Here's some tidbits from the campaign trail with 12 days out:
• CA-03: Bill Durston and Dan Lungren debated last night, and it was a predictable affair, says Randy Bayne:
Nothing new, no fireworks, no knockout punch, no excitement of any kind was reported by either MyMotherLode.com or the Stockton Record. Just what we already know - Durston wants us out of Iraq, doesn't like No Child Left Behind, and thinks the bailout is the wrong solution. Lungren supports the occupation, favors No Child Left Behind, and voted for the bailout.
If you're looking for change from eight years of down the toilet policy, and you don't want to continue flushing our future down the crapper - vote for Bill Durston.
If the registration stats cited by anecdotal reports are at all accurate, we're going to be very close to registration parity in this seat by Election Day. Lungren may be acting positive in public, but inside the campaign they must be terrified. They probably didn't expect Durston to run a credible campaign.
"Lincoln asked, 'If you call a tail a leg, how many legs has a dog? The answer is four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it one,'" McClintock said in a statement. "And calling a homosexual partnership a marriage doesn't make it one."
I'm pretty sure that means nothing at all, but California's Alan Keyes has had to distance himself from the comment. Meanwhile his much bigger problem is lacking the funds to run a proper campaign. He's now taken to relying on cheap robocalls, and Charlie Brown has immediately called on him to stop. Dirty trick robocalls that appeared to be coming from the Brown campaign were a major factor in John Doolittle's narrow re-election in 2006.
• CA-46: I didn't get a chance to post Debbie Cook's amazing closing statement at Tuesday's debate. Here it is.
The OC Register has a story on this race today. These "Challenger hopes to upset incumbent" stories have a familiar feel to them - the pose of surprise that the race is competitive, the quote from the shallow CW fountain like Allen Hoffenblum explaining why the incumbent is probably still safe, and the overall sense of shock, which would be natural if you weren't paying attention for the last 18 months, like, um, us.
• Assembly & Senate: Art Torres and Ron Nehring had a debate yesterday, and I think Torres needed to be prepped a little better. He claimed that Democrats could grab a 2/3 majority in the legislature but then couldn't come up with a simple list of what seats are in play. He should be reading more Calitics. Nehring replied with a lot of bunk and a little truth.
None of that adds up to 54 and 27, of course, and Nehring said Torres' boast "just doesn't pencil out."
He noted that Democratic efforts to oust Sen. Jeff Denham via recall failed miserably this year and the party ended up with no opponent to challenge Sen. Abel Maldonado in Santa Maria, a district believed to be winnable by a Democrat.
On the Assembly side, Nehring said, Republicans "have a great shot at holding on to" the 15th and "have a number of strategic advantages in the 78th (because) the Democrats have nominated the most liberal candidate (Marty Block) they possibly could."
In the 80th, the Democratic candidate (Manuel Perez) "is getting hammered on ... social issues which are important to many people in the Latino community," Nehring said.
"I don't know how can you be serious about trying to have a two-thirds vote in the Legislature," Nehring told Torres, "when you blow so many of these opportunities."
I'll go bottom to top on this. Manuel Perez is going to CRUSH Gary Jeandron, and if anyone's being hammered, it's the Republicans. The IE money is pretty one-sided in the state. Between that and the registration gains, it'll take more than just spin to dig your party out of its self-created hole, Mr. Nehring.
However, on one point I will agree with you. The Denham recall and Maldonado disaster have indeed stopped the potential forward momentum in the Senate. Of course, Torres couldn't say the plain truth - that Don Perata is among the worst leaders in recent Democratic Party history, and has completely set back the state in major ways by his blunders. He is an embarrassment.
This is a local story that bleeds into the area of national security and the congressional races. Dan Lungren was warned about the situation last year but apparently completely ignored it. This involves the smuggling of foreign soils into the United States. These soils contain biological matter and in particular micro fungi and other microbes. This company then bio-engineered these organisms to create "organic pesticides." Unfortunately one worker at least is now gravely ill and company employees bragged of smuggling the soil past customs.
Lungren may be locked in a competitive race with Bill Durston, this is a seat we could take away from Republicans if this type of news gets out and catches the attention of local voters. Lungren sits as a Ranking Member on Homeland Security Subcommittee in the House. He brags of his SAFE ports act from 2006, but here is a case where he was less than enthusiastic about going to the mat for national security.
* Dan Lungren really, really doesn't like when you film him talking his BS. Bill Durston is sending somebody to film his events, and Lungren thinks that is very unfair. How is he supposed to spew his right-wingnuttery if it is going to be available on the web? Poor Dan.
* Shorter Dan Walters: Woe is we. In all seriousness, the loss of reporters covering politics is having a disastrous effect on California. Unfortunately, this isn't going to get better for a while as the business plan for most media outlets is still struggling to catch up to the TwitterAge.
* The Yosemite glacier and the Sierra snowpack are simply melting away. The consequences for our water supply (65% of it in California comes from here) are catastrophic.
* Home sales in Southern California spiked in September. I think it's a lot of bargain hunting and people buying up foreclosed properties for cheap (50% of the homes sold had been foreclosed).
* Prop 10: Anthony Rubenstein, the campaign manager for yes on Prop 87, the Oil Extraction Fee, goes after T. Boone and his scam, Prop 10. With almost every editorial board and environmental group opposing Prop 10, it faces an uphill climb. It's a bad scheme to flood money into T. Boone's new cash cow, natural gas, and it should be cast upon the garbage heap of ideas.
* John Myers of KQED has made his weekly podcast available. It's worth a listen, after you've listened to the Calitics Show, of course.
* Speaking of the Calitics Show, this week we have an interview of San Francisco DA, and California Obama co-chair, Kamala Harris with a few bloggers from the DNC. We'll kick that out sometime at the end of this week. Full details forthcoming soon.
Republican campaigns all over are starting to tank as Election Day approaches. California, long considered the land of "safe seats" because of the 2000 redistricting plan that basically secured the status quo for both parties, is no exception. The news is not good for incumbent Republicans.
Just days after a poll by respected polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates showed Democratic challenger Bill Durston in a virtual tie with Congressman Dan Lungren for the 3rd Congressional District seat, Lungren's campaign has released the results of two polls of their own. Unsurprisingly, both polls show Lungen with a sizable lead.
By Randy Bayne
The Bayne of Blog In spite of a recent poll showing only 33% support for incumbent Congressman Dan Lungren, his campaign "is not convinced his candidate has anything to worry about." Congo Dan is so sure he will win the 3rd Congressional District race that he missed the Asian Pacific Islanders Public Affairs Association (APAPA) forum over the weekend. The reason given was business in Washington, but Congo Dan did make it to a fund raiser in Murphys later that same day.
An internal poll shows Bill Durston in a statistical dead heat with Dan Lungren. From the email to supporters:
We've just received great news from a poll of 500 likely voters conducted by the respected polling firm, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates. Dr. Bill Durston is in a statistical dead heat with Dan Lungren in California's 3rd Congressional District!
When voters were asked who they would vote for if they were to vote today, 33% chose Lungren, 30%, chose Bill, 7% chose another candidate, and 30% were undecided. With a margin of error of 4%, the differences between Bill and Lungren were not statistically significant.
After hearing a positive profile about both Lungren and Bill, the tallies were even closer - 39% for Lungren and 38% for Bill. After hearing about some of Lungren's many shortcomings, including his Hawaii vacation paid for by special interests, his allegiance to the Bush-Cheney administration, and his fondness for taking money from Big Oil, voters chose Bill over Lungren by a margin of 43% to 34%, a difference which is highly statistically significant.
This shouldn't surprise anybody. CA-03 is the seat with the smallest registration gap between the parties that's currently held by a Republican, and by November I'll be willing to bet that gap will be almost erased. Durston won't have all the money to get out the "balanced" information about him and his opponent, but he will be competitive.
This could be a good time for outside groups to jump in. CA-03 is one of those under-the-radar seats nationwide that is very, very winnable, and a late push could easily put Durston over the top. Furthermore, he's a solid progressive Democrat who supports single-payer. At least one group is helping out. Bill Durston is one of the over 100 Progressive Patriots who are benefiting from Russ Feingold's efforts. Russ Warner (CA-26) was added to the Progressive Patriots "Expand the Map" program today, and Charlie Brown and Jerry McNerney are members as well.
I simply have not had the time to do a full update of all the Congressional and legislative campaigns. And sadly, it doesn't look like that time will be forthcoming soon. So I think I'll do mini-updates where possible.
• CA-46: Debbie Cook has been endorsed by DFA (Democracy for America). Jim Dean, the Chair of DFA, said in a statement, "Debbie Cook has been a grassroots champion for over 20 years and has a proven record of success in the private sector and as a public servant ... Debbie Cook is running because she's a committed advocate and activist who fights for her constituents and delivers results."
In the past, DFA has been able to move some resources into districts, so we'll see if they're going that route in this race. DFA has also recently endorsed Bill Hedrick (CA-44).
• CA-26: Russ Warner's campaign is announcing via email that the DCCC named his race as "one to watch." That doesn't mean they'll get any money, but it puts them in the queue if the race tightens. Unfortunately, the DCCC has kind of a deliberate style, where they hoard their money for the races they know are toss-ups, and then wait until the very last minute for these emerging races, sometimes beyond the point at which that money can be effective. I understand the strategy but it wouldn't be smart from Warner's perspective to bank on any help from Washington in his race against David Dreier. He needs his own resources as well as money from California lawmaker's PACs.
Which reminds me, California Democrats, it's time to use it or lose it. We have a number of races where the challenger can win if they have enough resources, and in the seats where an incumbent has token or no opposition and a huge war chest, that money should not be sitting in an account somewhere. Help our own candidates! Expect more pressure on this very soon.
• CA-03: It's kind of fun watching Dan Lungren try to humina-humina his way out of supporting Prop. 8. He really has no idea what he's talking about. It would be bad enough if a citizen of the state had this atrocious an understanding of basic civics, but this guy is not only a US Representative but a former state Attorney General!
• AD-80: The GOP tried to get Manuel Perez' occupational status as an "educator" thrown off the ballot, but they failed. Now he has received the endorsement of the highest-ranking law enforcement official in Imperial County, D.A. Gilbert Otero. Considering that his opponent, Gary Jeandron, is the former police chief of Palm Springs, I'd consider this endorsement to be significant... UPDATE re: CMR, seems that Gary Jeandron supports "traditional marriage." In Palm Springs. Now, so did Bonnie Garcia, but she was able to win enough in Imperial County to offset it. Jeandron needs the Palm Springs vote to be huge to win.
(Moved video up top as it is pretty gosh darn funny. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Yesterday, we told you about California Democrats who were holding events to celebrate the 73rd birthday of Social Security. Their intent was to both pay tribute to the program that has been a lifeline to millions of seniors for over seven decades AND to condemn John McCain and Republican members of Congress who are eager to privatize the system and let the corporate greed-mongers of Wall Street make a bundle.
For instance, Jeff Morris, the Congressional Democratic candidate who is going head-to-head with Wally Herger in CA-02, held his campaign kickoff at the Social Security office in Redding.
Julie Bornstein, the Democrat running to unseat Mary Bono Mack in CA-45 also held an event, to open her new campaign office in Palm Springs, with a special emphasis on celebrating 73 years of Social Security.
But Beverly and Leonard's celebration in CA-03 took the cake, so to speak...
Today is the birthday of Social Security, and Democrats around the country will be celebrating the program that has provided stability and dignity to seniors for the last 73 years. During the last few years, George W. Bush, John McCain and the Republicans in Congress have done their best to try to dismantle the protections that Social Security has built over the years.
"The American people said 'no' to George W. Bush and John McCain when they tried to privatize Social Security, and they'll say the same loud and clear to John McCain this November for promising more of the same," said DNC Chairman Howard Dean. "The same people who brought you Enron can't be trusted to gamble away the Social Security trust fund on the ups and downs of the stock market. John McCain is wrong on the privatization of Social Security, and he's the wrong choice for America's future."
Throughout the US, Democrats will be visiting Republican legislators and taking them copies of this birthday card. Here in California we have several special events taking place.
Up in CA-02, Democratic Candidate Jeff Morris, who is challenging the do-nothing Republican incumbent, Wally Herger, will be holding his Campaign Kick-Off at the Social Security Office in Redding. If you're in the area, stop by and meet him and his wife, Judy, and their many dedicated supporters.
Where: Social Security Office, 2195 Larkspur Office, Redding, CA 96002
When: Thursday August 14th at 9:45 am
Down in CA-45, Julie Bornstein, the Democratic candidate who is challenging Republican Mary Bono Mack, will be celebrating both the Social Security Birthday and the opening of her campaign office in Palm Springs. There's a rumor that cake may be involved...
Where: 1027 South Palm Canyon Drive, Palm Springs, CA
When: Thursday August 14th from 4:30 to 6:30 pm
In today's Sacramento Bee newspaper Dr. Bill Durston finally got some press coverage about his race against one of the most well-known California Republicans, Dan Lungren. You can decide whether it was a positive article or not, but one thing is for sure: Bill Durston is putting up a fight for this seat.
Part of Durston's fight to "take back our government from the special interests that control it, and to restore government of, by, and for the people" is online. He has recently created a video that pieces together clips from a debate he had with Lungren in 2006 about corruption and a more recent ABC News segment in which Lungren is found to be taking luxury vacations paid for by special interests, despite House ethics laws which prohibit such trips. If that video gets you riled up about Lungren, please consider sending Durston some love on his ActBlue page.
Speaking of ethics issues and abuse of power, one of the reasons Durston is having to fight such an uphill battle against Lungren, who refuses to debate him this year, is the fact that Lungren is paying for much of his campaigning with taxpayer money. Lungren has three "town hall meetings" coming up in the district next week and he is promoting them with color advertisements in the Sacramento Bee (a quarter-page full-color ad appeared Aug. 4), automated mass phone calls, and a fancy color mailer touting his "energy plan" that went out to residents of the 3rd congressional district. In tiny text on the mailer is: "This mailing was prepared, published and mailed at taxpayer expense." These town hall meetings are nothing more than campaign stops. It's outrageous that Lungren's campaign for re-election is being funded by taxpayers like you, me, and Bill Durston himself.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
• I thought I'd have time to put together a monthly roundup for May, but it never came together, and the primary is going to change those analyses a bit, so I'll put something out after the primaries.
• I have to correct an error. On Saturday I wrote that Marta Jorgensen had dropped out of the race in CA-24. She had, but she recently got back into the race and is focusing on turning out new voters in Northern Santa Barbara County around Lompoc. This is a crucial effort to activate Hispanic voters who traditionally have not turned out, and I both salute Ms. Jorgensen for her efforts and apologize for the error. Hopefully she can visit Calitics and fill us in on that effort up in Lompoc.
• Doug Ose has loaned his campaign another $600,000 in the waning days before the GOP primary against Tom McClintock in CA-04. This primary now exceeds $4 million dollars, and it's hard to spend that much in that district. McClintock pulled out of a debate earlier this week, and there was the Pete Wilson savaging as well. Reading the tea leaves, I don't think Ose would make that extra investment if he wasn't close to nailing this down, but I could be wrong.
"Lungren's behavior is disgusting. He claims to be a leader in ethics reform, then he turns around and subverts House ethics rules. This is just one of many examples of Lungren's hypocrisy [...] The people of the 3rd Congressional District deserve better representation than a career politician like Dan Lungren who sells out to special interests. I've been caring for the people of our district for over 25 years as an emergency physician. I believe we have an emergency in our government. I'm running for Congress to help restore government of, by, and for the people."
I like it. Durston is trying to put up a big number in the June 3 primary, despite running unopposed, to show his strength in this challenge.
• And it's not primary-related, but I think we have the first ever Calitics mention in the LA Times in this story about Laura Richardson. Hey guys, you could have used my name, it's right above the title....
UPDATE (by Brian): I have said before that some of the IEs have really angered me. It seems that at least a couple of these annoying IEs have something in common: EdVoice. Chris Cabaldon's former lobbying organization employer has been quite busy this year. In SD-23, they have the cheezy "Carbon-neutral voting" mailers. In AD-8, EdVoice has gone all in for their former CEO, Cabaldon. Randy Bayne has the story on a negative mailer on Mariko Yamada for supporting vocational education for mentally retarded Californians. Not cool.
But you know where he would go? Hawaii. To an event hosted by the American Association of Airport Executives. Dan Lungren, a longtime hack always looking for his next gig, currently represents the 3rd Congressional District north of Sacramento. Lungren also thinks himself a wily fox who can avoid ethics rules that bar lobbyists from going on vacation-themed junkets. And ABC News caught on to his little scheme (h/t CapNotes). Video here
So, here's how it works. Lungren and his wife fly first class to the beautiful Kona coast of Hawaii. The Congressman gives a half-hour speech at the Hapuna Beach Prince Resort (a lovely resort that has recently been restored after some earthquake damage). He bills his Congressional campaign for the expenses, but, conveniently, then does a fundraiser at the conference. So, it's even better than the old rules! He can get a free trip AND some campaign cash as a party favor! W00t!
Lungren says he would have gone to the conference were it LA, but hesitated when asked if he would have attended the conference if it were in Pittsburgh. Lungren couldn't even ditch the arrogance long enough to defend himself when he said:"Do I look like I go to Pittsburgh in January?"
The worst part of all this? Quite possibly it comes from the video of Dan Lungren parading around in a swimsuit, lathering himself in suntan lotion. For the record, I support proper skincare: Always wear sunscreen when taking bribes contributions in Hawaii. You can throw some love to Bill Durston on the Calitics ActBlue Page.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
I noticed this before Swing State Project codified it, but there were some stunning numbers in the Q1 Congressional fundraising reports that augur well for Democratic upsets in November.
We know that Charlie Brown is raising tons of money and has close to $600,000 cash on hand, and his challengers are spending all their money in a bruising primary race (Doug Ose has a million dollars in debts on his books). We know that three California challengers raised six figures in the first quarter (Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham) and have been consistently doing so. What's notable is the lack of fundraising prowess among key Republicans.
Dean Andal is supposed to be one of the top GOP challengers in the whole country. Yet he could only manage $90,000 in the first quarter, which considering how much effort the GOP is putting into his race is embarrassing.
More interesting to me are the incumbents. David Dreier raised $136,000, not all that much more than Russ Warner's $110,000. Dan Lungren raised around $100,000, not much more than Bill Durston's $75,000 (very respectable for his grassroots campaign). And then there are two in Orange County that are shocking. Dana Rohrabacher was OUTRAISED by Debbie Cook in CA-46: $47,000 to $39,000. And Cook didn't get a full quarter in because she didn't announce until late January. (On a similar note, Julie Bornstein was able to raise $29,000 in just a few weeks after her announcement). And in CA-42, Gary Miller was outraised by Ed Chau, a carpetbagger from Montebello, and if you add in Ron Shepston's total Miller was significantly outraised by his challengers.
That's quite incredible. Miller and Rohrabacher might be dismissing the effort against them, and they still have plenty of cash on hand. But as a symbol of support in the district, clearly Democrats have the momentum all over the state. We're going to be very competitive this cycle, and if one of these districts hits, the cash-poor NRCC and the pathetic fundraising prowess of these Republicans isn't going to save them.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
Senator Russ Feingold is once again looking for progressive candidates to select as a "Progressive Patriot." Vote now to place Bill on this list. In 2006, Patriots on this list received hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions. Don't let this slip through our hands.
And one more thing... While you're at it, it's on the same page, could you just...
Republican voter registration in California is on the decline, but nowhere is the effect more pronounced than in the Sacramento region's 3rd Congressional District.
Incumbent Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, now has the slimmest registration edge of any Republican-held congressional district in the state.
According to district registration figures updated before the Feb. 5 primary election by the secretary of state's office, the Republican advantage over Democratic registration has slipped below five percentage points, 41.6 percent to 36.9 percent. Before the 2006 general election, the GOP margin was almost 6.6 points.
This was made pretty clear when the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary was 53.1%, also the largest of any Republican-held district in the state. There's something definitely happening in this district, most of which is located in Sacramento County. The demographics are shifting and Democrats have been very aggressive in registering new voters. Debra Bowen's focus on increasing registration led to thousands of new voters placed onto the rolls before the primary, and the residual effect of that is more Democrats. They of course need to be turned out. But it's clear that Lungren is paying attention to this development. After Bill Durston launched an effort to highlight Lungren's terrible environmental record (he has a 5% rating from the League of Conservation Voters), Lungren took a walk on the most recent environmental vote in the House - a vote to eliminate subsidies for oil companies and re-route those tax breaks to renewable energy companies. He was the ONLY California Republican in Congress to miss the vote; everyone else voted against it. Lungren obviously feels some vulnerabilities on this, and he need look no further than at Richard Pombo. The LCV listed him as one of their "Dirty Dozen" in 2006, and that year, not only did Pombo end up losing, but 9 of the 13 "Dirty Dozen" (I guess it was a baker's dozen) lost as well.
If Bill Durston could secure some outside resources like that, this could be the sleeper Congressional race of 2008 in California. Keep an eye on this one.
Just days after a poll by respected polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, and Associates showed Democratic challenger Bill Durston in a 
Throughout the US, Democrats will be visiting Republican legislators and taking them copies of this birthday card. Here in California we have several special events taking place.
