Tomorrow's the big day (depending on your perspective I suppose), with local, legislative and proposition votes going on all over the state and the Montana and South Dakota primaries wrapping up the Presidential calendar. There's speculation that Sen. Clinton will suspend her campaign tomorrow night, plus an easy dozen congressional primaries to watch, the Leno/Migden/Nation battle royale, I'm masochistically fascinated by the San Diego mayoral race- the list goes on.
It looks like I'll be holing up for a bit at the Obama watch party at the W Hotel here in San Diego. I've also heard that local Young Dems will be at The Shore Club and City Council candidate Todd Gloria will be gathering with supporters at The Local. So that's a random and incomplete collection of spots around San Diego...What city/bar/restaurant/corner of your house will you be reporting from as we all obsess tomorrow evening?
Disclosure, I'm proud to do some work for Mark Leno
From a press release:
Sierra Club protests deceptive Joe Nation campaign mailers
Illegal use of Sierra Club logo is trademark infringement
SAN FRANCISCO. May 31, 2008 - The Sierra Club has condemned deceptive campaign mailers for Joe Nation that falsely imply Sierra Club endorsement of Mr. Nation for State Senate District 3 in next Tuesday's election. The Sierra Club also has protested the unauthorized, illegal use of its logo on campaign literature promoting Mr. Nation. The Sierra Club is demanding that these unethical and illegal activities cease immediately.
Resorting to deception usually belies weakness. Full release after the jump.
Today is the last day to register to vote. Personally, I'd like to see same-day registration. After all, we are living in the era of cheap and tiny computers. This is a fundamental fairness issue, legal voters simply should not be turned away. Nonetheless, here's the voter reg SoS page. Other interesting stuff:
Frank Russo writes about a S-USA poll in the Rumble in the Bubble (SD-03). (I do some work for Leno.) Leno leads overall 42 -22(Nation)-21(Migden). Besides the fact that Leno is the only candidate with net favorables, a number of note is the breakdown for "liberal" voters. Leno leads that category 47-21(Migden)-17(Nation).
The Bay Guardian has released the audio of their endorsement interviews at their 2008 spring election center. I'm a big fan of news media outlets releasing such interviews. Good work SFBG!
The elected delegates met yesterday in Sacramento. They talked, chose more delegates, and generally had a good time. The media seems to want to make this some sort of bloodbath, but it seems there was more about unity than anything else.
Another item to be slashed in the next budget: Aid for California's disabled. Perhaps the legislators will go and help some of these Californians themselves? Maybe set up an oxygen tank here, help in the process of dressing there. I think Roger Niello and Mike Villines would be excellent at that. After all, they want to cut these funds, so why not provide a bit of their time in leiu of the money that is so desperately needed. That would help, right? Ok, not so much.
Democrat Lockyer, a former state Senate leader and attorney general, traces California's budget woes back to the 1978 passage of Proposition 13 -- the historic property tax cut -- and Sacramento's subsequent decision to bail out revenue-short local governments and schools.
"We've been bailing the sinking ship ever since," he says. "This may be the year when we have to say, 'OK, we're going to make these awful cuts and voters are going to see what the consequences are.' That's kind of a scorched-earth approach, but people somehow think that the budget is going to be balanced by the tooth fairy.
"I don't like it, but there are days when I think that voters need to persuade themselves and reluctant legislators that cuts like these are unacceptable. It's time to do whatever needs to get done to escape this annual torture."
I'd start by placing a measure on the ballot allowing budgets to be passed by a majority vote -- as they are in 47 other states.
But a two-thirds vote is what's ludicrously required today. So the legislators and governor must deal with it.
As of tonight, it looks like it is indeed a two-way race for the State Seanate District 3. A new Survey USA poll gives Mark Leno a strong lead over with Joe Nation and Carole Migden tied for a distant second place.
Periodically between now and the primaries on June 3, I'll be checking in with some brief election news.
• CA-04: Charlie Brown has released his first ad of the cycle. It's a bio spot, and it's a good one.
I would have liked to have seen some specifics about the veterans care challenge, but I understand that it's well-known inside the district so maybe the allusion to it was all that was necessary. Certainly he's taking an above-the-fray stance in the midst of the brutal primary on the other side. I like it.
• AD-80: I bet you didn't to see CNA and SEIU supporting the same candidate in virtually anything, especially at this sensitive time, but both of them have come out in favor of Manuel Perez, in addition to the California Medical Association PAC.
• At Election Track, you can follow contributions to all of California's candidates as we head to the primary.
• CA-08: Cindy Sheehan says she has $130,000 for her challenge to Nancy Pelosi, running as an independent.
• SD-03: Here's a Joe Nation ad (over the flip) focusing on the environment. Is this running anywhere?
Ok, so last week, I thought all this hubub about the Light Brown Apple Moth was much ado about nothing. I hadn't even seen one, and they didn't seem to be bugging me. So, I didn't get what Arnold's big rush to spray pheremones or what not on to the Bay Area.
Things have changed. Last week a friend of ours was over at our house. It was a fine afternoon, the weather was nice, so we spent the time chatting outside. We get to the conversation of this little moth. Turns out that our friend, a big shot lawyer at a video game company to remain nameless, is the patient zero of the Light Brown Apple Moth scourge upon her city. She claimed they were all over her apartment, and sure enough, we went down there, and there they were. Sneaking around her place. I put the pieces together, she travels all over the world for work, and she has tons of them in her house. How much more evidence do we need? Well, how much more was answered the next day when we saw some of the little buggers around our house. Now the things are all over our house. Apparently the've really taken to the Bay Area, and I'm pretty sure she's the vector.
Now, they don't seem to be really bothering me at this point here in SF, they're just annoying. But, I say, get some helicopters or bush planes, or whatever it takes, in the air, and let's get to dumping all sorts of chemicals on my fair city. What's a little caplet of inhaled pseudo-moth pheremones compared to some bugs in my house? What could possibly go wrong when we drop a chemical on to heavily populated urban areas? Really, I can't think of anything. Sure, some judge said the state can't spray, but whatever, let's do it anyway.
With today being Earth Day, I thought readers would enjoy reading my article about Joe Nation's environmental record.
Ex-Marin Assemblyman and State Senate candidate Joe Nation is working to stay above the fray between Mark Leno and Carole Migden. Despite his moderate record on other issues, he speaks earnestly about the environment and climate change. But why hasn't the Sierra Club endorsed him, and why is he not popular with environmentalists in Marin County? It may be because when Nation was on the Marin Municipal Water District in the late 1990's, he proposed bottling water from Mount Tamalpais, voted for a pipeline to siphon water from the Russian River and supported widening the US-101. Today, Nation is a climate change consultant for ENVIRON, where he primarily advises Coca-Cola - whose environmental record has spawned protests across the globe. Now Coca-Cola runs a corporate green-washing campaign that pushes "water stewardship" - which is code for privatization of a natural resource, while running bottled water plants in California.
Campaign finance reform has been bubbling as an issue for a number of years. And any time someone manages even a small step forward, you know you're going to have the big money corporations, the Club for Growth, and all other manner of rich righties lining up to defend their right to freely spend their money on as much questionable propaganda as they can muster. Normally the battle lines are pretty clear on this, ideologically speaking. That is, of course, unless you subscribe to Sen. Carole Migden's particular brand of "progressivism".
After the Fair Political Practices Commission barred her from accessing more than $640,000 from an old campaign account because, well...she didn't transfer it out of her Assembly campaign account before she left the Assembly (whoops), she sued to get it back. Free political speech, her argument goes, trumps playing by the rules.
And today, a District Court judge agreed. U.S. District Court Judge Edmund Brennan granted a temporary injunction against the FPPC's locking of the account:
I'll be liveblogging the SD-3 regional endorsement battle between Senator Carole Migden, Assemblymember Mark Leno, and former Assemblymember Joe Nation. Stay tuned! This should be fun, horrifying, or a fascinating drama depending on your perspective.
[Update by Lucas] Leno campaign is reporting more than 50 Leno supporter ballots are missing. "Disenfranchisement" is running through the room.
5:41 -- Sorry for the delay. I had connection issues. One of the moderators assured the crowd that "this is a fair and open process, and we will wait for all ballots to be counted." Around 5:30 or so, Leno spoke followed by Migden. Both touted their records as one would expect. Said Leno, "Without choice, there is no accountability. Without accountability, there is no responsibility." Meanwhile, Migden emphasized the gender imbalance in the Senate, concluding her speech with "I am a woman. I am a woman. And let me just say, I still am a woman." Voting officially closed at 5:41, and they say results will be coming in 20 minutes or so.
6:29 -- Counting now. Attention Adam Borelli. You're wanted in room. Currently 15-9 Migden ahead.
6:38 -- Currently 46-27. About 270 in total.
6:47 -- Some dispute over a vote by Migden's folks. It would be a "fair and open process" if the moderators articulated into the microphone a little more! Seriously, I have no clue what that was about. Anyway, we're up to 75-57. Migden still ahead.
7:05 -- 128-97. Migden ahead.
7:13 -- Vote is 149-115 with 2 for Nation, 2 without endorsement, 1 challenge against Leno, 1 questionable, and 2 unmarked. That leaves the unofficial but close enough for this famished soul tally at 55% Migden and 42% Leno. The next step: once the vote is finalized, Leno folks are going to try and gather enough signatures (300) of delegates to remove the endorsement from the consent calendar. If they succeed, the endorsement vote will happen during a general session with all delegates able to vote. The Leno folks have until 11 pm to gather the signatures. Obviously, the missing ballot issue earlier delayed this process a bit. I suspect this isn't the last we've heard of that incident from the Leno campaign.
Everyone has been going on and on about the SD-03 race here, and I'm about as far removed from a vested interest as one could be while still living in California, but it's been good for horserace fun- it's definitely the hot race in the halls here, with mountains of lit from all three sides. It actually reminds me of all the presidential buzz last year, and seems to be overshadowing the Clinton/Obama business so far (at least among the unscientific sample of folks I'm talking to). Joe Nation and Mark Leno have been working the crowds in their way, and Migden, well...she's being herself as well, which from what I hear is at least pretty entertaining. On the flip is the banner she's been running around the CC with, which turned a few heads for using the official seal of the State Senate while campaigning. That's a little sketchy, but then what isn't these days?
[Update by Julia]Sweet Melissa brings us the scene from the Women's Caucus and it is jaw dropping.
We walked in and who was at the podium in front of hundreds of people? Carole Migden! And Mark Leno was standing in the back of the room! I looked around and saw lots of women holding Leno signs and gay men holding Migden signs. And the supporters were heckling each other! Hilarious!
I later learned that this was a meeting of the California Democratic Party Women's Caucus. Migden launched into her speech, which fell pretty flat until she got to the part about how "women should vote for women" and pointed to a group of women in the corner of the room (some of whom were, um...not-petite) who were holding Leno signs and said:
"I mean, are those women or heavy guys?"
I shit you not.
Allow me to repeat that:
"I mean, are those women or heavy guys?"
The room was silent for a second while we all thought the same thing: "Did she just effing say that?" Then the place erupted with boos and curses that did not stop.
Sweet Melissa sums it all up by saying:
To recap: I wasn't here two hours and I saw Migden get booed off the stage at the Women's Caucus. This is going to be good.
Today at 4:30 there will be a potential endorsement vote for Midgen. The rules are different for incumbents then those running for an open seat. She only needs 50%+1 rather than 60%.
[Update by Lucas] Word is that Migden was hammering the same "women need to stick together" line at the Progressive Caucus last night. Always good when we can have an honest debate about the issues...
Even more reasons that the CDP must not endorse Carole Migden.
Randy Shaw wrote this for today's Beyond Chron.
In late February, a David Binder poll found State Senator Carole Migden badly trailing Mark Leno and Joe Nation in the race for Senate District 3. Since that time, Migden agreed to pay $350,000 in fines for state campaign law violations, filed a federal lawsuit against the FPPC challenging campaign finance limits as unconstitutional, and was sued by the FPPC for $9 million in an action that charged, among other violations, that Migden "failed to report a number of large transactions entirely, while reporting other large transactions which simply never occurred." In political trouble before the FPPC's actions, Migden now has no chance to win re-election. She appears to be remaining in the race solely to defeat Leno, a strategy that would put a moderate Democrat from Marin in a seat that would otherwise be held by a San Francisco progressive.
(I've written lots about SD-03, but Randy Shaw is quite knowledgeable about the race and has some interesting news about this poll. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
My boss, Randy Shaw, wrote the following for today's BeyondChron.
A poll taken last week by David Binder found State Senate District 3 a two-way contest between challengers Joe Nation and Mark Leno, with incumbent Carole Migden trailing badly. Binder, who is San Francisco's leading pollster and has been busy surveying for Barack Obama, found that Nation led Leno 27-24% on the initial ask, with Migden trailing at 17%. When pro and con statements about the candidates were read, the Leno-Nation numbers reversed, with Migden remaining at 17%. Joe Alioto Veronese was at 7 and 10%, and nearly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided. The poll spells deep trouble for Migden, who is having fundraising problems and still faces possible legal action by the Fair Political Practices Commission for alleged campaign financing violations. The poll raises the question whether Migden should pull out of the race in order for the seat to remain in the hands of a San Francisco progressive from the queer community - an analysis recently advanced by one of the incumbent's most prominent supporters.
"It's late to be getting in in some respects," Nation said after his announcement in a patch of wetlands near the Petaluma Marina on Saturday. Migden and Leno have been campaigning for more than a year already, while Veronese began only slight later, he said.
But Nation said he was "thrilled" by poll results showing a dead heat between him, Migden and Leno if he entered the race, with lesser known Veronese trailing.
"I know it will be a sprint," he said, but plans to take a leave from his consulting work, allowing more time to campaign. "I more or less have 16 hours a day, seven days a week to work, and I think I can get it done," he said. (Santa Rosa Press-Democrat 2/9/08)
The polls he references are internals, of course, but I'd expect that to be fairly reasonable. Nation has decent, but not great, name ID in the district from his days in the Assembly and from his ill-fated run against progressive Democrat Lynn Woolsey. However, I would imagine that there are a lot of people who remember the guy well. He's a pretty smart guy when it comes to policy, that has never been the question.
The question of how this affects the race are quite numerous. It substantially diminishes Joe Veronese's chances, given that the son of Angela Alioto was trying quite hard to lure those North Bay constituents. Nation's entrance into the race puts that much more incentive for SF to either rally around one candidate, or face the possibility of being represented in the Senate from outside of the County.
Either way, it is even more clear that SD-03 will be the most interesting legislative primary this year.
I don't normally comment too much on the FalseReport. It's just generally not worth my time to quibble with inanities. And my disagreeing with those folks would kind of be a little too expected. So, I generally focus on those who are supposed to be "balanced." But, I've been tempted by this little piece of so-called analysis on SD-03 by Yolo County Supe Matt Rexroad (hey, Yolo, WTF? Do you let just anybody become supervisor?):
In a one on one race with Migden and Leno -- I like Leno's chances. He is every bit as liberal only he is much nicer. That is not saying much. Leno had done a great job of gathering up all of the anti-Migden forces until others started having the same idea.
"Another clinging on to glory days" Alioto jumped into the race. He divides the anti-Migden forces once. Now Joe Nation has opened an account. He is a former Assemblyman from Marin County that might make a play for the Marin County part of the district. He would divide the anti-Migden forces again..and almost certainly hand her re-election.
The problem with this? Well, apparently Mr. Rexroad didn't bother to talk to anybody who knows the district, knows the personalities involved, or do any research whatsoever on this before he wrote this. If he had, he would have seen a few statements like this from people who actually know the San Francisco-based district. From Luke Thomas, a local photographer/journalist:
Conventional wisdom, however, suggests Nation, who lives in San Rafael, will likely draw votes away from incumbent Senator Carole Migden who is already facing stiff challenges from Assemblymember Mark Leno and San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto-Veronese. (FogCityJournal 11.28.07)
Or this analysis from one of the top pollsters in the City, probably the state, David Latterman of Fall Line Analytics :
David Latterman, president of Fall Line Analytics, a San Francisco-based polling company, said Nation's potential entrance into the race "hurts Carole" Migden. That's because while both Migden and Leno are well known in San Francisco, a Nation candidacy could take Marin votes away from Migden, which Leno has never represented, he said. (SacBee CapAlert 11.16.07)
Now, I'm not saying that Mr. Rexroad couldn't be right, it's just that he's not even close to being right. He frames this as a race between Senator Migden vs. Not-Senator-Migden. And that's just not the way this works. Assemblyman Leno and Fmr. Assemblyman Nation both have their own name IDs. Mr. Nation isn't so popular up as he once was in the North Bay considering his primary challenge to Lynn Woolsey. (By the by, Rep. Woolsey doesn't look like she's set to let that incident go so quickly either.)
Oh, and apparently Mr. Rexroad also missed the latest self-injection of cash into Sen. Migden's campaign. The funny thing is here that Mr. Rexroad actually seems to well, dislike Sen. Migden. Now, that's probably a badge of honor for a progressive like the good Senator, but the article is an odd way of stating that distrust. Maybe next time Mr. Rexroad spills pixels, he'll think of making sure that he has a solid grip on the facts.
In a very insightful look at the (expected) 2008 primary campaign with Assemblymember Mark Leno challenging incumbent Senator Carole Migden, Randy Shaw writes:
Migden's inability to mount a serious challenge to Leno's slate of delegates for the California Democratic Party convention reflects her disconnection from the city's activist base. For a sitting Senator to field a slate, then abandon the slate, then deny she ever tried to run a slate, is not a good sign for her chances against Leno in the June 2008 primary.
There was a surreal feel to Leno owning the very same room where Migden once ran Democratic Party Central Committee meetings with an iron fist. But as Shaw notes, the upcoming primary race will be about far more than the traditional San Francisco fight over who is the most left.
KQED's Forum, in an ongoing series on primary coverage, is focusing on the non-major Democrats today. In its first hour, Susan Rasky will be discussing the Democratic primary for governor. In the second hour, the program will focus on the CA-06 primary. Joe Nation and Lynn Woolsey are duking it out in a race I covered yesterday.
UPDATE: Nathaniel (who did predictions for Constitutional Offices, the Assembly, and the Senate on Calitics) predicted a bunch of other races on dKos today. In response to his prediction that Woolsey would trounce Nation, I did a little thinking. In my comment, I said this:
It's really too bad b/c I think Nation kicked her ass in the debate (it's streamed online. You can get more info on the race at Calitics. He just seems a lot smarter than her. Her basic argument is that I'm liberal as him, why lose the seniority? Well, I think sometimes liberals should consider who will be most effective in addition to liberal values. Look, Lynn Woolsey has been a good representative, but what are her big efforts that she's given us? Yes, I understand that she's in the minority. But at some point you need to look to build bridges to get things done. I just think Joe Nation would be better at the job than she is.
And you said his career is over. Really? I think he's a great legislator. I hope he can make a comeback from this race. It was definitely bold (some would say presumptious) to try to run against Woolsey, but I don't think it should kill his career.
So, I guess I support Nation, for similar reasons as the SF Chronicle. See the flip for more...
