General: I suspended the monthly ratings because it was ridiculously time-consuming and better to get the information out more timely, but in case you're wondering, here is my impression of the top targets in California for the Congressional races as we stand with 22 days out. My considered opinion is that no incumbent Democrat is in trouble, including Jerry McNerney. As for the Republican-held seats:
1) CA-04: Lean Dem. Charlie Brown has been ahead in multiple polls and actually has a ground game, unlike Tom McClintock.
2) CA-03: Tilt Repub. Bill Durston's poll showing the race as a dead heat raised a lot of eyebrows. Unfortunately people discovered this race too late, but by Election Day I'll bet that the registration numbers are virtually tied and there will not be an immediate call. The smart money for progressives wanting to impact a race should go to Dr. Durston against Dan Lungren.
3) CA-46: Tilt Repub. Debbie Cook is replicating the Loretta Sanchez strategy of ground mobilization that she used to defeat B-1 Bob Dornan. We'll see if she can pull it off against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher.
4) CA-26: Tilt Repub. Russ Warner has been doing a decent enough job and there's a bit of outside support, but David Dreier has a wall of money.
5) CA-45: Lean Repub. This race has also been under the radar, but the district is either #1 or #2 in the COUNTRY for foreclosures, and affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein can stand to benefit from movement toward Democratic solutions on the economy in her race against Mary Bono Mack.
6) CA-50: Lean Repub. This is the permanent tease district in California, and despite Nick Leibham's efforts to shake up the race, I'm not seeing Brian Bilbray taken down right now, especially because he's likely to whip up populist support in his base with his vote against the bailout.
7) CA-52: Likely Repub. It was always going to be an uphill battle for Mike Lumpkin in his race against Duncan Hunter's son running for Duncan Hunter's old seat. I'd like to see better signs here, but I'm coming up empty.
I rate everything else as Safe Republican at the moment. I'll do a legislative targeting in the next campaign update. Now, to the news (on the flip):
• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees. Clearly this came on the heels of Durston's strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:
Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. "It's always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one's ability to pay. We're the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn't have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care."
Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll. Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.
• CA-04: Lots going on here. After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn't close the door.
But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock's account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.
McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.
His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock's multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.
"What office are you running for?" Brown said in a July statement.
I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock. Go Alyson Huber! Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.
In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service. Truth Fights Back, John Kerry's group, is getting Charlie's back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock's. Brown also signed the Children's Defense Council's Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman. I very much liked this strong take in the press release:
"Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he's not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens access meaningful healthcare coverage," said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown "His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it's illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems."
Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition. In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.
"Tom McClintock's idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can't get healthcare coverage," Brown said. "This misguided bill could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives. It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.
Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently. This is big:
The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it's about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.
That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.
• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan. He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he's not in office. Yeah, uh, that's kind of the point. You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job. What a loser.
Prince criticized Lewis' use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.
"Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks," he said, pointing to Lewis' ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. "When I'm congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don't have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend."
One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country. The highest? CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein. If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.
• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:
Of course, I'm happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense. There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.
(Full disclosure: I'm an elected DSCC delegate, thanks to constructive nagging in 06 from the Calitics crew, and I'm an alternate to the RCDCC as soon as I'm properly sworn in. I'm on the board of Democrats of the Desert, a chartered CDP club, and of the ACLU Desert Chapter.
UPDATED: As of September 21st, Democratic volunteers registered 786 Democrats, 143 Republicans (well, it's the law), and 171 Other.
At Netroots Nation, NYBrian and hekebolos had a terrific panel on getting involved with your local Democratic Party. Most of us have plenty to say on that subject, and in my region the Riverside County Democratic Central Committee takes its share of criticism from the local clubs and activists. But this year, we have plenty to applaud, and I want to share the work that the RCDCC is doing to support our current candidates, and those coming up. The board has several new members, and the new chair is making everyone work, work, work.
Crossposted at dkos.
• CA-04: I love this video from the Charlie Brown campaign. They traveled 412 miles down to Thousand Oaks to talk to constituents of California's Alan Keyes, State Senator and professional office-chaser Tom McClintock. It's really funny and drives the point home that McClintock is a do-nothing at best and a dangerous radical at worst:
And get this, McClintock is now running on the state budget, the Republican version of which has a 19% approval rating. That's like putting Nixon, Bush and Cheney in your campaign ad.
• CA-26, CA-45: Not one but two! Both Russ Warner AND Julie Bornstein have been added to the DCCC "Races To Watch" list. This is a prelude to being listed as Red To Blue candidates. If the D-Trip comes through with some money, maybe threatened incumbents like Dreier will have to stop mouthing off about other GOP races and start paying attention to their own. UPDATE: Mike Lumpkin (CA-52) is on that list now too, which is a pleasant surprise.
• CA-46: When John Fund tries to target a Dem challenger, you know something's going wrong. Fund is sounding the alarm on Debbie Cook, as Dana Rohrabacher tries to greenwash himself with a scheme to build solar-power plants on federal land without environmental impact studies. Fund says that Cook called this "an extreme position," but he chopped the quote:
Democratic challenger and Mayor of Huntington Beach Debbie Cook agrees that the process of approving solar power plants is sluggish and needs to be sped up, but not at the expense of the environment.
"This is just another extreme position by Dana Rohrabacher. What we need to do is come up with a balanced approach that streamlines these projects, because they're critically important to our energy future, but at the same time recognizes the impacts to the environment," Cook said.
Rohrabacher's doing the equivalent of saying he'll grow jobs by hiring 10,000 federally funded serial killers, and then wondering why everyone's worried about the mass death ("You wanted jobs, didn't you?"). There's a sensible way to free up the bottlenecks and a rash one. Rohrabacher chose door #2.
• CA-42: The internal poll results released by Ed Chau are intriguing (showing him up 44-38 after a mix of positive and negative information released on the candidates), but I don't think candidates who have minimal bank accounts should do polls stating the numbers after a mix of information if they don't have the money to get that information out. But if Gary Miller truly has a 28% re-elect number as the poll states, he could be in trouble.
(Moved video up top as it is pretty gosh darn funny. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Yesterday, we told you about California Democrats who were holding events to celebrate the 73rd birthday of Social Security. Their intent was to both pay tribute to the program that has been a lifeline to millions of seniors for over seven decades AND to condemn John McCain and Republican members of Congress who are eager to privatize the system and let the corporate greed-mongers of Wall Street make a bundle.
For instance, Jeff Morris, the Congressional Democratic candidate who is going head-to-head with Wally Herger in CA-02, held his campaign kickoff at the Social Security office in Redding.
Julie Bornstein, the Democrat running to unseat Mary Bono Mack in CA-45 also held an event, to open her new campaign office in Palm Springs, with a special emphasis on celebrating 73 years of Social Security.
But Beverly and Leonard's celebration in CA-03 took the cake, so to speak...
Today is the birthday of Social Security, and Democrats around the country will be celebrating the program that has provided stability and dignity to seniors for the last 73 years. During the last few years, George W. Bush, John McCain and the Republicans in Congress have done their best to try to dismantle the protections that Social Security has built over the years.
"The American people said 'no' to George W. Bush and John McCain when they tried to privatize Social Security, and they'll say the same loud and clear to John McCain this November for promising more of the same," said DNC Chairman Howard Dean. "The same people who brought you Enron can't be trusted to gamble away the Social Security trust fund on the ups and downs of the stock market. John McCain is wrong on the privatization of Social Security, and he's the wrong choice for America's future."
Throughout the US, Democrats will be visiting Republican legislators and taking them copies of this birthday card. Here in California we have several special events taking place.
Up in CA-02, Democratic Candidate Jeff Morris, who is challenging the do-nothing Republican incumbent, Wally Herger, will be holding his Campaign Kick-Off at the Social Security Office in Redding. If you're in the area, stop by and meet him and his wife, Judy, and their many dedicated supporters.
Where: Social Security Office, 2195 Larkspur Office, Redding, CA 96002
When: Thursday August 14th at 9:45 am
Down in CA-45, Julie Bornstein, the Democratic candidate who is challenging Republican Mary Bono Mack, will be celebrating both the Social Security Birthday and the opening of her campaign office in Palm Springs. There's a rumor that cake may be involved...
Where: 1027 South Palm Canyon Drive, Palm Springs, CA
When: Thursday August 14th from 4:30 to 6:30 pm
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Well, the votes are in, the matchups are set, and so I thought it was time for a baseline roundup of where I think the California House races stand as of now. The main pieces of information that are causing me to reset my expectations are the primary results, the April 1-May 15 fundraising numbers and the new registration numbers from the Secretary of State's office. You can track all three yourself:
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Senator Barack Obama has inspired me to become his District Level Delegate for the 45th Congressional District. If you have the opportunity to vote in the CA-45 district level Obama caucus, I respectfully ask for your vote.
As a 26-year-old Mexican-born immigrant, product of Coachella Valley Unified School District and proud UC Davis alum, I've worked tirelessly to advocate positive and progressive change throughout our 45th Congressional District.
After finishing the Coro Fellowship in Public Affairs, I returned to my hometown of Coachella to become - much like Senator Obama - a community organizer.
As a Political Organizer for the Roth for Congress Campaign, I worked with local activist and emerging leaders with the simple yet powerful message of "change." In my efforts to galvanize a new generation of voters - much like Senator Obama's campaign - I used new media tools like MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube.
I also helped organize what I proudly called Roth-A-Palooza, which took place at my parents' Coachella ranch.
The Press Enterprise devoted a front-page article on our grassroots work.
Since, I've been appointed as a delegate to the California State Democratic Party, appointed as alternate to the Riverside County Central Committee, and served as the Political Chair of Democrats of the Desert. I am currently the Inland Empire's Regional Political Organizer for SEIU United Healthcare Workers - West.
I am proud that my union local was instrumental in pushing SEIU State Council to endorse Senator Obama before the California Primary.
My efforts included:
o Speaking at a Obama rally in Riverside
o Recruiting and participating in precinct walking in Riverside
o Phonebanking our union members
o Organizing and executing a GOTV campaign targeting our union members.
I thank you for your time and hope you consider voting for me as our pledged Obama Delegate. If you have any questions, please shoot me an email. See you all on Sunday!
Juan Carlos Sanchez
e: jcsanchez1981@gmail.com
Note: I work for the SEIU United Healthcare Workers - West but nothing in this comment should be construed as anything other than my personal opinion at the time of posting
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
This was and probably could/should have stayed a quick hit, but I'm in a mood.
Rep. Mary Bono Mack and her husband Rep. Connie Mack are joining forces to form the new America Supports You Caucus. Reps. Adam Schiff and Allen Boyd join them as co-chairs. The group will, at least in part, serve to highlight the Pentagon service that provides veterans with links to support services (instead of providing those services?).
I'm all for connecting veterans with support services and all, but at some point you can't wave that miniature American flag hard enough to hide that you aren't actually serving members of the military as well as you should. How fast before this becomes a de facto test of support-the-troops devotion?
Open Thread yourselves as well. Fun with Metronomy's Radio Ladio on the flip.
Welcome back to the long-awaited California House races roundup! These things take up an inordinate amount of time, but I've finally found some, and I'm ready to go with this roundup. There's a lot of additional information, including Q4 2007 fundraising numbers, the turnout in the February primary offering a decent snapshot of Democratic chances in a particular district, and quite a few new candidates to speak about. I'm going to rank the top ten challenges to Republican-held seats across the state, as well as take a look at the two intriguing races held by Democrats. But first, it should be mentioned that the deadline for applying to run for a Congressional seat is fast approaching (March 7, I believe), and 4 of the 19 Republican-held seats in the state still have no challenger: CA-02 (Herger), CA-19 (Radanovich), CA-22 (McCarthy), and CA-25 (McKeon). This is especially distressing in CA-19 and CA-25, where turnout in the Feb. 5 primary was either even or favored Democrats. So anyone in these 4 districts: run for Congress! It's a résumé builder!
(By the way, you can follow all of the candidates in all these races at the 2008 Race Tracker.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.
CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH
CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH I was looking at Q3 numbers. Brown has raised $692,000, and has $483,000 CoH. Big numbers for a non-incumbent.
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH
There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!
CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH
Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.
CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH
Very encouraging.
Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.
Yet another reason to love Air America: Stephanie Miller and Jim Ward are coming to the desert in support of Democrats of the Desert's Annual Awards Dinner:
The money we raise supports Democratic candidates in the CA-45th Congressional district, the 80th and 64th California Assembly Districts, and the California 37th Senate District. We're making Democrats cool here, at last, as Julie Bornstein recently exhorted us to do. KPTR is beloved of all Democrats out here, and they're giving our sponsors one heck of a deal. Tell your friends, and come out to the Palm Springs area this April to party with us. Stephanie Miller!
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
This is almost a placeholder diary so I can get to it later in my monthly roundup, but this diary at Open Left shows the very real opportunity available in California this time around. Six Congressional Rpublicans who are running for re-election have less than $250,000 in cash on hand. The NRCC, the campaign arm for the House GOP, is spread thin by retirements and challenges. So many incumbents are going to be on their own in 2008. And saying "Hello, I'm a Republican member of Congress" just doesn't rake in the money like it used to. Here's the list:
John Doolittle, CA-04
George Radanovich, CA-19
Ken Calvert, CA-44
Mary Bono, CA-45
John Campbell, CA-48
Darrell Issa, CA-49
I can add to this the fact that Gary Miller only raised a paltry $40,000 last quarter. And Doolittle's problems are well-documented.
Unfortunately, our Democrats statewide haven't fully stepped up. Two of these incumbents (Radanovich, Issa) don't have challengers yet, and Mary Bono just got one in Paul Clay. But I would hope that Art Torres and the team would wake up to the fact that there are opportunities all over the map, in places that would significantly help down-ballot races as well.
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
My friend Carole, a terrific Democrat who knows how to work a room, had the ear of a Major Insider at the Magic Johnson party for Hillary this past week (I'm still listening to everyone and leaning Obama). She was pushing for DC attention to the CA-45th, as she often does, because we have two Democratic candidates (so far) to challenge Mary Bono, and our Dem candidate will need some real support. Mr. Major Insider thought our GOP/Dem breakdown was 80/20ish, a common misconception, and one which drives Carole right up the wall. Our actual numbers are:
Dem (35.85%) * Rep (45.53%) * Other (18.62%)
Not only that, the CA-45th has a high growth rate with newcomers trending Democratic, a weak Bushbot incumbent, a bargain media market (for California), and last year's race was the first potentially competitive one in thirty years. But the DCCC gave Roth no tangible support. So why no love from Washington? Follow me past the flip for the many reasons why the Democratic Party needs to start playing to win in the CA-45th.
Throughout the US, Democrats will be visiting Republican legislators and taking them copies of this birthday card. Here in California we have several special events taking place.
