The protracted count is finally over, and it appears that Hannah-Beth Jackson's outsize effort to defeat Phony Tony Strickland has come up just short. With only a few hundred ballots left to count, Strickland currently maintains a 903 vote lead out of 414,587 ballots cast. That margin is .2%: well within the margin necessary for a mandatory recount request by the Jackson campaign. Unfortunately, as the pro-Strickland blog Policy Report correctly notes, such a recount effort would almost certainly be insufficient to net Hannah-Beth the votes she would need to overtake Strickland's lead, even were the final votes to close the gap to 700 or 800:
According to some experts, a recount of all 400,000+ ballots might yield a variance of 150 votes in one direction or the other at great cost. Gaining 800 votes in an election of this size is next to impossible.
With the latest totals showing Strickland hanging on to the lead by a little over 900 votes, Jackson said a victory was not mathematically possible.
"I'm disappointed, but I think that it's pretty clear at this point in time, we're not going to be able to catch up," she said.
Strickland is due to be sworn in Monday in Sacramento. He will represent voters in most of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties as well as the northwest corner of Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita and Stevenson Ranch.
The outcome has been in doubt since the Nov. 4 election, but by Wednesday both candidates agreed that Strickland had won.
(sometimes, close recount elections don't go our way. - promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))
It is with a heavy heart that I report the news that things aren't looking good in the Jackson-Strickland race in SD-19. Strickland has retaken a lead in the provisional and absentee counts that he is unlikely to relinquish barring a small miracle, as favorable Santa Barbara County is nearly entirely counted, leaving pro-Strickland Ventura County and the pro-Strickland sliver of L.A. County to probably pad his lead. The Santa Barbara Independent has more:
Tony Strickland surged to a 1,560 vote lead over Hannah-Beth Jackson Wednesday, on the strength of newly counted ballots in Ventura County. Santa Barbara county's registrar also reported counting new ballots, which favored the Democrat, but not by nearly enough to make up for the Republican's strength in Ventura.
It is the first significant lead for either candidate in the closely-contested 19th state senate district since Election Day, and puts Strickland in a commanding position, as counting continues in three counties with portions of the sprawling district.
The overall tally now stands at:
Strickland 187,631 (50.20)
Jackson 186,071 (49.79)
This is our first attempt at endorsements on a broad scale in the legislature. It is not comprehensive, we simply don't have the resources to get to every seat. But, we tried to get to most of the competitive seats. We'll provide a bit of commentary on some of these over the flip. State Senate races tomorrow, and Congressional races on Wednesday. But, today, Assembly races:
AD-08: Mariko Yamada
AD-10: Alyson Huber
AD-15: Joan Buchanan
AD-27: Emily Reilly
AD-37: Ferial Masry
AD-40: Laurette Healey
AD-78: Any Democratic candidate other than Auday Arabo.
AD-80: Manuel Perez
This weekend I attended a pre-convention meeting for Region 10 of the California Democratic Party, which stretches from Santa Monica all the way up to the Monterey/San Luis Obispo County line. This is a big coastal region, parts of which have not been sufficiently Democratic over the years. But there are some great people in the trenches doing the necessary work to change that. Here are some disconnected thoughts:
