Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
• CA-03: Bill Durston, who is showing lots of strength in his race against Dan Lungren, has earned the support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, a 3.5 million-member group of retirees. Clearly this came on the heels of Durston's strong support for a not-for-profit health care system:
Dr. Durston has also been a strong proponent of universal health care. "It's always been my philosophy that access to necessary medical care is a basic human right, not a privilege based on one's ability to pay. We're the only western industrialized country in the world that doesn't have some form of universal health care, yet we pay twice as much per capita as the other countries for medical care."
Durston is starting to get some major attention after that last poll. Expect him to attack Lungren on his vote for the bailout over the next 27 days.
• CA-04: Lots going on here. After vowing to shut down his account for 2010 statewide races, professional politician Tom McClintock just couldn't close the door.
But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock's account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.
McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.
His Democratic opponent, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Charlie Brown, made hay of McClintock's multiple accounts over the summer, calling him a career politician in search of a job.
"What office are you running for?" Brown said in a July statement.
I just find it interesting that Republicans are that worried about Jack Sieglock. Go Alyson Huber! Of course, the other half of this is that McClintock is a huge hypocrite, but you knew that.
In other news, Charlie Brown has a new ad out comparing professional politician McClintock to his record of service. Truth Fights Back, John Kerry's group, is getting Charlie's back over that ridiculous anti-military smear of McClintock's. Brown also signed the Children's Defense Council's Pledge to ensure affordable health care for every child and every pregnant woman. I very much liked this strong take in the press release:
"Tom McClintock gets free healthcare, a free car, free gas, and tax free per diems he's not entitled to, yet has voted to restrict the ability of Californians to see a doctor of their choice and fought against helping our most vulnerable citizens access meaningful healthcare coverage," said Retired USAF Lt. Col. Charlie Brown "His record of inaction has not only helped drive up the cost of healthcare for every Californian, it's illustrative of a career politician hypocrite who would rather serve himself, than solve problems."
Earlier this year, McClintock authored SB 1669, which would have made it easier for health insurance companies to deny the health claims of Californians on the basis of pre-existing condition. In fact, SB 1669 would have extended the period that insurers could look back in your medical history from 12 months to 10 years.
"Tom McClintock's idea of healthcare reform is writing a law that says if you have a medical problem, you can't get healthcare coverage," Brown said. "This misguided bill could have literally cost millions of Californians who have battled and overcome ailments ranging from diabetes, to mild cardiac conditions or cancer their lives. It was so misguided, it never came up for a floor vote and not a single healthcare organization or institution signed on to support it.
Also, Mcjoan at the Great Orange Satan had a good piece based on some of her time in the district recently. This is big:
The campaign has seven offices across the nine counties in the huge district, one of the most beautiful in the country, spanning the Sierras. With four regional field directors, seven organizers and 25 paid canvassers, the campaign has knocked on more than 120,000 doors and made over 300,000 phone calls. Hundreds of new Democrats have been registered. This is the kind of retail politics that allows Democrats to win in Republican districts, in fact it's about the only way to run successfully in a tough district. McClintock, by contrast, has basically no field operation.
That ground game is going to win it for Charlie.
• CA-11: Continuing his quest to be the most overhyped Republican challenger this cycle, Dean Andal continues to dodge the question of whether or not he supported the Paulson bailout plan. He literally has no idea how to handle it, preferring to hide behind the idea that it would be inappropriate to comment because he's not in office. Yeah, uh, that's kind of the point. You say how you would be different from the current office-holder as a means to get the job. What a loser.
Prince criticized Lewis' use of earmarks, the pet projects that lawmakers attach to spending bills, in some cases without a vote.
"Jerry Lewis is totally void of morality when it comes to earmarks," he said, pointing to Lewis' ties to Bill Lowery, a longtime friend and lobbyist. "When I'm congressman, the mayor of Beaumont and the mayor of Apple Valley can pick up the phone and call me for help. They don't have to call a lobbyist who happens to be my best friend."
One thing that Prince would be better advised to focus on is that his district has one of the highest rates of foreclosures in the entire country. The highest? CA-45, where Mary Bono-Mack is facing affordable housing expert Julie Bornstein. If there was ever a reason to create a single-issue candidacy, this is it, and for Bornstein, who has an easier time of it with a less partisan electorate, that could be a real opening in the final month.
• SD-19: Calitics Match candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is attacking Tony Strickland for greenwashing his environmental credentials in a very, shall we say, familiar way:
Of course, I'm happy to have provided the template for calling out Strickland on this nonsense. There are in addition lots of IE attacks in this race as it nears the home stretch.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:
• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:
David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.
"I would have voted differently on this bill," said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California's 26th district. "It's important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that's why I'm running for Congress."
Russ Warner's eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.
Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.
• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).
• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.
• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.
(cross posted at dailykos.com and downwithtyranny.blogspot.com)
Man, what a time to be a Democrat! After years of rebuilding our party through the netroots, we're poised to make MAJOR gains this November in what will probably be an even more historic election than 2006. We have an amazingly strong (presumptive) nominee here in CA-41 and nationally, more Senate seats up for grabs than you can count on two hands, three special election victories in deep red territory, and probably tens of new House seats that will flip our way.
But I'm not here to gloat about our election successes so far or prematurely celebrate our prospects in November. I'm writing to you today to introduce you to a woman who has the best chance of unseating the Tom Delay of 2008: Jerry Lewis (R), CA-41. This amazing woman is Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean. (Follow me after the jump...)
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
As we all remember, the Culture of Corruption meme was devastating during the 2006 elections. Congressman Jerry Lewis somehow managed to avoid being indicted before the election, which surprised a lot of people. What has happened since is the new GOP playbook for how the Bush Justice Department protects a Republican member. And today, the LA Times adds another piece to the puzzle -- it isn't pretty.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
Federal prosecutors who work public corruption cases in Los Angeles had a vastly different week than their counterparts in Manhattan.
While the East Coast AUSAs enjoyed national celebrity for bringing down Gov. Eliot Spitzer, Los Angeles U.S. Attorney Thomas O'Brien disbanded his public integrity unit last Monday. Those 17 attorneys will be redistributed among the major fraud and organized crime sections, which now will have a mandate to battle corruption, spokesman Thom Mrozek said.
Wong Yang was heading up the investigation into Rep. Jerry Lewis's (R-Calif.) ties to a lobbying firm and the millions of dollars in contracts the firm's clients received from Congress. Wong Yang, the first Asian-American woman to serve as a U.S. attorney, left her post with Justice to become a partner at Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher, the law firm representing Lewis. She will co-chair the firm's crisis-management practice group, along with Washington, D.C., partner Theodore B. Olson, a former Bush administration solicitor general.
Looks like the ultimate in crisis-management. Wow.
Welcome back to the long-awaited California House races roundup! These things take up an inordinate amount of time, but I've finally found some, and I'm ready to go with this roundup. There's a lot of additional information, including Q4 2007 fundraising numbers, the turnout in the February primary offering a decent snapshot of Democratic chances in a particular district, and quite a few new candidates to speak about. I'm going to rank the top ten challenges to Republican-held seats across the state, as well as take a look at the two intriguing races held by Democrats. But first, it should be mentioned that the deadline for applying to run for a Congressional seat is fast approaching (March 7, I believe), and 4 of the 19 Republican-held seats in the state still have no challenger: CA-02 (Herger), CA-19 (Radanovich), CA-22 (McCarthy), and CA-25 (McKeon). This is especially distressing in CA-19 and CA-25, where turnout in the Feb. 5 primary was either even or favored Democrats. So anyone in these 4 districts: run for Congress! It's a résumé builder!
(By the way, you can follow all of the candidates in all these races at the 2008 Race Tracker.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
(Yesterday we saw Tim Prince's email, here are some words about another Democratic challenger to the very corrupt Jerry Lewis. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
(Note: This was written last night by my husband, and will be cross-posted on DailyKos under his username after I post this.)
I'm sure that around here, JerryLewis of CA-41 fame needs no introduction. Well, a few Democrats have entered the race.
Tonight (writing this as of January 9th), I just met one of them, and Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean strikes me very much as the real deal. Passionate, outspoken, dedicated and strong-willed, with a life story that has "true Democrat" stamped on it, Dr. Ramirez-Dean could very well help us replace a, well, Jerry Lewis with a real progressive. Crooks and Liars has a great if brief post about her.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
That was quick. The new US Attorney for the Los Angeles region, Thomas O'Brien, was just sworn in a week or so ago. He's apparently making the Jerry Lewis investigation a priority:
A federal grand jury in Los Angeles has issued a subpoena for a House Appropriations Committee staffer as part of the ongoing probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), the ranking member of the powerful panel.
Greg Lankler, a staffer on the House Appropriations Committee's Defense subcommittee, was recently subpoenaed by a federal grand jury looking into Lewis, according to House insiders.
The subpoena is for both documents and testimony, although it is unclear at this point whether Lankler will cooperate. The matter has been forwarded to the House general counsel's office, which is still studying the subpoena.
There hasn't been a subpoena in this case, which involves Lewis' moving millions of dollars' worth of earmarks to his friend, the ex-Congressman and lobbyist Bill Lowery, in over a year. Investigators on the case have been running out of money. So it is a bit of a surprise that this subpoena would emerge. The big difference in recent weeks is the confirmation of Thomas O'Brien.
Now for the reason I turned to Novakula in the first place (yes, he's a partisan hack, but his sources are typically impeccable). This weekend he reported on maneuvers within the House GOP caucus to keep Jerry Lewis in his post as the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee, despite being under federal investigation. You'll recall that Minority Leader John Boehner stressed ethics and honesty when elected by the caucus, and even demoted John Doolittle from Appropriations when the FBI raided his house. There would appear to be a double standard, and reformers within the Republican Party are pissed.
The GOP leadership was so frazzled by this column that they sought to spin it on Friday, before it was even published. They denied that the meeting ever occurred. However, Lewis is still the ranking member of the Committee, so those denials only go so far. So it appears he'll remain in that position throughout his re-election effort. And that effort has Howie Klein pissed:
It also looks like he's gotten the same shill candidate, Louie Contreras, who didn't run against him in 2006 to be his "opponent" in 2008-- and the state of Art Torres' California Democratic Party is so pathetic that they won't even lift a finger to look into it.
So Lewis, probably the single most corrupt man in Congress, has the Republican nomination locked up and the Democratic nomination rigged. All he has to do is not get indicted. He's spent over a million dollars in legal fees to keep that from happening.
Contreras actually jumped into the comments of that post and claimed that State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell was supporting him. He isn't. The San Bernardino Sun claims Tim Prince is running, though he earlier said that he would only run if Lewis didn't. I can add that there will be an additional "mystery candidate" in this race, and for now, that's all I can say. (Tee-hee!!)
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
Bruin Kid lets us know that Jerry Lewis will be seeking re-election next year. He's obviously pretty confident that his legal troubles and investigations into his corrupt earmarking will amount to nothing. I'm thinking this is why:
In Los Angeles, a federal criminal investigation of Rep. Jerry Lewis, a California Republican, stalled for nearly six months due to a lack of funds, according to former prosecutors. The lead prosecutor on the inquiry and other lawyers departed the office, and vacancies couldn't be filled. George Cardona, the interim U.S. attorney in Los Angeles, declined to comment on specific cases but confirmed that lack of funds and unfilled vacancies caused delays in some investigations [...]
People with knowledge of the case said that by the time the investigation stalled in December 2006, it had branched out into other areas, including Mr. Lewis's June 2003 role in passing legislation that helped giant hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management. People associated with Cerberus around the same time gave at least $140,000 to a political action committee controlled by Mr. Lewis. Cerberus officials didn't respond to phone calls or emailed questions concerning the Lewis inquiry [...]
After the lead prosecutor in the Lewis case quit, others assigned to the case took time getting up to speed. Brian Hershman, a former deputy chief of the Los Angeles office's public corruption section, declined to comment on specific cases, but confirms that his group's work overall was derailed by the departure of experienced prosecutors. Like several others, he says he left for more money to support his family.
Replacements "are mostly rookies," he says. "It will be some time before they'll be able to restore the section to what it was before."
With additional funds recently made available by Congress, the Los Angeles office has filled 12 of 57 lawyer vacancies and is expecting an additional 12 lawyers to start soon. To jump-start the Lewis investigation, Mr. Cardona, the interim U.S. attorney, in June called on a veteran prosecutor, Michael Emmick, to revive and supervise the investigation, people with knowledge of the investigation say.
Day late and a dollar short on that one, I'd gather. This is approaching criminal conduct by the Justice Department. At a time when the investigation was expanding, Debra Wong Yang (the US Attorney for the region) suddenly jumped ship for the law firm representing Lewis. You can bet they never lacked funds; Yang received nearly $1.5 million. The law firm, Gibson Dunn, took the top assistant off the case as well. So the LA office was thrown into disarray precisely when the investigation was heating up, and the money for the office dried up at the same time. Pathetic. With or without Alberto Gonzales, we still have a DoJ protecting its own and politicized beyond control. And this is the time when Democratic leaders are seeking to call off the dogs in the US Attorney case?
