(Thanks for the update. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Lots happening down in CA-24. Brian Dennert has several scoops. First, Elton Gallegly's anemic fundraising:
What's on his agenda? He doesn't appear on television much, he doesn't hold town hall forums, and he isn't going to be passing much legislation being in the minority party. In the last quarter he raised: $42,057.75
Should Democrats and Republicans interested in running get encouragement from those numbers that he might be retiring? He does have more than $800,000 in his warchest which should prove effective at protecting him if he does run again. But is a slow fundraising period a sign that he is retiring?
(Low-turnout primaries are really tricky things. And it's so hard to run a traditional grassroots campaign in California. This is a pretty amazing story, and ties in to what I was talking about below. - promoted by David Dayen)
Well, one thing's for sure: Democrats are tired of big business and the insurance industry. So much so, in fact, that Democrats in CA-24 elected to vote in landslide numbers for Marta Jorgensen, a candidate who did little traditional campaigning to speak of--including, apparently, not even purchasing the state voter file--simply on the basis of the ballot designation "educator".
The Democratic primary race in CA-24 to challenge perennial do-nothing Republican Elton Gallegly was a 3-way contest between progressive favorite Mary Pallant, the previous Democratic contestant Jill Martinez, and political neophyte Marta Jorgensen.
The outcome of this race is difficult for me to write about, as I was very enthusiastic about Mary's campaign: her progressive stances on issues from Iraq to healthcare to accountability for the Bush Administration are all very attractive, and of the three candidates, she is by far the most charismatic and hard-nosed. She also knows exactly what it takes to run a good campaign, and it was something of an open secret in the local political scene that Elton Gallegly was very nervous about having to face her in November. I was so impressed with Mary (and still am) that I signed on to become to her volunteer Netroots Outreach Coordinator. But in a low-turnout election, the strangest things can happen.
Those of you who follow House races closely know that CA-24 is one of the under-the-radar races to watch this year. Though it's not getting a lot of attention in the national media, this district is one that could end up surprising a lot of people who aren't watching the trends on the ground.
The race features Mary Pallant, the progressive Democrat, going up against Elton Gallegly, a do-nothing rubberstamp Republican, in an already purple district that is turning increasingly blue and is filled with abnormally large numbers of independent voters. Pallant is also being challenged in the primary by Jill Martinez; however, given that Martinez is still over $93,000 in debt from her previous campaign, it is unclear how vigorous a challenge she will be able to mount to either Pallant or Gallegly.
Full disclosure: I serve as the volunteer Netroots Coordinator for the Mary Pallant campaign
There are no Senate seats up in California in 2008, and no statewide offices up for election, so the biggest seats outside of the Presidency will be in the House of Representatives. While we're 18 months out, I thought I'd give a snapshot of what races are most inviting for a Democratic pickup.
I'm going to concern myself solely with pickup opportunities, because the only realistic possibility of a GOP pickup is in CA-11, and I'm confident that Jerry McNerney and his grassroots army can handle whatever's thrown at him, plus he'll have the power of incumbency and the focus of the CDP. There may be some retirements that would make things interesting (Lantos, Stark, Woolsey), but those are very blue areas. So let's look at the best opportunities to add to the Democratic majority:
This weekend I attended a pre-convention meeting for Region 10 of the California Democratic Party, which stretches from Santa Monica all the way up to the Monterey/San Luis Obispo County line. This is a big coastal region, parts of which have not been sufficiently Democratic over the years. But there are some great people in the trenches doing the necessary work to change that. Here are some disconnected thoughts:
In the first couple centuries of European warfare following the introduction of gunpowder, giant medieval walls met cannons and explosives. Eventually, the cannons and sappers would blow a gap in the wall. Then a group of volunteers, called in the British Army "The Forlorn Hope", would charge the gap. Those men almost always died, but their sacrifice was necessary to draw the fire of the defenders and force them to expend their ammunition, so the second wave of attackers could get through the breach. Survivors, if any, were promoted to officer.
The 50-state, 435-district strategy requires that many Democratic candidates serve as a forlorn hope. These Democratic candidates ran in heavily Republican districts where they had little to no chance to win. But they forced the Republicans to spend money and resources simply to retain their seats, were there to take advantage of mistakes or scandal, and helped to build and energize infrastructure in those districts.
While we're all celebrating the victory of last Tuesday, let us thank the Democrats' forlorn hope -- they probably won this for us. In California, at least in the races I've been following, that means that I want to thank these candidates and all of their campaign staff and volunteers:
Charlie Brown, running against John 15% Doolittle in CA-04.
David Roth, running against Mary Bono in CA-45
Francine Busby, running again in CA-50 against Brian Bilbray
Bill Durston, running against Dan Lungren in CA-03
Jill Martinez, running against Elton Gallegly in CA-24
Roberto Rodriguez, running against Buck McKeon in CA-25
Thanks to all of you. You made this victory possible.
I recently put up a technologically revamped site for Jill Martinez for Congress (CA-24). It used to be a bunch of static pages. It is now a blog-format site with comments, diaries an event calendar and the usual goodies. Now that it's built, who will come?
below: The Saga of a Web Site, Technical Wankery, and 83 days to know if it works
