Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
The newest member of Congress could be among the most adversely affected by new political maps currently being considered by the state's redistricting commission.
Democratic Congresswoman-elect Janice Hahn of San Pedro could find herself in a new district that runs along the coast from the South Bay to Malibu, and stretching inland to grab parts of West Los Angeles and Beverly Hills. Much of that district is currently represented by Rep. Henry Waxman. The other option for Hahn is a Long Beach district that has none of her South Bay political base and also includes two other Democratic incumbents -- Reps. Linda Sanchez and Laura Richardson.
Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell, who has been actively monitoring the redistricting process, says Hahn could be "in serious trouble."
"She's losing the seat that she just won," Mitchell said.
Mitchell says that under new working maps released by the commission this week, the number of Latino seats in Los Angeles is likely to increase, while one of the basin's three African American congressional seats could disappear.
Here's what happened: The California Citizen's Redistricting Commission just released a third version of their "visioning" maps for Congressional and State Assembly Districts. And as indicated above, these new maps are radically different from anything we've seen before.
There are three different proposed versions of CA-36. Depending on which option you chose, our newly-elected Congresswoman Janice Hahn could end up sharing her district with Henry Waxman, or she could even end up outside the district. All of the options include everything from Malibu to Rancho Palos Verdes, while cutting the Beach Cities - Redondo, Manhattan, Hermosa and Torrance - in half just west of the 405 freeway.
To see more detailed congressional maps, go to this link, type in your home address, then go to the "Select District" pull-down menu, and select "congress la opt1, opt2, or opt3"
The new Assembly districts in Southern California aren't much better. My Assembly district, AD53, is now partially divided into three separate districts, with Venice as the nexus. Which means that Venice - 1 square mile wide - could potentially be represented by THREE different Assembly members.
To see the new Assembly map, Go to this link, type in your home address, then go to the "Select District" pull-down menu, and select "assembly la opt1"
So now what? The final district maps are slated to be released July 28, according to a press release, and adopted by the commission on Aug. 15. So you still have time to make your voice heard.
The Commission needs to hear from you. Send an email to votersfirstact@crc.ca.gov and let them know what you think.
Be sure to put down where you live so they know you're a constituent.
Yesterday's victory by Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn in the special election for Congressional District 36 has set the musical chairs rolling once again, as Democratic Assemblymember Warren Furutani, who represents the 55th District, declared his intention to run for the impending vacancy. Via email release from Parke Skelton:
(LOS ANGELES) Quickly following Councilwoman Janice Hahn's victory for Congress in the special election yesterday, Warren Furutani wasted no time in announcing his plans to run for City Council.
"I was born in San Pedro and have lived in the 15th Council District for almost 20 years," said Furutani. "I'm an LA guy and I'm very excited at the opportunity to work closely with the community on important issues like job creation, gang prevention, education, transportation, air quality and improving the great neighborhoods of San Pedro, Watts, Wilmington, Harbor City and the Harbor Gateway."
Furutani began his career in Los Angeles as a community organizer during the civil rights movement. He later worked as a counselor at one of the toughest continuation high schools for dropouts in Downtown LA to keep at-risk kids out of gangs and in school.
Per the release, Asm. Furutani currently represents approximately 30 percent of the turf that is Council District 15. If successful, Furutani would join fellow former Assemblymembers Paul Koretz (District 5) and Paul Krekorian (District 2) on the Los Angeles City Council. While going from the Assembly to a City Council would normally seem like a downgrade, Los Angeles is a distinct exception for several reasons, in no particular order: 1) the pay is substantially better; 2) City Hall is a much easier commute than Sacramento; 3) more authority over similar turf; and 4) members of the City Council are only term-limited out after three four-year terms without the threat of being redistricted out since the Council controls redistricting.
In Furutani's case he would get nearly 14 years on the City Council should be be successful, since Janice Hahn's unexpired term would not count against his term limit. Not a bad way to end a legislative career. As of yet, no dates have been set for a special election, as Janice Hahn has not formally resigned her Council seat.
I was born a Democrat, I was raised a Democrat, and when I am elected to Congress, I will never forget that I'm a Democrat," said Councilwoman Janice Hahn. "I grew up learning early on about Democratic values-my dad, former Los Angeles County Supervisor Kenny Hahn taught me about civil rights, equality, and the importance of the middle class. When I go to Congress I pledge to stand up for these Democratic values and be a fighter for the people of the 36th Congressional District."
Hahn's new persona isn't just limited to TV advertising either. More over the flip.
The racist attack video directed at LA Councilwoman Janice Hahn, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming special election in California's 36th Congressional district, is based on a thoroughly discredited three-year-old TV report on the local FOX affiliate, KTTV, which is owned and operated by the network.
While admitting the ad was offensive, TPM reports, the National Republican Congressional Committee said the ad made a good point, linking to the KTTV report as if it hadn't been totally discredited within a matter of weeks over three years ago, as the newspaper I work for, Random Lengths Newsreported at the time.
The FOX report, by Chris Blatchford, aired on KTTV on April 30, 2008, and was systematically debunked by reporter Gene Maddaus in the Daily Breeze on May 14, 2008. The Breeze is a suburban Republican newspaper that is generally critical of Hahn, but has some excellent reporters.
Summarizing his findings, Maddaus wrote, "a review of the Fox 11 News story found major flaws that undermine its central allegations. Most notably, records and interviews show that the gang intervention workers identified in the report have not received city funding. Additionally, a convicted rapist was wrongly identified as a gang intervention worker, and Hahn was mistakenly accused of providing funds directly to gang workers."
The sole piece of hard evidence presented by FOX connecting Hahn to the rapist, Steven Myrick, was a routine certificate for participating in a summer jobs program in 2004, a year before the gang task force was organized, and two years before his rape arrest. This was surrounded by Myrick's own self-serving puffery about how connected he was--standard-issue BS that no reporter worth his salt would rely on without substantial corroboration, which FOX did not have. In fact, the evidence Maddaus dug up showed that Myrick was simply lying.
I received this in my e-mail today and present it as a public service:
Friends,
I have great news! Over the weekend, Governor Jerry Brown, Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom, Congressional Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the California Democratic Party and a host of other Democratic Leaders have thrown their support behind my campaign for Congress. These great leaders share my commitment to ending the wars overseas, investing in our communities at home and creating sustainable, green jobs. They know what it will take to get it done, and they know I'm the right person to represent this district.
What you're about to read won't be an exercise in sour grapes.
The candidate I supported, Debra Bowen, lost fair and square to a better-funded candidate with far more institutional support and a well thought-out strategic path to victory.
Janice Hahn is unequivocally our best choice now to represent us in CA-36.
Her competitor, Tea Party Republican Craig Huey, is a nasty piece of work. Fortunately for us, Janice Hahn and our union allies have the resources to make sure he won't get elected in 2011.
However, 2012, after CA-36 is redistricted, might be a different story altogether. That's why I'm writing this final piece on the election.
To better understand what might happen in 2012, I first need to tell you how we got here, and how Janice Hahn's strategic choices, coupled with Marcy Winograd's ego, may have created a perfect storm in which to bring a previously unknown Tea Party candidate to national prominence.
When Jane Harman resigned from Congress earlier this year, voters were quickly presented with a daunting choice, as candidates from all over the political spectrum entered the race to replace her.
But for many of us, the choice was clear - we needed someone with conviction, who was principled and not beholden to special interests. We needed Debra Bowen.
And over the last couple of months, I've seen something remarkable, something I haven't seen since the Obama campaign. Hundreds of volunteers taking time out of their busy lives to phone bank and canvass week after week for Debra. These aren't paid contractors or City Hall insiders making a political calculus, these are our friends and neighbors taking an ownership stake in Debra's campaign and an ownership stake in their community's future.
So instead of telling you yet again why I support Debra Bowen, I thought I'd turn the floor over to them.
Meet my friends and neighbors who will be supporting Debra on Tuesday.
Debra Bowen has the intelligence, the passion and the integrity to not only be a strong advocate for our district in Washington, but to be a national leader for the Democratic Party. I know she will work tirelessly to defend the environment and bring green jobs to our district, because she always has. We are home to several of the largest US Aerospace/Defense contractors (Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon). Debra knows that resolving our problems will require sound, balance approaches based in facts and data so that everyone in our community participates in an economic recovery. That's why, on May 17th, I'll be voting for Debra Bowen for Congress.
- Tony Salvaggio (aeorospace engineer) Manhattan Beach, CA
I have known Debra personally since the mid 1980s. She has proven herself to be forthright, honest and a damned hard worker for us, her constituents, when she represented us as Assembly member and then in the State Senate. She will do the same in the US Congress. There are many stories that could be told to support my statement. I want to keep this story short. Sufficient to say that I gave more money than I could afford to her campaign and I would follow her lead to the moon.
- Challis McPherson (retired), Venice, CA
Debra Bowen was the first Democrat I ever voted for after switching parties in 1992. She has always been a strong advocate for LGBT rights, before it was the popular thing, and as a gay man that is very important to me. But the main reason I support her is because she is one of the very few politicians that truly have the political courage to take a position on an issue and have the conviction to vote accordingly. I know she will not be influenced by polls and special interests that throw money around and expect favors! The best example of this courage is how she handled the voting machine crisis in CA when she first became SOS. Even though the state had already spent $45 million on voting machines, she had the courage to stand up and say these Diebold voting machines are vunerable to fraud and decertfied them. For this she has earned my respect and vote!
- Varo Asorian (small business owner), Torrance, CA
As Secretary of State she has proved herself to be a sensible, no nonsense progressive who had clear and achievable goals, stuck to them and got them done. I have been continually impressed with Debra's commitment to improve government transparency and access. After 14 years in the California legislature, she has the legislative experience and knowledge to navigate congressional politics successfully. She will work on behalf of our district with thoughtfulness and compassion, but also with a keen understanding of how to move legislation forward to achieve success.
- Kim Drobny (community organizer), Mar Vista, CA
As an educator, I have been a teacher, principal, district administrator, and director of a statewide early literacy project. I am also a parent of a student who attended public schools from K-16. Debra Bowen has led efforts to create smaller class size in K-12 schools and also supported our community college and state university systems. I am so grateful that Debra Bowen understands the importance of public education for our future, supports parent involvement, and most importantly, understands the importance for teachers and principals to be trained to provide the best education.
- Dianne Wallace (educator), Manhattan Beach, CA
From her very first campaign, that being for the State Assembly in 1992, Debra had environmental credentials before anyone else was even bothering. Besides living an earth-friendly lifestyle herself, she had already been offering her legal services pro-bono to "Heal the Bay." For the 19-years she has held elected office, I have always known that I could trust her to sponsor and support cutting-edge environmental legislation and to be there for her constituents when a solar project or other earth-friendly measure called for her support.
- Dency Nelson (Sierra Club member), Hermosa Beach, CA
As a transportation advocate, it's very clear to me that Debra Bowen is the person for the job. You need someone who recognizes that war spending is an problem, and represents tremendous diversion of our nation's resources away from constructive uses that we're in dire need of - like building real sustainable and function transportation. You need someone with an eye for policy details, who can delve into the nitty gritty and come back with victory. And you need someone who can work against their short term political interests to gain long term victories that better all of us. Bowen is all of those, and outrageously experienced to boot.
- Alex Thompson (president, Bikeside LA) Del Rey, CA
I am voting for Debra Bowen for Congress because she is very smart, a proven thinker and problem solver, self proclaimed "policy wonk and techie" whom I trust most to serve our district as a US Representative during very difficult times. I have worked with Bowen and our neighbors to prevent a massive Century City sized development in Venice and to keep the local emergency hospital open. As Secretary of State, she prevented possible wide-spead voter fraud in CA by banning insecure voting machines. I was honored to be present when she was presented with the "Profiles in Courage" Award at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston by Senator Ted and Caroline Kennedy and I will be even proudere to have her represent me in Congress.
- Linda Lucks (neighborhood council president), Venice, CA
Note by Brian: People, stopping tossing out Troll ratings for comments that you simply disagree with. There are other ratings to use for comments, and frankly, the ratings should be used as a grading on quality and sincerity of the post, not on whether you agree with it. So, I'll be uprating a few comments, but please, think before you rate.
The mailer starts out with the word WARNING bolded in yellow against a black background, then goes on to say, "Beware of Debra Bowen's Negative Campaign! Unable to find anything positive to say and desperate to win at all costs, Debra Bowen has been falsely attacking Janice Hahn and Marcy Winograd!"
The mailer then goes on "remind" voters that Bowen was "a lifelong Republican until she changed registration before she ran for office", and lists a number contributions Bowen received in 1998 and 2000 from energy and health insurance companies. Hahn also goes out of her way to portray Winograd favorably in a contrast and compare section in the midsection of the piece.
Those are the basics. Now let's deconstruct this a bit.
First of all, this mailer isn't an independent expenditure from an outside group, it comes directly from the Hahn campaign, which means Janice Hahn not only knows about the mailer, she had to approve the content.
Secondly, it's highly misleading in some respects, and plainly false in others. Here's why.
It's just flat out weird that Hahn would claim Bowen was running a negative campaign against her and Winograd. Of the five campaign mailers I've received from Bowen's campaign so far, two featured Bowen's "Profile in Courage" award for her work as Secretary of State, one featured her endorsement by the Sierra Club, and two highlighted her 14 years of experience representing most of CA-36 in the CA state legislature. None even mentioned Hahn or Winograd. In debates and forums where all three candidates have appeared, Bowen rarely mentions either candidate by name.
There are only two times I can think of when Bowen ever came close to going negative (on Hahn, not Winograd). The first time was at the CA-36 endorsement meeting in April, when Bowen pointed out Hahn had endorsed Republican candidates - this after Hahn dinged Bowen for not being "a life long Democrat" (a charge Hahn repeats in her attack mailer). The second time was last Sunday during a Daily Kos interview, when Bowen was asked to compare and contrast her campaign contributions with that of her opponents. Bowen's campaign manager and press person have made similar statements highlighting Hahn's contributions from LA City Hall lobbyists, contributions the LA Weekly pointed out would actually be illegal if Hahn were running for LA City Council and not Congress.
But when it comes to Winograd, the only Democrat in this campaign to go negative on the candidate was Janice Hahn, who slammed Winograd in a letter urging Bowen to sign on to a pledge supporting Israel. In the letter, Hahn quoted Henry Waxman who said "In Marcy Winograd's vision, Jews would be at the mercy of those who do not respect democracy or human rights."
The last week of a campaign, as our mailbox fills to overflowing with glossy brochures extolling the virtues of competing candidates, we often find ourselves donning black, rending our garments, and contemplating the death of a million innocent trees.
The campaign to replace Jane Harman in CA-36 is no different.
Spread out on my coffee table right now are a couple of mailers from Debra Bowen, one from Marcy Winograd that a volunteer stuffed under our welcome mat, one from Mike Gin, and even one from Tea Party candidate Craig Huey. However, none of these candidates holds a candle to Janice Hahn and her supporters, who sent out a thirteenth full-color mailer today.
According to the FEC, Hahn leads all candidates but Craig Huey in cash-on-hand (money left in the bank after expenses), and that's enabled her to fund this juggernaut-in-wood-pulp with over $300,000 in donations and independent expenditures from business interests and lobbyists connected with LA City Hall, real estate developers,the nuclear industry,health insurance PACs, and even rent control opponents.
Combing though the latest FEC reports, I found a number of interesting nuggets, but one recent donation worth noting in particular was from Tim Larkin, CEO of Warren Resources.
Why this donation? Because Warren Resources, a New York City-based oil company with considerable ties to the Wilmington and Harbor area oil fields, was a vocal critic of Measure O,the oil extraction tax Hahn opposed putting on the ballot after initially supporting it. In the end, Hahn was the only LA City council member to vote against bringing the measure to voters, saying at the time,"I've reconsidered this and I have heard from various business groups who do feel like this might be the wrong climate to put this on the ballot."
Butler has endorsed Debra Bowen in this congressional race.
According to FEC reports, Janice Hahn is the only candidate so far to benefit from independent expenditures.
It's likely to get worse before it gets better. I've heard rumors CAPC is planning to send out a negative hit-piece against Bowen this week, just as they did Butler, and that Hahn will be taking a page out of the Meg Whitman campaign, sending out yet another 20-30 page full-color brochure to voters for the general election.
But hey, there's good news too. According to the Sierra Club (who've endorsed Debra Bowen), it turns out all those mailers are recyclable.
In solidarity with California teachers sitting-in in Sacramento, I sent out the following press release earlier today:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, May 6, 2011
Contact: Campaign Press Office (916) 996-9170 Marcy@WinogradforCongress.com
CAPITOL OCCUPATION: Congressional Candidate & Teacher Endorses Emergency
Actions; Marcy Winograd to Use Campaign Phone Bank to 'Save our Schools'
VENICE - Marcy Winograd, a public high school teacher and congressional
candidate (CA-36) will use her campaign phone bank to support the California Teachers
Association "State of Emergency" week of action, May 9-13, at the State
Capitol and across the state.
I proudly stand with Veterans For Peace-LA in signing the organization's Declaration to defund the Iraq/Afghanistan wars, except to bring our troops home safely. To keep our troops in harm's way, to spend 2 - billion dollars a week on these occupations is a war on America's middle class. We have money for bombs, but not for books - as 5,000 teachers in Los Angeles receive lay - off notices and community colleges close their summer school programs.
I ask my opponents Janice Hahn and Debra Bowen to reconsider their decision not to sign the Declaration. Congress has the power of the purse, which it exercised to finally end the Vietnam War after an estimated 60,000 American soldiers and millions of Vietnamese lost their lives.
Let's not wait for the death toll in Iraq and Afghanistan to climb any higher. This week Veterans For Peace-LA carried coffins in downtown Los Angeles as the number of U.S. soldiers lost in Iraq/Afghanistan reached 6,000.
We do not know how many Iraqis or Afghan troops and civilians have died because the Pentagon does not keep a record.
We must protect our troops. Bring them home. Spread this Declaration throughout the land - and ask every congressional candidate to sign it.
Rather than ask you to sign a pledge, I thought I would simply request your assistance in the ILWU struggle for union recognition at Rite Aid. I've written a letter to the corporate headquarters, explaining why I support the union's boycott and urging the company to respect collective bargaining rights.
Please join me and rank and file ILWU members at the harbor in boycotting this store and urging your supporters to do likewise. Together, we can condemn all anti-union rhetoric and lend our support to workers living in fear of employer retribution. As my ILWU brothers and sisters remind us, "An injury to one is an injury to all," so let us be staunch advocates of self-determination at the workplace.
I'm as outraged as you are about the latest Republican attacks on Medicare and Social Security. Yes, the gloves are off, with the GOP leadership declaring open warfare on America's greatest safety nets for seniors.
We need Democrats in Congress who are going to stand strong against these Republican attacks. Now that Blue Dog Jane Harman has vacated her seat in southern California, we have an opportunity to send a progressive to Washington. Please contribute securely at Winograd for Congress at Act Blue to help elect me on May 17th in a special election in the 36th congressional district. Once we get to Washington, we can organize a Save Medicare & Social Security Caucus to go head-to-head with the GOP leadership determined to destroy government for the common good.
I have a confession to make: I am not a lifelong Democrat. I did not wear a "Tiny Democrat" onesie while my dad marched with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. My mom did not take me to CR groups. Admittedly, I think it would have been pretty fascinating to be that kid...but I wasn't.
Instead, I grew up in a conservative, Midwestern Catholic family, and I was instilled with a deep commitment to the ideas of family, faith, and freedom. My dad was the first generation in his family to go to college, and my mom was a homemaker who welcomed us home from school and made dinner every night. My faith shaped my commitment to treat others as I would want to be treated, and to be of service to those who are oppressed and in most need. My grandfathers served in WWII, and my uncles served in Vietnam and Korea, so I developed great respect for the service and sacrifice so many generations have made for my American freedoms.
Debra Bowen's Enron Connections and CA's $40 Billion+ losses due to Energy Deregulation.
Debra Bowen's Enron connections & various Energy Company Investments matter to me, to my family, to Venice, to CD36 (Jane Harman's old seat) and to California. Why? Debra Bowen voted in 1996 to de-regulate the CA energy industry, passing on the costs of the dangerous Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant to the ratepayer. During the energy crisis, when Bowen chaired the Senate Energy Committee, she took money from Enron and refused to support re-regulating the energy industry. She also has invested in and is currently invested in energy company shares (e.g., General Electric & Provident Energy (see below)).
Today we get an idea of what kind of support that endorsement translates into with this personal appeal from DFA's founder, Governor Howard Dean. Hoping to help boost Bowen's fundraising totals before the March 31st end-of-quarter reporting deadline, Dean asks his DFA membership to contribute to the campaign's Act Blue page.
I helped organize this event with the Courage Campaign.
In case you hadn't heard, there's an election heating up in California's 36 Congressional district, as Jane Harman has unexpectedly retired. The "primary" election is coming up in mid-May, so this is something of a sprint now.
Well, now you have the chance to hear about the candidates straight from the horses' mouths. On Thursday evening, 6-7:30, the Courage Campaign is hosting a candidate forum (with a boost from yours truly) with four major candidates for the seat: Democratic Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Republican Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin, Democratic LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, and Democratic educator Marcy Winograd.
You can also submit questions at #Courage36 on twitter and on the Facebook event page. If you are interested in one of the most interesting races, well, check it out on Thursday night.
It's important to note that Act Blue accounts for only a portion of a candidate's fundraising efforts (I've heard estimates of anywhere from 10% to 30%), but as an indicator of fundraising progress I think it's probably pretty representative of where the candidates are in relation to one another.
There's a couple of things I take away from this. First, Hahn has half the donor base of Bowen, but their pockets are far deeper. In the last 24 hours alone, 2 donors were responsible for $7,500 in donations to Hahn's campaign.
Secondly, Winograd's campaign this cycle is far different than her campaign against Harman in 2010. In that campaign, she raised nearly $90,000 from 3,182 supporters.
Winograd and her supporters may have a heavy presence on the California Progressive Caucus listserves, Twitter, and the comment sections of blogs this election cycle, but their passion has yet to translate into real world results.
Meanwhile, up to 19 candidates have filed so far for the CA-36 race, including our first Tea Party candidate, Republican Craig Huey, who announced his candidacy at a dinner meeting of the the South Bay Open Carry movement.
The number of candidates pretty much guarantees no one candidate will succeed in winning the May 17th election outright. Under the new "top two" primary election rules, if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the votes, the top two voter-getters will advance to a July 12th election. If the Act Blue numbers are any indication, it's looking more and more likely that those candidates with be Debra Bowen and Janice Hahn.
Hopefully, you're already on board supporting Debra Bowen as the next representative for the 36th Cong. District in California in the seat that Jane Harman quit from just a couple weeks ago. (If you're not yet familiar with Debra Bowen and why she's worth supporting, take a look here: "Why Debra Bowen") The Governor today set the election date May 17, just two short months from now. (If no one gets over 50% of the votes cast, then the top two will go head-to-head in a July 12 election.)
This diary isn't going to be asking you to donate to her campaign (although there's an Actblue page for Kossacks to show support here). Instead of asking you to give money - which, sadly, is a limited resource - I'm going to ask you to donate (in a way) something more valuable which paradoxically you may have an endless supply of: Weekend Minutes!
Repeating 
The last week of a campaign, as our mailbox fills to overflowing with glossy brochures extolling the virtues of competing candidates, we often find ourselves donning black, rending our garments, and contemplating the death of a million innocent trees.
