Congressman Jerry McNerney (CA-11) said he "appreciates" the state and federal government announcement Tuesday to release Delta science studies, but emphasized that it is only "a very small step forward."
The U.S. Department of the Interior, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Department of Water Resources announced that "key" documents regarding the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP) Memorandum of Agreement will be made public via the internet to all parties at the same time.
Delta residents, fishermen, environmentalists, Indian Tribes, family farmers and environmental justice advocates have blasted the BDCP for being a plan to build a peripheral canal or tunnel, designed to export more water to corporate agribusiness and southern California, under the guise of a "Habitat Conservation Plan."
"Having access to documents does not guarantee that the concerns of the Delta communities will be considered, and I am resolved to fight against any plan that includes a peripheral canal," said McNerney.
"The entire process has been conducted in secrecy and without the Delta region represented," he stated. "We need a more steadfast guarantee that our input will be included in the Bay Delta Plan. Any other outcome could cost the Delta communities millions of dollars and countless jobs."
"I continue to stand with the farmers, families and businesses that depend on a healthy Delta for their livelihoods and way of life. A healthy Delta is vital to the health and well-being of our region. Much more must be done to level the playing field and ensure that the needs of the Delta communities are respected," he concluded.
In a letter to Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on October 24, McNerney and U.S. Reps. George Miller (CA-7), Mike Thompson (CA-1), Doris Matsui (CA-5) ) and John Garamendi (CA-10) asked that the agreement between the Department and water agencies be rescinded. They also said the process must be opened up to include key stakeholders left out of the discussions, including Bay Area, Delta and coastal communities, farmers, businesses, and fishermen. (http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2011/10/24/18694808.php)
Eleven Members of Congress also slammed the BDCP MOA in a letter to the US Bureau of Reclamation on November 16 (http://blogs.alternet.org/danbacher/2011/11/17/salmon-advocates-praise-members-of-congress-for-delta-water-stand.) The Representatives included George Miller, Jackie Speier, Barbara Lee, Pete Stark, Lynne Woolsey, Pete Stark, Kurt Schrader, Earl Blumenauer, Sam Farr, Michael Thompson and Anna Eshoo.
"In short, we believe that the MOA must withdrawn, and the state and federal agencies must dramatically recalibrate the BDCP process," the Representatives wrote.
Delta advocates believe the peripheral canal, if built, would lead to the extinction of Central Valley steelhead, Sacramento River chinook salmon, Delta smelt, longfin smelt, green sturgeon, Sacramento splittail and other imperiled fish species.
The Brown and Obama administrations authorized the export of a record 6.5 million acre-feet of water from the Delta in water year 2011. The previous record, set during the Schwarzenegger and Bush administrations, was 6.3 million acre-feet in 2005.
The record exports have resulted in unprecedented numbers of fish killed at the state and federal pumps. The state and federal governments have to date "salvaged" over 11 million fish, including 8 million Sacramento splitttail, but scientific studies reveal that actual loss in the pumping facilities is actually 5 to 10 times the amount of fish "salvaged." (http://blogs.alternet.org/danbacher/2011/09/09/over-11-million-fish-salvaged-in-delta-death-pumps-since-january-1).
Washington, D.C. - On October 4, Congressman Jerry McNerney (CA-11) continued the charge against a new peripheral canal that would divert water out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to corporate agribusiness in the San Joaquin Valley and southern California water agencies.
Representatives Mike Thompson, George Miller, Doris Matsui, John Garamendi, and McNerney met with Jerry Meral, the Deputy Secretary of the California Natural Resource Agency to express their grave concerns over any Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP) that would adversely affect the Delta Region, according to a news release from McNerney's office. Meral, a strong supporter of the peripheral canal for over three decades, is the senior state official who oversees the BDCP.
"I will continue to be a strong advocate for the people of the entire Delta region to ensure that the water resources and their quality remain in place," said Congressman McNerney. "Steps must be taken now to ensure that the BDCP serves the best interests of our region, and I insisted that the voice of the Delta be heard."
The meeting took place at a time when the Brown and Obama administrations are fast-tracking the construction of the peripheral canal to export more Delta water. A coalition of Delta residents, family farmers, fishermen, Indian Tribes, environmental justice communities and elected officials is opposing the canal's construction because it would likely result in the extinction of Central Valley steelhead, Sacramento River chinook salmon, Delta smelt, longfin smelt, Sacramento splittail, green sturgeon and other imperiled species.
Since 2007, Rep. McNerney has spearheaded the fight against a new conveyance system-- such as a peripheral canal or tunnel-- that would take large amounts of water from the Delta, according to the release. Last month, he sent a letter to the Department of the Interior insisting that the final BDCP benefit the Delta region. The letter strongly opposed any aggressive measures that would adversely affect the Delta.
"Agriculture is the life blood of the Delta region, and I will fight to protect the livelihood of our farmers, families and small businesses. I thank my colleagues in the region for once again joining me in fighting for the well-being of the people in the San Joaquin Delta region," said Rep. McNerney. "As I made clear to the Bay Delta Conservation Plan officials, we will not accept a new canal that does not have the buy in of the Delta communities."
Representatives Miller and Thompson echoed McNerney's dedication to fighting for the residents of the Delta region.
"Needlessly rushing the scientific review of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan is simply irresponsible, and that is what I told the Bay Delta Conservation Plan officials today," said Rep. Mike Thompson (CA-01). "We know all-too-well the consequences of bad water policy combined with impractical deadlines."
"In Humboldt and Del Norte Counties, expedited review of the Klamath River project resulted in the death of 68,000 Chinook Salmon in September 2002. Are we really considering walking down the same road again? We need sound, science-based solutions that don't harm our wildlife or environment," explained Thompson.
"This was a much-needed meeting, but it doesn't yet solve the problem," said Rep. George Miller (CA-07), the author of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act (CVPIA). "We are very concerned that Bay-Delta interests are not being treated as equal partners - despite clear direction from the state legislature that a restored Bay-Delta and a reliable water supply must be co-equal goals."
"The state of California, the federal agencies, and the exporters who are seeking the Bay-Delta's water have stumbled badly over the way that this Bay-Delta Conservation Plan is being put together -- behind closed doors, and without full and fair participation," Miller concluded.
The meeting took place several days after two disturbing records were set on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta as the water year ended.
First, a record 9 million Sacramento splittail were "salvaged" at the state and federal Delta pumps near Tracy in 2011. The previous record salvage number for the splittail, a native minnow found only in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system, was 5.5 million in 2006 (http://blogs.alternet.org/danbacher/2011/09/09/over-11-million-fish-salvaged-in-delta-death-pumps-since-january-1).
Second, the water projects pumped a record 6.5 million acre-feet of water from the Delta in 2011, according to government data compiled by Spreck Rosecrans at Environmental Defense. The previous record was 6.3 million acre-feet in 2005.
David Harmer has run for Congress three times. Twice here in California, and a third time over a decade ago in Utah. He comes from a political heritage, as his father was appointed by Reagan to serve out a year as Lt. Governor. But, despite the fact that he lost by 2,658 votes, that doesn't mean that he's going to give in quite yet. No sir-ree!
As we told you the other day, with all the votes counted -- but not Secretary of State certified -- Republican David Harmer is down 2,658 votes in his East Bay congressional race against incumbent Dem Jerry McNerney. But Dave told me Thurdsay he ain't quitting...just yet.
When you lose a race by a 1 percent sliver, he said, you want to make sure you exhaust all your possibilities.
His race was so close, he was asked to participate in freshman orientation for new House members. He went. "I consider a lot of them (other freshman) friends now."
Now, he needs a miracle to be sworn in with them.
"It just seems prudent to review the precinct-level data to make sure there are no anomalies there," Harmer told me. He doesn't expect the anomaly-hunting to last more than a couple of days. His staff is sifting through the data, which it couldn't obtain until the vote count was certified by counties until earlier this week.(SF Gate)
You can certainly understand his reluctance, but coming from a political background, this is less than classy. The nearly 2700 votes are not going to fall from the sky for Harmer. After all, Steve Cooley conceded with a lower (percentage wise) margin. It is hard to imagine Harmer getting another crack at this apple, after losing three times. However, he certainly is persistent, and he might want another shot come the new districts in 2012. Just don't expect his track record to change.
Incumbent Democratic Congress members Jerry McNerney and Jim Costa each had some very long election nights. But while it hasn't been easy, the good money is now on both of them sticking around another two years.
McNerney:
"With the vast majority of votes tallied, the results are clear. Congressman McNerney now has an insurmountable lead," McNerney campaign manager Doug Greven said in a news release. (IBA)
Costa:
Fresno Democrat Jim Costa declared victory Wednesday in a grueling battle to keep the 20th Congressional District seat after he took a 1,200-vote lead over Republican Andy Vidak, a political neophyte from Hanford.
"This has been a hard-fought campaign, obviously, but now it appears as if it is over," Costa said at a news conference.
Costa made his announcement after Fresno County elections officials released an updated vote count that put him ahead for the first time.()
Of course, there are a few votes left to count in both of these districts, but the math is just rough on both Harmer and Vidak. The votes left are likely to favor the Democrats, making those numbers up seems extremely unlikely.
(Good post on Harmer's BS claims - he's trying to suppress the vote to steal an election he lost. - promoted by Robert Cruickshank)
In what I believe is the closest Congressional race in the country, Jerry McNerney held a 121 vote lead as of Wednesday morning. Absentees counted in Alameda and Santa Clara counties have increased his margin to 568 as of this morning, but those counties were his strongest ones. Now Harmer wants to challenge the signatures (and stop the counting of) of mail in ballots when the voter is not there to respond.
When we first started Democracy for America, one of our goals was to help ordinary people get involved in grassroots politics. Thousands of you joined our community and brought about real change by making phone calls, sending emails, and knocking on doors.
I need your help for someone who, just like you, stood up for change.
In 2006, Jerry McNerney, a wind energy engineer, defeated one of the country's most corrupt members of Congress, Richard Pombo. Jerry was one of the first DFA Grassroots All-Stars and thousands of volunteers, including so many of you, came together for his campaign and achieved what many said was impossible - sending a seven-term committee Chairman packing.
Hi there, Nicholas Hatten here. Ye of McNerney '06 and '08 campaigns and Stockton's Drinking Liberally. First time poster but long time lurker. What's got me so excited that I've decided to break my lurking streak? Well, the awesomeness that is San Joaquin County's LGBT community.
A year ago this month I moved back to the lovely city of Stockton after a decade long love affair with the Bay Area and re-discovering the Central Valley during my time with Team McNerney. Now I was already aware of how progressive leaders like Councilmember Susan Eggman (LGBT icon), Jerry & Carol Bailey (single payer icons), Martha Gamez (uber-grassroots icon) and others had helped change the landscape of politics in the Central Valley. What I wasn't aware of was how much the LGBT had matured and evolved into a political force during my time away.
In a letter to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on October 23, Congressman Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton) criticized plans to build a peripheral canal and the exclusion of input from Delta residents in the current Delta/water bill package now being considered by the California legislature.
The letter reiterates the Congressman's plan to "closely monitor' initiatives that require federal participation and his concern about any proposals that lay groundwork for a peripheral canal.
"I am deeply concerned by initiatives that may be intended to lay the groundwork for a canal that diverts additional fresh water from the San Joaquin Delta," said Jerry McNerney. "Such a canal would further erode water quality for several million people. A canal and related proposals are expected to threaten jobs by turning family farms into uninhabitable salty marshlands and could raise water rates by decreasing the supply of clean water for families and businesses in the San Joaquin Delta area."
He emphasized, "Public health and economic opportunity in Contra Costa County, San Joaquin County, and other San Joaquin Delta communities should not be sacrificed in pursuit of expensive and counterproductive water projects. I will oppose federal support for water proposals that threaten the millions of people that call the San Joaquin Delta home."
The letter urges the Governor to take into account input from the families, farmers and businesses that live in the communities surrounding the San Joaquin Delta as these changes as considered. A broad coalition of Delta counties and cities, farmers, fishermen, Indian Tribes, conservationists and environmental justice have repeatedly criticized the Governor and Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg for crafting the legislative water package in back door negotiations without in put from Delta communities.
"Drought conditions are a serious concern in California, and federal, state, and local partners should work together to provide relief," said McNerney. "Efforts to improve water supplies in drought-affected areas, however, must also protect clean water availability for the four million people living in the counties that are most directly dependent on the San Joaquin Delta. I am honored to represent hardworking families in Contra Costa County and San Joaquin County - two of the five "Delta Counties" - and we are committed to working with you to advance effective water solutions. However, the voices of families, farmers, and businesses in San Joaquin Delta communities must be heard as federal and state collaborative processes advance."
Delta representatives were barred from preview of the water package last week by Senate President Pro tem Darrell Steinberg and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
"With the aid of his sidekick, Senate President pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, Governor Schwarzenegger's Chief of Staff Susan Kennedy has brought in one-by-one individual water agencies and other organizations, all from outside of the Delta, to negotiate what each individual groups wants to see in the water package," said Barbara Barrigan-Parrilla, campaign director of Restore the Delta. "And by bringing in corporate environmental organizations into the negotiations process, such the Nature Conservancy, NRDC, and the Environmental Defense Fund, which all stand to benefit financially either from the bond package itself or from continued funding from pro-peripheral canal foundations or corporations like Bechtel, the Governor and Senate President have given themselves green cover for policies that will turn the Delta into a stagnant saltwater marsh."
The current water policy and bond package before the Legislature doesn't specifically authorize the construction of a peripheral canal, but provides a road map for its construction. The legislation authorizes the creation of a Delta Stewardship Council composed of four of the Governor's appointees, two legislative appointees, and one representative from the Delta. The Governor supports the construction of a canal and more dams, so his appointees would be expected to do so also.
For example, Steinberg's SB1 (7th Extraordinary Session) - Public Resources Bill does not expressly authorize a Peripheral Canal or new surface storage. However, it does have specific provisions that facilitate construction of new conveyance and storage, including 85304: "The Delta Plan shall promote options for new and improved infrastructure relating to the water conveyance in the Delta, storage systems, and for the operation of both to achieve the coequal goals."
This letter to the Governor comes on the heels of Congressman McNerney calling on Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar to "actively solicit input" from the residents who live in the San Joaquin Delta area and ensure their seat at the table as any federal proposals on the Delta are considered.
The text of the letter to Governor Schwarzenegger is below:
October 23, 2009
The Honorable Arnold Schwarzenegger
Governor
State Capitol Building
Sacramento, CA 95814
Dear Governor Schwarzenegger:
As California legislators and agencies evaluate significant changes to water policy in our state, I am writing to bring your attention to matters of federal concern. Initiatives to improve water quality and availability in California are dependent upon coordination by federal, state, and local agencies. I will closely monitor any actions, particularly those that require federal participation, and will continue to insist that water proposals provide benefit to families, farmers, and businesses in the counties encompassing the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
Drought conditions are a serious concern in California, and federal, state, and local partners should work together to provide relief. Efforts to improve water supplies in drought-affected areas, however, must also protect clean water availability for the four million people living in the counties that are most directly dependent on the San Joaquin Delta. I am honored to represent hardworking families in Contra Costa County and San Joaquin County - two of the five "Delta Counties" - and we are committed to working with you to advance effective water solutions. However, the voices of families, farmers, and businesses in San Joaquin Delta communities must be heard as federal and state collaborative processes advance.
I am deeply concerned by initiatives that may be intended to lay the groundwork for a canal that diverts additional fresh water from the San Joaquin Delta. Such a canal would further erode water quality for several million people. A canal and related proposals are expected to threaten jobs by turning family farms into uninhabitable salty marshlands and could raise water rates by decreasing the supply of clean water for families and businesses in the San Joaquin Delta area. Public health and economic opportunity in Contra Costa County, San Joaquin County, and other San Joaquin Delta communities should not be sacrificed in pursuit of expensive and counterproductive water projects. I will oppose federal support for water proposals that threaten the millions of people that call the San Joaquin Delta home.
As you know, a Memorandum of Understanding for San Joaquin Delta projects was recently signed by the Department of the Interior and several other federal agencies. The memorandum pledges to develop a coordinated work plan for the San Joaquin Delta in consultation with state and local partners. I have requested that the Department of the Interior take into account feedback from residents of the San Joaquin Delta Counties, and I urge you to do the same. Together, I believe we can advance helpful solutions that benefit every region of California.
Thank you for your attention to this letter, and I look forward to your reply.
I wonder what is going on in CA-11 (my own district). After surprising the world and beating Richard Pombo in 2006, and then consolidating his position in the district in 2008, Jerry McNerney now finds himself with no less than 7 opponents (according to Vorderbrueggen) for the 2010 election.
Does a declining party really think that they can win this one back, or is it just the fact that they are still in shock over Pombo's loss… and our gain?
I would guess that McNerney would love to see a Republican cat fight chewing up contributions while he meets quarterly fund-raising goals with regularity.
Jerry,
I have supported you for a long time, writing newspaper columns calling for voting Pombo out and you in both in 2004 and 2006. Now, I need to tell you what has to happen for you to continue getting my support.
To begin with, you know and I know that climate change changes everything. There is nothing more important than dealing with this.
If you want to cut health care costs, you must deal with climate change before tropical diseases like malaria invade the US and valley fever become even more wide spread. The latter only killed 200 last year.
If you want to fix the economy, you must deal with climate change as the costs of trying to mitigate its effects later will devastate our country's economy. The entire Obama economic plan depends on returning to an era of growth the help pay off the debts that we are incurring now. The effects of climate change may be that such growth never occurs just at the time that we need to be building Netherlands style dikes to protect half of your district from flooding.
Neither Waxman - Markey nor Kerry - Boxer will really achieve their alleged goals. Those who cheated on mortgage back equities will cheat on trading pollution credits. Neither bill really takes on coal. They still talk of the mythological clean coal. Duke Energy has pulled out of the Clean Coal Coalition and Jim Rogers, it's CEO, says this about carbon capture and sequestration:
> He argued that it's unlikely that the United States will be able to develop and bring to scale carbon-capture-and-storage - often called "clean coal" technology. "I think there's no way we can scale in this country," he said. "It's more likely that China will develop and bring CCS to scale. I'd like to be China for a day so we can get CCS done. They're more likely to get it scaled and deployed than we are. We're going to be buying their technology." (Source: Washington Independent)
I expect to hear you telling the truth about where we are headed and to see you working for much stronger legislation than we currently see. The alternative is to work for someone else who will promise to get this job done, no matter what party they are from.
SB14, which would require utilities to receive 33% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020, passed the state Senate today. This would be a more stringent standard than the federal bill introduced today by Henry Waxman, which called for 25% from renewables by 2025. So this is a very aggressive standard that was championed by Darrell Steinberg.
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) said the bill, which now goes to the Assembly, would help pave the way to a more environmental friendly future.
"The green economy is the economy of the future," Steinberg said. "The environment and the economy go together."
Mod Squadder and corporate-friendly Sen. Rod Wright, along with Lou Correa, voted no. For Wright, who said he is "concerned that this bill is moving too fast," the vote is particularly inexcusable, as his district is witness to the ravages of greenhouse gas-emitted pollution. The final vote was 21 aye, 16 no. Tony Strickland, who pretended to be an environmentalist during his campaign, predictably took a walk on the vote. What a coward.
Capitol Weekly has more. This is a big win for Sen. Steinberg, and while the bill is certain to be amended (the "cap and trade" style appearance of "renewable energy credits" that utilities can pass to one another to get inside the 33% standard seems ripe for gaming the system), a strong claim on a very progressive priority gives us hope that progressives won't be stiffed for this entire session.
In a related development, Rep. Jerry McNerney introduced three very good energy bills at the federal level, including the Smart Grid Advancement Act, which would develop a smart electrical grid that could help reduce energy use during peak times, the Vehicles for the Future Act, which would build out the electrical infrastructure for plug-in hybrids and EVs, and the GREEN Act, which would provide $100 million in grants for developing career and technical training in green jobs. The three bills are explained here.
I've been talking a lot about Stay for Change. Well, I've got a chance now to put my time, gas, and energy where my mouth is. The CDP's Rural Caucus and Take Back Red California are putting together a great event in Stockton (1825 Pacific) on Sunday morning at 10AM.
Assembly Majority Whip Fiona Ma will be there to rally the 'roots, joining several other local elected officials. Oh, and me! Come and say hi!
Once we hear some good speechifying, we'll break off to to do some work for Calitics favorite Alyson Huber as well as Lois Wolk (for whom I do some work) and Jerry McNerney. Details:
What: Blue Wave Action event
Who: CDP Rural Caucus, Take Back Red California, Asm. Fiona Ma, Brian Leubitz (That's me) and tons of fun people...plus you!
When: Sunday, October 26, 10AM
Where: Stockton DCCC, 1825 Pacific Why: Because California needs you to build a better, more responsible budget.
More information: Cool JPG with info
• A KPIX poll shows Jerry McNerney cruising in CA-11, up 52-41 over Dean Andal. What a golden boy. The D-Trip needs to bug out of this race and put the resources where they're needed, like CA-03, CA-46, CA-50 and CA-26.
• Alyson Huber received the endorsement of the Sacramento Bee in her AD-10 race. In other newspaper endorsements, the LA Times went with some guy named Barack Obama for President. This is their first endorsement in a general election in 30 years.
• The OC toll road agency, which has been pushing the San Onofre State Beach road for years because it would provide such an economic boost, now wants a billion dollar federal bailout because commuters are using their roads less. Roads are costly and no longer profitable. Transit, yes; more roads, no.
• Here's an interesting read from Amanda Marcotte on Prop. 4 and the new rhetoric taken up by the anti-choice forces.
• A reminder: Jim Dean will be in Southern California Sunday appearing with the campaigns of Debbie Cook (CA-46) and Bill Hedrick (CA-44).
8:30 AM: Breakfast fundraiser for Debbie Cook for Congress, $25. At the International Association of Machinists Union Hall, 5402 Bolsa Avenue, Huntington Beach, California 92649.
10 AM: Precinct walking and rally also at the International Association of Machinists Union Hall. For more info, call the Cook campaign at 714-842-6358.
6 PM: Fundraiser for Bill Hedrick with Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, $75. At the Historic El Adobe de Capistrano Restaurant, 31891 Camino Capistrano, San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675. Please RSVP to Karen Hinks at 714-848-9395 or khinks-at-verizon-dot-net.
UPDATE by Brian: one more for you. Lane Hudson has an open letter to DiFi on HuffPo challenging her to campaign against Prop 8 in the context of the upcoming Harvey Milk movie. Check it out.
Sunday's edition of the Stockton Record ran a story about the Jerry McNerney campaign's "tracker" of his opponent, Dean Andal. Now, as most of us know, "tracking" is the practice of bringing a videocamera to all of your opponent's public events in the hopes of getting ammunition--either in terms of a "macaca moment" or something as simple as contradictions in the message of a campaign.
Well, as the article points out, tracking is an inevitable and uncontroversial aspect of political campaigning:
I don't see the need for secrecy. But I did not observe any foul play, either. Neither did Brian Klunk, a political science professor at University of the Pacific.
"Campaigns have done 'oppositional research' just about forever," Klunk said. "There's a long lore of this."
Not a lot of controversy here...but Dean Andal doesn't see it that way. Maybe that's because Dean Andal is afraid of accountability and exposure. Regardless, here's what he had to say about tracking--from the very same article in the Stockton Record:
McNerney was tracked in 2007 as he campaigned, presumably by minions of his rival, Rep. Richard Pombo, possibly by other Republicans.
"I've actually told the few people we've hired, anybody who does that would be immediately terminated," Andal said. "Because I don't believe in it."
Now it's time to find out just how much Dean Andal means it.
Here's a video of Congressman McNerney entering the debate in Tracy on Oct. 11th for the CA-11 Congressional Debate.
At about 10 seconds in, you'll notice someone standing on the raised planter area with a videocamera. Seems innocuous enough. But who is that guy?
General: I suspended the monthly ratings because it was ridiculously time-consuming and better to get the information out more timely, but in case you're wondering, here is my impression of the top targets in California for the Congressional races as we stand with 22 days out. My considered opinion is that no incumbent Democrat is in trouble, including Jerry McNerney. As for the Republican-held seats:
1) CA-04: Lean Dem. Charlie Brown has been ahead in multiple polls and actually has a ground game, unlike Tom McClintock.
2) CA-03: Tilt Repub. Bill Durston's poll showing the race as a dead heat raised a lot of eyebrows. Unfortunately people discovered this race too late, but by Election Day I'll bet that the registration numbers are virtually tied and there will not be an immediate call. The smart money for progressives wanting to impact a race should go to Dr. Durston against Dan Lungren.
3) CA-46: Tilt Repub. Debbie Cook is replicating the Loretta Sanchez strategy of ground mobilization that she used to defeat B-1 Bob Dornan. We'll see if she can pull it off against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher.
4) CA-26: Tilt Repub. Russ Warner has been doing a decent enough job and there's a bit of outside support, but David Dreier has a wall of money.
5) CA-45: Lean Repub. This race has also been under the radar, but the district is either #1 or #2 in the COUNTRY for foreclosures, and affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein can stand to benefit from movement toward Democratic solutions on the economy in her race against Mary Bono Mack.
6) CA-50: Lean Repub. This is the permanent tease district in California, and despite Nick Leibham's efforts to shake up the race, I'm not seeing Brian Bilbray taken down right now, especially because he's likely to whip up populist support in his base with his vote against the bailout.
7) CA-52: Likely Repub. It was always going to be an uphill battle for Mike Lumpkin in his race against Duncan Hunter's son running for Duncan Hunter's old seat. I'd like to see better signs here, but I'm coming up empty.
I rate everything else as Safe Republican at the moment. I'll do a legislative targeting in the next campaign update. Now, to the news (on the flip):
• CA-11: Apparently trying to win some kind of award for the worst attack website in history, Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report (a terribly designed website in its own right) has put together One Term Is Enough, in all of its way-too-large masthead, ridiculously-spare with no action items or columns, design out of Quark X-Press glory. Man, that's ugly. And I think the focus on Jerry McNerney's earmarks, given the summer of scandal that Dean Andal has lived through which is entirely about a construction contract with a community college (if he was in Congress, that would be, basically, an earmark), is kind of silly. Meanwhile, McNerney is up with his first ad of the cycle, focusing on his work on behalf of troops and veterans.
• AD-80: As soyinkafan noted, Manuel Perez and Gary Jeandron had a debate where Jeandron stated his support for a tax increase in Imperial County. That's not likely to help him with the conservative base, but clearly Jeandron understands that he has to move to left if he has any chance to win this seat. The Palm Springs Desert Sun has a debate report here.
• SD-19: Tony Strickland's latest endorsement is Erin Brockovich, of all people. However, this could be less of a reach across the aisle as it appears.
Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt got Strickland's Democratic opponent Hannah-Beth Jackson on the phone, who said she was "a little surprised" by Brockovich backing her opponent.
While Brockovich says she is a Democrat in the ad, she writes on her blog that she's ready to leave the party and become an independent.
"I am ready to turn because both parties are acting foolish and judgmental and attacking," she writes.
She also has kind words for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
"I am proud to be a member of the same Strong Woman's Club that Sarah Palin is in." Brockovich writes.
• AD-15: As has been noted, Joan Buchanan released her first campaign ad of the cycle. Her opponent Abram Wilson responded with his own ad, also biographical in nature, and his campaign has questioned the Buchanan spot and her commitment to fiscal responsibility. I suppose signing a "no-tax" pledge is the height of responsibility, then.
• AD-30: We were all expecting it, and now Nicole Parra has officially endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore in the election to replace her. This is a family fight moved into the political sphere - the Parra-Florez feud is well-known.
Parra's support of Danny Gilmore angered Democratic Party leaders, but comes as no surprise because she has been praising Gilmore for months.
"I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials," Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival.
• LA Board of Supes: Turns out that not only is Bernard Parks turning to Republicans to help him get elected over progressive State Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas, but for ten years he was a member of the American Independent Party (!).
According to voter registration forms certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder:
Bernard Parks left the Democratic Party and registered as an American Independent on February 12, 1992 - just in time to miss the opportunity to vote for President Bill Clinton.
He registered again as an American Independent on August 9, 1996.
President George Bush was elected in November 2000 - but Parks still wouldn't become a Democrat for nearly a year and a half.
Parks was fired as Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department on April 9, 2002. Shortly thereafter, he began to prepare to run for Los Angeles City Council, and re-registered as a Democrat on May 30, 2002. Less than a year later, he was elected to the City Council.
That is very strange, especially for an African-American to sign up with a party which is the legacy of George Wallace.
Before I get into this truth stretching, I've put 2 pictures here. Can you tell who is who? Because I'm pretty sure Dean Andal (right) and John Doolittle(left) are the same person. Seriously, it's quite possible that these two were separated at birth or something.
Andal's constultant, Ray McNally, then goes on to say what he meant to say was that he had better cash on hand. Richman then goes back to the Politicker reporter, who basically says, um, no, Andal said fundraising. Phew!
Anyway, Andal has raised about a million dollars, or so he claims, but CA-11 spans two media markets. And the Bay Area media market is pretty expensive, so Andal will need to do better than that if he hopes to take down an incumbent, even if that incumbent is freshman Jerry McNerney.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
The following California Democrats caved on retroactive immunity and disregarded their oath to, "support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign or domestic":
Joe Baca, Howard Berman, Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Jane Harman, Jerry McNerney, Nancy Pelosi, Brad Sherman, Adam Schiff, Ellen Tauscher
Pete Stark did not vote. This is the list of those who are potential targets of the Blue America PAC vs Retroactive Immunity which as of now has raised $310,673 to, "fund accountability for congressmembers supporting retroactive immunity and warrantless wiretaps." This money isn't going to send thank you cards to the members who did defend the constitution, this is primary money and cold cash to dump Steny Hoyer from leadership (Rahm Emanuel also capitulated).
As the battle moves to the Senate, all eyes are on Barack Obama nationally and Dianne Feinstein locally [(202) 224-3841].
As for 2010 primaries, it will be interesting to see what comes out of this. Carole Migden's 3rd place finish showed that entrenched politics matters less in a modern media environment. Ellen Tauscher is again practically begging to be primaried and in that district she's walking on thin ice. Joe Baca deserves particular scorn as the only Californian to sign the Blue Dog letter to Pelosi pushing capitulation (and a primary of Baca could probably receive significant institutional support from former members of the Hispanic Caucus). McNerney has outdone himself in contracting a full-blown case of Potomic Fever during his first term, every time he makes a move I think about asking for a refund. And Harman and Berman voting to cover-up warrantless wiretapping isn't going to do much to quell the rumors that they are pushing this because they are worried about their own culpability on the issue.
If you live in one of this districts, please call your member and ask them why. Comments and diaries with responses are highly encouraged.
The activities of Dean Andal, the Republican nominee running against Jerry McNerney for Congress in CA-11, have come up in a grand jury investigation.
This week, the San Joaquin County Civil Grand Jury released its report investigating misconduct by the San Joaquin Delta College Board of Trustees. It found that the Board had "squandered millions of dollars in taxpayer money and breached open government laws by sharing closed-session information to developers outside regular meetings." Tracy Press The confidential information apparently disclosed illegally was given to Andal and his associate, big Republican contributor and Sacramento developer Gerry Kamilos.
