Well, the votes are in, the matchups are set, and so I thought it was time for a baseline roundup of where I think the California House races stand as of now. The main pieces of information that are causing me to reset my expectations are the primary results, the April 1-May 15 fundraising numbers and the new registration numbers from the Secretary of State's office. You can track all three yourself:
Wow, winning his barely-contested primary Tuesday must have given Dana Rohrabacher the confidence to start spewing wacky stuff again. I had started to believe that he was behaving better because of his serious challenge from Debbie Cook.
Dana Rohrabacher's been saying stuff like this for years, only now he has an opponent who's going to call him on it.
Today, the House Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight held a hearing on detainee treatment at Guantanamo Bay, focusing on a recent FBI inspector general (IG) report documenting abusive practices at the facility. The report describes, among other things, a "war crimes file" created by FBI agents concerned about the interrogation tactics they witnessed at Guantanamo.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), however, sees nothing wrong with the accounts of abuse. While questioning IG Glenn Fine today, Rohrabacher insisted the report documented nothing more than "fraternity boy pranks and hazing pranks," and hardly constituted torture:
ROHRABACHER: They seem like more like pranks, hazing pranks from some fraternity than some well-thought-out policy of how do you torture someone and get information from them. [...]
I will have to tell you, when most people hear the word "torture," which has been bandied around here, I don't believe that they think of it as holding a growling dog near somebody but not the growling dog - you know, it's one thing to have the growling dog eating someone's leg or arm versus - which is absolute torture. It's another thing to have a growling dog around, or putting panties on someone's head, or discussing - telling him he had repressed homosexual tendencies in his presence. I mean, I'm sorry, these are acts of humiliation.
He apparently used the phrase "panties on someone's head" 13 times in 8 minutes.
I could go on and on about how interrogation practices at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo violate Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions, which ban "outrages upon personal dignity," or the UN Convention Against Torture, or sundry torture statutes in this country, and how (as DoJ Inspector Glenn Fine said today) such tactics are not only criminal but incredibly ineffective in gathering intelligence, and how as the world's most powerful nation we have an obligation to uphold the highest standards of human rights lest the world sink to our level, but fortunately, I don't have to say all that this year, because Democratic nominee Debbie Cook is on the case. Here's the statement her campaign emailed me:
"At a time when we need a serious discussion and thorough review of the allegations of torture coming out of Guantanamo Bay, Congressman Rohrabacher has used his position of trust to make jokes and liken the interrogations to nothing more than a frat party.
We need a representative in Congress who will approach the serious issues facing our country with decorum and common sense, instead of cracking jokes. Torture is not to be taken lightly especially when the prestige and moral authority of the United States government is at stake.
The voters of the 46th district deserve a Member of Congress who works hard, has a good grasp of the issues before them and who is taken seriously by their colleagues. That's how you get things done in Congress."
Rohrabacher is an embarrassment, and Debbie Cook is going to give the people of the 46th District a real alternative this year.
This afternoon, Chris Bowers has an excellent piece: Once In A Generation Is Now. It argues that this election is the opportunity to go all in and make dramatic changes throughout this country. This is our chance to change the tone of discourse. This is our chance to break the GOP machine. And most importantly, this is our chance to get a strong progressive majority to DC that can pass legislation that's been waiting for 30 or more years. Now.
So I can't help but look around California for signs that all the chips are being pushed to the center. Dave noted earlier that there could, on the outer edge, as many as nine California seats in play this year, and certainly recent Democratic successes in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi suggest that the ability to win anywhere is now a reality.
While every district is unique, projections are rough at best, and anything can happen between now and November, the odds are slim of there being a better time to go for broke in the forseeable future. So I look around California and I see that between the 34 Democratic incumbents in California's congressional delegation, there's more than $14.6 million cash on hand. Out of those 34, only one (Jerry McNerney) is facing a serious challenge, freeing up a great deal of time and money to invest in races around the state.
SwingStateProject beat me to the punch on yet another example of Dana Rohrabacher being awful. Discussing his reelection bid with a Long Beach newspaper, he said of challenger Debbie Cook:
"She's a very attractive person, physically, and has a title, so I'm taking it seriously."
Translation: "Isn't it cute that a woman would try to challenge me."
Even in a district so oddly willing to being represented by an utter nutjob, it's hard to believe that such naked sexism directed at a popular mayor will fly. Throw in his commentary about "steely-eyed radicals" pushing some hidden agenda beneath the notion of man-made climate change, and it's the whole Crazy Dana package.
It's tough to really guess what the tipping point of mean-spirited insanity might be for Rohrabacher, but now that he's getting pushed, perhaps the process will at least speed up a bit.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
I noticed this before Swing State Project codified it, but there were some stunning numbers in the Q1 Congressional fundraising reports that augur well for Democratic upsets in November.
We know that Charlie Brown is raising tons of money and has close to $600,000 cash on hand, and his challengers are spending all their money in a bruising primary race (Doug Ose has a million dollars in debts on his books). We know that three California challengers raised six figures in the first quarter (Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham) and have been consistently doing so. What's notable is the lack of fundraising prowess among key Republicans.
Dean Andal is supposed to be one of the top GOP challengers in the whole country. Yet he could only manage $90,000 in the first quarter, which considering how much effort the GOP is putting into his race is embarrassing.
More interesting to me are the incumbents. David Dreier raised $136,000, not all that much more than Russ Warner's $110,000. Dan Lungren raised around $100,000, not much more than Bill Durston's $75,000 (very respectable for his grassroots campaign). And then there are two in Orange County that are shocking. Dana Rohrabacher was OUTRAISED by Debbie Cook in CA-46: $47,000 to $39,000. And Cook didn't get a full quarter in because she didn't announce until late January. (On a similar note, Julie Bornstein was able to raise $29,000 in just a few weeks after her announcement). And in CA-42, Gary Miller was outraised by Ed Chau, a carpetbagger from Montebello, and if you add in Ron Shepston's total Miller was significantly outraised by his challengers.
That's quite incredible. Miller and Rohrabacher might be dismissing the effort against them, and they still have plenty of cash on hand. But as a symbol of support in the district, clearly Democrats have the momentum all over the state. We're going to be very competitive this cycle, and if one of these districts hits, the cash-poor NRCC and the pathetic fundraising prowess of these Republicans isn't going to save them.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
He brings in the king of the ratfuckers, Mike Schroeder, the Dark Lord of the Orange County Republican party to sue the candidate, call her a scofflaw attorney, and tie up time, resources, and money with bogus charges.
Debbie Cook is the Mayor of Huntington Beach, and a formidable grassroots progressive who has the ability to challenge one of the vilest Congressmen in a Republican district (PVI: R+6). Debbie's been winning battles against the local slimeballs since 1989, when she started a grassroots battle against corrupt out-of-touch developers intent on developing public beaches and parks for profit. With a group of activists meeting in her living room, Debbie gathered 18,000 signatures to put an initiative on the ballot, then beat big money and slimy politics to get 75% of the vote. Only 29% of the voters in Huntington Beach are registered Democrats but Debbie wins by wide margins and is respected across partisan boundaries, recognized as a champion for energy conservation and environmental protection, a big deal in the district where Rohrabacher, an aggressive Global Warming denier, has consistently failed to lend a hand to popular local causes from groundwater replenishment (saving the local underground water supply from saltwater intrusion) and preserving the Bolsa Chica Wetlands to the dredging of Huntington Harbor and saving the bluffs on Pacific Coast Highway from erosion.
I'm surprised I haven't read anything about this on Calitics yet, so I thought I'd do my part to get the word out. The mayor of my own home city of Huntington Beach is mounting a challenge against Dana Rohrabacher.
We as Californians have the potential for a very exciting race in our own backyard this year. I won't waste my space telling you what you already know about Dana Rohrabacher, but you might not be as familiar with Debbie Cook. If so, expect that to change.
Debbie has been a city councilmember in our city for 7 years (the term limit is 8) and in that time has been a voice of reason in the sometimes-hostile environment of the OC. As such, she has forged good relationships with local leaders across party lines to help the region across municipal boundaries. She's been a strong and consistent advocate for the environment, but also for maintaining our local infrastructure. I've particularly been glad that someone has taken up the reigns of looking ahead to our energy future, and she serves on the board of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. (Take THAT, Halliburton!)
You can read more about her candidacy and biography at www.debbiecookforcongress.com. What you won't see stand out in text is the passion and commitment she brings to the office. But I hope to help change that over the coming months as I and others get the word out about this great candidate we have through video and in-person events.
If you've ever thought about giving money to get Dana Rohrabacher out of Washington, there really couldn't be a better time. Debbie is the first elected official to challenge him in years. And at this point in the game, your donation will go a long way. The campaign is trying to ramp up quickly. Even better, if you got to the ActBlue fundraising pages, former mayor Connie Boardman is matching all donations up to the maximum. What would you give to say "bye bye, Dana!"?
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
Looks like the same county poohbahs who under-invested in their own fire safety over-invested in soon-to-be-worthless structured investment vehicles, basically a bundling of subprime mortgage debt that is about to go bust.
Twenty percent, or $460 million, of the county's $2.3 billion Extended Fund is invested in so-called SIVs that may face credit-rating cuts, said Treasurer Chriss Street. In all of its funds, the county holds a total of $837 million of SIV debt, including $152 million in its $3.5 billion of money-market funds that isn't under ratings review, said his spokesman, Keith Rodenhuis.
It's what Atrios has taken to calling "Big Shitpile," sold to municipal governments as low-risk but soon to be a de facto bailout for mortgage brokers - and crushing to these same municipal governments, who won't be able to provide services out of them.
A legal representative for Nielsen, who has extensive personal ties to Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and Orange County Republican Party boss Scott Baugh, told prosecutors early last week that Nielsen would plead guilty to two felony counts: committing lewd acts on a child under 15 years old and committing lewd acts on a child under 14 years old.
He's getting off easy, he'll probably serve 3 years instead of the 30 years he faced if convicted of all the counts in current trials.
PLUS, Hank Asher, a top business associate to Rudy Giuliani, was named in the bribery investigation of Sheriff Michael Carona. He's got the double-whammy, shady ties to America's Mayor AND America's Sheriff!
Asher, identified by the initials H.A. in Overt Act 59 of a federal grand jury indictment against Orange County sheriff Michael Carona, had handed the diamond-encrusted Cartier baubles to the wives of the sheriff and his deputy, and with that, assured himself a place in a federal indictment that was looming.
Asher is not charged with any crime in the indictment. But his expensive gifts are clearly part of the corruption investigation.
Someday somebody's going to write a book about the dysfunctional conservative backwater that is the OC, and it's not going to look anything like the TV show.
As the smoke begins to clear in San Diego, the stories and reactions to the fire will start competing with the recovery effort atop the fold. First on the minds of many in government seems, not surprisingly, to be response time and firefighting capacity. Unforunately, Republicans are again demonstrating that they make up in bluster what they lack in remote semblance of coherence. Southern California Republican Congressmen such as Duncan Hunter, Brian Bilbray, Darrell Issa, Jerry Lewis, Elton Gallegly and Dana Rohrabacher have been lining up for every available reporter to knock Governor Schwarzenegger and the state's CalFire bureaucracy for supposedly impeding firefighting efforts throughout the region last week. They've flown so dramatically off the handle in fact that even Chris Reed has it right on their craziness- or at least part of it:
The congressmen who are doing such a good job exposing the state's bureaucratic tomfoolery in its wildfire response have some explaining to do themselves. Couldn't they have spared an earmark to cover the cost of outfitting the California Air National Guard's C-130 with a fire-retardant tank, something that was promised to happen after the 2003 wildfires but never did?
Instead, Duncan Hunter funneled $63 million into the DP-2 Vectored Thrust Aircraft boondoggle. And Dana Rohrabacher worried more about buying expensive planes the military didn't want than about helping California's wildfire-fighting capacity. This is from a May story in the Washington Post:
... Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) has made one of the biggest earmark requests in the new Congress, seeking $2.4 billion to build 10 more C-17 planes -- which the Pentagon has said it does not need.
These gentlemen have ended up discussing almost every issue in the country, all in the context of the fire. And they've managed to be completely wrong every time. So without further ado, an "oh the humanity" sampling from the past week.
Henry Waxman is doing yeoman work today at a House Oversight Committee hearing on Blackwater, not only taking them to task for the irresonsible and lawless behavior of their security personnel within Iraq, but directly blaming the State Department for blocking meaningful investigation.
Waxman pointed to a Dec. 2006 incident, in which a drunken Blackwater contractor shot the guard of the Iraqi vice president:
The State Department advised Blackwater how much to pay the family to make the problem go away and then allowed the contractor to leave Iraq just 36 hours after the shooting. Incredibly, internal e-mails documented the debate over the size of the payment. The charge d'affaire recommended a $250,000 payment but this was cut to $15,000 because the diplomatic security service said Iraqis would try to get themselves killed for such a large payout.
Waxman noted that in light of such evidence, it's hard "not come to the conclusion that the State Department is acting as Blackwater's enabler."
If Henry Waxman today wants to go to Iraq and do an investigation, Blackwater will be his support team. His protection team. Do you think he really wants to investigate directly?
It's hard to characterize this as anything but a veiled threat. Disgraceful.
(Incidentally, for another California connection, the CEO of Blackwater was an intern for Dana Rohrabacher many years ago. Can you say "conflict of interest"?)
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Everyone needs to read dengre's latest diary on a 1999 Congressional delegation that went to Saipan to check up on the abuses, but instead turned into an opportunity for certain Congressmen to get "serviced" by the prostitutes there.
We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it's time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney's "I'm a moderate" comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.
But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
"It's amazing how little we know about the science of our environment and a thing called climate change. Before we automatically throw money into this subject matter we ought to know what we're talking about. Global warming is apparently a problem, but global cooling can be as well."
Yes, believe it or not, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Scandal) actually said that. So why exactly did he say this? And why is anyone taking him seriously? Follow me after the flip for more...
"The president insists on defining amnesty in a way that is contrary to the way everybody else defines that word," he said. "Every time he does, he loses credibility."
Calling himself a strong supporter of Bush throughout his administration, Rohrabacher said that this time he was personally offended by Bush's suggestions that the bill was good for America. He repeatedly referred to it as the "Bush-Kennedy" bill, linking Bush to Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy, and he blamed the bill on an "unholy coalition between the big-business element of the Republican Party and the liberal left."
Amnesty? "Bush-Kennedy"? Huh? Maybe Dana Rohrabacher is taking the right position on this bill, but he's doing it for the completely wrong reason. So why is Dana wrong, even when he's right? Follow me after the flip for more...
OK, I just saw this on The Liberal OC, and I think I should share this with all the rest of you. Remember when I told you that Jim Brandt is running for the State Assembly in the 54th District, where Betty Karnette is termed out?
Well, Jim is looking for some help. He actually is looking forward to winning this race and serving the people of Long Beach, San Pedro, and Palos Verdes in Sacramento, but he can't win this thing alone. If you're in this area, then perhaps it's time for YOU to step up and help Jim out!
Follow me after the flip to find out how YOU can help...
