I noticed this before Swing State Project codified it, but there were some stunning numbers in the Q1 Congressional fundraising reports that augur well for Democratic upsets in November.
We know that Charlie Brown is raising tons of money and has close to $600,000 cash on hand, and his challengers are spending all their money in a bruising primary race (Doug Ose has a million dollars in debts on his books). We know that three California challengers raised six figures in the first quarter (Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham) and have been consistently doing so. What's notable is the lack of fundraising prowess among key Republicans.
Dean Andal is supposed to be one of the top GOP challengers in the whole country. Yet he could only manage $90,000 in the first quarter, which considering how much effort the GOP is putting into his race is embarrassing.
More interesting to me are the incumbents. David Dreier raised $136,000, not all that much more than Russ Warner's $110,000. Dan Lungren raised around $100,000, not much more than Bill Durston's $75,000 (very respectable for his grassroots campaign). And then there are two in Orange County that are shocking. Dana Rohrabacher was OUTRAISED by Debbie Cook in CA-46: $47,000 to $39,000. And Cook didn't get a full quarter in because she didn't announce until late January. (On a similar note, Julie Bornstein was able to raise $29,000 in just a few weeks after her announcement). And in CA-42, Gary Miller was outraised by Ed Chau, a carpetbagger from Montebello, and if you add in Ron Shepston's total Miller was significantly outraised by his challengers.
That's quite incredible. Miller and Rohrabacher might be dismissing the effort against them, and they still have plenty of cash on hand. But as a symbol of support in the district, clearly Democrats have the momentum all over the state. We're going to be very competitive this cycle, and if one of these districts hits, the cash-poor NRCC and the pathetic fundraising prowess of these Republicans isn't going to save them.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
In recent days we've been talking about how incompetent individual Republican congressmen have been as guardians and stewards of public money. The current catastrophe on Wall Street flows directly out a GOP ideology of greed and selfishness that takes the laissez faire approach to such extremes that abuses, like the ones being exposed now, are positively invited. But that isn't the only financial scandal congressional Republicans are choking on. We've talked about the billions of dollars "missing" in the Iraq mess, missing meaning stolen by defense contractors who are kicking it back to their Republican patrons. With a policy of GOP obstructionism in full force, it will take Henry Waxman's Committee on Oversight and Government Reform years to sort that all out. But still another Republican financial mess is one they actually do want to get to the bottom of-- and pronto.
Congressional Democrats are now trying to move legislation that would overturn the EPA's anti-scientific decision which denied California a waiver to regulate their own tailpipe emissions. Arnold Schwarzenegger is suing the EPA. It seems that the only group of people who aren't on board with this policy are Republican members of Congress.
Most GOP members of the state's congressional delegation are siding with the Bush administration in trying to keep states from imposing stricter regulations on greenhouse gas emissions than the federal government. Without bipartisan support from the state's representatives, the bill's proponents say, the measure's prospects are dim.
"I don't support California thinking that it can act alone effectively," said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), noting that climate change is a problem that extends beyond state lines.
A House bill to allow California and other states to implement their own tailpipe regulations was introduced last week, with the support of 27 of the 33 California Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco. Only two of the 19 Republicans -- Rep. David Dreier of San Dimas, who is perhaps Schwarzenegger's closest ally in the delegation, and Rep. Mary Bono Mack of Palm Springs -- signed on as cosponsors.
In addition to Issa, John Campbell, Kevin McCarthy, George Radanovich, Devin Nunes and Wally Herger are quoted, all saying a variation of how global warming is a big problem and we have to have a unified solution. Of course, 18 other states are signing on to California's lawsuit, representing a majority of the population who actually wants to do something abut climate change.
I really think this has the potential of politically isolating the GOP. It's notable that Dreier and Bono Mack understand that their districts are becoming more purplish, and that they need to stay out in front of them. But the combination of hypocrisy among the state's rights crowd and being on the wrong side of popular opinion (most California Republicans favor granting the waiver) and scientific rationality could make for a powerful wedge. We know that people are finally starting to drive less. Utilities are starting to block production of any and all coal-fired power plants. And there's a growing recognition that this is a public health issue as much as it is an environmental issue. Those who are standing in the way of renewable projects, alternative energy solutions, and yes, government mandates to solve the problem are dinosaurs. At the Congressional level, I believe this vote will resonate in November.
Incidentally, if you want to see some of that post-partisan leadership in action, check it out:
Schwarzenegger spokesman Bill Maile said the governor supports the legislation. By allowing California to implement "the nation's toughest tailpipe regulations," he said, "it will help us achieve our aggressive goals to reduce greenhouse gases." But a number of California Republicans in Congress say that they have yet to hear from Schwarzenegger or his office.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.
CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH
CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH I was looking at Q3 numbers. Brown has raised $692,000, and has $483,000 CoH. Big numbers for a non-incumbent.
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH
There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!
CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH
Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.
CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH
Very encouraging.
Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.
DavidNYC on the Swing State Project found a listing of the 40 Repugnant-held Congressional seats targeted thus far by the DCCC. The seats include those for John Doolittle-to-Nothing, CA-04, David Dreier, gay in Palm Springs gay resorts and straight in the CA-26, and Brian Bilbray, CA-50.
Missing is the CA-45 where Mary Bono has been absentee-Congresswoman since dating Connie Mack, R-FL. Bono Mack is now thought to be leaning towards moving to FL and eventually running for Mack's seat when he runs against for Bill Nelson's, D-FL, U.S. Senate seat. This would allow the termed-out Bonnie Garcia, R-CA, Assemblywoman from the CA 80th Assembly District to run for U.S. Congress.
Here is DavidNYC's find:
Mon Dec 24, 2007 at 12:12 AM EST
The subscription-only Roll Call bagged an interview with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen last week. Van Hollen explained that the D-Trip has plans (at least, as of now) to target forty Republican-held seats. Frustratingly, Roll Call didn't reproduce the list online, but did include it in their print edition. Fortunately, were able to snag it from p. 15 of the PDF version on their website (note: this link will probably not point to the proper issue as of Jan. 7th, 2008):
This is big news. Roll Call's articles require subscription, but I'll link to DKos diarist (and friend of Calitics) RandySF's description. Basically Chris Van Hollen is announcing that the DCCC, the campaign arm for House Democrats, will be targeting 40 seats to start in the 2008 election, 31 of them held by Republican incumbents and 9 of them open seats. The amazing thing is that 3 of those seats are here in California. On the top 40 list for the D-Trip are:
What this means is that the DCCC will support financially challengers to those seats, and encourage Democratic donors to do the same. Now, the D-Trip has a mixed record in getting involved in Congressional races. In 2006 some of the seats they contested most strongly were lost at the expense of some strong progressive challengers who were beat by a mere handful of votes, and could have used the money. But looking at the list, I perceive a shift from Rahm Emanuel's style to Chris Van Hollen. I think Van Hollen is rewarding strong candidates who have a chance to win. Netroots-endorsed candidates like Linda Stender, Darcy Burner, Gary Trauner, Dan Maffei, Eric Massa and Larry Kissell are on the list. So I am hopeful that this is not the case of a push to get a bunch of Bush Dogs into office.
What this also shows is the faith in California to have some competitive targets in 2008. The partisan gerrymander is supposed to negate any attempt at flipping seats out here, but times have changed. John Doolittle is so ethically compromised that his idea of good news these days is believing his case will be delayed by a year while they fight a subpoena in the courts. David Dreier is completely out of touch with his district, and Brian Bilbray doesn't even live there. So we will see some opportunities in California in 2008. And this is great news for Charlie Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham, as they have been validated as national players. I hope that they remain true to their beliefs and run these races their way, however, and not the way the national consultants tell them.
Not to toot my own horn, but these have consistently been the top three pickup opportunities in my Congressional roundups. :)
Xposted from mydesert.com, the online edition of The Desert Sun
My, my, my. To hear the recent rightwing debate on CNN, you would think that God, Guns, and Gays were the most pressing issues facing the United States of America. No, not Iraq, not the faltering economy, not the banking industry, not Iran, not the failing regime in Pakistan, not AIDS and low quality healthcare, not the despoiled environment, not the under-funded schools. No, it's the godless liberals, the ones threatening to disarm NRA-loving Americans and to inculcate America with the 'Gay Agenda.'
You have to wonder why the ongoing obsessions in the theofascist Repugnant party. Traditionally, groups create external enemies in order to unify the group in question. Gays are examples of the ongoing attempts of the Repugnant Party to create external villains in order to coalesce the followers of their cult (remember their previous focus on the insidious Soviet Union, then Russia, then Iraq, then North Korea, then Iran, etc?). Of course you also have to wonder in the case of the right wing party about their seemingly constant obsession with gays. Freud would have a field day. Repressed sexuality. Displaced anxiety. Denial. Unresolved sexual conflicts.
This we see when any right wing ideologue is revealed to have been a closeted self-loathing homophobic gay himself/herself. Reference the former-Rev. Ted Haggard, former-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL), former-Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ), Rep. David Dreier (R-CA), Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), former-mayor of Spokane Jim West (R), former-State Senator and cross-dresser, Richard Curtis (R-WA), Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL), Ken Mehlman (former RNC chairman), Jeff Gannon (formerly of the Washington Press Corps and credentialed by Whitehouse Press Secretary), Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), Ralph Reed (founder of the so-called Christian Coalition), and so many more. (refer to www.blogactive.com).
Then, of course in an altogether different category, you have the Green Bay, WI/Brown County Republican Chairman Donald Fleischman who opted for pedophilia as an expression of his repressed sexual urges. While the right wing might characteriz Fleischman's crime as 'gay,' we know that this is an abuse of power rather than an expression of sexuality. In this category, I would also include the pedophilia-prone clergy and priests who commit rightwing principles.
And of course, guns have always been a symbol of the phallus. Makes one wonder though about the relationship in the theofascist mind of God, guns, and gays. JMHO.
Russ Warner is hammering David Dreier over his SCHIP vote. This is a great ad:
Warner is using the vote as a symbol for how out of touch Dreier has become over his 28 years serving conservative ideological masters instead of his constituents. The other thing that strikes me is the quality of the ad, and that he's releasing it on the Web. At 44 seconds it takes its time to explain the issue in a bit more detail (though I'm sure it can be cut down into a :30 television spot), yet it plays very much as something that would be broadcast.
I kind of wish there was some Democratic branding in the spot, but overall it's very good.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Political pressure on GOP Rep. John Doolittle grew Wednesday as a fellow California House Republican said it would be best if Doolittle didn't run for re-election.
GOP Rep. John Campbell of Orange County became the first House member to say publicly Wednesday what other lawmakers and aides are saying privately - that Doolittle should step aside and not run for re-election.
"I am very concerned about the situation in that district and our ability to comfortably hold what is a safe Republican district," Campbell said in an interview with The Associated Press.
"Certainly the polling shows that he's in a difficult position and I do think it would be best if he didn't seek re-election," Campbell said.
Here's the good news: Doolittle's response.
Doolittle was defiant in a written statement responding to Campbell's comments.
"I hope John Campbell never has to experience what Julie and I have been going through the past 3 and a quarter years," he said. "If he ever does, he will truly understand how frustrating it can be for people to attack your honor and integrity."
And the chair of the Republican delegation in California, himself a target in 2008, came running to Doolittle's aid:
The head of the California Republican House delegation, Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas, offered words of support Wednesday.
"It's up to John Doolittle and John Doolittle says he's running for re-election," Dreier said. "And obviously he's got lots of challenges with which he's trying to deal, but he's a good, hardworking member and we'll see what happens. It's very early on."
Expect "Dreier and Doolittle: Perfect Together" to come up in CA-26 messaging.
I love "Republicans in disarray" stories, don't you?
If you go check out the 3rd quarter numbers, you'll see an interesting recent change in David Dreier's behavior. Here are the net contributions (after refunds) for David Dreier by quarter:
Q1: $20.275.00
Q2: $39,082.84
Q3: $261,975.00
This last quarter's take is more than one and a half times the entire amount he raised in the 2006 cycle -- as Chair of Rules. He should be worried, Russ Warner has $193,554.60 Cash on Hand.
Another thing the Governor is missing while jetting to China is the major showdown over S-CHIP, with California signed on to an 8-state lawsuit against the federal government.
Several states said Monday they would challenge the Bush administration in federal court over its new rules that block the expansion of a health insurance program for children from low-income families.
Arizona, California, Illinois, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Washington are joining in the litigation, either as plaintiffs or by filing supporting briefs.
The states object to rules issued by the Bush administration in August that make it harder for them to provide coverage to children in middle-income families by limiting the total income of families who participate.
The states accuse the administration of overstepping the federal government's authority to set income limits for participants in the State Children's Health Insurance Program.
It's amazing that, in this day and age, states have to sue the government so they can provide health insurance to needy children. But this case puts extra pressure on the Bush Administration to pass the bipartisan bill expanding S-CHIP, which is politically popular. It also puts pressure on Republican House members, who are all that's standing in the way from this bill becoming law through a veto override. Smart Democratic challengers are already making this a defining issue in next year's elections. The DCCC is targeting House members with radio ads, and today CA-26's Russ Warner will hold a rally at David Dreier's San Dimas office, to protest his vote against S-CHIP. 850,000 children in California alone will be negatively impacted by this vote, so it's a huge issue here. Details for the rally on the flip.
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Right before heading off to our Calitics Q3 Quarterly tonight, Russ Warner sent off this press release about David Dreier's vote against children's health:
David Dreier stood with George Bush and Big Tobacco and voted against reauthorizing the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). As a result of this vote, hundreds of thousands of California families will likely lose health insurance for their children in the coming months.
"At a time when we are spending $450 billion on the war in Iraq, David Dreier's unwillingness to invest in California's kids shows how out of touch he is with the priorities and concerns of people in the 26th district," said Russ Warner, Democratic candidate for Congress in the 26th district.
Currently 850,000 children in California receive health care coverage through the SCHIP program in California, called Healthy Families. Dreier voted along party lines against the reauthorization of the program and a proposed expansion that could have extended health care coverage to another 650,000 children in California currently without health insurance.
David Dreier said this legislation, which is supported by groups such as AARP, the American Medical Association, and Easter Seals - is an "expansion of the welfare state."
"After 27 years in Congress, all David Dreier has to offer are outrageous comments and unwavering support for George Bush's failed policies," said Warner.
"The money invested in covering children's health today will save California money tomorrow, in identifying and catching illnesses earlier and in eliminating unnecessary emergency room visits."
"The people of the 26th district are ready for a representative who will fight for their interests - not the interests of George Bush and Big Tobacco," continued Warner.
Me likey the rapid response. This will be a defining issue in a lot of campaigns next year.
I've been late on my Congressional roundup for September; I'll probably get it up by the end of the week. But I did want to wait and see which way House Republicans would vote on expanding SCHIP, a priority for the state and for the Governor. Voting to leave sick children out in the cold is almost impossibly cruel, and will get the great big spotlight it deserves in 2008. So how did they vote?
Mary Bono voted yes. That's it. Every single other California House Republican voted to deny poor children health insurance. John Doolittle, no. Jerry Lewis, no. Ken Calvert, no. Gary Miller, no. Brian Bilbray, no. And David Dreier, not only no, but here's a quote:
"It dramatically expands the welfare state," said Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif.
I think Russ Warner just got the ammo he needed. Somehow Republicans think this vote won't boomerang back on them.
Because a veto is expected, much of the attention Tuesday was on the political fallout. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chairman of the Republican congressional campaign committee, said Republicans will support a less costly compromise. "I don't think it will be a decisive bill in the 2008 elections," he said.
They're wrong. And even though I believe that the Democratic majority is committed enough to this program that they will keep voting on it until they get a veto-proof majority (they're 24 votes away as it is), this vote will not be forgotten. The ads will be written. And the price will be paid.
Last night I spent a couple hours in the hills above Hollywood with bloggers and supporters at a fundraiser for Russ Warner. Many of you know that Warner's district in CA-26, held by Bush rubber stamp David Dreier, offers the best chance in Southern California to flip a Congressional seat in 2008. Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake was there, and she offers this report:
Russ had a really moving tale to tell about his son Greg who served 17 months in Iraq, and how he was motivated to run as a result of his experiences there. Greg is now in West Point.
Says Russ:
"By the end of 2007, 1.3 billion dollars will have been spent on the war just from my district, CA-26 alone - which is enough to provide medical insurance for 150,000 children. It's time that we end this war and bring the money home to be used for our children and the future of this country."
Russ indicates that he would not vote for the $50 billion supplemental that Bush is now asking for, and believes that the same thing is happening to the United States that happened to the Soviet Union when it went into Afghanistan - we're being bled dry by Bush and Dreier's ill-conceived war.
Blue America is trying to build a surge of support for Warner leading into the end of the third quarter. Warner is within a couple thousand dollars of $100,000 raised on ActBlue.
Brad Blog was all over it yesterday as Susan Davis (CA-53) sought to add an amendment to Rush Holt's Election Reform Bill that would ban all DRE (Direct Recording Electronic) voting machines. The bill finished the day still in committee, so feel free to make some calls today urging support of the amendment. Target members of the Rules Committee to make sure it gets attached, and (to echo the call from BradBlog) let your own representative know they should insist on a DRE ban before voting for the bill. BradBlog also notes that the amendment has been endorsed by MoveOn, Verified Voting and VoteTrustUSA.
Davis' office told BradBlog that the amendment was relying on Leadership and the Rules Committee allowing it. I think you've all met Nancy Pelosi already, you know where to find her. Louise Slaughter chairs the committee, and California members are Democrats Doris Matsui and Dennis Cardoza, and Republican David Dreier who serves as the ranking minority member of the committee. Leverage galore Californians.
The Larry Craig scandal is resonating with voters at an astonishing level. IOKIYAR works in all but one situation and the question everyone is asking: Is David Dreier next?
Russ indicates that he would not vote for the $50 billion supplemental that Bush is now asking for, and believes that the same thing is happening to the United States that happened to the Soviet Union when it went into Afghanistan - we're being bled dry by Bush and Dreier's ill-conceived war.