While we've been focusing on the CA-10 congressional race, it's not the only special election on Tuesday. It seems like it's only been a few weeks since Sen. Curren Price moved from the Assembly, but tomorrow we just might get a replacement for him. The seat, based in Inglewood, is solidly Democratic, and it may look like we'll be able to avoid the pro-forma second special election caused by a lack of a 50%+1 majority. Gardena Councilman Steve Bradford has pretty much wrapped up all angle. He's got the money, the endorsements, and the Independent Expenditures (IEs).
Gardena Councilman Steve Bradford is in a commanding position heading into Tuesday's election in the 51st Assembly District. Bradford has a near monopoly on major endorsements and a six-to-one fundraising advantage over his nearest opponent.
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Bradford has raised $294,000, and has benefited from another $58,000 in independent expenditures, mostly from a committee of doctors that is primarily concerned with maintaining a damages cap on medical malpractice suits. (Torrance Daily Breeze 8/31/09)
Now, I can't say I know much about Bradford, other than what I've read in the past few months. He narrowly lost to Curren Price in the primary for the seat a few years ago, and is nothing if not dogged. Normally losing candidates don't get a second chance, but he's taken more than a few losses and is still sticking around. You have to give the man credit for perserverance.
That being said, the fact that he has been the beneficiary of nearly $60,000 in independent expenditures by a "tort deform" group is troubling. California already has one of the strictest tort reform laws in the nation. And while many will say, fine, that's no big deal, consider how it actually causes our system to function.
The cap on non-economic damages is generally $250,000 in California for medical malpractice. That means everything but the actual costs, ie medical expenses, resulting from the injury caused by the doctor. That sounds like a fair bit of money. But when it comes down to it, pursuing these cases in court is expensive. And many quality lawyers won't even take medical malpractice cases because it just too hard to make a decent living that way.
But consider the really perverse incentive of these caps: it is cheaper for a doctor to kill the patient than to have them in some sort of chronic condition. If a doctor kills a patient, say by giving him the wrong prescription, the family can only recover $250,000 in pain and suffering. Meanwhile, had the patient only been maimed and require life-long care, costing millions of dollars, the doctor, and his insurance company are on the hook for a big expense. In other words, if you mess up, make sure you finish the job.
Now, I'm not saying that doctors are out there killing their patients to avoid a big malpractice judgment, but you have to admit, that is one messed up incentive. The cap is far too low for medical malpractice law to actually allow serve its purpose, and so, on many occasions, doctors who make deadly mistakes simply avoid all liability. It is a tragedy of our legal and political system that this is allowed to occur.
I'm not saying that Steve Bradford will simply be a wholly-owned subsidiary of the American Medical Association, but the IEs cost the people of California. I'm sure he's a good person like (most of) our other Legislators who just try to do what is right for the state. However, we can't keep continuing to elect people by their fundraising abilities alone. It puts the diffuse interest of the majority of Californians at the whim of the special interest dollars. It is in fact, the best election system that special interest dollars can buy. We need clean money, and we need it now.
Well, this is it. After three months of argument, threats, projections, facts and figures, the special election on the budget has finally arrived. Voters now get to decide the fate of six ballot measures that will impact the near-term budget deficit and the long-term manner of budgeting in the state. Well, a FEW of the voters get to decide. I popped by my local polling place just to see the crowd size - I already voted absentee - and let's just say that the traffic was, er, light.
So here are a few lessons as we watch the results tonight:
• Money Isn't Everything - This race may finally put to rest that axiom of California politics about cash being king. The No side - and mind you, groups only raised money opposing for certain ballot measures - raised about $4.5 million dollars, all told. The Yes side raised over $26 million. Despite this 6.5:1 advantage, most polls show the first five measures on the ballot, the ones that actually affect the budget, going down to defeat. Prop. 1C, which had NO money against it and the state Democratic Party along with millions from G Tech (the makers of lottery machines) behind it, has consistently polled the worst among all measures. The No on 1A folks used a strategy that conserved dollars but did get out the message, in particular through Web and Google ads. But they were obliterated on the air and through mailers, and based on the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger skipped town and Budget Reform Now doesn't even have a headquarters tonight, it appeared not to matter.
• No Credible Messengers - The main reason these ballot measures are poised to fail is that, in general terms, absolutely no politician in this state has the trust of the people. Nobody could sell the message on the Yes side because nobody could even sell themselves. I've heard about internal polls with the legislature in single digits and the Governor below 30%. We have a crisis of confidence in California, and that stands to reason, considering the extent to which process has overwhelmed personality, making the state largely ungovernable without major revisions to that process.
• Take The Message You Want - The Yacht Party will certainly try to paint this as a victory for their anti-tax jihad, and it's highly likely that the dwindling state political media, and even possibly the Democratic leadership, will believe them. However, regardless of conservatives being "emboldened," the fact is that progressives opposed the special election for very specific reasons, and Democratic leaders must reconcile with that as well. The constraints on governance here in California are undeniable. And yet the time has come to stop finding ways around the mountain of structural problems and pick up the shovel and start digging through the mountain. It won't take overnight, and in the meantime there are solutions - some painful, some creative - that the leadership will have to take. But the message from the electorate, including those that sat this race out in anger or frustration, is that people don't want gimmicks and spending caps and service cuts. They want a functioning government and they don't see one, and they will continue to punish these people who call themselves leaders until they start acting like it.
• Musical Chairs - Curren Price will win election to SD-26 today, shrinking the need for Republican votes to reach the 2/3 threshold in the Senate to 2. At the same time, this will increase the need for Republican votes to reach the 2/3 threshold in the Assembly to 4. There are more targeted seats in the Assembly, so in the short term this is a slight net win. But it's obviously not optimal, and that Assembly seat may not get filled, if the SD-26 odyssey is any guide, until late fall.
UPDATE by Brian: As pointed out in the comments, with 100% reporting, it looks like the May 19 election will feature a runoff between Dem. Asm. Curren Price, Republican Nachum Shifren, and P&F Cindy Varela Henderson. Price is the prohibitive favorite, but the failure to attain 50% delays the special election merry-go-round for another few weeks.
As of 10:30pm, the results at the Secretary of State's site only have 15% of the vote in. Basically, Asm. Curren Price is looking like he'll win (although Mike Davis is only behind by about 1,000 votes right now), but not by enough to avoid a runoff. So we will have to wait until May 19 to have a full complement of State Senators, at which point we'll have one less Assemblymember and will need a special election for Price's seat. And the whole thing never ends.
Anyway, post results here.
as of 10:30pm:
Candidate Votes Percent
Mike Davis (Dem) 2,968 23.44%
Saundra Davis (Dem) 840 6.63%
Cindy Varela Henderson (P&F) 244 1.93%
Curren D. Price, Jr. (Dem) 3,996 31.56%
Nachum Shifren (Rep) 1,910 15.08%
Robert Cole (Dem) 1,883 14.87%
Mervin Leon Evans (Dem) 76 0.60%
Jonathan Friedman (Dem) 745 5.88%
• Polls close in the SD-26 election between Asms. Curren Price and Mike Davis shortly. We'll update with election results upon their release.
• CalPERS/STRS are attempting to be the lead plaintiffs against Bank of America in the Merril Lynch bonus scandal. Both organizations have been outspoken advocates for sound corporate governance.
• Imagine this, a bipartisan bill in Sacramento! With Dave Jones, Nathan Fletcher and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner all aboard! And the cause is noble! Basically, this bill would allow workers at small businesses with under 20 employees to be eligible for federal subsidies to COBRA in the same way that workers in firms with more than 20 employees are eligible under the economic recovery plan. The bill is AB23, and should pass out of the Assembly Health Committee today.
• OC Progressive takes a look at cuts to OCTA, the county's bus service. Unfortunately, at a time when we should be investing heavily in public transportation, services are being slashed throughout the state.
• Sen. Tony Strickland (Yacht Party-Thousand Oaks) may be able to ball, but that picture of him in uniform for the minor league Los Angeles Lightning, for whom he will actually play May 2 for a one-game special in his district, should get him disqualified from a political career. Memo to politicians - lay off the tank tops.
• Asm. Mike Davis has released a get to know you video in his race for the 26th Senate seat, the seat vacated by Mark Ridley-Thomas when he won the LA County Supervisor's race over Bernard Parks. His main opponent is Asm. Curren Price. The election is tomorrow.
• Local governments who took losses during the dissolution of Lehman Brothers want a bailout of their own. Apparently caveat emptor no longer applies as we head toward a slippery slope of bailouts for everyone. Yes, multiple investors lost their shirts on Lehman, through no fault of their own, but I fail to see how that demands a cash transfer from the Treasury.
• A new study links student obesity and proximity between schools and fast-food restaurants. I hope that study didn't cost too much, because it's completely intuitive. And I have no problem with urban planners who take this information into account when zoning areas around schools. There's a public health responsibility for government here.
• California is going to try to sell about $4 billion of bonds this week. It's not a particularly huge sale, but the response should be telling. Joel Fox notes that if we have problems selling these, don't hold your breath on the lottery securitization. With the recent bond rating decrease, they won't be an easy sell. Although, first-day sales yielded about $2.4 billion, almost half of the overall goal. John Myers examines why. I'd guess that investors know they'll get a great yield because they're demanding a high interest rate because of the state's fiscal troubles. With interest rates near zero, these are some of the best deals out there. But more bonds sold means more future payouts that hit taxpayers' bottom line.
• Finally, our condolences go out to the families of the Oakland Police officers gunned down this weekend. The incident is a profound tragedy for the City of Oakland and the entire state.
"Curren Price has been a strong voice for working families in the legislature," said California Labor Fed honcho Art Pulaski. "In these tough economic times we need leaders like Price in the Senate to protect workers and help us get our economy moving."
His main competitor is Asm. Mike Davis, but for the time being, Price looks to have all of the major chips right now. I've not heard any big tales of grassroots support that would overwhelm the institutional support. That being said, this election will likely be pretty low turnout, so you never know.
Either way, the carousel will go around again when either of them takes the seat.
Something for the legislature to read while they're on LOCKDOWN.
• We're in a special session of the legislature, separate from their normal work. So while the Yacht Party stonewalls and both sides bicker, they are making $173 a day for the privilege, with the current total at $128,000 and counting. Good work if you can get it.
• Stockton, Merced and Modesto were dead last nationally in home prices, with homes in all three metro areas losing at least 30% of their value in the first nine months of the year. The Central Valley is just getting buried. If you want to know where the rest of the state (and the nation) is headed, look there.
• The state's Healthy Families program, California's contribution to S-CHIP, was on the verge of becoming extinct until First 5 provided a $16 million dollar cash infusion, allowing their enrollment to remain open through the end of the fiscal year in June. This is of course one of the programs on the Yacht Party's chopping block. Because who likes healthy kids?
Today's GOP is a very different party, a hard-line group of self-insulated ideologues, more like a political cult than like an inclusive party that stretches its core principles to be inviting to people at or beyond that core.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
• SD-26: Mark Ridley-Thomas, now an LA County Supervisor, has endorsed Assemblymember Curren Price to fill his seat in the upcoming special election, the primary of which is scheduled for March 24. Price is expected to be challenged by Assemblymember Mike Davis. Either of them winning would trigger ANOTHER special election for their vacant Assembly seat. And on and on.
• CA-31: Ben Smith is reporting that Xavier Becerra will turn down the position of US Trade Representative. When there was a two-week lull after the rumor leaked with no announcement, I figured as much. All the more reason for Hilda Solis to run for Governor, as the Vice-Chair of the House Dem caucus won't be opening up.
While the California Republican Party is busy defending tax breaks for yacht owners, Democrats are busy working to decrease barriers to voting and increase participation in democracy. The California Democratic Party Platform even talks about increasing participation:
To promote honest leadership and open government, California Democrats will: [...]
Increase voter participation by advocating for extended voting hours and/or days, scheduling elections on weekends, or by declaring Election Day a holiday
While I agree that would be great, the current perspective of the CDP Platform is to seek increases in the percentage of participation among registered voters. Yet there is even greater potential to increase voter participation by reforming barriers to voter registration. This is the premise behind recent national legislation by Democrats in Congress and a bill by Assemblyman Curren Price for California.
These are two pieces of legislation that deserve to be followed closely, which means you'll probably need to follow on the blogs as so far both reforms have been largely ignored by traditional media.
