According to the Center for Responsive Politics, throughout the course of his political career, Brian Bilbray has received more money from General Atomics than any other single source. The San Diego company offers a wide array of services to the nuclear industry and related arenas, and spends millions each year lobbying to support that business.
So perhaps it was no surprise over the weekend that Brian Bilbray took the Union-Tribune to criticize what he calls "hysteria" over nuclear safety in the wake of the terrible events in Japan. He compares it to reaction in 1979 to the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island -- Bilbray calls it an "incident" -- and declares those who want to revisit nuclear safety standards to be "fear mongers."
As proof, he offers that the seawall protecting San Onofre is 50% higher than that at Japan's Daiichi plant. That's true. San Onofre's wall is either 25 feet or 30 feet depending on the report which means that the 8-meter wall of water that swamped the Japanese nuclear reactor would overcome or at least threaten that wall. And studies in the immediate aftermath have put the peak height of the tsunami wave in Japan at 76 feet, with a wave of more than 32 feet hitting Sendai.
And the Japanese standard that guided the building of that wall was established based on historical precedent. While a difference of a foot or two may not produce nearly so dramatic a result, mocking the idea of reconsidering our standards is reckless and insulting. Plus, as recent reporting has pointed out, preparing for the previous disaster isn't very effective:
The [Japanese] Trade Ministry dismissed evidence two years ago from geologists that the power station's stretch of coast was overdue for a giant wave, minutes from a government committee show. Tokyo Electric Power Co. engineers also didn't heed lessons from the 2004 tsunami off Indonesia that swamped a reactor 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away in India, even as they advised the nuclear industry on coping with the dangers.
In just over a year, three corners of the Pacific Rim of Fire -- Chile, New Zealand, and Japan -- have been struck my major, deadly earthquakes. The North American Pacific coast is the last corner remaining. The notion from Bilbray that it is hysterical fear-mongering to re-examine these standards and ensure that we're as protected as possible from preventable calamity is simply stunning.
The rest of Bilbray's piece reads like it was written by the lobbyists at General Atomics, so there's no need to go into it deeply. But as most of us watch day in, day out what can actually go wrong as it happens in Japan, it's interesting that Bilbray opts to recite the pamphlet about how nuclear energy is our friend.
The related irony of all this is that Bilbray says right in the title that "science, not fear, should drive America's energy policies." It's a noble sentiment, and one that I certainly support. It's odd coming from Bilbray however, since less than two weeks ago he voted three straight times against acknowledging that climate change is real. A week before that, he voted to block the EPA from regulating industry greenhouse gas emissions, when Bilbray went so far as to accuse Democrats of trying to "hijack the Clean Air Act."
There's no doubt that we all share with Rep. Bilbray the goal of protecting American lives and American quality of life. Coming so transparently to the defense of his largest political benefactor to criticize, name-call and insult those who fear for their personal safety during ongoing, unspeakable tragedy is much less than we deserve from Brian Bilbray.
With the California primaries only days away, I decided to make a list of races worth watching this coming Super Tuesday. Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
U.S. Senate (R) - Fiorina seems to have consolidated the "outsider" vote, seeing as she is the only one of the three that has not held elected office and it seems that being an outsider will get one far in the Republican primary (though not so much in a California general election).
Governor (R) - Exactly as I predicted, this race has unfolded to be 2006 in reverse. Whoever wins the GOP primary here will be so radioactive that many Republican voters likely will cross over to vote for Jerry Brown, like many Democratic voters did for Arnold last time. If Jerry Brown pulls similar numbers among Republicans that Arnold did among Democrats, then Brown is likely gonna win big. And I'm unsure about how indies will go, so I just went with an estimate similar to the 2006 numbers.
Lt. Governor (D) - This race will be very interesting: a classic NorCal/SoCal matchup, between Gavin Newsom and Janice Hahn.
Lt. Governor (R) - Newly-appointed incumbent Abel Maldonado will face a tough primary with more conservative State Senator Sam Aanestad. Given that moderates have fared pretty poorly in California elections of late, I give Aanestad the edge.
Sec. of State (R) - Any race with the Birther Queen just has to be a race to watch, more so for the comedy value, though I think most Republicans don't buy her BS, so I see Dunn getting the nomination. No matter who wins, Debra Bowen is likely a cinch for a second term.
Attorney General (D) - Very crowded primary here, with 3 term-limited Assemblymen, Torrico, Nava, and Lieu; S.F. District Attorney Kamala Harris; Facebook attorney Chris Kelly; and disgraced ex-L.A. city attorney Delgadillo, though the race seems to have narrowed to just Harris and Kelly. From what I have heard of Kelly, I am rooting for Harris.
Controller (R) - Not much drama here, but I am hoping for Tony Strickland to win so he can lose to John Chiang even worse than in 2006. Unfortunately, he is not up for reelection to the State Senate until 2012, so if he wins the nomination but loses the general, he will still be in the senate (hopefully until 2012).
Insurance Commissioner (D) - Here we have two strong candidates in term-limited assemblymen Hector De La Torre and Dave Jones. I have no preference in this race, but since Jones has more money and establishment backing, I think he'll win the nod.
CA-11 (R) - Will David Harmer, who lost by only 10% in the more Democratic CA-10 in the special election (albeit with lower turnout) be able to make it past the primary against Tony Amador and be more competitive in the general?
CA-19 (D) - I am pulling for Loraine Goodwin here. Any campaign based on health care reform is a big winner in Democratic primaries and in general elections in most parts of the state. Not sure what the HCR numbers are in this neck of the woods.
CA-19 (R) - I think I will root for Denham here, as he has won in more Democratic turf, so he is relatively saner. (And Denham is term-limited, so CA-19 run or no CA-19 run, we have a great shot at winning SD-12.) Pombo shouldn't really be of much concern, as he has placed a distant third in the recent primary poll.
CA-26 (R) - My hometown district, where Dreier faces a primary challenge from businessman Mark Butler. While I consider Dreier to be the heavy favorite, this primary challenge could further drain his campaign coffers. If he wins the primary, Dreier has the advantage of incumbency and a year more favorable to his party (though anti-Obama sentiment is much weaker in California than elsewhere). A disadvantage Dreier has is depleted campaign coffers, from spending like crazy to win only 52% against Warner in 2008 and possibly from this primary challenge.
CA-33 (D) - Former Assembly speaker Karen Bass is likely the heavy favorite, and I hope she wins.
CA-36 (D) - Harman/Winograd redux, only with more fireworks this time around.
CA-42 (R) - Even though Gary Miller's voting record is unabashedly conservative, he is still getting teabagged by three other Republicans. Count on yet another incumbent scoring a subpar primary performance.
CA-45 (R) - Mary Bono Mack has drawn teabag primary opposition from Clayton Thibodeau for her vote for cap-and-trade. She also voted against repealing DADT in spite of her district having the highest concentration of gays of any Republican-held district, possibly out of fear of getting teabagged. If Thibodeau upsets Bono Mack, this Obama-voting R+3 district could be put into play.
CA-47 (R) - Will Tan and Van split the Vietnamese vote, allowing Kathy Smith to sneak through?
CA-50 (D) - I like Busby, but I think her time has passed, if she couldn't beat Bilbray in the far more Democratic-favored 2006. Attorney Tracy Emblem seems to have most of the grassroots support.
AD-05 (R) - In this open, evenly-divided suburban Sacramento seat, the Tea Party has gotten into another Republican primary, backing Craig DeLuz against party-backed Prop 8 backer Andy Pugno. I am rooting for DeLuz to win the primary so in one election we defeat a Prop H8er and increase our chances of winning this district too.
AD-30 (D) - The Parra/Florez feud continues, with Nicole's dad Pete Parra facing off against Dean's mom Fran Florez, who lost to Danny Gilmore, who didn't like being an Assemblyman and that's why he's not running, which I at first found surprising.
AD-36 (D) - Linda Jones, who ran here in 2008, faces primary opposition from real estate broker Maggie Campbell and police officer Shawntrice Watkins. This time I am rooting for Watkins, because this Antelope Valley-centric district is very law-and-order, being the home of the Runners (Sharon and George, of "Jessica's Law" fame), and incumbent Steve Knight also having been a police officer before being elected to the Assembly. Watkins could cut into Knight's law-and-order advantage. Plus Watkins' endorsement from Equality California can't hurt either.
AD-68 (D) and (R) - I am really looking forward to an all-Vietnamese matchup here. Will be interesting to gauge the Vietnamese vote if it's Phu Nguyen (D) vs. Long Pham (R).
And what is a California election without some ballot measures? Five are on the ballot this time.
Prop 13: Tax break to property owners for making seismic retrofits. I like seeing tax breaks used as incentives for good causes. Vote YES!
Prop 14: Top two votegetters in the primary would go on to the general election, limiting voter choices. Vote NO!
Prop 15: Repeals ban on public financing and raises fees on lobbyists to fund a public financing system for SecState election beginning in 2014. Vote YES!
Prop 16: PG&E power grab that requires a 2/3 vote to create public power districts or allow local governments to purchase their own renewable power. Vote NO!
Prop 17: Weakens consumer protections and allow car insurance companies to charge much more for late payments. Vote NO!
ESCONDIDO, May 20, 2010 - The International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America (UAW) Region 5 has endorsed Tracy Emblem for U.S. Congress in California's 50th as the Democratic Candidate to vote for in the June 8th primary.
UAW Region Five consists of active and retired members in 17 states in the Western and Southwestern United States and represents individuals such as manufacturing and aerospace employees, agricultural implement workers and academic student employees, readers and tutors at the nine teaching campuses in California.
"Putting Americans back to work should be the number one priority right now in Congress. If America is to have a future, now is the time to revitalize our manufacturing base with high tech green manufacturing jobs that benefit Americans. It starts immediately with policies that return our jobs to America and by retooling for a new economy together with a multi-industry strategy approach through partnership with private, public and labor segments."
The UAW is one of the largest and most diverse unions in North America, with members in virtually every sector of the economy. UAW-represented workplaces range from multinational corporations, small manufacturers and state and local governments to colleges and universities, hospitals and private non-profit organizations. The UAW has more than 390,000 active members and more than 600,000 retired members in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.
It has been actively involved in every civil rights legislative battle since the 1950s, including the campaigns to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Fair Housing Act, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1988 and legislation to prohibit discrimination against women, the elderly and people with disabilities.
The UAW also has played a vital role in passing such landmark legislation as Medicare and Medicaid, the Occupational Safety and Health Act, the Employee Retirement Act and the Family and Medical Leave Act. In Washington and state capitols, the UAW is fighting for better schools for kids, secure health care and pensions for retirees, clean air and water, tougher workplace health and safety standards, stronger worker's compensation and unemployment insurance laws and fairer taxes.
This endorsement brings the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to about 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy Emblem is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
(More great information - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.
ESCONDIDO, May 12, 2010 - The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) has endorsed Tracy Emblem for U.S. Congress in California's 50th Democratic primary race in North San Diego County.
AFGE represents a diverse workforce of government workers who are the vital threads of the fabric of American life. Government employees inspect the food we eat and the places we work, protect citizens from the illicit flow of drugs, maintain the safety of our nation's borders, care for our nation's veterans and keep the national defense systems prepared for any danger
"With the 50th District geographically between two military bases and San Diego County home to the second largest Veteran population in the nation, I am proud to have the support and endorsement of AFGE whose members work to care for, empower and assist our returning Veterans and protect and keep America strong," said Tracy Emblem on Wednesday.
AFGE is the largest federal employee union representing 600,000 federal and D.C. government workers nationwide and overseas. Workers in virtually all functions of government at every federal agency depend upon AFGE for legal representation, legislative advocacy, technical expertise and informational services.
AFGE believes that all unions should belong to the house of labor and has been nationally affiliated with the The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) since AFGE was founded in 1932. The AFL-CIO is a voluntary federation of 56 national and international labor unions. The AFL-CIO was created in 1955 by the merger of the AFL and the CIO.
This endorsement brings the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to about 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy Emblem is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
Logan Jenkins, a San Diego Union-Tribune columnist based in North San Diego County, covered the tight Democratic Congressional primary in California's 50th District today. He profiled the two Democratic candidates in the race competing for a chance to unseat the Republican incumbent, Brian Bilbray: 1) Francine Busby, "the Harold Stassen of the 50th district, a three-time loser in head-to-head races against Republicans," and 2) Tracy Emblem, the fresh new upstart with extensive blue collar support from about 20 labor unions. He posited that the 50th District might change color from red to blue this year. Read more:
WASHINGTON D.C., May 07, 2010 - National peacekeeping group, Citizens for Global Solutions (CGS) gave progressive democrat, Tracy Emblem the thumbs up in her race for United States Congress in North San Diego County's 50th district with their official endorsement for her candidacy in the June 8th Democratic Primary.
CGS is a membership based 'big idea' group working to promote the International Criminal Court (ICC), reform the United Nations and encourage the United States to adopt a multinational foreign policy, which includes working together with other nations to abolish war, protect our rights and freedoms, and solve the problems facing humanity that no one nation can solve alone.
"I am proud to have the support and endorsement of the Citizens for Global Solutions and to work together to promote the end of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. We all have a responsibility to be part of the solution," said Tracy Emblem upon receiving the news.
CGS remains one of the leading U.S. based organizations focused on the ICC. Through the work of members, they have been able to roll back the anti-ICC policies adopted by Congress and the Bush administration. They are currently meeting with members of the Obama administration to build a truly positive U.S. relationship with the Court.
As a founding member of the Partnership for Effective Peacekeeping, CGS successfully lobbied Congress to appropriate an additional $524 million to help address critical shortfalls to funding U.N. peacekeeping missions. Overall, they were able to help reduce, by more than 20%, U.S. debt to the U.N. They will continue work to bring this to zero and to put blue helmets back onto U.S. troops.
Close to 90% of the 183 candidates endorsed by Global Solutions PAC in the 2008 election cycle won, including 5 new senators and 5 new representatives.
Tracy is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee, to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray.
With the June primaries fast approaching, we have three candidates facing challengers for the party's nominations. As we pursue our goal of a governing progressive majority, you'll be hearing from each of them. Our hope is that you will find an hour or two to help elect true progressive candidates like Tracy Emblem in California's 50th congressional district. -Tim Carpenter
Republican Brian Bilbray has stood as a living roadblock to every meaningful piece of legislation. He voted NO to Regulate Predatory Lending Practices while people are losing their homes due to foreclosure. He voted NO to Health Care Reform, even after his friends in Congress stripped the Public Option back to nothing less than another private insurance bailout. He voted NO to Ending the War and to bring our troops home. In fact, the only consistent YES vote he has cast is to participate in the Obstruction of Progress.
The RNC considers the 50th a vulnerable district. In 2008, President Obama won with over 14,000 votes. The district is 97.8 percent urban and is ready for change and progressive leadership in Congress.
I am running in a contested Democratic Primary against the party "blue dog" candidate who has already run and lost three times. I have the support of California's working families, the California Labor Federation, the California Nurses Association, National Air Traffic Controllers and almost 20 individual unions in the AFL-CIO. Labor supports me because they know it will take a progressive leader to deliver a victory. Your support will help to level the playing field against the party machine.
With only days until the primary, I need your help now more than ever to win this fight. Please volunteer to make calls to help us reach voters in this critical Southern California district. Together, we can work for true progress to make America stronger.
Yours truly,
Tracy Emblem
P.S. Your campaign contribution of $10, $25, $50 or whatever you can afford will help us reach voters in this critical time. Please visit www.TracyEmblemforCongress.com.
P.P.S. Join Tracy this Thursday on the "Inside the Party" call. Register here.
ESCONDIDO, CA April 23, 2010 - The California School Employees Association (CSEA) joins the California Federation of Teachers (CFT), the California Labor Federation (CLF) and nearly twenty diverse labor unions from building trades to health care specialists and service employees in their official endorsement of Tracy Emblem for United States Congress in California's 50th district.
CSEA represents nearly 230,000 classified employees in California public schools and community colleges.
These school support staff, known in California as “classified school employees,” perform a wide range of essential work, including security, food services, office and clerical work, school maintenance and operations, transportation, academic assistance and paraeducator services, library and media assistance, computer services and more.
"I am proud to have the support and endorsement of the working men and women who keep our schools and colleges open and running. California's Classified Employees work hard every day to ensure that our learning environments are safe, clean and ready for our students, young and old. It is essential that we have a quality, skilled workforce which is why I support rights for employees to organize, pool their resources and collectively bargain for benefits. Investing in our local communities will have lasting results for generations to come," said the jubilant Tracy Emblem.
These endorsement's bring the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to almost 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
Vote Now for Tracy Emblem the True Progressive Candidate
We all know in our hearts who the real progressive candidate is -- Tracy Emblem. The other 50th District candidate has lost the general election three times, and is now attempting to gain the DFA endorsement as a "progressive" candidate. She is not a Progressive Democrat who DFA should endorse. In fact, the DFA does not want Blue Dog or Corporate candidates to represent the party as stated in a recent email from DFA.
To our fellow democrats who are Busby supporters we say that your friendship and loyalty to her is admirable, but we all know friends don't win elections. It is the best qualified candidate who should move on to defeat Brian Bilbray. Let's all make it happen, and as our opponet says - "Let's rally the troops."
Why support Tracy Emblem as the Progressive Candidate? Progressive Democrats of America and Progressive Push - both national progressive organizations have endorsed Tracy.
Tracy has the support/endorsements of 16 labor unions who represent hundreds of working families in the 50th District.
This district can only be won by a strong opponent -- Tracy has been a civil rights attorney protecting and fighting for people's constitutional rights!
Please Click on the Link Below & Vote for Tracy Emblem
With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.
Lately, interviews concerning healthcare reform have been plastering the news with droning answers that seem to always slip into over-complicated political jargon. In an interview on Fox 5 San Diego, Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray weighed in on the effect of healthcare reform. The two candidates running for the seat in California's 50th district have competing views of what needs to be done to pass healthcare reform. Francine Busby, addressed the problem head on, and put forth a solution with a fresh display of knowhow and vision. Busby focused on what needs to be done to make healthcare reform relevant to families around the dining room table here in San Diego, rather than the compromising table in Washington. Busby is in support of passing this healthcare reform bill to help the 108,000 uninsured people in her district obtain health insurance. She is willing to do what it takes to make sure the issues relate to the American people and not the American bureaucracy.
Brian Bilbray's comments were all about POLITICS. When asked about the votes needed to pass the bill, Bilbray pinned the blame on the Democrats, their 40-vote majority and lack of bipartisan cooperation, but the moderator did not let him get very far. He claimed that the Democrats are not including the Republicans enough on negotiations, and are strictly going after their own votes. But in reality, when was the last time a President has put together a healthcare summit with both parties present for discussion? Never. President Obama's actions have exceeded any prior attempt at a bipartisan agreement on a bill. Then I still ask myself, why has there been no compromise? The answer that Bilbray poses is: politics.
The moderator further expressed her disgust with the Republican's political games when she said, "You guys are going to lose those votes anyways. You are going to lose at the polls, because people are sick of it Congressman. People are really fed up and tired of all the politics." This Fox Network moderator conveyed the distrust and disgust that the people of America truly have for this broken system of governance. The American people want healthcare reform. They want cheaper insurance premiums. They want a choice! Republicans are playing election games instead of doing their job, which the American people have to remind them of. Stop the political nonsense and pass a bill that will help Americans.
The Republicans, including Bilbray, are focused on the midterm elections in November rather than what is right for the country. Brian Bilbray simply refused to answer the question about how he was going to help the 46 million uninsured Americans. For Bilbray, denying healthcare reform is a political victory for the GOP. Bilbray tiptoed around the issues and reinforced the fact that Republicans are playing politics and using buzzwords in attempt to win elections. The moderator showed more exasperation with Bilbray by saying, "This is frustrating." Then she promptly ended the interview. I agree with her. The California 50th Congressional District deserves better than a question dodger. They deserve someone who will help healthcare reform pass and help them get what they need. The Republican's "No First," mentality has lasted too long. The only way things will change is if we fill our government with people that are dedicated to making things better for the American people. Francine Busby is one of these people. Please Congressman Bilbray, no more politics in this healthcare bill: just results.
Anyone who understands the fundamentals of campaigns knows that Tracy Emblem, despite her passion and earnest efforts, has no chance to win the democratic primary in the 50th congressional district. Emblem's spin on the strengths of her campaign misrepresents reality. Her minor endorsements and negative campaign strategy has not moved her closer to the only viable candidate for the Democratic nomination, Francine Busby.
Emblem has failed the key tests of any serious candidate. First, Tracy Emblem's scorched earth campaign against Busby is doing a disservice to her party. Second, her funds are not sufficient to compete against an incumbent candidate. With $8,000 in the bank and over $45,000 in debt, it is impossible to run a campaign and rally support. Francine Busby has raised almost $290,000 dollars in her race to unseat Bilbray and take back the 50th congressional district for Democrats. The money, support, and endorsements make it clear that Busby is the only viable candidate in this race.
Emblem's continued mudslinging is a losing strategy. This approach has created a false dichotomy between the right choice, Busby, and the empty choice, Emblem. Emblem's claim that Busby's support is overwhelmingly due to long time loyalties is petty and insulting to Busby's supporters and endorsers. If anything, this indicates that Emblem is in denial about her lack of appeal, and ability to build a broad base of support. Francine's broad name and face recognition are huge assets that any candidate needs to win. Tracy has no name recognition and no means to achieve it. Although Tracy claims that she is a candidate running for the issues, her only issue seems to be Francine. Having no money and little support, Tracy Emblem's campaign is over. The only choice left for Emblem is to graciously withdraw.
PDA is the second progressive organization to endorse Emblem this week. The Progressive Push PAC endorsed Emblem on Saturday. Luis A. Cuevas, the National Director, stated on Emblem's Facebook page that he was proud to endorse "the real progressive in California's 50th Congressional District race".
The Republicans in the 50th Congressional District are starting to feel comfortable about having a win in the bag in 2010. CQ Politics just released an assessment that Bilbray's GOP seat in North County's 50th is secure. Clearly the author is unaware of the district's history and political leanings before 2002 covered in Part 1 of this series and plays down the systematic closing of the point gap between Democrats and Republicans since the Republican's gerrymandered win in 2002. Part 2 of this series will explore why a Democratic candidate hasn't yet won the District and what they need to do to wrestle control back from the Republicans.
Why hasn't a Democrat won the district back yet?
The following list encompasses some personal observations as well as election analysis in a 2006 poll commissioned in California's 50th Congressional District by Courage Campaign, a non-partisan, Progressive 527 based in Los Angeles, and MyDD, a Progressive blog devoted to analysis and commentary on political campaigns and infrastructure, to determine why the national Democratic message failed to give Democrat Francine Busby the seat formerly occupied by convicted felon, Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Busby also lost to Republican Brian Bilbray in the 2006 regular election, having probably been her last best chance to win this district.
1. Voter Turnout - A winning Democratic candidate needs high Independent and Decline to State voter turnout, which combined currently makes up at least 28% of registered voters in North County, to close the point gap with the Republican incumbent. Busby has been repeatedly unsuccessful in mobilizing this demographic and securing their vote. Voter appeal beyond Democratic base voters will be instrumental.
2. Inland Voter Turnout - A winning Democratic candidate needs to mobilize and secure the vote of residents in the inland part of the district. The highest density of registered voters are inland and the majority of these voters are working class families. Thus far, the previous Democratic candidates have been coastal candidates, such as Busby and Nick Leibham, which did not resonate with inland voters. However, one candidate Progressive Democrat Tracy Emblem, a resident of Escondido since 1964 with working class roots and strong support from Labor Unions will appeal to this key inland working class demographic.
3. Issue-based Campaign - A winning Democratic candidate needs to clearly draw a distinction between themselves and the Republican incumbent by running a strong, issue-based campaign. Most voters in 2006 had no concrete idea where Busby stood on important issues, so her image in the mind of the voter was poorly defined. The Republicans, on the other hand, led the discussion and framed any debate around issues they knew would resonate in their favor. Even in the current jockeying for the 2010 primary election, until a month ago Emblem was the only candidate who clearly outlined her positions on important issues on her campaign website. Busby only recently added any substantive issue-based information to her campaign website after Emblem pointed out the omission at a Mesa Democratic Club meeting in November.
4. Accountability - A winning Democratic candidate has to hold the current administration accountable for problems that have occurred under its watch both at home and abroad. This is as relevant now as it was during the Bush administration, perhaps more-so. President Obama has high disapproval ratings and a successful candidate needs to distinguish clearly how they will provide viable solutions to the problems the Obama administration and Democratic legislators have been unable to resolve. San Diego News Network noted that Busby is still uncritically toting President Obama's change message as if she's his sidekick. Emblem, on the other hand, has demonstrated that she can hold the President accountable for unsuccessful policy decisions, like Afghanistan.
What's the bottom line?
The Democratic party cannot continue to do the same old same old in the 50th district if they have any hope of unseating incumbent Republican Bilbray. With a focus on voter turnout, an issues-based campaign focusing on issues that resonate with Independent, Decline to State and Inland voters, and lastly courage to hold the current administration accountable for policy missteps, Democrats can pull off this supposed Hail Mary pass win.
The district is ripe for the picking but Tracy Emblem is the fresh democratic face the district needs. Francine Busby has proven that she doesn't have the support of the entire district behind her and is out of touch with inland voters. Tracy is an attorney based out of Escondido and understands the needs of the entire district, coastal and inland, it's demographics and what is needed to win. Her winning message of strongly supporting working families and Labor Unions, creating new jobs, rebuilding our economy, supporting public education, fixing healthcare, protecting our environment, and supporting President Barack Obama’s economic recovery program will resonate with Progressive voters in the district.
Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
That's a question that Brian Bilbray's Democratic challengers should be asking. Congressman Joe Wilson--who, in an erroneous and indecorous fit of pique, screamed "You Lie!" during Obama's joint session of Congress--really likes to spread the cash around under the name of the Carolina Majority PAC--which he controls.
The FEC filings show that Joe Wilson's PAC has an extensive list of beneficiaries, but there's one that stands out: in the 2006 cycle, the Carolina Majority PAC donated a cool $5,000 to the re-election campaign of Brian Bilbray.
Now, I don't know about you, but I think that most people in North San Diego County wouldn't take political money from someone who loves the confederate flag and is a proud member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans. Hell, when George Allen decided he wanted to play that game, he packed up from SoCal and brought his cowboy boots and confederate flag pin to Charlottesville.
So the question for Brian Bilbray is, does he support confederate South Carolina values of Congressman Joe Wilson? If he doesn't, he should repay that $5,000, especially in light of Wilson's outburst at our (coincidentally, I presume?) mixed-race President. If he does, though, he has no business being a Congressman from Southern California.
