Last Thursday, Assemblymember Joan Buchanan held an open house for her new office in San Ramon and I have to say, I was pretty impressed. For one thing, my wife was introduced to these really amazing little brownie bites they sell at Costco. So thanks to which ever staffer was in charge of those. They're great. Personally, I love the schwag, and ended coming home with a great book all about the workings of the California State Legislature...not to mention my cool new Joan Buchanan pencil.
The biggest news out of the CA-10 race today is that, according to Lisa Vorderbrueggen, both Ellen Tauscher and friend of Calitics Rep. George Miller have endorsed Sen. Mark DeSaulnier for the future special election. That's a fairly big deal. There are essentially four power structures in the political scene CA-10, and DeSaulnier has swallowed up three - Tauscher, Miller, and Tom Torlakson. Considering that he's the chair of the Senate Labor Committee, the fourth power structure, the local unions, should be his as well.
Nevertheless, other prospective candidates are making news as well. Joan Buchanan's operatives clearly dropped a poll to Politico, showing her leading DeSaulnier narrowly:
The poll shows Buchanan leading DeSaulnier 21 to 18 percent, with Republican San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson at 14 percent and former GOP Assemblyman Guy Houston at 13 percent.
Neither Republican has yet expressed interest in the race.
Despite DeSaulnier's experience representing the area in the state legislature, both Democrats have comparable name recognition, according to the poll. Buchanan is recognized by 34 percent of voters, while 31 percent offer an opinion on DeSaulnier.
That was a survey of 400 voters with a high margin of error (4.9%), so I wouldn't take it too seriously. Buchanan would see institutional support dry up fast, but could leverage an outside group like EMILY's List.
The insufferable California Blue Dog is floating that former Mod Squad member Asm. Joe Canciamilla, who previously announced he was considering the race for Attorney General, might jump in, but DeSaulnier hasn't just beaten him in the past, he's beaten his whole family (DeSaulnier beat Canciamilla's wife in a Senate primary in '08).
Meanwhile, there's "one of SF's top political minds," if he does say so himself, Adriel Hampton, who is intent on dropping a press release a day to get reporters to chase coverage. Yesterday he urged passage of S. 582, the Interest Rate Reduction Act, which is actually a solid policy goal to cap interest rates on credit cards and loans, sponsored by Bernie Sanders. Today he went hard negative against DeSaulnier:
California 10th Congressional District candidate Adriel Hampton (D-Dublin) is not mincing words in his criticism of State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier considering leaving the Legislature just months after being elected. If Sen. DeSaulnier were to resign his seat, it would result in a minimum of 112 day period where an additional Republican vote would be need to pass a budget or raise revenue under California's unique 2/3 requirement.
"When DeSaulnier ran for his office, he signed up for a four year hitch, not a few-month fling," Hampton said. "His fickle recklessness would strengthen the Republican bargaining position and could cost Californians billions in cuts to health care, education, and public safety."
Restaurant-owner DeSaulnier was sworn in to the state senate just last December. If he runs for Congress, it would be the third different office he has run for in as many years. If legislative Republicans believe he has a chance of winning, it would incentivize them to stall a budget compromise until after the election, further extending the period of gridlock that would result in Sacramento by his candidacy.
There's a lot about this that is arrogant and ridiculous ("restaurant-owner DeSaulnier" is kind of a lame epithet to put on a guy who's been elected by these same constituents multiple times), but Hampton raises a point I raised as soon as Tauscher announced she was leaving. The merry go-round of special elections will put Democrats in the legislature down a body or two well into next year, and in the case of Buchanan threatens the loss of the seat. Now, this logic maybe appeals to a junkie like me, but my guess is it will have approximately no appeal to those inside the district, who will want to pick the best candidate for the job. In addition, this is a hard negative message that only argues for someone not in the legislature to be elected, and since the field has in no way assembled fully, I don't see that as a political winner. Not to mention the pose that DeSaulnier is a fickle part-time legislator made by someone who apparently is still working a full-time job and thinking he can run for Congress at the same time.
Oh, and Sully Sullenberger won't run, either. In case you were wondering. But there are more candidates who may enter, FYI.
Conveniently answering two questions in one press release, Assemblymember Tom Torlakson is announcing that he will continue to run for State Superintendent of Public Education, and will endorse State Senator Mark DeSaulnier for Tauscher's seat - which is the first clear indication that DeSaulnier will actually be running for that seat:
Assemblymember Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, said today he will continue his campaign for state schools chief and not run for a congressional seat currently held by Rep. Ellen Tauscher....
In making the announcement, Torlakson, who has held elective office in Contra Costa County for 30 years, said he would endorse Senator Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, to succeed Tauscher....
"The East Bay has been fortunate to have been served by Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher the past 12 years, and I wish her well as she prepares for this important new position with the Obama Administration," said Torlakson. "Mark DeSaulnier is the best person to continue her tradition of strong and effective leadership in Congress. He has the experience, intelligence, and character necessary to represent the residents of the district. I am pleased to endorse him and offer my full support for his upcoming campaign."
There's been some speculation that Asm. Joan Buchanan will run for the seat as well, which is possible, but it looks like the establishment is moving to unite behind DeSaulnier. Will that create an opening for a progressive candidate in the race? We shall see.
A California congresswoman with experience in military matters is the Obama administration's choice to be under secretary of state for arms control and international security.
Congressional and administration sources told The Associated Press on Tuesday that Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher is the administration's pick. The sources requested anonymity because the announcement is not official.
Could this joyous news be true? Could one of the bankers' best friends and leader of the DLC-like New Democrats in the House be taken off our hands by the Obama Administration? We will see - and we will hope.
This would open up yet another special election here in California to fill the seat. Who would be some of the most likely Democratic candidates to run for the seat?
Tom Torlakson. Former State Senator, now serving his third and final term in the Assembly (AD-11; his first two terms were from 1996-2000). He's currently planning a run for State Superintendent of Education in 2010, but might be interested in moving to the Congressional seat should it open up. He's probably got the highest political profile of the field owing to his 12+ years in the Legislature.
Mark DeSaulnier. Replaced Tom Torlakson in SD-7 when he was termed out last year. DeSaulnier and Torlakson are close and would probably not challenge each other for the seat, so if Torlakson decides to stay in California, DeSaulnier could make the move to DC. He has spoken out on the need to fix California's broken government and for action on global warming.
Joan Buchanan. Elected last November to the Assembly from AD-15. As a newly elected state official she may have a lower profile than Torlakson or DeSaulnier, but can't be ruled out as a possible candidate.
I'm sure there are other possible candidates out there who could fill this seat but those are the folks who have been generating the most discussion in the last 24 hours. We'll see what happens next. I for one will be glad to be rid of Ellen Tauscher and hopefully we can get someone more progressive to represent the 10th District.
Just wanted to use the term "President Obama" at the beginning of this. Has a ring to it.
• A few days old, but this is an important story. We talk a lot about the Capitol news bureaus being thinned out, but if you think that's bad, look at the almost non-existent pool of reporters covering county governments, in particular the country's largest, LA County. The budget is bigger than most states, and yet the Board of Supervisors has five members and only FOUR reporters. There's a direct line that can be drawn between media invisibility and the current crisis in California government.
• Gil Cedillo, running for Hilda Solis' Congressional seat once it's vacated, has a website. Calitics hopes to talk with all the CA-32 candidates in the coming weeks.
• Here's a story about the political tightrope being walked by newly-elected candidates Alyson Huber and Joan Buchanan. Legislators like this are always given the bad advice to act like the more conservative elements of their districts even though they won election promising something wholly separate from that. The bias is that the campaign consultants of their OPPONENTS set their governing strategy. That's bogus. Make your case and the voters will respond.
• If you're into the deathly important business of which gubernatorial candidate talked to which inaugural ball participant, this is the article for you. I have to say that I cannot work up even a little bit of enthusiasm for the 2010 race, especially considering that "leader of a failed state" is about as praiseworthy an honor as "perpetrator of the smallest genocide." So you may be able to find 18-month-in-advance horse-race stories elsewhere. Go get them. Because the next Governor of this state is not likely to be a movement candidate and as such is probably destined for failure, and so any investment of my time seems foolhardy.
I did some precinct walking for Joan Buchanan in the 15th Assembly District before the election, and had several conversations with the current Assembly member. She's not really the most progressive, but what she does carry is an ability to actually look at the problems and review the situation on a policy basis.
Take the recent budget vote. She voted no, along with the entirety of the Republican caucus. However, her explanation actually reflected the reality of the situation and had a solid policy basis:
Buchanan insisted that Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Los Angeles, "did not tell me how to vote. There was no saying, 'This is how you should vote to protect yourself."
She said her main reason for not voting on the revenues was that she opposed the sales-tax increase, preferring instead "to focus on the highest income bracket, though that doesn't mean in the future I won't vote" for a sales-tax increase.
Buchanan said she would likely vote for a revenue bill once Schwarzenegger comes to agreement with Democrats to help start up delayed infrastructure projects, though she's "reluctantly OK" with sidestepping the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority on tax increases. (CoCo Times 12/30/08)
The thing about her district is that it is pretty darn wealthy. It contains wealthy enclaves in Alamo, Walnut Creek, and others. Of course, there is the flip side there, especially with the foreclosure disaster. And many of her constituents have seen the value of their houses fall in that mess. But yet, she still sees the value of a progressive taxing structure over a blanket sales tax.
Look, I certainly won't agree with Asm. Buchanan on everything, but you have to respect somebody that seemingly has a grasp of the policy issues. It would be nice if there were a few of those folks on the other side of the aisle.
• I'll remind you about this on Monday, but if you're looking for some election day activities in LA, how about this phonebank at USC?
• The Palo Alto Police Chief is in hot water after 'she instructed officers to stop African-Americans and "find out who they are."' Classy, but she meant something else entirely, I'm sure.
• On the national front, our "post-partisan" governor called Barack Obama "scrawny." Apparently he loved the whole girly-man blowback so much, he thought he'd give it another shot. For reals:
"We're going to make him do some squats, and then we're going to give him some bicep curls to beef up those scrawny little arms, but if you only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas," he said. "Sen. McCain on the other hand is built like a rock," Schwarzenegger joked.
Schwarzenegger questioned Obama's readiness to be president, noting that McCain "served this country longer in a POW camp than his opponent has served in the United States Senate," he said, as the crowd roared with approval. "Ladies and gentlemen, I only play an action hero in my movies, but John McCain is a real action hero." (LA Times10/31)
Yes, apparently the same cliches he's been using in California haven't gone out of style in Ohio yet.
I have nothing but respect for the Obama campaign, its staffers, and the many, many volunteers that have given their blood, sweat, and tears to this campaign. It is because of their hard work that we are in a position to win the White House. We should never let off the gas pedal in following through on this election. While the nominee must attend to his personal affairs, we must pick up the slack.
That all being said, I can't say that I agree with this email that I just got (and video):
With only 15 days left and early voting already beginning, you can make a big difference by Driving for Change. Watch this video and sign up now to let us know you're coming to Colorado:
I understand this perspective from the Obama campaign. After all, their job isn't to fight for Democratic principles or anything high-minded like that. It's to win the presidential election for their guy, Barack Obama. And that's great. But this election is more than just one race. It's about more than just Barack Obama. A couple of weeks ago, Robert said something similar over at Big Orange. He spoke of an election that's slipping away from us, right here at home. A historic chance that we are squandering.
So these next two weeks, why don't you consider just Staying for Change. Now that doesn't mean staying for change and spending two hours into a phone bank and that's it.
Really stay for change. Stay for change by traveling to a new county for Change. You're in LA? WHy don't you help Debbie Cook, who is running in a district that starts in Southern LA County and extends into coastal Orange County. She's got a debate, well, very soon. It's her only shot at Dana in person, because he's been skittish to be seen in person with her. Or if you'd like to go further, how about helping Marty Block in AD-78 or Manuel Perez in AD-80.
Want to really Stay for Change in the Bay Area? Why don't you head up to the Sacramento area. They have several races that you can spend your weekend working on. You can walk and doors for Alyson Huber (AD-10) and Bill Durston (CA-03) and help out two great candidates at the same time. You can drive a few miles east and help out Charlie Brown (CA-04) as he seeks to defeat the carpet-bagging Tom McClintock. Or if you want to stay closer to home, Joan Buchanan (AD-15could use some help in the Contra Costa County area.
And then there are our propositions. We are in very tight races on some of the most important issues of our day: Propositions 4 & 8. Both are slightly ahead in the polls. While turnout is likely to be high this year, we need to ensure that people follow the ballot down the many, many pages and make those important votes against Prop 4 & 8. And on the Yes side? Well, in Prop 1A, we have a tremendous opportunity to steer development in our strength in the right direction.
So, while I don't frequently suggest ignoring emails from Barack Obama, I'm going to do it this time. Don't leave the state, but dedicate your time to ensuring that California makes the right decisions this November. And if you want to help Barack Obama, you can make calls right here from the Golden State without pumping all those carbon emissions into the atmosphere. It's easy and simple to start, just click here and you'll be making calls for Obama in no time. Your local county committee can also help you get set up to both make phone calls for Obama as well as Staying for Change.
• CA-11: Apparently trying to win some kind of award for the worst attack website in history, Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report (a terribly designed website in its own right) has put together One Term Is Enough, in all of its way-too-large masthead, ridiculously-spare with no action items or columns, design out of Quark X-Press glory. Man, that's ugly. And I think the focus on Jerry McNerney's earmarks, given the summer of scandal that Dean Andal has lived through which is entirely about a construction contract with a community college (if he was in Congress, that would be, basically, an earmark), is kind of silly. Meanwhile, McNerney is up with his first ad of the cycle, focusing on his work on behalf of troops and veterans.
• AD-80: As soyinkafan noted, Manuel Perez and Gary Jeandron had a debate where Jeandron stated his support for a tax increase in Imperial County. That's not likely to help him with the conservative base, but clearly Jeandron understands that he has to move to left if he has any chance to win this seat. The Palm Springs Desert Sun has a debate report here.
• SD-19: Tony Strickland's latest endorsement is Erin Brockovich, of all people. However, this could be less of a reach across the aisle as it appears.
Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt got Strickland's Democratic opponent Hannah-Beth Jackson on the phone, who said she was "a little surprised" by Brockovich backing her opponent.
While Brockovich says she is a Democrat in the ad, she writes on her blog that she's ready to leave the party and become an independent.
"I am ready to turn because both parties are acting foolish and judgmental and attacking," she writes.
She also has kind words for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
"I am proud to be a member of the same Strong Woman's Club that Sarah Palin is in." Brockovich writes.
• AD-15: As has been noted, Joan Buchanan released her first campaign ad of the cycle. Her opponent Abram Wilson responded with his own ad, also biographical in nature, and his campaign has questioned the Buchanan spot and her commitment to fiscal responsibility. I suppose signing a "no-tax" pledge is the height of responsibility, then.
• AD-30: We were all expecting it, and now Nicole Parra has officially endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore in the election to replace her. This is a family fight moved into the political sphere - the Parra-Florez feud is well-known.
Parra's support of Danny Gilmore angered Democratic Party leaders, but comes as no surprise because she has been praising Gilmore for months.
"I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials," Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival.
• LA Board of Supes: Turns out that not only is Bernard Parks turning to Republicans to help him get elected over progressive State Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas, but for ten years he was a member of the American Independent Party (!).
According to voter registration forms certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder:
Bernard Parks left the Democratic Party and registered as an American Independent on February 12, 1992 - just in time to miss the opportunity to vote for President Bill Clinton.
He registered again as an American Independent on August 9, 1996.
President George Bush was elected in November 2000 - but Parks still wouldn't become a Democrat for nearly a year and a half.
Parks was fired as Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department on April 9, 2002. Shortly thereafter, he began to prepare to run for Los Angeles City Council, and re-registered as a Democrat on May 30, 2002. Less than a year later, he was elected to the City Council.
That is very strange, especially for an African-American to sign up with a party which is the legacy of George Wallace.
I was at a Joan Buchanan fundraiser the other day that featured the Speaker (who was great, as usual) and other local elected Dems. One thing that a couple of them mentioned was the fact that we now have a registration edge over the GOP in AD-15.
Since I'm a huge nerd, I decided to take a look at the numbers and ended up putting together a little chart (all numbers from the SoS website). One thing that struck me is that Democratic registration (as a percentage) has been increasing very slowly; the small advantage this cycle is more due to Republican registration shrinking. I also noticed that the margin of victory seems to have stayed fairly constant over the last three cycles - even during the presidential race, where Kerry won the district by a narrow margin.
Obviously the fact that Houston was an incumbent was a factor, as well as the fact that (as far as I know), the previous three candidates didn't have the same experience in elected office or fundraising potential as Joan Buchanan. Just curious as to what people think and whether I'm reading too much into this.
I was over in the East Bay yesterday running some errands, so I figured I would stop in the Walnut Creek opening of the Contra Costa County United Democratic Campaign (CCC-UDC) HQ. They had a band, plenty of good snacks and drinks, and a few great candidates mingling with a pretty good number of grassroots Democrats who turned out to welcome the new office.
Check out AD-15 candidate Joan Buchanan talk about her race and the area, and over the flip you'll see current Assemblyman and future Senator Mark Desaulnier.
Due to Memorial Day, the Calitics Show has been moved to today at 3:30. I'll be talking to 2 Assembly Candidates, Joan Buchanan of the 15th District and Richard Holober in the 19th.
This is our first attempt at endorsements on a broad scale in the legislature. It is not comprehensive, we simply don't have the resources to get to every seat. But, we tried to get to most of the competitive seats. We'll provide a bit of commentary on some of these over the flip. State Senate races tomorrow, and Congressional races on Wednesday. But, today, Assembly races:
AD-08: Mariko Yamada
AD-10: Alyson Huber
AD-15: Joan Buchanan
AD-27: Emily Reilly
AD-37: Ferial Masry
AD-40: Laurette Healey
AD-78: Any Democratic candidate other than Auday Arabo.
AD-80: Manuel Perez
Charlie Brown reported $225,000 in the first quarter of 2008, with over a million dollars raised throughout the campaign. He's had 12,000 donors thus far.
Russ Warner took in $100,000 in the first quarter and has $220,000 cash on hand.
But I was more interested in this story, which shows the CNA making an electoral play in two swing districts to help the Democrats reach a 2/3 majority.
This year the nurses union also is backing two Democrats vying for open seats which are being vacated by Republicans:
Up north, longtime San Ramon Valley School Board trustee Joan Buchanan seeks the East Bay's open 15th Assembly District being vacated by termed-out Assemblyman Guy Houston. In January she reported a $166,000 war chest and most likely will face off against San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson.
Down south, former Santa Barbara Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson wants to fill Ventura County's open 19th District state Senate seat being surrendered by termed-out Tom McClintock, who's heading north to run for an open congressional seat near Sacramento. Ex-Assemblyman Tony Strickland is the GOP's anointed successor.
"We only need two more Democrats in the senate and six more in the assembly to have a two-thirds Democratic majority," said CNA legislative director Donna Gerber, who spent six years as a Contra Costa County supervisor.
"When there are budget cuts those budget cuts pretty much happen in health care and education. So for sure we are supporting Hannah-Beth Jackson and Joan Buchanan. Those are two that we're putting a lot of our energy into."
If labor jumps in explicitly in these legislative races to aid in the drive for 2/3 then we'll have a distinct financial advantage. Remember that the CA Republican Party is essentially broke. This is the best news I've heard all week and I know the rest of labor will follow suit.
As reported by Randy Bayne, Steve Filson is dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination in AD-15. From Filson's website:
Dear Friends and Supporters:
It is with great regret, that we are suspending our campaign for the California State Assembly. There are a constellation of reasons both personal and political that I have reached a point to make a tough choice.
I want to thank everyone who has been with us. You understood the importance of winning this seat and converting it to a Democratic one. I still think that is possible and very important but having two strong opponents in a Primary brings more harm than good. Therefore it is best if we help clear the field so that our Democratic contender is ready for the general election which will be very tough.
For those many folks who donated their time, I can't thank you enough.
For the time being I will be analyzing my next steps. For the many great new friends I have met during this campaign, I'm sure we will cross paths again. Again, I thank everyone for their support.
Seems like it's about time for Ellen Tauscher to check herself into Interfering Politician Rehab. You might have thought that after last year's Steve Filson debacle in the CA-11 primary, she'd have gotten the message that Democratic voters are perfectly capable of choosing their own candidates. But nooooo, the woman is out of control.
With Guy Houston being termed out of his AD-15 seat, there are presently five Democrats vying to replace him:
retired airline pilot Steve Filson
electrician Steve Thomas
retired entrepreneur Fred Klaske
small businessman Davies Ononiwu and
high school principal Chris Van Schaack
So you might look at this group and ask yourself, "Exactly what's missing from the mix; what more do we need?" And the answer would be — why, it's the Ellen Tauscher Seal of Approval™. Apparently, Filson has fallen out of favor; I'm guessing that Tauscher feels like he let her down in CA-11, rather than the more obvious alternative: that, just maybe, Democratic voters resent Tauscher's interference in their elections.
So meet the new, sixth candidate in AD-15, Joan Buchanan. A 17-year member of the school board in San Ramon and generous contributor to Tauscher's past campaigns, Buchanan appears poised to catapult to front-runner status based on her powerful political connections to Friends of Ellen and her prodigious fundraising potential. Sound eerily familiar?
What is Tauscher thinking? Isn't there anybody who can stop her before she hurts someone? K-Fed? Anyone?
Seems like it's about time for Ellen Tauscher to check herself into Interfering Politician Rehab. You might have thought that after last year's Steve Filson debacle in the CA-11 primary, she'd have gotten the message that Democratic voters are perfectly capable of choosing their own candidates. But nooooo, the woman is out of control.