John Doolittle will address the media at 10:30 am about his intentions. Regardless of what he decides to do, I don't think it's a controversial statement that the best candidate we have running as a challenger for Congress in California this year is Charlie Brown. He has the candidate experience, the most assured stance on the issues, and the money, but most important he has the right perspective, by not waiting until 2009 to lead but doing it every single day. The donation of a percentage of his fundraising to aid the care of our veterans is one of the more inspired displays of leadership I've seen out of someone running for political office. So let's not forget that, no matter what happens.
UPDATE by Brian: The Bee is now reporting that the presser is to announce his retirement at the end of his current term.
UPDATE II: With Doolittle out, the rumors have him selected former Rep. Rico Oller to be the GOP nominee. Given Doolittle's need to retire to avoid being slaughtered in the district, why should we expect his endorsement to carry any weight? We know that this will be a wild primary on the Republican side. Eric Egland and 2006 Doolittle Mike Holmes are already in, and State Assemblyman Ted Gaines and possibly even former Rep. Doug Ose could follow. This will be a bloody primary and I don't think anyone will be anointed. Meanwhile, Charlie Brown keeps raising money and meeting the voters. You can give a donation today at our ActBlue page if you like.
UPDATE III: Charlie Brown's statement:
Roseville: In response to today's announcement that Representative John Doolittle will not seek re-election, CD4 Congressional Candidate and Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown issued the following statement:
"I believe John did the right thing today for his family, for the 4th District and for America . Now is the time to unite as Americans, heal our wounds and move forward to solve the many difficult challenges we face both here in CD4, and across the country we love."
The Hill is reporting that friends and colleagues - including former Rep. Richard Pombo - are urging John Doolittle to resign.
Republican operatives fear that if Doolittle does not retire at the end of this Congress and survives what would be a bruising GOP primary, they will lose the nine-term lawmaker's seat. Doolittle is under an ethics cloud, having had his Virginia house investigated by the FBI last year. Several prominent Republicans are seeking to defeat him in the primary.
According to three well-placed Republican sources, former Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) - who lost his seat amid ethics allegations - has called on longtime friend Doolittle to not seek reelection in the interest of keeping the district a GOP stronghold. In the last Congress, Pombo was a panel chairman while Doolittle was a member of GOP leadership.
This suggests that the decision has not yet been made by Doolittle, but that the GOP establishment has a definite interest in telling everybody that he's decided to resign to force the issue. Of course, California Republicans have been calling on Doolittle to be a good soldier and step down for quite a while, so it's unclear how much of this is new news. It remains to be seen what will happen, and I'll wait to see what the man himself will say.
DavidNYC on the Swing State Project found a listing of the 40 Repugnant-held Congressional seats targeted thus far by the DCCC. The seats include those for John Doolittle-to-Nothing, CA-04, David Dreier, gay in Palm Springs gay resorts and straight in the CA-26, and Brian Bilbray, CA-50.
Missing is the CA-45 where Mary Bono has been absentee-Congresswoman since dating Connie Mack, R-FL. Bono Mack is now thought to be leaning towards moving to FL and eventually running for Mack's seat when he runs against for Bill Nelson's, D-FL, U.S. Senate seat. This would allow the termed-out Bonnie Garcia, R-CA, Assemblywoman from the CA 80th Assembly District to run for U.S. Congress.
Here is DavidNYC's find:
Mon Dec 24, 2007 at 12:12 AM EST
The subscription-only Roll Call bagged an interview with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen last week. Van Hollen explained that the D-Trip has plans (at least, as of now) to target forty Republican-held seats. Frustratingly, Roll Call didn't reproduce the list online, but did include it in their print edition. Fortunately, were able to snag it from p. 15 of the PDF version on their website (note: this link will probably not point to the proper issue as of Jan. 7th, 2008):
This is big news. Roll Call's articles require subscription, but I'll link to DKos diarist (and friend of Calitics) RandySF's description. Basically Chris Van Hollen is announcing that the DCCC, the campaign arm for House Democrats, will be targeting 40 seats to start in the 2008 election, 31 of them held by Republican incumbents and 9 of them open seats. The amazing thing is that 3 of those seats are here in California. On the top 40 list for the D-Trip are:
What this means is that the DCCC will support financially challengers to those seats, and encourage Democratic donors to do the same. Now, the D-Trip has a mixed record in getting involved in Congressional races. In 2006 some of the seats they contested most strongly were lost at the expense of some strong progressive challengers who were beat by a mere handful of votes, and could have used the money. But looking at the list, I perceive a shift from Rahm Emanuel's style to Chris Van Hollen. I think Van Hollen is rewarding strong candidates who have a chance to win. Netroots-endorsed candidates like Linda Stender, Darcy Burner, Gary Trauner, Dan Maffei, Eric Massa and Larry Kissell are on the list. So I am hopeful that this is not the case of a push to get a bunch of Bush Dogs into office.
What this also shows is the faith in California to have some competitive targets in 2008. The partisan gerrymander is supposed to negate any attempt at flipping seats out here, but times have changed. John Doolittle is so ethically compromised that his idea of good news these days is believing his case will be delayed by a year while they fight a subpoena in the courts. David Dreier is completely out of touch with his district, and Brian Bilbray doesn't even live there. So we will see some opportunities in California in 2008. And this is great news for Charlie Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham, as they have been validated as national players. I hope that they remain true to their beliefs and run these races their way, however, and not the way the national consultants tell them.
Not to toot my own horn, but these have consistently been the top three pickup opportunities in my Congressional roundups. :)
The John Doolittle retirement party is remaining the social event of 2008 in California. But check out the language used by the Placer County GOP Chair on a recent NRCC poll of John Doolittle and Charlie Brown:
The poll shows that [Doolittle] is in a statistical dead heat with Brown at this point.
In politics, if your candidate is ahead, you say that even if it is within the margin of error. If you are behind but withing the margin of error, you say exactly what Tom Hudson said.
This is huge news for Charlie Brown. He's a challenger neck and neck this far out in a Democratic year with a broke incumbent and NRCC. I think Hudson knows this, either that or he is inept when it comes to spinning:
(Big news here. If Doolittle is leaving, I'd rather someone personally tied to him like Rico Oller get the nomination. Pretty much every Republican in that region is tied to the Doolittle machine in one way or another, so that would still be a factor in the race. Obviously, though, things get much more difficult for Charlie Brown in an open seat scenario. - promoted by David Dayen)
Hank Shaw has just put up a post on his blog saying that his sources have John Doolittle resigning:
I am hearing from my Sacramento Valley friends that John Doolittle is about to step down and will ultimately endorse Rico Oller, who apparently owns lots of property in Doolittle's 4th District. Oller would still have to get past Assemblyman Ted Gaines of Roseville and Eric Egland of Rocklin. Rico is definitely conservative, and if he has the blessing of the NorCal GOP machine that Doolittle has created, he should immediately become the favorite in that primary.
Hardly unexpected but also not good news for Charlie Brown...
[UPDATE]: Hank has just put up a clarification. His sources have Doolittle withdrawing from the 2008 race, not resigning. Still not good news for Democrats.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
The top administrative officer in the House has been subpoenaed for e-mails related to the ongoing criminal investigation of Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.), according to a notification read on the House floor Thursday.
The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued the subpoena to Daniel P. Beard, the chief administrative officer of the House, whose office oversees electronic communications for members of Congress and their staff.
"The subpoena was issued in connection with the Justice Department investigation of Congressman Doolittle and seeks material from e-mail backup tapes maintained by the CAO," according to a notification of the subpoena.
It's almost a game now; will there be more people subpeonad than will vote for him in the Republican primary?
AKA the media. John Doolittle (CA-04, Roseville) thinks knows the media is the cause of all of his problems. It's not the DOJ, not the fact that he took money from some pretty shady characters, it's the "press". But, don't worry media types, ol 15% Johnny's still got your back on the shield law:
"Much as I love the press," he said, with a scornful emphasis on the P word, "I decided it was appropriate to support this, because I think there needs to be some limits to executive authority, and I think that the freedom of the press is a real check on government power. Although I sometimes wonder about the bias and impartiality of the press. I wonder about it all the time, not sometimes. It's clear in my mind it exists." (SacBee 10/22/07)
Wow, what a benevolent figure John Doolittle is...
This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around. Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand. The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges. So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008. And saying "Hello, I'm a Republican member of Congress" just doesn't rake in the money like it used to. Here's the list:
John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter. And Doolittle's problems are well-documented.
Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven't fully stepped up. Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don't have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay. But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.
Man is Doolittle getting smacked around by the local paper on his fundraising and legal problems. These two paragraph are a beautiful sight to see in the Auburn Journal. This was printed on Monday, but just saw it now.
Doolittle, whose ninth term in Congress has been marred by a Justice Depart-ment investigation related to his ties with imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff, trailed during the July-to-September period, pulling in $54,908.
Doolittle's third quarter fund-raising and expenditures left his campaign with $37,995 in cash on hand. Brown, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel from Roseville, was sitting by the end of September with $382,000 in cash on hand, a spokesman said Monday.
Got that. Doolittle: marred, Justice Dept investigation, Jack Abramoff. Brown: USAF Lt. Col. ret, sitting on cash in hand. Nice!
Faced with a 100:1 cash disadvantage for his re-election bid, GOP leaders are trying to show John Doolittle the door.
Muck-encrusted Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA) is in so much political trouble that GOP leaders are convinced he has no chance of winning reelection next year and are privately urging him to retire, according to Roll Call (sub. reqd.) [...]
According to the paper, House GOP leaders held off on urging Doolittle to drop his reelection plans, hoping that he'd voluntarily decide to retire over the summer. But when Doolittle pressed ahead with reelection efforts, GOP leaders -- worried about losing an otherwise safe seat -- privately sat down with him and told him the game's over. No word on what Doolittle will do yet.
Of course, GOP leaders told Larry Craig the game's over, so that's not a guarantee.
Doolittle has maintained his innocence and his intent to press forward with re-election plans. And that stubbornness intestinal fortitude should be encouraged!
It's deadline day for 3rd quarter FEC reports, and the one I was really waiting for was from Charlie Brown. He didn't disappoint.
Cash raised in Q3: $212,091
Total cash raised this cycle: $495,830 (wow!)
Cash on hand: $382,767
Media's not cheap in that district, but certainly nowhere near as expensive as in many other parts of the state. So this is an even bigger haul, comparatively.
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Doolittle is refusing to turn over 11 years worth of documents to the FBI, which were recently subpoenaed, as part of the ongoing probe into Jack Abramoff. This will set up a constitutional crisis over the ability of the Executive Branch to request documents from the Legislative Branch. Yes, this was an issue with the raid on William Jefferson's office last year. AP (over at TPM). h/t to jeremybloom
Prosecutors recently demanded documents from Doolittle and five staffers, the congressman said. The subpoenas seek "virtually every record including legislative records" for the past 11 years, Doolittle's attorney David Barger said in a news release issued Thursday by the congressman's office.
There is more from Doolittle's lawyer below the fold. The AP story does not have any quotes from Justice. I look forward to hearing constitutional experts weigh in on this case. At the very least, it seems like Doolittle has something to hide, or else why defy the subpoena?
Well Dirty Doolittle was served with a broad subpoena for records going back 11 years. http://talkingpoints...
He says he will fight it. Separation of Powers. I hope he does. Fight it long and hard.
And as the 3Q is wrapping up, please remember the honest democrat running against him. Charlie Brown. Please contribute at one of these Act Blue pages. http://www.actblue.c...
The list by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington names 18 Republicans and four Democrats.
Doolittle, whose connections to lobbyist Jack Abramoff are the subject on a Justice Department investigation, said the listing was an underhanded attempt to attack him from a liberal Democrat organization funded by billionaire activist George Soros.
"I just really think it's unfair and wrong for an underhanded and vile organization like CREW, who disagrees with me because I'm a conservative Republican, to attack me on that," he said. "Because of the atmosphere right now, it's a very impactful thing."
Doolittle has said he has done nothing wrong and wants the Justice Department investigation to come to a conclusion to clear his name. With a new congressional election coming in November 2008, Doolittle is already facing a Democrat challenger who ran a surprisingly strong campaign against him in 2006.
There's the obligatory Soros reference, the dismissal of any criticism as partisan, but also the admission that CREW's list, which includes 4 Democrats along with 18 Republicans, is "impactful." That's because he can't argue with any of the findings so he attacks the source.
By the way, Auburn Journal, it's a DEMOCRATIC challenger. And his name is Charlie Brown. You can donate to him through the Calitics ActBlue page and then come down to one of our Q3Quarterly events tonight.
Everyone needs to read dengre's latest diary on a 1999 Congressional delegation that went to Saipan to check up on the abuses, but instead turned into an opportunity for certain Congressmen to get "serviced" by the prostitutes there.
