• CA-04: I love this video from the Charlie Brown campaign. They traveled 412 miles down to Thousand Oaks to talk to constituents of California's Alan Keyes, State Senator and professional office-chaser Tom McClintock. It's really funny and drives the point home that McClintock is a do-nothing at best and a dangerous radical at worst:
And get this, McClintock is now running on the state budget, the Republican version of which has a 19% approval rating. That's like putting Nixon, Bush and Cheney in your campaign ad.
• CA-26, CA-45: Not one but two! Both Russ Warner AND Julie Bornstein have been added to the DCCC "Races To Watch" list. This is a prelude to being listed as Red To Blue candidates. If the D-Trip comes through with some money, maybe threatened incumbents like Dreier will have to stop mouthing off about other GOP races and start paying attention to their own. UPDATE: Mike Lumpkin (CA-52) is on that list now too, which is a pleasant surprise.
• CA-46: When John Fund tries to target a Dem challenger, you know something's going wrong. Fund is sounding the alarm on Debbie Cook, as Dana Rohrabacher tries to greenwash himself with a scheme to build solar-power plants on federal land without environmental impact studies. Fund says that Cook called this "an extreme position," but he chopped the quote:
Democratic challenger and Mayor of Huntington Beach Debbie Cook agrees that the process of approving solar power plants is sluggish and needs to be sped up, but not at the expense of the environment.
"This is just another extreme position by Dana Rohrabacher. What we need to do is come up with a balanced approach that streamlines these projects, because they're critically important to our energy future, but at the same time recognizes the impacts to the environment," Cook said.
Rohrabacher's doing the equivalent of saying he'll grow jobs by hiring 10,000 federally funded serial killers, and then wondering why everyone's worried about the mass death ("You wanted jobs, didn't you?"). There's a sensible way to free up the bottlenecks and a rash one. Rohrabacher chose door #2.
• CA-42: The internal poll results released by Ed Chau are intriguing (showing him up 44-38 after a mix of positive and negative information released on the candidates), but I don't think candidates who have minimal bank accounts should do polls stating the numbers after a mix of information if they don't have the money to get that information out. But if Gary Miller truly has a 28% re-elect number as the poll states, he could be in trouble.
That's a motley crew now isn't it? It's the same crew that we've seen on that list for quite a few years. And, after Doolittle is replaced (hopefully by the always friendly Charlie Brown), we'll see one of the most corrupt, Doolittle, drop off the list. It's probably for the best, as he's getting a little too close to the indictments for comfort.
Unfortunately, a California Democrat joins the list, which I'm pretty sure is a first. (UPDATE: Apparently Maxine Waters has been on the list in the past) Rep. Laura Richardson has joined the list as a "dishonorable mention." CREW points to Ms. Richardson's very bizarre, and embarassing, real estate transactions:
Because it is unusual for someone with such a deplorable credit history to be repeatedly approved for mortgages, the House ethics committee should investigate whether: (1) Rep. Richardson received a preferential loan in violation of House rules; (2) whether she had received other favorable treatment from lenders in the past; and (3) what, if any, official actions she may have traded to acquire these preferential terms. The House ethics committee should also consider whether Rep. Richardson’s failure to include her mortgages on her financial disclosure forms violates House rules.
In addition, the committee should examine the timing of Rep. Richardson’s most recent default and the $77,500 she loaned her congressional campaign committee. By funneling money that should have gone to pay her mortgage and property taxes to her congressional campaign, Rep. Richardson engaged in conduct that does not reflect creditably on the House.
Well, here's hoping that this can be resolved in a way that lifts the cloud over the California Democratic delegation.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Despite the unwillingness of our Democratic Congress (Rep. Wexler notwithstanding) to do their Constitutional duty to hold the criminals in the Bush Administration accountable for their actions, the major sacrifices made by and injuries done to Valerie Plame, Joe Wilson and their colleagues and associates will not soon be forgotten by those of us who care deeply about our country. This nation owes them a debt of gratitude for their service and their willingness to tell the truth in spite of incredible hostility and pressure from a corrupt and utterly immoral White House and its cronies.
Those progressive patriots of you who live in the Southern California area will have the opportunity to meet Joe Wilson himself at a fundraiser in Beverly Hills tomorrow (Thursday) at 6:30pm for the equally courageous Netroots candidate Ron Shepston. I'll be there as well, for what that's worth!
On Thursday the House of Representatives passed legislation that would provide federal underwriting for new loans to 500,000 homeowners at risk of foreclosures, as well as increase the limit on FHA loans to $729,750, include tax credits (which are loans to be paid back over 15 years) for first-time home buyers, tighten oversight of the lending industry and provide billions in grants to the states to buy and repair foreclosed homes for resale. Every California Republican voted against it except one - Diamond Bar's Gary Miller, not known as any kind of moderate squish (he voted with the majority of House Republicans 96% of the time last year). The housing crisis is playing out in districts like his, and Miller can't afford to ignore it.
...Miller, a land developer, called the housing downturn the most serious one he had seen in more than 30 years. "I really wish I could support my Republican colleagues," he said. "But I'm very concerned about the marketplace.
"A lot of people are losing their homes," he added. "That not only hurts them, but the neighbors around them because of foreclosure. Their home value drops." [...]
Miller, whose district includes parts of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Orange counties, disputes the Republican portrayal of the bill as a bailout. Under the measure, lenders must agree to take a significant loss on a homeowner's debt in return for a federal guarantee that the reduced loan will be repaid.
"I'm not in any way supporting the concept of bailing people out who made bad decisions," Miller said. "But things happen in life. . . . There are a lot of innocent people out there."
Here's why this is notable. Miller is one of the greediest and most unscrupulous developers out there. In fact, part of his calculus may just be that it'll help bail out homeowners who can stay in the developments from which he profits. However, his concern for "innocent people" hasn't been borne out by his prior voting record. What's different here is that he ran unopposed last year, even as the FBI was investigating him for tax evasion and shady land deals. This year, three opponents have stepped up to challenge him, and if nothing else, they have forced him to at least pretend his district exists. This is going to be true in every district we're contesting in November. The twin victories by Democrats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana (and possibly another in Mississippi next Tuesday) has House Republicans ranging from mildly nervous to scared out of their gourds. And as more swing seats open up (buh-bye, Vito Fossella), there's no way the NRCC, the campaign arm of the Republicans in the House, can step in with any cash infusion to bail out an incumbent. Tom Cole, the head of the NRCC (for now), has basically told lawmakers that they're on their own. So you're going to see more out-of-character votes like this for the rest of the year. And you will be able to tell who's more nervous by their positions on these votes. I'd say Gary Miller has a few beads of perspiration on the forehead.
You can also see which issues these lawmakers think will resonate in their particular districts. Obviously the housing crisis is hitting CA-42 hard.
(yes, I do some netroots work for Ron Shepston, who's one of the Democrats running in CA-42 to replace Miller)
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
I noticed this before Swing State Project codified it, but there were some stunning numbers in the Q1 Congressional fundraising reports that augur well for Democratic upsets in November.
We know that Charlie Brown is raising tons of money and has close to $600,000 cash on hand, and his challengers are spending all their money in a bruising primary race (Doug Ose has a million dollars in debts on his books). We know that three California challengers raised six figures in the first quarter (Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham) and have been consistently doing so. What's notable is the lack of fundraising prowess among key Republicans.
Dean Andal is supposed to be one of the top GOP challengers in the whole country. Yet he could only manage $90,000 in the first quarter, which considering how much effort the GOP is putting into his race is embarrassing.
More interesting to me are the incumbents. David Dreier raised $136,000, not all that much more than Russ Warner's $110,000. Dan Lungren raised around $100,000, not much more than Bill Durston's $75,000 (very respectable for his grassroots campaign). And then there are two in Orange County that are shocking. Dana Rohrabacher was OUTRAISED by Debbie Cook in CA-46: $47,000 to $39,000. And Cook didn't get a full quarter in because she didn't announce until late January. (On a similar note, Julie Bornstein was able to raise $29,000 in just a few weeks after her announcement). And in CA-42, Gary Miller was outraised by Ed Chau, a carpetbagger from Montebello, and if you add in Ron Shepston's total Miller was significantly outraised by his challengers.
That's quite incredible. Miller and Rohrabacher might be dismissing the effort against them, and they still have plenty of cash on hand. But as a symbol of support in the district, clearly Democrats have the momentum all over the state. We're going to be very competitive this cycle, and if one of these districts hits, the cash-poor NRCC and the pathetic fundraising prowess of these Republicans isn't going to save them.
From the beginning, this campaign has been about the netroots taking the next step to becoming the mainstream. You've been fantastic, but we need more if we are to win the primary. If we implement the plan below we will win and set the stage to win in November. We need to make a lot of noise and talk to a lot of people. Not enough people know about us and even fewer understand why we are doing this.
Without the money, there is no campaign - so I'm not going to beat around the bush. We need money; we need it now. We need your help. If you believe in candidates emerging from the netroots, like I know you do, then please contribute.
Click on this button to go to ActBlue.
Jump below for a story and some details on how your money will be spent.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
(strong stuff from our netroots candidate, Ron Shepston. His candidate website is here. - promoted by David Dayen)
I haven't been around much in the past few months. In fact, I've been busy getting ready for our bust-out campaign. Call time and endorsement pushes are very time consuming especially when you have to still work to put food on the table. With this post I am back.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
My column at Capitol Weekly about Ron Shepston's experiences during the Southern California wildfires is up here. It's really a pretty amazing story.
As the flames closed in, and evacuation was recommended, Ron and his family packed up. One of his neighbors, a 37-year retired battalion chief with the Orange County Fire Authority named Mike, had plenty of experience with fighting fires, and with the limited official resources, he thought he could help protect the community if the fire engulfed the canyon. The problem was that his body was beaten from years of service. After escorting his family to safer ground, Ron told Mike he was willing to help. "I'll be your legs," he said.
Ignoring a mandatory evacuation, Ron and Mike went to work, setting up hoses, hooking into hydrants, watering down wood structures, and clearing fuel away from danger. They also provided assistance to federal, state and local firefighters about prime lookout spots to view the progress of the fire, and the local terrain. This lasted for 10 days, a non-stop firefighting effort in an attempt to protect the community. "I could hear the roar of the flames on the ridge," Ron said, "There were flames rising 100 feet."
Go throw me a bone and read the whole thing. There's some discussion of Orange County's failure to protect its residents by gutting firefighting operations, as well as the stark contrast between a leader like Shepston and Gary Miller, who has yet to make even one public statement about the fires. This will be an issue in the campaign.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around. Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand. The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges. So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008. And saying "Hello, I'm a Republican member of Congress" just doesn't rake in the money like it used to. Here's the list:
John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter. And Doolittle's problems are well-documented.
Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven't fully stepped up. Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don't have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay. But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
CREW just released their 3rd annual "Most Corrupt Members of Congress" report. They list 22 members of Congress as the most corrupt. And with 5 members, California wins for the most on the list!!!
On behalf of all Golden Staters, I want to thank all of these Representatives for having the wisdom, foresight, and venality to give the state this honor. Sure, the ENTIRE Alaska delegation is on the list, making them slightly mnore corrupt. But 5 out of 22 is not bad. Not bad indeed. Especially when you consider that there are only 19 federal representatives who are Republican, and 5 of them made the list! That's called dedication!
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, House Republican Whip Roy Blunt and 11 other members of Congress have been subpoenaed to testify in the trial of a defense contractor charged with bribing jailed former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
All of the lawmakers said they do not intend to comply with the subpoenas.
Those subpoenad include Hunter, Lewis, Doolittle, and as a bonus, Rep. Darrell Issa, who claimed "This subpoena is a mystery." House lawyers have said it would be against House rules to comply.
It looks like Wilkes' team of lawyers is set to argue that the lawmakers asked for the bribes, rather than the other way around. I think giving bribes is a crime, regardless of who asked for them, so I don't know how this will fly. But clearly, this could damage some Congressional reputations. Or in the case of the CREW list, enhance them! Let's go for 6 in 2008!
I won't able to do blog roundups until week after next -- any blog roundups between now and then will be created by the far busier members of the editorial staff, so make sure to thank them.
We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it's time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney's "I'm a moderate" comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.
But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
It's been quite a wild week in the 42nd Congressional District. Ever since Ron Shepston announced that he's running against Dirty Gary Miller, there have been quite some interesting developments that have occurred in the race to replace Dirty Gary. We've had the bloggers talk about going offline. We've had the California Democratic Party go online to announce its new website targeting Dirty Gary. We've heard rumors that a former Republican politician might reemerge to challenge Dirty Gary in the primary. Oh yes, and what did Ron say about John Kerry?
Follow me after the flip for all the latest dirt on Dirty Gary...
It seems that Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA) not only has judgment problems when it comes to his ethics, but also in the way he dresses on the Hill. On Monday, he apparently wore slippers and a Hawaiian shirt in the Captiol while conducting business.
Granted, it is summer, when dress codes tend to get a little looser in the face of Washington's starched-shirt- wilting heat. But a slipper-clad Rep. Gary Miller (R-Calif.) apparently took the summer casual look a little too far and he got a dressing down for, well, dressing down!
ROLL CALL reports: During a House vote at about 7:30 p.m. on Monday, Miller strode onto the floor wearing a look better suited to a backyard cookout than the House chamber: a loose-fitting Hawaiian shirt, linen pants and slippers.
The sartorial faux pas even prompted Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), who was presiding over the chamber at the time, to weigh in: "The chair must remind Members that the proper standard of dress in the chamber is business attire, which includes both coat and tie for gentlemen."
