You have to be a complete fool to claim to be a Democrat and then package in your campaign trial balloon a prepared statement of praise from Joe Lieberman. Anyone you has been paying any attention knows that is the kiss of death in Democratic politics, especially in a blue seat in a major blue geographic area effectively serviced by mass transit. I'm surprised we haven't seen any quotes (yet) from Dan Gerstein.
I don't have a problem with people who worked for Lieberman running for office, but there needs to be an apology right off the bat so voters recognize that the candidate has learned the errors of their ways and is willing to take responsibility all those who have suffered due to their support for Bush's main man in the senate.
But that isn't the route Yul Kwon (CA for Leiberman) is taking. Nope, he seems to think Lieberman praising him makes him look good (like Bush, or like Brownie during his confirmation). That just isn't the case. Speier v Yee would have been a hard fought but fair campaign. Yet anyone running on the Connecticut for Lieberman ticket in the Bay Area should expect far, far worse.
UPDATE: Even one of our friends at the California Majority Report agrees that, "being a former Lieberman staffer doesn't really win one a lot of friends in the Democratic Party."
After reading the electoral winds or the home fires, or what not, Sen Leland Yee has decided to stay out of the CA-12 race:
I am humbled by the outpouring of support from the people of San Francisco and San Mateo County who have encouraged me to run for Congress. However, at this time, my family and I have decided it is best to continue the work started in the State Senate. I am committed to addressing the critical issues currently before the State Legislature, including providing universal healthcare and protecting services for our working families. In the years to come, I look forward to working with the next member of Congress in serving the residents of the Peninsula.
With Yee out, it's hard to imagine anybody else who can come close to challenging Jackie Speier. But, all the same, I hear from Ms. Speier that she will be diligently beating the bushes for votes between now and June, and then November.
I'm currently at the Leo J Ryan memorial park for Jackie Speier's official congressional campaign kickoff. Wow. Not only is it the nicest day imaginable, but the crowd is amazingly huge (I'll have pics up later). I'm told the number is 812 signed in with over 40 of her 92 endorsed elected officials on hand. Anna Eshoo. Mike Thompson. John Burton. Scores of volunteers. Hot dogs and a cotton candy machine. The operation is top notch.
If it is possible to win a campaign with one event, the Speier campaign may have pulled it off today. The overwhelming show of support and organization is going to make anyone think long and hard about getting in the race. Speier's popularity in the district is legendary, but today was a powerful reminder of how deep that support runs. There's a poll after the jump asking your predictions as to whether you think Leland Yee gets in. I'm voting no.
Updated with pictures and speech exerts and news coverage and videos.
It's offical, Jackie Speier is in according to the San Francisco Examiner. Following the announced retirement of Tom Lantos, she will make her announcement Sunday to represent the solid blue CA-12.
Rep. Tom Lantos has been diagnosed with esophageal cancer and will not be running for re-election. Here is a bit of background on Lantos and his statement: examiner.com
Lantos, 79, is the only Holocaust survivor elected to Congress and is known for his dedication to human rights issues. He is serving his 14th term as a House member.
"It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a member of Congress," Lantos said in a statement. "I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country."
I am sad to hear of Lantos's illness. He has indeed lived a remarkable life, though I differ greatly from his hawkish positions with respect to Israel.
This does mean that there will not be a primary challenge in this district. Jackie Speier had already announced that she would be running against Lantos. I am bummed, that would have been a fun race and one that the blogosphere would have been heavily involved in. Look for Sen. Leland Yee to also run for this seat. It is not that often that there is an open House seat in the bay. This is a deep blue district and it deserves to be represented by a progressive.
(Huge news for Speier, Tourk is top-notch! - promoted by Bob Brigham)
(This is more of a quick hit than a diary, but I thought this news was just too juicy to ignore.)
It looks like Jackie Speier is pretty seriously considering running in CA-12 against Tom Lantos.
Demo derby: Former state Sen. Jackie Speier has just signed Mayor Gavin Newsom's onetime campaign manager Alex Tourk to help launch her still-unofficial campaign to unseat Peninsula Congressman Tom Lantos in next June's Democratic primary.
"She hasn't declared yet, but she asked me to join her team - and I'm honored to be part of it," Tourk said Friday. "And I'm confident when people are reminded of her record and talk to her one-on-one in house meetings, there will be no doubt her time is now."
Tourk was Gavin Newsom's campaign manager and deputy chief of staff ... until it was revealed that Newsom was sleeping with Tourk's wife, Ruby Rippey-Tourk. I don't know much about Tourk but he has a reputation for being a skilled political consultant so this is another sign that Speier is getting closer to running for CA-12.
Updated with a swell picture from Russiablog. -Lucas
Via TPM , word of internal polling from Jackie Speier that shows her with a huge 30 point lead over incumbent Tom Lantos. Speier's camp quotes a 57%-27% lead over Lantos is a straight "who would you support" poll of the 12th district.
The goodwill and name recognition that Speier built up during her primary run for Lt. Governor last year seem to be serving her well out of the gate. I'm sure Lantos will bounce back from numbers like these, especially once the incumbent protection kicks in. But if these numbers prove to be remotely accurate, it's gonna be a heckuva race on the peninsula.
(I received an email with this piece from a fellow public policy grad of Berkeley, Richard Harris Smith. Mr. Smith argues that Lantos could be more effective from outside of the halls of Congress than from within. It's a valid and reasonable point. Check it out here. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
There's another report on the Jackie Speier primary challenge for Tom Lantos in today's Matier and Ross:
she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know. "The good news is Congressman Lantos has finally come back to the district," she said, a digging reference to his trip home this week for the holidays and to attend a congressional subcommittee hearing on the Coast Guard's role in the big bay oil spill.
Challenge or not, Lantos, who will turn 80 in February, said through his spokeswoman: "I fully expect to win the primary in June and the general election next November. "As always, I intend to run a positive, constructive campaign," he added, "and I trust that any opponents will do the same."(SF Chron 11.24.07)
This district is literally 2 blocks from my home, as it knifes through the middle of San Francisco, but it's far different from Pelosi's seat. By any measure, it's a very progressive seat, but different factors are in play. It's a heavily minority seat, primarily Asian-Americans, but Speier was easily elected in her final run for state senate in 2002. (The districts don't perfectly overlap, but it's close.)
As has been mentioned around here a couple of times, Lantos has been known to use his Holocaust survivor history in discussions of foreign policy. And while these experiences are valid, questions remain about whether he can accurately represent the anti-war sentiments of the district. He supported the initial invasion, and has been fairly hawkish on Iran. However, he's been a vocal critic of recent Iraq strategy, and has been a useful voice for the Speaker as she seeks to promote better diplomacy.
It seems reasonably clear at this point that the Speaker would not be pleased to see Lantos taken out in a primary challenge. Lantos is a strong Pelosi supporter, and any way, the Speaker is no vocal supporter of primary challenges. However, given her relationship with Lantos, one would suspect that she would take this very seriously. Most assuredly we would see a strong Pelosi endorsement of Lantos, likely along with some money and a bit of her time if the race is close as we approach June.
There are a lot of competing forces at play here, a challenge to Lantos would be a very bold step for Speier, but it's still an open question at this point. However, Speier seems to have some tentative support in the netroots.
The Capitol Alert AM Email raises an interesting point:
If Speier does jump in, that may open the door for a third candidate -- Sen. Leland Yee, who replaced her in the Senate. All three represent San Francisco's South Bay and, unlike Lantos or Speier, it's the middle of the election cycle for Yee, who wouldn't have to risk his own seat to run.
But there is another issue lurking in the back here: Will Leland Yee run if Jackie runs. A three-way race would likely favor Lantos, but that's hardly clear. Here's the thing for Yee, if he doesn't run and then Jackie wins, the seat is out of play for another 20 years. If Lantos wins, then he can run in an open seat whenever Lantos retires. While it's not totally clear how he would affect the race, I think it's almost a no-brainer for Yee if Speier enters.
Yee has been something of an enigma in the City. On the Board of Supervisors, he represented a heavily Chinese district, which, for the City, is/was fairly conservative. In the Assembly he was known primarily for going after video games. He has come up with some interesting legislation, but isn't particularly loved by some of the major clubs in the City. However, the power of the Chinese vote would assure him a decent result if he ran.
This should be very interesting. It looks like Jackie Speier, who was a fine state Senator who just missed in a there-are-no-losers primary for Lt. Governor with John Garamendi last year, is going to run for Congress in a primary against longtime incumbent Tom Lantos.
"It's Time!" declares an e-mail circulated by supporters to "friends" and "fans" this past week, announcing the first organizing meeting of the Jackie Speier for Congress Exploratory Committee on Tuesday at a home in Hillsborough.
Speier has been consulting with friends and supporters about a run since a poll conducted by allies in January showed her a 2-1 favorite among voters in the 12th Congressional District, which covers northern San Mateo County and parts of San Francisco.
Speier has since hired at least one staffer to start gearing up. Nonetheless, she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know.
(Here is a link to the article. Just to clarify probing weakness isn't a push poll, but speaking of polls please take the one in the extended entry - promoted by blogswarm)
The SF Examiner reported today that a phone poll has recently been conducted pitting Lt. Gov. primary loser and former SF Peninsula St. Sen. Jackie Speier against Congressman Tom Lantos. Also included in the poll were South San Francisco Assemblyman Gene Mullin and San Mateo County Supe Jerry Hill. Mullin and Hill denied sponsoring the poll.
The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I'll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.
Lt.Gov
Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren't paying off for him like he would have hoped. Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion. Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn't seem to be playing out. Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier's and Figueroa's home region of Northern California. She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics. Speier's large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women. She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure. On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.
Attorney General
Jerry Brown's name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn't hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo. Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided. I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs. On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.
Controller
This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided. Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18. Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15). This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member. But, at this point, it's too close to call. And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns. I'm excited to see either man win. On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.
Treasurer
Bill Lockyer is running unopposed. On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.
Secretary Of State
Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19. However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided. Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it's hard to glean much from the poll. And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website? That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen. C'mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century. McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.
Prop 82
Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently. And the news today is not good either. Currently it's losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No. The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working. And I must admit, I've heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program. I think at some level people just don't like instituting such a large program via direct democracy. Also, part of this is the additional taxes. Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes. However, I think it's going to be a close race for 82. The SacBee notes that:
Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.
"We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire," James said. "We have a number of advantages going into this election."
But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.
Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)
So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the "who" of turnout will be key. If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.
The League of Pissed Off Voters' mission is to engage pissed off 17-35 year olds in the democratic process to build a progressive governing majority in our lifetime. We currently have 17 official chapters around the country.
I'm active in the San Francisco chapter, and I wanted to share our voter guide with you and hear the Calitics perspective on it. In particular, I think Prop 81 and the Controller's race are interesting ones that aren't getting any press.
We raised money to print 20,000 of these bad boys, which we're distributing around town. We haven't used a dime from candidates or candidate committees.
Governor: Phil Angelides!
Lieutenant Governor: Jackie Speier!
Secretary of State: Debra Bowen!
Attorney General: Jerry Brown
Controller: John Chiang
State Senate District 8: None of the Above
State Assembly District 12: Janet Reilly!
Prop 81 - Library Construction Bond: No
Prop 82 - Universal Preschool: Hell Yeah
Prop A - Stop Homicides Now: Hell Yeah
Prop B - Ellis Act Eviction Disclosure: Hell Yeah
Prop C - Transbay Terminal Authority Shuffle: Yes
Prop D - Laguna Honda Patient Admission and Rezoning: No
As a Southern California resident, I'm disgusted with John Garamendi's attack ads against Jackie Speier. I am so impressed with Jackie's positive ads; they really emphasize her character and accomplishments. She is a strong enough candidate to promote herself in an entirely positive manner.
Don't we want to elect people in California who can run on their own merits? I was already voting for Jackie because of her record on standing up for women, protecting financial privacy, and her goals of using the LG position to truly serve California public universities. But Garamendi's attacks would have pushed me over the edge, even if I hadn't already made up my mind.
Well, I've voted in California's June primary. That's not really surprising: since I am ordinarily trying to get out somebody's vote, I always vote absentee. The last thing I usually have time to do on Election Day is vote. This time I really will be absent, out of the country.
So yesterday I pulled out the two huge paper ballots and did the deed. Here are some of my votes, local first, some with an explanation.
I think both Lt. Governor candidates have aspects in their favor. Jackie Speier has a tremendous air of potential around her. She just might be the first female governor of California. She is my state senator, and I have really appreciated her efforts, both on behalf of her constituents and for the state in general. She is a friend of marriage equality and has been a strong supporter of environmental protection. Check out her issues page for more info.
However, Garamendi is no dummy politician either. He has a tremendous amount of experience in California politics. (At least in the post term limits era) He wins elections and understands the issues. He knows what's going on here. Recently, dave j of seeingtheforest cross-posted a story about the attack ads by the insurance lobby against Garamendi. It's quite an interesting story. Basically, Garamendi impliments some overdue regulations. The insurance companies don't dig on that, so they threaten him with a $2 million attack ad campaign if he does it. Garamendi does, and oh, btw, he sends a letter to the FBI and Bill Lockyer accusing the insurance lobby of extortion.
It's all an interesting and sordid tale. The real meat and potatoes of the blogosphere.
Dr. Michelle Kraus, a poster at Huffington Post, sees it from Garamendi's point of view:
California Voters - it's time to say no - to election rigging and lobbying by big industry. It's time to take back the democratic process and fight for a candidate that will not bend. We need to take back our power and raise our voices and help candidates that are honest like John Garamendi. Trust me when I tell you that this is not a ploy to gain attention. The reality is the money is being poured into "direct mail campaigns targeting 1.5 million people in 52 counties. The money will be provided by several major auto insurance companies, including the above listed State Farm, Farmers, Allstate, Safeco and 21st Century." (Huffington Post 5/16/06)
But surely there is another way to take this: a well-connected and well-financed interest chose to spend some money to influence a decision. This is good old fashioned special interests at work. Or to flip it around, let's consider this: Would Garamendi be screaming so loudly if the insurance companies just took back a positive ad campaign? So, in a little hypothetical world, let's say the insurance lobby had promised Garamendi a $2million independent expenditure. They then take it back when Garamendi does something to hurt their interests. Certainly, no politician would have the nerve to say anything about that. That's just how politics works.
And the SacBee uses this logic:
For the public watching all this, it's hard to see the crime here. People in our democracy, even a powerful special interest, are free to denounce decisions government officials make that they don't like. It's done all the time. Ask Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Public employee unions spent millions to attack him during the last special election. That wasn't a crime. It's called politics, free speech, democracy in the raw.(SacBee 5/15/06)
In the raw indeed. Very raw. It's not like Jackie Speier is any great friend of the insurance industry. Heck, one of her top economic issues is going after the Workers Comp deform - Schwarzenegger's big achievement (hah!). This is classic dirty (but legal) special interest politics. Garamendi got abused by the special interest that he has the most power over during his tenure at the Insurance Commission. We should support Garamendi for standing up to this big, bad special interest (Hey Arnold...you ever think of standing up to your special interests? No...you just pick on those who you don't think can hurt you. Oops!). But, let's not let this one issue dominate the Lt. Governor's campaign until June.
How do we get rid of these stories that make you just saw "ewwww!" and want to take a shower? Well, Clean Money is a great place to start. And, it looks like the Nurses plan will be on the ballot in November.
Good and bad news for Jackie Speier. Her own internal polling has very similar results as the Field Poll released last week.
If that wasn't bad enough, her own pollster had almost identical numbers, giving Garamendi a 32 percent to 22 percent lead.(SFGate Blog 4/24/06)
Garamendi has been on the last seven statewide ballots (correct me if I'm wrong), so the fact that he is better known should be no surprise. At this point, that is what polling is all about in the LT. Gov race. We aren't talking about a position that most Californians are considering that much. Most Cal Dems couldn't tell you any difference between the three candidates. Also, Speier is leading the money race with over $2 million in the bank.
And finally, Figueroa and Speier are poaching on each other's power base in the Bay Area. That won't change, but it is something that should be considered.
So instead of just accepting the lnumbers, Speier's pollster went on to try to forecast what the numbers would be after she spent the money to have a statewide discussion with the electorate of the Democratic primary for the next 6 weeks. He did this by giving descriptions of what the candidates want you to think about them. Even though this was an internal poll, the descriptions of Speier's opponents were pretty positive. These results were better:
When the descriptions were read and the numbers recounted, Speier moved ahead of Garamendi in the Moore poll, 41 percent to 36 percent.
Well, this may be true, but at this point, there is only 6 weeks before the election. I personally really like Jackie, most because of her potential, but she needs to do some work on communicating with the voters...and fast.
