Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
(I wish we'd hear from all of our challenger candidates more regularly. - promoted by David Dayen)
I am Steve Young, the Democrat challenging John Campbell [R, CA-48] the sixth richest member of congress. My challenge is truly a David vs. Goliath battle -- and we know how that one turned out.
I am writing to ask for your help. Two reasons make the House race in California's 48th district important:
We need a representative with the spine to vote his heart; and
As we have learned from sad experience, we don't have the votes in Washington to pass necessary legislation.
We need a voice - reflective of our values - in the U.S. House in Washington.
John Campbell [R, CA-48] thinks his public attacks on earmarks, including broadsides against Andre Agasi's highly touted charter school in Las Vegas, a Sherwin-Williams research project, John Murtha, and Charles Rangel's education center, mark him as a fiscal conservative for his base. But Campbell's votes in 2006 during the Republican control of the house mark him as a fiscal hypocrite.
Let's be honest about John Campbell [R, Ca-48]. He is not a deficit fighter, but a political hack. He now plays the curmudgeon on earmarks, but his 2006 voting record under the Republican majority in Congress is a different story. For example, Campbell voted, without a hint of objection to ridiculous earmarks like: $1 million for Southern and Eastern Kentucky Tourism Department; $250,000 for the Montana World Trade Center; $300,000 for the Bronx Council for Marketing of Local Business Art Initiatives; $250,000 for the Bronx On-Water Learning Program; $3 million for the OPERATIONS OF THE OFFICE ON RIGHT-SIZING THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT'S OVERSEAS PRESENCE.
John Campbell's claims fiscal superiority, but his votes in 2006 belie a different motive. duc de La Rochefoucauld (1613-1680) said, "Hypocrisy is the homage vice pays to virtue." Campbell is the classic proof of the statement.
It had to happen. The Reps have opened an internet fund-raising site. The scary part is that Keith A. Davis of Huckaby Davis Lisker (who previously worked for Bush-Cheney '04) is the Treasurer. I am cross posting from my DailyKos diary.
This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around. Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand. The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges. So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008. And saying "Hello, I'm a Republican member of Congress" just doesn't rake in the money like it used to. Here's the list:
John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter. And Doolittle's problems are well-documented.
Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven't fully stepped up. Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don't have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay. But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.
Last week I ran down the unused money from last year's unopposed and underopposed California members of Congress. It was a long list. 22 districts held by Democrats fielded no Republican challenger who met a very low bar of fundraising legitimacy. Really not impressive, but really not surprising either. So what about the flipside? How did Democrats do in going after Republicans?
Democrats left only one California seat unopposed, and failed to raise money in one other. Of the 21 Republican-held seats, only 4 qualified as as unopposed or underopposed (challenger raising less than $25,000). It suggests two things to me. One, Democrats are already doing a pretty good job of funding candidates in red districts (although there's still room to improve of course), and two, that strong funding only goes so far given the way these districts are drawn. So as I would be cautioning anyways, fundraising is only one piece of the puzzle. It still takes the right candidate in the right context.
Well, you can still listen to the show! Yesterday's show is now in the online archives. Go ahead and listen now, or download the podcast and play it in whatever you use to play mp3 files later.
So would you like a little sneak peek as to what we talked about on the air yesterday? And would you like to know who will be coming on to Ken Burke's radio show soon? Well then, follow me after the flip for more...
Join us and our panel as we look at the status of energy today and the policy and scientific solutions. Are you worried about peak oil? Feel a squeeze from high gas prices? Come to the Science Cafe Energy Forum and participate in a panel discussion on energy and the issues we face today.
Panel:
- U.S. Rep. John Campbell (R-Newport Beach)
- Dr. Mark Musculus, Sandia National Laboratories California
- Mr. Jim Maclay, Doctoral Candidate (LEED Certified), UC Irvine National Fuel Cell Research Center
Moderator:
Mr. Pat Brennan, Environment Editor, The Orange County Register
Follow me after the flip for all the details about today's event...
I saw that a bankruptcy judge sided with Brea and against bankrupt Tower Records' attempt to lease their 30,000 square foot space to Walgreens:
"There are a lot of places in our city where a Walgreens would be great," O'Donnell said. "But not in an entertainment/restaurant district."
A drugstore? Eeeewww...how tawdry! People with illnesses picking up prescriptions! Can't possibly have that across the street from the multiplex!
Have we come to this? Local government inserting itself into the free marketplace to the extent of deciding where it is and isn't appropriate to put a drugstore?
I really don't know. I'll leave that judgment call to you.
- Who's Breaking the Law Now?. The Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals faults the Orange County Sheriff's Department in its detention of an inmate who was cuffed to a hospital bed. The OC Register has more.
- Gingrich (Finally!!) Says He's a Cheater! OK, so this is not a purely Orange County story... But still, Dan Chmielewski has something to say about it at The Liberal OC. : )
This just in from our friend Fleischman at Flash Report:
The FlashReport would like to congratulate the three members of California's Congressional delegation who have been tapped with 'high honors' from the National Taxpayers Union -- receiving their coveted "Taxpayer Friends" rating... And the winners are... Dana Rohrabacher, Ed Royce and our own FR Beltway Correspondent John Campbell!!
OK! So I guess if you're a best buddy of Jack Abramoff, or you have the state buy you a Mustang Saleen AFTER YOU ANNOUNCE YOUR RUN FOR CONGRESS (!!!), or you direct a $300,000 State Department grant to a Russian hospitality school run by your wife's employer, then you're a "Taxpayer Friend"...
Want to find out more? Follow me after the flip...
Here are some wild and wonderful stories from behind the Orange Curtain, and and across the Land of the OC, that will make you laugh, cry, and scratch your head in total disbelief:
- Congressman Oblivious. Guess who said this about Iraq: "We are in a long war with people…who want to kil [sic] us. No one has yet offered an alternative plan." Wow, so I guess the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report doesn't count? Ah, more wisdom from the same person who proclaimed that "Baghdad is safer than Washington, D.C." Dan Chmielewski has more at The Liberal OC.
- Mr. NAMBLA goes to court. Jeff Nielsen is a hard-core Republican Party activist... And he is a pedophile. Well, he was recently caught with his pants down... And now, his trial begins. Hmmm... And the GOP is supposed to be the party of "moral values"?
