Desert Real Estate Report, the current housing price trend in Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley is positive, but the median price of a home in the area is still down 12.8% from the high of $487,000 set in February 2007. The median price of condos is down 10.4% from the high of $385,000 set in March 2006. Condo sales are down 10.2% month-to-month, down 25.4% compared to November 2006. Year-to-date, condo sales are off 22.7%.
Waiters and service industry employees discuss the failing local economy, empty tables, and declining earnings that suggest decreasing revenues for hotels, resorts, and restaurants in Palm Springs and the other resort communities. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar with respect to the Canadian currency could damage the one source of increasing tourism and revenue.
This week, Target, Sears, and other retailers announced less-than-expected retail sales and sales increases during the just-finished holiday shopping season. Visitors report near-empty malls and retailers during the shopping season. Sure, the retailers are awaiting the cashing-in of the gift cards, and, sure, Amazon.com announced enormous sales increases over 2006, but the writing is on the wall. U.S. retailers are suffering. And, when retailers suffer during the holiday season, the U.S. economy suffers.
The Repugnant social experiment with sub-prime mortgages as a means of stimulating the housing market and the economy during the run-up to the elections of 2004 and 2006 has created a world-wide drift towards recession. The New York Times states:
"The business of lending money to the millions of Americans with tarnished credit ratings -- or none at all -- has always been a walk on capitalism's wild side."
December 20, 2007 - Palm Springs Village Fest Voter Registration and Candidate Information Tabling at Palm Canyon & Arenas, Palm Springs, CA, Thursday nights from 6:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. (Adult beverages enjoyed thereafter at the local pubs).
A chilly desert night became a cold desert night while proud, progressive, Democrats joined helped throngs of locals, visitors, and prospective voters understand the shift of the Coachella Valley from red to purple with blue in the offing.
The Democratic clubs were represented as usual with Desert Stonewall Democrats (DSD) staffing the tables thanks to George Zander, President of DSD, Bob Silverman, Treasurer of DSD, and Randy. Re full disclosure, BluePalmSpringsBoyz iz a member of DSD. Eleanor Jackson staffed another table for the Democrats of the Desert.
More details about Palm Springs Village Fest Voter Registration and Democratic Presidential Candidate Tabling below the flip...
Local political activists in Palm Springs and in the Coachella Valley have long been critical of Rep. Mary Bono for her absentee status. It seems apparent that Bono only comes to Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley now to raise money. Otherwise, where is she? Florida? She's certainly not on the floor of the House of Representatives. For fuck sake (no pun intended), she was galavanting around Florida rather than voting to override President Bush's veto of SCHIP.
Now, locals are discussing Bono's penchant for social climbing and manipulation in quickly transforming and transitioning from one marriage (Baxely), to the next (Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono), and to the next (Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-FL) as the situation demanded. Amazing how many marriages these so-called family values candidates can have, right Rudy?
Yours truly identified and related to the local progressive Democratic activists at Palm Springs' Village Fest what Bono's agenda appears to be. (1) Continue to date Rep. Mack IV, R-FL. (2) Marry Mack . (3) Encourage Mack to run for Sen. Bob Graham's seat when he retires (bear in mind that Mack's father was a Senator in FL and has great name recognition in FL and in the US). (4) Encourage Mack to then run for the Presidency. (5) Become First Lady.
Hillary has absolutely nothing on Baxely Bono Mack IV. Just sayin'.
December 13, 2007 - Palm Springs Village Fest Voter Registration and Candidate Information Tabling at Palm Canyon & Arenas, Palm Springs, CA, Thursday nights from 6:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. (Adult beverages enjoyed thereafter at the local pubs).
Very chilly desert nights and very hot progressive Democrats feted throngs of locals, visitors, and prospective voters.
The Democratic clubs were represented as usual with Desert Stonewall Democrats (DSD) staffing one table thanks to George Zander, President of DSD, Bob Silverman, Treasurer of DSD, and Tracy Turner, Vets for Peace. (Full disclosure: BlueBeaumontBoyz iz a member of DSD.) Eleanor Jackson staffed the table of the Democrats of the Desert.
Greg Rodriguez made an unexpected visit to the Registration and Candidate Information tabling with his two boys in tow. Rodriguez is an activist with the Hillary Clinton for President campaign, Yes on Measure E School Bond Issue, and is expected to run for school board in the Palm Springs Unified School District. But, more importantly, the boys were a hit as usual with the Democrats. One wanted to know why the stop lights were not functioning on Palm Canyon. BlueBeaumontBoyz suggested that he bring it up to Caltrans and to the local Department of Transportation (the lights are non-functioning during Village Fest). Rodriguez overheard and cautioned that the boys were likely to vocalize their concerns at the next City Council meeting. Two more articulate and victorious Democratic candidates in the making, we are sure.
Rob Simmons, member of the Palm Springs Airport Commission and an activist with the Barack Obama for President campaign also joined the DSD attendees in a spirited discussion re the current Presidential campaign and the early caucus and primary states. Richard Oberhaus, campaign manager of the Greg Pettis for 80th Assembly District campaign discussed the progress of the campaign, upcoming endorsements, and Pettis' amazing 50th Birthday celebration on Sunday in Cathedral City.
Rodriguez, Simmons, and Oberhaus discussed the upcoming January 3, 2008, Iowa Caucus viewing party planned for Look in Palm Springs. More details to follow.
George Zander, President of the Desert Stonewall Democrats, ran a great meeting today. The montly DSD meeting took place at the Desert Pride Center and had between 45 and 50 progressive Democratic political activists in attendance.
Those in attendance included Bob Thomas, Co-Chair of the Palm Springs Democratic Club, Steve Pougnet, newly-elected mayor of Palm Springs, Ginny Foat, Palm Springs City Councilwoman, elected last week as Palm Springs Mayor Pro-Tem, and Palm Springs power-broker, Rick Hutcheson newly-elected Palm Springs City Councilman, Craig Ewing, Palm Springs Planning Director and newly-elected boardmember of the Desert Water Agency, and April Hildner from No on C. John Williams, an appointed Palm Springs Historic Site Preservation boardmember and defeated candidate for Palm Springs City Council, Greg Pettis, Mayor Pro-Tem of Cathedral City and candidate for the CA 80th Assembly District to replace the termed out Bonnie Garcia, Richard Oberhaus, Pettis' Campaign Manager, Paul Marchand, Cathedral City Councilmember, Greg Rodriguez from Yes on Measure E and the Hillary Clinton for President campaign, Robert Simmons, Palm Springs Airport Commissioner and supporter of the Barack Obama for President campaign, and Paul Clay and David Hunsicker, candidates for the CA 45th Congressional District to replace Mary Bono also attended.
Mary Bozo...er...Bono, Sometimes Congresswoman in the CA-45, has apparently missed some more votes on the floor of the House of Representatives. Guess that she was too busy getting support from Connie Mack, R-FL, to vote on these important bills.\
I just received this summary from Jim Reynolds, political activist involved in the Desert Stonewall Democrats. The information that Jim provided is originally from The Nation.
On Wednesday the House passed this $51.2 billion bill to fund the Departments of Transportation and Housing and Urban Development for the 2008 fiscal year.
The House approved legislation to grant the Department of Defense four months' worth of emergency funding for the War in Iraq, under the condition that troop redeployment begins 30 days following the bill's enactment.
On May 4, 2007, CNN.com reported that Iraq combat veterans including Armed Forces members, Reservists, and mercenaries (i.e., 'contractors') were returning from the occupation of Iraq and the Iraqi Civil War with increased symptoms of anxiety, depression, and combat stress.
Soldiers who deployed more than six months or multiple times were more likely to screen positive for a mental health issue, the survey found.
"Effective small unit leadership" -- or when officers closest to the troops did a good job -- promoted better mental health, according to the survey.
Results concerning combat stress in the latest survey were similar to those from a more extensive study of veterans who sought care from the Department of Veterans Affairs after returning from combat in Iraq or Afghanistan. (Full story)
In that study, published in the March 12 issue of Archives of Internal Medicine and carried out by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, and the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center, 31 percent of more than 100,000 veterans studied were diagnosed with mental or psychological problems.
Post-traumatic stress disorder was the most common condition reported, affecting 13 percent of all Iraq or Afghanistan veterans who sought VA services, according to the study.
That's slightly less than the 15.2 percent tallied for veterans of the Vietnam War, but far above the 3.5 percent reported in the general population.
More recently, in an article dated November 14, 2007, from HealthDay News, the number of returning troops needing mental health services has risen sharply.
