Elissa Lynn, a meteorologist for the Department of Water Resources, said the water content in the snow would have to be between 120 to 130 percent of normal by April 1 to replenish the state's reservoirs, the largest of which are less than half full. "That's just the snowpack," Lynn said. "We need to have rainfall in the mountains continuing through the spring, contributing to the total water supply. That's what we had hardly any of last year."
Rain and snow would have to fall virtually every day this month to get back to normal, a highly unlikely scenario, according to Steve Anderson, meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
The water interests who have spit out grim news releases the last two months were silent Monday in the face of the growing snowpack.
Those who would like to build new reservoirs and canals and to weaken environmental regulations have invoked the drought like a mantra in recent weeks...
Sen. Dave Cogdill, a Republican who represents agriculture-dependent Modesto, called the drought "epic" when he introduced a $10-billion water bond package last week that includes funding for new reservoirs and other infrastructure.
There's no doubt that folks like Cogdill are trying to take advantage of the crisis - but the water crisis is real, even if it's not quite as bad right now as it looks. On a regional basis the situation is still serious - the Monterey Peninsula, for example, overshot its carrying capacity long ago and has been overdrawing the Carmel River for decades. Growing propulations and more water-intensive agriculture have strained existing resources. And global warming will lead to less water availability for California.
Still, it's important to refuse to let California get shock doctrined by those pushing bad water solutions using the drought as a cover. That was the message Debbie Cook delivered on desalination in a post at The Oil Drum:
The next worst idea to turning tar sands into synthetic crude is turning ocean water into municipal drinking water. Sounds great until you zoom in on the environmental costs and energetic consequences. It may be technically feasible, but in the end it is unsustainable and will be just one more stranded asset.
We're debating desal here in Monterey as well, and Debbie Cook's criticisms of the concept are extremely valuable to us - and to a state that, despite this week's rain, still has to figure out how to secure its water future.
Former Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook stopped bad developments in parks and beaches, and led the efforts to clean up the water off Orange County's coast. In the meantime, she became a national leader on energy issues.
Costa Mesa City Councilwoman Katrina Foley has led the fight to improve her city's quality of life, fought for better parks and increased opportunities for her city's youth as others on the Costa Mesa City Council were more concerned with ugly immigrant bashing.
Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom helped to create Orange County's visionary Great Park, and her leadership has made Irvine a model of sustainable planning, green building and environmental stewardship.
You can meet them this Saturday, Feb. 28 as they join the Orange County League of Conservation Voters for a roundtable discussion on building a green political farm team for Orange County.
Environmental Roundtable
"2010 Goal: Progressive Change in Orange County"
Saturday, February 28, 2009
9:30 am to 12:30 pm
Santiago Creek Wildlife and Watershed Center
600 E. Memory Lane, Santa Ana
To RSVP contact Robin Everett at robin_e1@hotmail.com or call 949-338-5356
Your last word in what's happenin' (apologies to Raj and Rerun):
• Here's George Skelton having some fun and making up statistics to scapegoat immigrants, failing to mention the economic activity they produce and the Social Security payroll taxes they pay but never collect. It's simply wrong to pander to xenophobes the way Skelton does in this piece, under the guise of "being honest." If you want to be honest, explain that, as baby boomers age, the fiscal impact of younger workers in the country is positive, at least so says that left-wing rag the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and countless other studies.
• Debbie Cook has resufaced at the new site OC Progressive, and she writes a strong post about to need to collectively focus on energy as crucial to our future as a sustainable planet. It's really good.
• The Museum of Contemporary Art in L.A. reduced its staff by 20%. Not only construction and manufacturing jobs are affected by the meltdown. The arts and non-profits are among the hardest-hit.
• Just why did the NFL and the Los Angeles NBC affiliate ban an ad on marriage equality, and then lie that they weren't airing "advocacy-based" ads during on Super Bowl Sunday to boot? Someone ought to find out.
• California now has less wind power capacity than Iowa. I don't totally agree with the conclusions for why, but it's worth studying.
• CA-Sen: ZOMG, Chuck DeVore Twitters! And Facebooks! He raised $1,600 on Twitter! He's TOTALLY like Obama! (Is that 140 characters yet?)
By the way, that picture in the WSJ of DeVore checking his Blackberry like a strung-out meth addict should be atop all of Barbara Boxer's campaign literature for the next couple years.
This is at one of Debbie Cook's offices in Orange County:
You can help. There are still close to four hours until the polls close. I hear turnout is up in LA County and down a touch in Orange County. We can beat Dana Rohrabacher.
Make my election prediction come out right! This is from Debbie Cook's campaign, via email:
We have volunteers monitoring precincts across the district, and the results look encouraging. Our voters are showing up and Republicans are just not very excited by Rohrabacher.
We need you to help phone from home now, and until the polls close at 8:00.
We need to personally call every Democrat in the district before 7:30 and get them out to vote.
Can you help?
If you can, please email debbiecookforcongress-at-gmail-dot-com and we'll send you the simple instructions to call from home.
Joe Shaw
Communications Director
Debbie Cook for Congress
A Cook victory would be the biggest ideological shift in the entire House of Representatives. She is a Better Democrat who needs your help. Stay for Change and give Debbie Cook a hand. She will make you proud in Washington.
The OC Register has a strongly Libertarian bent and their political columnist, Stephen Greenhut, switched his registration this year from Republican to Libertarian after voting for Ron Paul in the Primaries. In today's paper, Greenhut gives his closing arguments. They focus on CA-46, Rohrabacher and Cook.
(Rohrabacher is openly talking about losing in a Democratic landslide. Go Debbie Cook! - promoted by David Dayen)
If the name Pete McCloskey sounds familiar, you may remember him as a 7-term Republican congressman from California. Paul Norton "Pete" McCloskey, Jr. comes from a long line of Republicans, going back to the 1850s. He served in the Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Marine Corps Reserves, and served our country in Korea.
So why's a former Republican congressman at a rally today endorsing Democrat Debbie Cook for Congress? Because he, like millions of Americans, knows that the Republican party has lost its way. Unlike today's breed, McCloskey has stood up for ethics and our country's future. He protected our environment by co-authoring the 1973 Endangered Species Act. He ran for President on an anti-Vietnam war platform. And he was the first representative to call for the impeachment of Nixon after Watergate. He truly put Country before party.
Gary DeLong represents the 3rd District of the Long Beach City Council, and he holds a monthly meeting - at taxpayer expense - with constituents. This month he abruptly decided to invite Dana Rohrabacher - his preferred candidate for Congress - to the meeting.
Walking a legal, ethical and political tightrope just before Election Day, Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong has suddenly invited the candidate he supports for congress-conservative incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher-to speak Thursday at DeLong's monthly lunchtime meeting with his Third District constituents.
Debbie Cook, the Huntington Beach mayor who is presenting Rohrabacher with his strongest challenge in his 20 years in the House of Representatives, had not heard about the event when contacted by The District Weekly late Monday night. "I was not invited," she said.
Long Beach Police Chief Anthony Batts had been scheduled for more than a month to address the Third District Neighborhoods meeting, but DeLong abruptly disinvited Batts so that Rohrabacher could appear.
DeLong has made three financial contributions to Rohrabacher's re-election campaign in the last 16 months. He donated $200 on June 27, $250 on Feb. 14 and $200 on June 16, 2007. Additionally, DeLong wrote a $1,000 check to the National Republican Congressional Committee on October 1.
But juggling the guest list at the Third District Neighborhoods meeting may constitute DeLong's most-valuable gift to Rohrabacher, providing the congressman with a late-in-the-campaign appearance before some of Long Beach's most-affluent and influential residents.
Hilariously, A DeLong spinner explains that the city staffers for the event are going on their lunch hour and the invites weren't sent on city time, so everything's above board. Oh, and where's it being held?
THE LONG BEACH YACHT CLUB. Perfect setting for a Yacht Party get-together.
What's most notable about this is that Rohrabacher is showing up in Long Beach at all. I'd be surprised if he knows where it is. Rohrabacher usually runs up the score in the Orange County strongholds. This year, he has to search for votes everywhere.
...oh yeah, if you want more of an incentive, Dana strongly supports Prop. 8. He says that we do not need to change the definition of marriage in order to "make a small number of people comfortable with themselves".
• CA-04: Tom McClintock is bringing out the big guns to help his cash-strapped campaign - Ron Paul is all in!
Paul, the libertarian-Republican congressman from Texas who raised more than $34 million for his presidential race, sent out an e-mail last week urging his massive donor base to contribute to McClintock.
"Tom McClintock is one of the most promising warriors in the fight against big government we have seen in a long time, and the special interests and big bankers know it. ... You have stood with me as....
...I campaigned for the Presidency to return our federal government to its proper role. Will you help me bring a reliable ally to Congress?"
This brings up some interesting questions. Does Tom McClintock think we should withdraw from Iraq and dozens of other military bases around the world? Does he believe in abolishing the Federal Reserve? The coinage of free silver?
• CA-45: New voter registration statistics have not been released by the Secretary of State's office, but I think they will show good news for Democrats across the state. One statistic that is measurable is the early voting number, and in CA-45, it's good news for Julie Bornstein.
Democrats have significantly narrowed the early voting gap in the 45th Congressional District, an encouraging sign for challenger Julie Bornstein in her battle to unseat Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), according to Bornstein campaign manager Walter Ludwig.
In both 2004 and 2006, registered Republicans accounted for about 54 percent of early voters, compared with just 34 percent for Democrats. Mack, now a four-term incumbent, cruised to re-election both years by more than 20 points.
This year, early voting is much more evenly split. The latest numbers from the Riverside County Registrar of Voters show that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by just five percent among early voters.
It's like the entire Republican machine all collapsed at once. They used to be MASTERS at getting absentee votes out. This year, there's either no such effort, or it's being matched by Democrats. CA-45 is under the radar, but these numbers suggest that it shouldn't be.
• CA-46: At the Great Orange Satan, Devilstower has a great piece that could start a new meme about Debbie Cook - the anti-Palin.
Suppose there was a candidate who was as bright and as capable as Sarah Palin is confused and incompetent.
Someone who had a record of working with environmental groups, and who had a real understanding of the threat posed by our dependence on fossil fuels. Someone with a degree in earth science and the long experience to make the claim of being a genuine energy expert.
Someone who not only knew science, but also had a law degree, and was a graduate of the leadership program at the Kennedy School of Government. Someone who has held positions of honor in state and national commissions. Someone who was well respected for both her intellect and her passion.
Suppose there was a candidate who had been mayor of, not a tiny town, but a medium-sized city. And suppose she took that position as a Democrat in the midst of a heavily Republican district.
Suppose there was someone who was everything that Sarah Palin is not.
• AD-78: Bill Cavala, who worked the last close race in this district, took a peek at some new registration numbers which show a real advantage for Marty Block:
This year the new registration 'close' figures show the Democrats with 101, 131 registrants, an increase of about 4100 from the last Presidential year. DTS registrations are 49,855, an increase of about 5800 from 2004. Most remarkably, however, Republican registration has fallen by almost 8000 - from 82,615 four years ago to 74,700 today.
This means the net change is Dems up 4100 and Reps down 8000 or 12,100 in favor of the Democrat over 2004.
Forget the increase in DTS registrations - which vote more Democratic than Republican in San Diego. Starting out down 12,000 in a seat where they won by 2000 with an incumbent - it's open this year - puts the Republican candidate squarely behind the 8 ball.
Just one of the many Assembly races where this is so.
Here's some tidbits from the campaign trail with 12 days out:
• CA-03: Bill Durston and Dan Lungren debated last night, and it was a predictable affair, says Randy Bayne:
Nothing new, no fireworks, no knockout punch, no excitement of any kind was reported by either MyMotherLode.com or the Stockton Record. Just what we already know - Durston wants us out of Iraq, doesn't like No Child Left Behind, and thinks the bailout is the wrong solution. Lungren supports the occupation, favors No Child Left Behind, and voted for the bailout.
If you're looking for change from eight years of down the toilet policy, and you don't want to continue flushing our future down the crapper - vote for Bill Durston.
If the registration stats cited by anecdotal reports are at all accurate, we're going to be very close to registration parity in this seat by Election Day. Lungren may be acting positive in public, but inside the campaign they must be terrified. They probably didn't expect Durston to run a credible campaign.
"Lincoln asked, 'If you call a tail a leg, how many legs has a dog? The answer is four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it one,'" McClintock said in a statement. "And calling a homosexual partnership a marriage doesn't make it one."
I'm pretty sure that means nothing at all, but California's Alan Keyes has had to distance himself from the comment. Meanwhile his much bigger problem is lacking the funds to run a proper campaign. He's now taken to relying on cheap robocalls, and Charlie Brown has immediately called on him to stop. Dirty trick robocalls that appeared to be coming from the Brown campaign were a major factor in John Doolittle's narrow re-election in 2006.
• CA-46: I didn't get a chance to post Debbie Cook's amazing closing statement at Tuesday's debate. Here it is.
The OC Register has a story on this race today. These "Challenger hopes to upset incumbent" stories have a familiar feel to them - the pose of surprise that the race is competitive, the quote from the shallow CW fountain like Allen Hoffenblum explaining why the incumbent is probably still safe, and the overall sense of shock, which would be natural if you weren't paying attention for the last 18 months, like, um, us.
• Assembly & Senate: Art Torres and Ron Nehring had a debate yesterday, and I think Torres needed to be prepped a little better. He claimed that Democrats could grab a 2/3 majority in the legislature but then couldn't come up with a simple list of what seats are in play. He should be reading more Calitics. Nehring replied with a lot of bunk and a little truth.
None of that adds up to 54 and 27, of course, and Nehring said Torres' boast "just doesn't pencil out."
He noted that Democratic efforts to oust Sen. Jeff Denham via recall failed miserably this year and the party ended up with no opponent to challenge Sen. Abel Maldonado in Santa Maria, a district believed to be winnable by a Democrat.
On the Assembly side, Nehring said, Republicans "have a great shot at holding on to" the 15th and "have a number of strategic advantages in the 78th (because) the Democrats have nominated the most liberal candidate (Marty Block) they possibly could."
In the 80th, the Democratic candidate (Manuel Perez) "is getting hammered on ... social issues which are important to many people in the Latino community," Nehring said.
"I don't know how can you be serious about trying to have a two-thirds vote in the Legislature," Nehring told Torres, "when you blow so many of these opportunities."
I'll go bottom to top on this. Manuel Perez is going to CRUSH Gary Jeandron, and if anyone's being hammered, it's the Republicans. The IE money is pretty one-sided in the state. Between that and the registration gains, it'll take more than just spin to dig your party out of its self-created hole, Mr. Nehring.
However, on one point I will agree with you. The Denham recall and Maldonado disaster have indeed stopped the potential forward momentum in the Senate. Of course, Torres couldn't say the plain truth - that Don Perata is among the worst leaders in recent Democratic Party history, and has completely set back the state in major ways by his blunders. He is an embarrassment.
So Debbie Cook and Dana Rohrabacher debated yesterday afternoon. I could write 1000 words about it, but I could also just provide you with this picture, which says it all:
As in, "I can't believe I actually have to run for my seat."
But if you want to know about the substance, Todd Beeton, who was there, has a writeup.
But even though crazy Dana is always likely to say some crazy shit, and he did, what I took away from the debate most of all was how unabashedly progressive Debbie Cook is and how lucky we would be to have her in Congress. This is a fairly red (albeit getting bluer every day) district, one where you might expect the Democratic challenger to moderate her views for the electorate. Nope, not Debbie. I'll write about the debate more later, hopefully with video, but here are just three of the issues where Debbie shined today:
• On global warming, Cook, who is an energy expert, in response to Rohrabacher's global warming denier nonsense, asserted "The debate is over. I can't get into a discussion over climate change, to me it's just a fact, we need to move on to solving our oil depletion problems."
• On Proposition 8: "I strongly oppose Proposition 8, I am in favor of full marriage equality."
• And on healthcare reform, Cook advocated for a single-payer Medicare for all model. "Health care is a right every American should enjoy."
Yes, Crazy Dana denied global warming. Again. Not sure if he attributed it to dinosaur flatulence this time. But here's the actual discussion:
Rohrabacher went on to accuse those "who claim that humankind is changing the climate," including Cook and his other opponents, of fear mongering.
"[They are] trying to stampede us into policies that will take us towards technologies that just deal with carbon dioxide and have nothing to do with personal health," Rohrabacher said.
Cook, who led Huntington Beach in joining the U.S. Mayor's Agreement on Global Warming, dismissed Rohrabacher's claims, stating that the scientific debate over climate change had ended.
"Debating climate change is just a distraction from the real work that we all need to do," Cook said. "Humans are overtaking the ability of the planet to sustain itself. Now, we need to move toward a green future because that's the only thing that can save us."
Apparently, Rohrabacher's plan was to relate everything back to illegal immigration and the Wall Street bailout package, which he would have replaced with capital gains tax cuts and more deregulation, so I'm not seeing Mr. Populism in there.
Cook stayed on message and did not take the bait. Here was her explanation.
After the debate, Cook explained why she refused to go after the incumbent.
"It's not my style," she said. "You don't want to make the same mistake that the Republicans have made with McCain in going negative, negative, negative. I think it's quite apparent that he's done nothing for this district in 20 years. And if people don't understand that, me telling them isn't going to change anything."
"He's an a**," Cook continued. "I can't respond to him. He's a liar."
Yes, that Donald Segretti. The head of the "dirty tricks" division of the Nixon campaign, the guy who stole stationery from Ed Muskie and wrote all kinds of lies about possible Nixon opponents in 1972, alleging Scoop Jackson had an illegitimate child and Hubert Humphrey was guilty of sexual misconduct and Muskie had insulted Franch-Canadians. By the way, Segretti was a co-chair of John McCain's Presidential campaign in 2000. And he was Karl Rove's mentor in ratfucking.
Donald Segretti offered J. Timothy Gratz $100.00 per month, plus expenses, to co-ordinate these projects. Gratz agreed to work on the project and he was given an advance payment of $50.00. Gratz later told Anthony Ulasewicz that "although the whole incident seemed strange" he agreed to help "as most of the ideas he suggested seemed like they were worth doing anyway". However, Gratz claimed he told Karl Rove, Chairman of the College Republican National Committee, about this dirty tricks campaign. We now know that Rove himself was part of Segretti's campaign. In fact, he probably played a leading role in this dirty tricks operation. Rove had become friends with CIA asset, Robert F. Bennett in 1968. According to one report, Bennett became a "mentor of Rove's".
In 1970, Karl Rove used a false identity to enter the campaign office of Democrat Alan J. Dixon, who was running for Illinois State Treasurer, and stole 1000 sheets of paper with campaign letterhead. Rove then printed fake campaign rally fliers promising "free beer, free food, girls and a good time for nothing," and distributed them at rock concerts and homeless shelters, with the effect of disrupting Dixon's rally.
Nice company that Rohrabacher attracts.
Donate to Debbie Cook: Having the money to get her message out is all that stands between her and victory.
Do you live in a safe Democratic Congressional district? If so, please join me and "Adopt-A-Candidate" for the final two week stretch of campaign season.
How do you "adopt-a-candidate"? It's easy.
* Find a worthy Democratic congressional candidate in your state, or in a region you care about, who has potential to beat their opponent.
* Contribute to the candidate's campaign, as though they were representing you.
* Promote your adopted candidate to anyone you know in that district, and write diaries and posts about them on blogs encouraging others to contribute to the candidate too.
If you're in Orange County Tuesday morning, please come to the one and only debate between Debbie Cook and Dana Rohrabacher. (The Green candidate and the Libertarian candidate will also be there.)
With momentum going her way, Debbie Cook needs you to come and cheer her on. Also to bring your questions! The eight questions the candidates will answer will come from audience members.
Here are the details:
Tuesday,
October 21, 11:15 am - 1:15 pm
Orange Coast College
2701 Fairview Road
Costa Mesa, CA 92628
Robert B Moore Theatre
Call for more information: 714-432-5796.
Dana Rohrabacher refused to debate earlier before the absentee ballots went out. He refused a debate offer from Ner-Tamid synagogue in Rancho Palos Verdes. He also refused to appear on Inside OC on KOCE TV alongside Mayor Cook.
There was a lot of excitement in the IAM (Int'l Assoc. of Machinists) union hall this morning in Huntington Beach, where DFA's Jim Dean and a host of local officials testified to the worthiness and strength of Debbie Cook, the Democratic candidate in CA-46, seeking to retire certified nutjob Dana Rohrabacher in Congress. But the best reaction was for the candidate herself, who gave a straight-shooting, no B.S. speech that made clear the stakes in this election.
"Do-Nothing Dana has been in Congress for 20 years and hasn't done a thing," Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, said to a pancake breakfast of around 120 volunteers who were ready to precinct walk for her. Referring to a claim from the campaign's latest ad, that Rohrabacher has sponsored a bill to protect the country from an asteroid, she said, "he needs to worry less about asteroids and more about planet Earth."
Cook has really matured as a speaker. She is great on her core issues - energy, the environment, and health care reform - but she's also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, and really foregrounds smart growth and development issues. State and local governments are so stressed by this financial crisis that it's incumbent upon us to send lawmakers to Washington who understand local concerns. I've heard again and again from local lawmakers in that district - and again today from Katrina Foley, running for re-election to City Council in Costa Mesa - that Rohrabacher is openly dismissive of any federal help for local governments, and refuses to work with his counterparts. At this point that's downright dangerous, creating choke points that will gut basic services and the smart policies we need - in mass transit, for example - to weather this economic downturn and create a 21st-century infrastructure.
You'll notice that Foley, the Costa Mesa city councilwoman, is a Democrat. Gus Ayer, the mayor of Fountain Valley, a Democrat. Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, Democrat. Orange County is changing, and those who ignore this reality and rest on their laurels, like Dana Rohrabacher, will live to regret it. "This is the first time he's had to get off his lazy a$% and campaign," she said. And he was slow to do it. He only spent $38,000 in the third quarter, but once internal Republican polls have shown the race to be a dead heat, he has swamped the district with money. He's got 4 positive ads on the air and a bunch of negative mailers attacking Debbie as an "extreme liberal" on various issues. If it's liberal to advocate for quality and affordable health care for all, as she has done in earning the endorsement of the California Nurses Association, because to ignore the crisis welcomes a "fiscal nightmare" that risks blowing a hole in the federal budget for good, so be it. If it's liberal to recognize that our current carbon-based economy is unsustainable, and that we must encourage policies and practices that move us off fossil fuels, there you are. If it's liberal to understand that smart density with mass transit can improve quality of life, the environment and the economy, well OK then.
The best part of the speech was when Cook talked about all the support she was getting throughout the district, and she mentioned that some people gave her their economic stimulus checks from the government. "To stimulate what? Buying more crap from China?" While a new stimulus is needed, rather than handing out money as a band-aid we need to direct that spending into something useful, something that will create jobs and get the economy moving again. We need to make things again in America.
After the speeches, the volunteers were sent out to walk precincts. CA-46 is a very long and narrow district that hugs the coast from Long Beach and the Palos Verdes Peninsula in L.A. County down to Costa Mesa in Orange County. Putting those blue areas up north into the district to neutralize their power is a big mistake in this wave election. As the Cook campaign finds new voters everywhere, turning out folks in Long Beach is part of the strategy. So I walked part of a precinct in Long Beach and got a very good response. Rohrabacher simply does not have a good reputation among anyone but the wingnuts, and his record on Social Security (pro-privatization), the military (voted against improving veteran's health care) and the environment (he's a global warming denier) is quite extreme. (There's also the dressing up in drag to solve the RFK murder and about a thousand other lunatic stories) I talked to people today who said "We're Republicans, but we don't like Dana." Very few people turned me away.
Cook's volunteer base is the edge in this election. But she also needs some financial help. The campaign estimates that they need $75,000 to meet their budget and get the last few targeted mailers into the field. Debbie is a Blue America candidate and a Better Democrat. You can donate to her on ActBlue. Please do - we have a real chance here. I'm hoping to get Debbie on Calitics Radio next week.
And if you're in the district, consider volunteering by visiting their website.
(that's what I'm talkin' about! - promoted by David Dayen)
UPDATE2 Monday midnight: Final numbers - $650 raised from 20 donors, and $300 matched by me, as promised.
UPDATE Monday 11:15pm: So far $625 raised, and I've hit my limit of $250 in donation matches (actually, I've gone a little beyond it). I'm looking for one more donor before midnight of $5 or more. That will bring me to an even $300.
This will be a short diary - my message is pretty clear.
* Debbie Cook is a great candidate
* Dana Rohrabacher is a bum
* If you give to Debbie here by tomorrow (Monday) midnight
* I'll match your donation.
* Get bigger bang for your progressive donation - give to Debbie now.
• A KPIX poll shows Jerry McNerney cruising in CA-11, up 52-41 over Dean Andal. What a golden boy. The D-Trip needs to bug out of this race and put the resources where they're needed, like CA-03, CA-46, CA-50 and CA-26.
• Alyson Huber received the endorsement of the Sacramento Bee in her AD-10 race. In other newspaper endorsements, the LA Times went with some guy named Barack Obama for President. This is their first endorsement in a general election in 30 years.
• The OC toll road agency, which has been pushing the San Onofre State Beach road for years because it would provide such an economic boost, now wants a billion dollar federal bailout because commuters are using their roads less. Roads are costly and no longer profitable. Transit, yes; more roads, no.
• Here's an interesting read from Amanda Marcotte on Prop. 4 and the new rhetoric taken up by the anti-choice forces.
• A reminder: Jim Dean will be in Southern California Sunday appearing with the campaigns of Debbie Cook (CA-46) and Bill Hedrick (CA-44).
8:30 AM: Breakfast fundraiser for Debbie Cook for Congress, $25. At the International Association of Machinists Union Hall, 5402 Bolsa Avenue, Huntington Beach, California 92649.
10 AM: Precinct walking and rally also at the International Association of Machinists Union Hall. For more info, call the Cook campaign at 714-842-6358.
6 PM: Fundraiser for Bill Hedrick with Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, $75. At the Historic El Adobe de Capistrano Restaurant, 31891 Camino Capistrano, San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675. Please RSVP to Karen Hinks at 714-848-9395 or khinks-at-verizon-dot-net.
UPDATE by Brian: one more for you. Lane Hudson has an open letter to DiFi on HuffPo challenging her to campaign against Prop 8 in the context of the upcoming Harvey Milk movie. Check it out.
The Capitol Weekly reports, in an article about dimming GOP prospects, that Dana Rohrabacher is in a world of trouble.
The third contest is in the 46th Congressional District in Orange County, where incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher faces Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook.
According to GOP sources, internal polling shows the difference between Rohrabacher and Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, to be within the margin of error, although Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook. Hoffenblum believes Rohrabacher faces "possibly the strongest Democrat to run against him since the current district lines were drawn in 2001."
I don't think it's accurate to say that Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook. He only spent a paltry $38,000 in the third quarter, though that may be ramping up now. I don't think the NRCC is going to have a lot of money to help him either, though they're making noises about it.
The strapped National Republican Congressional Committee, which at the end of August had $14 million in the bank, compared with $54 million for the Democrats, last week took out an $8 million loan to fund races in the final days of the campaigns. With scant resources, the fight for dollars is intense.
GOP insiders believe some funds may flow to Rohrabacher in the 46th C.D., but that money for any of the others is problematic. Democrats declined to say whether Cook would get last-minute cash from national Democrats.
Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is a better Democrat. She supports the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, quality health care for every American, and a post-carbon economy with green energy pushing out the dirty fuels of the past. She would be an amazing legislator. This can be done. She needs your support. Donate here. I will be down in the district over the weekend to get a report.
Here's yet more evidence that the Dems are poised for huge gains in Congress: The Cook Report has released a new set of updated rankings on 25 House races -- and all 25 are shifts in the Dems' direction.
CA-03 Dan Lungren (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-04 OPEN, Doolittle (R) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) - Solid Republican to Lean Republican
That's right, Charlie Brown, Nick Leibham and Bill Durston are looking very impressive. And Charlie Cook is being very conservative with these picks. We have the momentum, now we have to go out there and pull it off.
General: I suspended the monthly ratings because it was ridiculously time-consuming and better to get the information out more timely, but in case you're wondering, here is my impression of the top targets in California for the Congressional races as we stand with 22 days out. My considered opinion is that no incumbent Democrat is in trouble, including Jerry McNerney. As for the Republican-held seats:
1) CA-04: Lean Dem. Charlie Brown has been ahead in multiple polls and actually has a ground game, unlike Tom McClintock.
2) CA-03: Tilt Repub. Bill Durston's poll showing the race as a dead heat raised a lot of eyebrows. Unfortunately people discovered this race too late, but by Election Day I'll bet that the registration numbers are virtually tied and there will not be an immediate call. The smart money for progressives wanting to impact a race should go to Dr. Durston against Dan Lungren.
3) CA-46: Tilt Repub. Debbie Cook is replicating the Loretta Sanchez strategy of ground mobilization that she used to defeat B-1 Bob Dornan. We'll see if she can pull it off against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher.
4) CA-26: Tilt Repub. Russ Warner has been doing a decent enough job and there's a bit of outside support, but David Dreier has a wall of money.
5) CA-45: Lean Repub. This race has also been under the radar, but the district is either #1 or #2 in the COUNTRY for foreclosures, and affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein can stand to benefit from movement toward Democratic solutions on the economy in her race against Mary Bono Mack.
6) CA-50: Lean Repub. This is the permanent tease district in California, and despite Nick Leibham's efforts to shake up the race, I'm not seeing Brian Bilbray taken down right now, especially because he's likely to whip up populist support in his base with his vote against the bailout.
7) CA-52: Likely Repub. It was always going to be an uphill battle for Mike Lumpkin in his race against Duncan Hunter's son running for Duncan Hunter's old seat. I'd like to see better signs here, but I'm coming up empty.
I rate everything else as Safe Republican at the moment. I'll do a legislative targeting in the next campaign update. Now, to the news (on the flip):
• CA-04: The most important debate evah is tonight! No, not that Biden-Palin thing, it's Calitics Match candidate Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock in Oroville. Meanwhile, the air war has begun in earnest. Brown is up with a 60-second ad featuring a local family as a third-party endorser, explaining their struggles to stay ahead in this economy and how Brown is the right choice. I think it'll play well (Brown has an American Jobs Plan which includes investments in infrastructure and green jobs, which is key to the needed reindustrialization of society). On the other hand, Tom McClintock has decided to use Grandpa Fred.
"The financial crisis our nation faces is complicated, and I don't think anybody's got all the answers," Thompson, a well-known actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee, says in the commercial. "But I'll tell you one thing. I'll feel a lot more confident with Tom McClintock working on it, rather than some amateur."
Shorter Grandpa Fred: "All this book-learnin' and financializin' is hard to figger. Pick the guy who's never voted Yes on a budget in his entire career."
• CA-11: If you want to know why Dean Andal isn't getting any traction in his race against Rep. Jerry McNerney, this quote says it all:
Elected in 2006, McNerney is in a better position for reelection than many expected. But he sits in a district that gave President Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, a sure sign that the freshman Democrat ought to be looking over his shoulder.
His Republican opponent, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, may not be in a position to capitalize, though. The Lodi News-Sentinel reported that an Andal spokesman took the curious position that "it would be inappropriate of Andal to comment on the bailout bill, because he is not in office."
Yes, it would be terrible to actually give your viewpoints on national issues during a political campaign.
• CA-46: You know that Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is gaining traction in her race against nutjob Dana Rohrabacher by this - Rohrabacher has gone negative. He's sent an attack mailer that takes a Cook comment about gas prices out of context and really goes to great lengths to greenwash himself. He mentions his sponsorship of a bill to completely eliminate environmental review for solar projects, which is irresponsible but which he is trying to cynically use as proof of his green energy bona fides. It also calls Cook an extremist liberal who opposes drilling.
What's hysterical is that Rohrabacher sent the mailer to everyone in the district but Democrats, meaning that Greens got it. And I'm told by the Cook campaign that they received numerous calls from Green Party members saying that they were voting for Debbie BECAUSE of the mailer!
According to a September 25, 2008, Pasadena Weekly article by Carl Kozlowski, Rohrabacher believes that the Los Angeles Police Department has for 40 years hidden the fact that Sirhan Sirhan, the lone man convicted of shooting Kennedy, worked as part of a "real conspiracy" of Arabs [...]
In early 2007--39 years after the killing and right around the time that he blamed global warming on dinosaur flatulence, Rohrabacher decided to solve his murder mystery for "the Kennedy family."
Anyone familiar with Rohrabacher knows this story is now headed for unadulterated, wacky bliss.
At some point, Sirhan sent Summer Reese, one of his lawyers, a letter telling her that "a Diana was coming to see him."
Reese told Kozlowski, "Sirhan didn't know it was the congressman because his visitor was presented as a woman."
Rohrabacher. Undercover. In drag. Using the name Diana?
Perhaps this sheds light on why ex-Congressman Bob Dornan (R-Garden Grove) liked to call Rohrabacher "a fruitcake."
I actually know Carl, maybe I'll track him down and interview him about this.
• AD-26: I've noticed a lot of Republicans afraid to debate this year. Here's another example.
Stretching from Turlock to Stocton, the 26th Assembly District is fairly even in voter registration and is a target on both party's lists. So why would one candidate take a pass on a critical opportunity to face his opponent and make his case to voters? That is the question being asked by Democratic candidate John Eisenhut who was at a League of Women Voters debate in Modesto Friday night. His Republican opponent, Bill Berryhill, had a "scheduling conflict."
In a conversation with Eisenhut the night after the debate he said that Berryhill didn't want to debate him. This in spite of Berryhill being quoted by the Modesto Bee saying,
"People deserve some dialogue and to know where we both stand."
• AD-30: Fran Florez runs against Sacramento in this solid new ad. Is she also running against her own son, State Sen. Dean Florez?
