It isn't clear where Brad Sherman and Howard Berman will run for re-election. However, as it stands right now, there are pretty good odds that they are destined for a Dem-on-Dem bloodbath. Sherman, who is sitting on $4 million in his campaign account, put out the first volley in the form of a poll showing a nice lead:
Congressman Brad Sherman is the likely winner of the election in the new 30th congressional district. These are the results of a just completed survey in the new congressional district from initial match-ups with no information given about either candidate:
Three-way race:
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat: 42%
Businessman Mark Reed, Republican: 26%
Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat: 17%
Two-way race:
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat: 51%
Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat: 24%
Sherman currently represents just over half the voters in the new 30th CD. Sherman is strong in his current district (CD27), winning 52 percent support there in the three way match-up with only 9 percent for Berman and 24 percent for Reed. In contrast, Berman barely ekes out a plurality in the less than a quarter of the district that he currently represents (CD28), leading Sherman by only 32 percent to 30 percent, while Reed draws 21 percent support.
Whether this election comes to pass is still up in doubt, but there is no question that Sherman is preparing for it.
The following California Democrats caved on retroactive immunity and disregarded their oath to, "support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign or domestic":
Joe Baca, Howard Berman, Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Jane Harman, Jerry McNerney, Nancy Pelosi, Brad Sherman, Adam Schiff, Ellen Tauscher
Pete Stark did not vote. This is the list of those who are potential targets of the Blue America PAC vs Retroactive Immunity which as of now has raised $310,673 to, "fund accountability for congressmembers supporting retroactive immunity and warrantless wiretaps." This money isn't going to send thank you cards to the members who did defend the constitution, this is primary money and cold cash to dump Steny Hoyer from leadership (Rahm Emanuel also capitulated).
As the battle moves to the Senate, all eyes are on Barack Obama nationally and Dianne Feinstein locally [(202) 224-3841].
As for 2010 primaries, it will be interesting to see what comes out of this. Carole Migden's 3rd place finish showed that entrenched politics matters less in a modern media environment. Ellen Tauscher is again practically begging to be primaried and in that district she's walking on thin ice. Joe Baca deserves particular scorn as the only Californian to sign the Blue Dog letter to Pelosi pushing capitulation (and a primary of Baca could probably receive significant institutional support from former members of the Hispanic Caucus). McNerney has outdone himself in contracting a full-blown case of Potomic Fever during his first term, every time he makes a move I think about asking for a refund. And Harman and Berman voting to cover-up warrantless wiretapping isn't going to do much to quell the rumors that they are pushing this because they are worried about their own culpability on the issue.
If you live in one of this districts, please call your member and ask them why. Comments and diaries with responses are highly encouraged.
Most Californians are sure that their election is over. All the media coverage is blaring babble from the most recent presidential debate in distant states as well as other inane minutia that denigrates the process.
Yet, if you look closely, really closely, you may find evidence that there is yet another election coming up here in June. Yes, June 3rd to be exact.
This season, in spite of the state being billions of dollars in debt, and the cries of horror about budget cuts, our state legislators gave us the special treat of spending double on TWO elections!!!.
And the citizens who ARE paying attention to the obscure references to the June 3rd primary are again faced with figuring out who is worth voting for, if anyone.
With little information in the mainstream media, many turn to their local Democratic Clubs and special interest groups for guidance. Or, they look to their Democratic party. This guidance most often comes in the form of the last minute slate mailers, the topic of this conversation.
There is a huge fight right now to fix the FISA bill, with a new one called "The RESTORE Act" (H.R. 3773). Two big issues: 1) Will they include language that let's the FBI issue blanket, rather than targeted warrants? 2) Will they give immunity to the phone companies who broke the law because Bush told them too? The bill is up in the House and the final language is a moving target. It is the crucial time to get in touch with people who might be persuaded to ensure good language goes to the floor for a vote.
The bill caves in to Bush's fear-mongering in a major way: it does NOT required the government to get an individual warrant before wiretapping Americans' phones and emails. Instead, it allows for program or basket "warrants," which aren't really warrants at all. They're the modern-day equivalent of allowing government agents to sit in our living rooms, recording our personal conversations. Only they're more frightening, because the government now has the capacity to monitor us remotely and without our knowledge, and to save the information in a secret database forever.
One good thing is that the bill doesn't yet include immunity for telecom companies that broke the law by handing over Americans' private communications to the government, but we're hearing immunity could be added back to the bill at any time.
Here are a few folks I know need to hear from you. Give them a ring. It is much more effective than sending email, though you can do that too.
CA-29 Adam Schiff Schiff 2022254176
CA-14 Anna Eshoo Eshoo 2022258104
CA-27 Brad Sherman Sherman 2022255911
CA-28 Howard Berman Berman 2022254695
CA-39 Linda Sanchez Sanchez 2022256676
CA-35 Maxine Waters Waters 2022252201
CA-01 Mike Thompson Thompson 2022253311
CA-08 Nancy Pelosi Pelosi 2022254965
CA-16 Zoe Lofgren Lofgren 2022253072
Woohoo! Jerry did it! Jerry McNerney has managed to become the most un-progressive Democrat of the entire California congressional delegation. For those keeping score at home, Jerry's 82.45 was about a half point lower than the next CA Dem, Jim Costa, that progressive stalwart, at 82.97. And for all the talk of Harman changing her ways, she's still worse than even Joe Baca, almost 7 points worse from a very safe Dem seat.
For all of you CA-45 fans, "moderate" Mary Bono came in with a stellar 4.42 Chips are Down score. So, for all the bluster of the SCHIP vote, she's still dancing the same jig as the rest of her party.
On thing must be said, the Speaker has done an excellent job at preserving unity amongst the caucus. Whether that means she's being too incremental and/or ineffective, or just laying down the law is the big question. The reason her approval rating, and the Congress in general, is down has a whole lot to do with the fact that little has changed on the Iraq front. So, would it be better to have a speaker who is more willing to take risks? Perhaps, but the impediment of the president always lingers over her head, veto pen in hand. So, whether the unity is really there, is an open question. Full data over the flip.
(I was working on a similar post, but I'll still post my own, with all CA data and some other miscellany. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
The problem with most scorecards is that they are written by lobbyists concerned with always getting the votes of potential supporters. Thus, there is an equal weighting while in the real world not all votes are equal. In fact, regardless of everything else, some votes are dealbreakers and when they show up on scorecards as one of 12 votes or something, it looks silly. However, Progressive Punch has a new "when the chips are down" scorecard. After the flip is the ratings of CA's congressional delegation, in descending order.
I'm guessing that at tonight's Calitics' Actblue Celebrations there will be a lot of discussion about the votes to condemn MoveOn. The CA delegation split 50-50 in the senate and 16 yea and 17 nay in the house -- wedged successfully by the GOP in half. After the flip is the scorecard.
