UPDATE: One correction from the comments. Both Dana Rohrabacher and John Campbell are from Irvine and may well be in the race for this seat. If that's the case, the June primary may be far more interesting than what I've indicated in the post. Dems would likely stick to Kang, but DTS are a big wildcard. Who knows who emerges from that 3-way tussle to fight in November.
We still aren't sure exactly what the district lines will be, but we do know that a perhaps newly competitive Orange County district based in Irvine will have a real race. The popular Mayor of Irvine, Sukhee Kang, has announced that he is running for the seat.
"I look forward to running in California's new open primary system in which all candidates are on the same ballot, and every voter regardless of party registration can vote for any candidate." Kang said.
"As someone who has served in local government for close to a decade, I will bring a direct, hands-on approach and vast regional experience to Congress. Our district deserves a representative who will protect and fight for the interests of the people of Orange County," said Kang.
Kang was the first Korean-American Mayor of a major US City (Irvine is the 96th largest US City) and is a well-known figure throughout the Korean-American Community. The top-2 race seems unlikely to have a major impact in this race, as you wouldn't expect to have any high-profile challengers to either Campbell or Kang within their own parties. We'll likely see a Kang/Campbell showdown in November in the same way we did last year. You would think Campbell would win the lower-turnout June primary, but who knows what our election schedule next year will really look like.
Kang is a serious candidate for this race, and fits the district. He certainly won't contend with Rep. Barbara Lee on the progressive spectrum, but he would represent that district in a far more pragmatic and less dogmatic way than John Campbell.
With a conventional wisdom that would make David Broder blush, the New York Times issued a dire warning to Democrats yesterday: 2010 will be a bad year, no incumbent in Congress will be safe, and expect to spend much of the time playing defense. Here in California, progressives should not let such talk intimidate them, and focus on playing offense. No matter how angry voters are at Democrats and Congress, they hate the Republicans even more. California has eight red congressional districts that Obama carried in 2008 (with demographics in their favor), so there's no reason not to have credible challengers everywhere. I met recently with such a candidate - Beth Krom from Orange County's 48th District.
The Stand up America PAC is going after Wilson, in addition to other Republican lightning rod Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Jean Schmidt (Ohio), John Campbell (Calif.) and Minority Whip Eric Cantor.
I think the Crazy Five has a better ring to it. And it's not shocking to find John Campbell on this list. He's my representative and sure, I'm used to the crazy here in Orange County but not only is his time up, but we have an amazing candidate to run against him.
A slight pause in your all-budget all the time Calitics. User mbayrob posted this in the open thread, but IMHO, it is worthy of its own thread. So, here it is, John Campbell hemming and hawing when asked about the "birther" claims that Barack Obama wasn't really born in the United States. This is despite the fact that Obama has released his birth certificate which has been duly certified by the State of Hawaii.
Yet Rep. John Campbell is once again using these weasel words to give foundation to, as Chris Matthews called them, the crazies in the Republican Party. You might notice that Campbell was not co-sponsoring such a bill when the president at issue was George W Bush, but alas, we need certainty! Like, um, a birth certificate showing that he was born in Hawaii.
Meanwhile, Irvine Mayor Beth Krom, a Democrat, is running for the 48th Congressional District in 2010.
So the first quarter of fundraising for the 2010 cycle ended, and this week the reports were filed. Swing State Project has a good roundup. Here's what I found interesting:
• In CA-48, Beth Krom had an unusually strong quarter, considering she entered the race in the middle of it. She raised $63,000 for the quarter, actually beating the incumbent, John Campbell, who raised $55,000. Now, in 2008 candidates like Nick Leibham and Debbie Cook beat their incumbent counterparts in fundraising repeatedly, but had major disadvantages in cash on hand because the incumbents had assembled war chests from prior fundraising. And that's the case here too - Campbell has $300,000 CoH, while Krom has $61,000, a 5-to-1 advantage. But to beat Campbell so early in the cycle shows a lot of potential.
• Debbie Cook, Charlie Brown and Bill Durston basically raised no money in the quarter, dampening any expectation that they will run again in their respective districts. Durston raised $9,000, but that was probably all before he hinted at dropping out due to medical troubles.
• In CA-44, Bill Hedrick may be getting national attention, but he's not raising national numbers, and if he continues to put up $14,000 for a quarter, the D-Trip will either walk away or look for another challenger. I respect the hell out of Hedrick but he's got to do better than that.
• CA-37 is absolutely ripe for a primary challenge. Noted deadbeat Laura Richardson raised a paltry $28,500, as an incumbent, and her $39,000 cash on hand is dwarfed by $363,000 in debt. We deserve better than Laura Richardson in that very blue district.
• Jerry McNerney put up a $275,000 quarter in CA-11.
• His numbers weren't spectacular, but Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet is drawing some attention for his challenge to Mary Bono Mack in CA-45. This is another "Obama Republican" district, and Pougnet, a gay father of two, has an interesting profile for the district and a proven record in the community. This one bears watching.
Enjoy your weekend, and that is a direct order. Some items:
• The Obama Administration is finalizing the formulas for how much stimulus money will get delivered to each state, and based on my press releases from the White House, it looks like so far, we're getting $42 million dollars from the Dept. of Transportation to fund airport repairs across the state, $48 million from HHS to expand and support community health centers, and $351 million in block grants from the Dept. of Energy to support energy efficiency measures. This last part includes retrofits of community buildings, projects to capture methane from landfills, and financial incentives for weatherization and efficiency projects. Further, the Obama budget would provide direct college aid to 27,547 additional students if passed with current language.
• In CA-32 news, Judy Chu received a few endorsements. She earned the support of the League of Conservation Voters. Then the California Teachers Association endorsed, though given their financial commitment to Prop. 1B it's unclear whether the endorsement will come with any resources. The other was from Baldwin Park Unified School District Board President Blanca Rubio, who had previously announced as a candidate. She dropped out and endorsed Chu.
• Southern California Reps. Howard Berman and Lucille Roybal-Allard introduced this year's version of the DREAM Act in the House, which would offer a path to permanent residency for undocumented students who have spent most of their lives in this country, and would like to apply for college or serve their country in the military. These are good quotes by Berman:
"It makes no sense to me," said Berman, "that we maintain a system that brings in thousands of highly-skilled foreign guest workers each year to fill a gap in our domestic workforce, and at the same time do nothing to provide an opportunity to kids who have grown up here, gone to school here, and want to prepare themselves for these jobs or serve their country in the military. This is the illogical outcome of our current immigration laws that the Dream Act will fix."
"The issues addressed in the American Dream Act", continued Berman, "are just a fraction of the problems in our immigration system. This bill came about because our immigration laws are, and have been for some time, broken. It is my great hope that we will put together a comprehensive immigration reform package that includes the Dream Act as it was introduced today, and it is my intention to work for and pass that comprehensive immigration reform package this year."
• Please read Charles Lemos' amazing post about recent events in Oakland. And by the way, the Modesto Bee Ed Board gets it completely wrong - the fact that Lovelle Mixon responded violently because he missed a parole meeting doesn't argue for more stringent parole, it argues for a less insane system where parolees don't feel like hopeless fugitives because they miss one meeting.
• This is completely embarrassing work by the LA Times. Apparently they've fired all the headline writers or something.
• CalPERS wants a better deal on its hedge fund investments. They are demanding lower rates and more transparency from funds in which the massive pension fund invests in.
• OC Progressive has more than you need to know about Rep. John Campbell and his friends the Ponzi schemers, including Asm. Diane Harkey.
Beth Krom goes up with her interim website and invites folks to her first fund-raiser on March 22nd.
The current Congressman, has been a national laughingstock for his comments about Atlas Shrugged finally coming true, but Beth Krom's opening email also includes one amazing fact about John Campbell.
In four years as Mayor, I was never once contacted by Congressman Campbell to express interest in, or offer assistance on our community priorities. He never attended a single city event, nor did he ever contact me to commend the city on any of our achievements. If the largest city in the 48th District is not being served, what hope is there for the other cities in the district?
What can you say about the arrogance of a Congressman who never once shows up or talks to the Mayor of the largest city in the district? At least Rohrabacher occasionally shows up at stuff to rant about immigrants and deny the science of climate change.
Last week, OC Progressive (which has really attracted a good group of writers and provided a vital progressive voice in Orange County) revealed that Beth Krom, an Irvine City Councilwoman, is considering a run against Rep. John Campbell. In a subsequent post, Joe Shaw explained why Krom would make a worthy challenger.
She can win elections.
Beth Krom has won five campaigns, In 2006, she garnered 60% of the vote in her re-election as Mayor and in 2008, won her current City Council seat with 8000 votes more than the next candidate.
She gets things done.
We need elected officials who have experience getting things done for their constituents. Beth Krom is a strong advocate for environmental stewardship. Her vote was instrumental in cleaning up the water along the Orange County coast: she was the first "inland" representative to advocate for full secondary treatment of the effluent the OC Sanitation District pumped out into the ocean and was the "swing vote" in getting the board to fund implementation.
She's a visionary.
Beth Krom understands that Orange County needs leadership that will advance innovative, integrated transit solutions, sustainable development practices and green technology and jobs initiatives.
She can work across party lines.
Beth Krom has the respect of so many people throughout Orange County because she works with people, regardless of political affiliation, to get things done.
Irvine is one of America's best run cities.
What other Orange County elected, at the local, state or federal level, can lay claim to the legacy of forward-thinking leadership that Beth Krom has provided in the City of Irvine? "Safest City in America" four years straight; a balanced budget and more than tripling city reserves during her term as Mayor, and advancing a project of regional importance - the Orange County Great Park.
I'm a little gun-shy to out and out predict victory in these California Congressional races. We are know that they are tough slogs, and were disappointed by the performance of many promising candidates last cycle. Nonetheless, we cannot leave these red areas behind, and there's no question that the threat of candidates like Bill Durston and Debbie Cook forced the national GOP to spend money where they didn't want to spend it, leading to other losses around the country. Everything is connected, and thus solid candidates should continue to be recruited everywhere.
What's more, President Obama actually beat John McCain in CA-48, despite the district's Republican tilt. And, far from distinguishing himself, Campbell has most recently looked to Ayn Rand novels for inspiration in setting public policy:
Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.), who gives his departing interns copies of Ayn Rand's novel "Atlas Shrugged," told me today that the response to President Obama's economic policies reminded him of what happened in the 51-year-old novel.
"People are starting to feel like we're living through the scenario that happened in 'Atlas Shrugged,'" said Campbell. "The achievers, the people who create all the things that benefit rest of us, are going on strike. I'm seeing, at a small level, a kind of protest from the people who create jobs, the people who create wealth, who are pulling back from their ambitions because they see how they'll be punished for them."
It would be a terrible thing if the titans of industry that have burned through trillions of dollars in American wealth were to pull back and not be so ambitious, wouldn't it? And it's certainly a rational reaction, to forcibly crumble what's left of the American economy due to an increase of 4 cents in the top marginal tax rates. Even more certainly, there's no question that it would turn out just like the fictional novel - that every high-earner would leave their job and nobody would pick up the slack. Conservatives are nothing if not selfless. And daring, rational men who live by their minds.
This guy is obviously a buffoon, but we know that is sadly not enough in these districts. And repeat candidates, who have built up their name ID and volunteer base, always have a better shot. If I were to forecast the early prospects for a flipped seat in California right now, I would go:
CA-44: Bill Hedrick is already announced as a candidate, and he lost by just 2.6% to Ken Calvert last time.
CA-03: The trendlines in the district are favorable, but it's unclear if Bill Durston will make a third try.
And then, pretty much, nothing, until there's clarity about who's running. Charlie Brown writing an op-ed in the Auburn Journal trashing Tom McClintock suggests he might try again in CA-04, but I'm not sure. Given the current state of affairs, I'd say CA-48 isn't looking too badly, though it's early.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
(I wish we'd hear from all of our challenger candidates more regularly. - promoted by David Dayen)
I am Steve Young, the Democrat challenging John Campbell [R, CA-48] the sixth richest member of congress. My challenge is truly a David vs. Goliath battle -- and we know how that one turned out.
I am writing to ask for your help. Two reasons make the House race in California's 48th district important:
We need a representative with the spine to vote his heart; and
As we have learned from sad experience, we don't have the votes in Washington to pass necessary legislation.
We need a voice - reflective of our values - in the U.S. House in Washington.
John Campbell [R, CA-48] thinks his public attacks on earmarks, including broadsides against Andre Agasi's highly touted charter school in Las Vegas, a Sherwin-Williams research project, John Murtha, and Charles Rangel's education center, mark him as a fiscal conservative for his base. But Campbell's votes in 2006 during the Republican control of the house mark him as a fiscal hypocrite.
Let's be honest about John Campbell [R, Ca-48]. He is not a deficit fighter, but a political hack. He now plays the curmudgeon on earmarks, but his 2006 voting record under the Republican majority in Congress is a different story. For example, Campbell voted, without a hint of objection to ridiculous earmarks like: $1 million for Southern and Eastern Kentucky Tourism Department; $250,000 for the Montana World Trade Center; $300,000 for the Bronx Council for Marketing of Local Business Art Initiatives; $250,000 for the Bronx On-Water Learning Program; $3 million for the OPERATIONS OF THE OFFICE ON RIGHT-SIZING THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT'S OVERSEAS PRESENCE.
John Campbell's claims fiscal superiority, but his votes in 2006 belie a different motive. duc de La Rochefoucauld (1613-1680) said, "Hypocrisy is the homage vice pays to virtue." Campbell is the classic proof of the statement.
Political pressure on GOP Rep. John Doolittle grew Wednesday as a fellow California House Republican said it would be best if Doolittle didn't run for re-election.
GOP Rep. John Campbell of Orange County became the first House member to say publicly Wednesday what other lawmakers and aides are saying privately - that Doolittle should step aside and not run for re-election.
"I am very concerned about the situation in that district and our ability to comfortably hold what is a safe Republican district," Campbell said in an interview with The Associated Press.
"Certainly the polling shows that he's in a difficult position and I do think it would be best if he didn't seek re-election," Campbell said.
Here's the good news: Doolittle's response.
Doolittle was defiant in a written statement responding to Campbell's comments.
"I hope John Campbell never has to experience what Julie and I have been going through the past 3 and a quarter years," he said. "If he ever does, he will truly understand how frustrating it can be for people to attack your honor and integrity."
And the chair of the Republican delegation in California, himself a target in 2008, came running to Doolittle's aid:
The head of the California Republican House delegation, Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas, offered words of support Wednesday.
"It's up to John Doolittle and John Doolittle says he's running for re-election," Dreier said. "And obviously he's got lots of challenges with which he's trying to deal, but he's a good, hardworking member and we'll see what happens. It's very early on."
Expect "Dreier and Doolittle: Perfect Together" to come up in CA-26 messaging.
I love "Republicans in disarray" stories, don't you?
This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around. Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand. The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges. So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008. And saying "Hello, I'm a Republican member of Congress" just doesn't rake in the money like it used to. Here's the list:
John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter. And Doolittle's problems are well-documented.
Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven't fully stepped up. Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don't have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay. But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.
Join us and our panel as we look at the status of energy today and the policy and scientific solutions. Are you worried about peak oil? Feel a squeeze from high gas prices? Come to the Science Cafe Energy Forum and participate in a panel discussion on energy and the issues we face today.
Panel:
- U.S. Rep. John Campbell (R-Newport Beach)
- Dr. Mark Musculus, Sandia National Laboratories California
- Mr. Jim Maclay, Doctoral Candidate (LEED Certified), UC Irvine National Fuel Cell Research Center
Moderator:
Mr. Pat Brennan, Environment Editor, The Orange County Register
Follow me after the flip for all the details about today's event...
I saw that a bankruptcy judge sided with Brea and against bankrupt Tower Records' attempt to lease their 30,000 square foot space to Walgreens:
"There are a lot of places in our city where a Walgreens would be great," O'Donnell said. "But not in an entertainment/restaurant district."
A drugstore? Eeeewww...how tawdry! People with illnesses picking up prescriptions! Can't possibly have that across the street from the multiplex!
Have we come to this? Local government inserting itself into the free marketplace to the extent of deciding where it is and isn't appropriate to put a drugstore?
I really don't know. I'll leave that judgment call to you.
- Who's Breaking the Law Now?. The Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals faults the Orange County Sheriff's Department in its detention of an inmate who was cuffed to a hospital bed. The OC Register has more.
- Gingrich (Finally!!) Says He's a Cheater! OK, so this is not a purely Orange County story... But still, Dan Chmielewski has something to say about it at The Liberal OC. : )
This just in from our friend Fleischman at Flash Report:
The FlashReport would like to congratulate the three members of California's Congressional delegation who have been tapped with 'high honors' from the National Taxpayers Union -- receiving their coveted "Taxpayer Friends" rating... And the winners are... Dana Rohrabacher, Ed Royce and our own FR Beltway Correspondent John Campbell!!
OK! So I guess if you're a best buddy of Jack Abramoff, or you have the state buy you a Mustang Saleen AFTER YOU ANNOUNCE YOUR RUN FOR CONGRESS (!!!), or you direct a $300,000 State Department grant to a Russian hospitality school run by your wife's employer, then you're a "Taxpayer Friend"...
Want to find out more? Follow me after the flip...
Here are some wild and wonderful stories from behind the Orange Curtain, and and across the Land of the OC, that will make you laugh, cry, and scratch your head in total disbelief:
- Congressman Oblivious. Guess who said this about Iraq: "We are in a long war with people…who want to kil [sic] us. No one has yet offered an alternative plan." Wow, so I guess the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report doesn't count? Ah, more wisdom from the same person who proclaimed that "Baghdad is safer than Washington, D.C." Dan Chmielewski has more at The Liberal OC.
- Mr. NAMBLA goes to court. Jeff Nielsen is a hard-core Republican Party activist... And he is a pedophile. Well, he was recently caught with his pants down... And now, his trial begins. Hmmm... And the GOP is supposed to be the party of "moral values"?
The excitement is building in so many races and it's becoming difficult to figure out who to support they're flipping so fast. Let’s add another one to that list and this one wasn’t even close a short time ago and this poll DOES NOT include this latest Foleygate/Pagegate Republican meltdown.
This district is so red that everyone wrote it off especially after the special election but no more. This one is for the taking. The poll below shows clearly that exposure is all we need. We rarely have such definitive indicators but here they are.
Oh and rumor has it that based on this poll the Big Dog - yes, that Big Dog - is seriously considering coming out later this month to stand with Steve. 'Nuff said for now. Now, let's show that we can make a difference so that others will know we mean business.
Visit our blog here. Marcos wants to see action for a grass roots campaign before he gets excited. Well, look at this.
And go to his site to read all about his positions and other interesting information.
I’ve written about Steve Young in the past here. Read this to get an idea of how great a candidate Steve is and that he’s the right guy to take a seat that has not been held by a Democrat in a very long time.
