(Low-turnout primaries are really tricky things. And it's so hard to run a traditional grassroots campaign in California. This is a pretty amazing story, and ties in to what I was talking about below. - promoted by David Dayen)
Well, one thing's for sure: Democrats are tired of big business and the insurance industry. So much so, in fact, that Democrats in CA-24 elected to vote in landslide numbers for Marta Jorgensen, a candidate who did little traditional campaigning to speak of--including, apparently, not even purchasing the state voter file--simply on the basis of the ballot designation "educator".
The Democratic primary race in CA-24 to challenge perennial do-nothing Republican Elton Gallegly was a 3-way contest between progressive favorite Mary Pallant, the previous Democratic contestant Jill Martinez, and political neophyte Marta Jorgensen.
The outcome of this race is difficult for me to write about, as I was very enthusiastic about Mary's campaign: her progressive stances on issues from Iraq to healthcare to accountability for the Bush Administration are all very attractive, and of the three candidates, she is by far the most charismatic and hard-nosed. She also knows exactly what it takes to run a good campaign, and it was something of an open secret in the local political scene that Elton Gallegly was very nervous about having to face her in November. I was so impressed with Mary (and still am) that I signed on to become to her volunteer Netroots Outreach Coordinator. But in a low-turnout election, the strangest things can happen.
Disclaimer: I volunteer as the Netroots Outreach Coordinator for the Mary Pallant Campaign
Mary Pallant's campaign (which I have written about here, here, here and elsewhere) got a big new boost today: the endorsement of progressive CA State Senator Sheila Kuehl.
• I thought I'd have time to put together a monthly roundup for May, but it never came together, and the primary is going to change those analyses a bit, so I'll put something out after the primaries.
• I have to correct an error. On Saturday I wrote that Marta Jorgensen had dropped out of the race in CA-24. She had, but she recently got back into the race and is focusing on turning out new voters in Northern Santa Barbara County around Lompoc. This is a crucial effort to activate Hispanic voters who traditionally have not turned out, and I both salute Ms. Jorgensen for her efforts and apologize for the error. Hopefully she can visit Calitics and fill us in on that effort up in Lompoc.
• Doug Ose has loaned his campaign another $600,000 in the waning days before the GOP primary against Tom McClintock in CA-04. This primary now exceeds $4 million dollars, and it's hard to spend that much in that district. McClintock pulled out of a debate earlier this week, and there was the Pete Wilson savaging as well. Reading the tea leaves, I don't think Ose would make that extra investment if he wasn't close to nailing this down, but I could be wrong.
"Lungren's behavior is disgusting. He claims to be a leader in ethics reform, then he turns around and subverts House ethics rules. This is just one of many examples of Lungren's hypocrisy [...] The people of the 3rd Congressional District deserve better representation than a career politician like Dan Lungren who sells out to special interests. I've been caring for the people of our district for over 25 years as an emergency physician. I believe we have an emergency in our government. I'm running for Congress to help restore government of, by, and for the people."
I like it. Durston is trying to put up a big number in the June 3 primary, despite running unopposed, to show his strength in this challenge.
• And it's not primary-related, but I think we have the first ever Calitics mention in the LA Times in this story about Laura Richardson. Hey guys, you could have used my name, it's right above the title....
UPDATE (by Brian): I have said before that some of the IEs have really angered me. It seems that at least a couple of these annoying IEs have something in common: EdVoice. Chris Cabaldon's former lobbying organization employer has been quite busy this year. In SD-23, they have the cheezy "Carbon-neutral voting" mailers. In AD-8, EdVoice has gone all in for their former CEO, Cabaldon. Randy Bayne has the story on a negative mailer on Mariko Yamada for supporting vocational education for mentally retarded Californians. Not cool.
I'll have another House roundup probably by Monday, but I wanted to toss out a few items of note:
• CA-26: I have to applaud Russ Warner's rapid response team for jumping on David Dreier's voting record immediately and choosing the issues where he can reveal that Dreier is not the moderate he portrays as being to his district. On the heels of yesterday's House vote on the GI Bill, Warner released this:
David Dreier voted against a bill to increase educational opportunities for veterans today. The legislation expands the education benefits veterans receive under the GI bill to restore the promise of a full, four-year college education. It passed the House with broad bi-partisan support, 256 to 166.
"I would have voted differently on this bill," said Russ Warner, a successful small businessman and the Democratic candidate for Congress from California's 26th district. "It's important to make the veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan part of an American economic recovery, just like the veterans of World War II were. They put their lives on the line for us, and deserve to be able to come home and go to school if they so choose. We need new leaders with new priorities in Washington, and that's why I'm running for Congress."
Russ Warner's eldest son, Greg, is in the U.S. Army and served in Iraq for 17 months. Upon his return, he challenged his father to make a difference by running for Congress.
Down With Tyranny has more, including a great pic of Warner and his son Greg.
• CA-41: Please take some time to read IndieinSF's piece introducing the community to Dr. Rita Ramirez-Dean, a progressive candidate running for slimebucket Jerry Lewis' seat in the San Bernardino area. It's also linked at DWT. The post talks about the picture on the ground and the changing demographics in the district. Our growth potential in California is dependent on winning seats like this. I've met Dr. Dean and found her to be someone of character. She has also endorsed the Repsonsible Plan To End The War in Iraq, elements of which passed through the House yesterday (Rep. Jay Inslee of Washington even mentioned it on the House floor).
• CA-42: Next week, Ron Shepston has two fundraisers with Amb. Joseph Wilson. One is in Oak Canyon Park near Irvine on Wednesday, May 21, (purchase tickets here), and one is in Santa Monica on Thursday, May 22 (info here). Ron also snagged the endorsement of DFA Orange County.
• CA-04: Try to get the logic of this: by taking welfare payments in per diem checks from the state, Tom McClintock was denying benefits to soldiers. That's the premise of Doug Ose's new ad. Quite a logical leap, but potentially effective.
(While we're celebrating equal marriage rights for all Californians, why not listen to one of California's progressive Congressional candidates hold court on the issues? - promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))
Full disclosure: I serve as a the (volunteer) Netroots Coordinator for the Mary Pallant campaign
If we learned nothing else from Travis Childers' incredible victory in the R+10 MS-01, it is that all but the verry most conservative Republican House seats are in play and winnable this election cycle. Democrats who may not have had a legitimate shot in other election years have a decent shot of taking over otherwise impossible districts this year.
What that also means is that many Democrats in swing districts that are trending blue may actually be favored to win this year--even if they're not technically on the front radars of organizations like Blue Majority or the DCCC's Red to Blue list. Of course, demographics aren't everything: the candidates themselves have to be capable, determined and charismatic.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
(While all eyes are on Pennsylvania today, let's not forget about the Congress that will ensure the effectiveness of our next Democratic President. - promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))
As most of us progressives sit on pins and needles helplessly watchful on the eve of the eagerly awaited Pennsylvania primary, I want to ask you for your help. I have often written in support of Barack Obama, but tonight there is little I or other Obama supporters can do to help Obama.
What we can do, however, is support Democrats looking to fulfill Obama's vision: expand the map, compete everywhere against the Republicans, stand unabashedly for Democratic values, and win in races that we should win, but that no one thought possible before.
Here in Ventura where I live, we have just such a Democrat, and her name is Mary Pallant.
(I was happy to co-host this event last night. After a day where there was a lot of sturm und drang among the grassroots, what I remember about this week is the incredible events I've been fortunate enough to witness, both with Tim Goodrich and last night with Darcy Burner. The grassroots is strong when we are all working for incredible candidates who can bring about progressive change. - promoted by David Dayen)
I met Darcy Burner for the second time last night.
It was pretty exciting, meeting a future president. If you have to ask why I would say that, why, then, you haven't had the pleasure of meeting Darcy Burner.
(Excellent news to hear all of these CA Congressional Candidates lining up behind the Responsible Plan. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
As a responsible citizen and congressional candidate I have decided to endorse the Responsible Plan to end the occupation of Iraq. This plan encompasses more than withdrawal from Iraq: it addresses other imperative issues that have arisen as a result of our invasion. Iraq is one of the worst foreign policy debacles in the history of our nation and has resulted in far more devastating consequences beyond Iraq. The Responsible Plan is a responsible course of action with steps to be taken that we as a nation must embrace in order to ensure that when we leave Iraq we restore more than Iraq.
Many of our troops may have avoided death in Samarra, but the only way we can avoid future deaths is withdraw and then follow a course that will avoid steering us down the same path that led us to pre-emptive war. We begin to reverse the terrible fate we have inflicted on the Iraqi people, our military, and our standing in the world by leaving Iraq, instituting diplomacy, and instilling humanitarian aid for Iraqi civilians and refugees.
Our mission to accomplish is to urge our Congress to sign on to the Responsible Plan to end the occupation, replace our troops with diplomats, restore Habeas Corpus and work to restore our 4th Estate, the media, to the independent watchdog it needs to be.
I therefore heartily endorse the Responsible Plan and look forward to joining forces with other candidates who have embraced and endorsed this plan.
(As a friend of both Mary and David, I couldn't be happier to see them teaming up and bringing a progressive message to Ventura County. - promoted by David Dayen)
Hello Calitics! My name is David Atkins--though most of you probably know me better on the blogs as thereisnospoon. I'm writing today on behalf of Mary Pallant, the candidate I believe is best-suited to take CA-24 by storm and turn this district a bright shade of Progressive blue! I've had several meetings with Mary over the last few years, and she has impressed me greatly with her tough-mindedness, can-do spirit, strong knowledge of the issues, organizational prowess, and personal charisma and charm. I believe in Mary and her ability to win this seat--and now that I live and work in Ventura County, I've signed on to be the Netroots Coordinator for her campaign. From now until November, you'll see Mary and I posting under this account to give you updates on the progress of our campaign to get rid of Elton Gallegly, one of the worst rubber-stamp Republicans in the Congress.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
This is actually a pretty important weekend for Congressional and legislative Democratic candidates across California. State party delegates will get together tonight and Saturday in pre-endorsement conferences to vote whether or not to endorse particular candidates for the June primary elections. There's been a lot of organizing to woo delegates into endorsing one candidate or another, even in races where there is no opponent. Every delegate gets one vote in Congressional districts, Senate districts and Assembly districts, based on where they live. These endorsements become the official Democratic Party endorsement if a candidate receives 70% of the vote (If a candidate gets between 50 and 70 percent, it goes to caucuses at the state party convention in two weeks). UPDATE: That's the short version; the long version is below.
And then their names get sent out on all Democratic mailers, and that's not a little thing. Endorsed party candidates are in a very strong position. It doesn't mean the voters won't have their say, but it's a big help. In fact, there's a credible argument to be made that the party shouldn't endorse one Democrat over another in a primary. But that's the system we have now.
Throughout the weekend, it'd be good to hear from those party officials and delegates with reports on who, if anyone, received endorsements in the various districts. I'm particularly interested in AD-80, AD-78, SD-03, and some of the Congressional seats with multiple candidates like CA-24 and CA-42, among others.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.
I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
We have 15 months to go before Election Day, and it's time for another roundup of Congressional races. I am going to continue to focus on the top 10 challenges to Republican incumbents. There is certainly a concern in CA-11 with the Jerry McNerney/Dean Andal race, particularly after McNerney's "I'm a moderate" comment seemed to depress supporters. On the bright side, he did vote against the ridiculous FISA bill. And as we go into September, I would hope he would continue his efforts to end the occupation of Iraq. I will certainly cover the McNerney race in future roundups.
But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
With 16 months to go before Election Day, some Democratic challengers are getting a little more visible in their efforts to unseat Republican incumbents. I see good news at the very top of the target list, and elsewhere we're still waiting to see who will run. Let's focus on the top 10 races where a Republican is currently serving, knowing that we are still going to have a fight in CA-11 to re-elect Jerry McNerney (although that probably won't be against Guy Houston, who may be on trial for fraud at the time).
So let's take a look at the top 10 challenges. I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also adding the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
The LA Times writes a story about a possible challenge in CA-24, one of the few Congressional districts in the state which is somewhat purple (registration is 44-34 Republican, but with a lot of DTS votes), by a big-name Democratic opponent.
For months now, Democratic activists have been urging Ventura lawyer Richard Francis to run next year for the seat held by Elton Gallegly, Ventura County's longtime Republican congressman.
Last week I ran down the unused money from last year's unopposed and underopposed California members of Congress. It was a long list. 22 districts held by Democrats fielded no Republican challenger who met a very low bar of fundraising legitimacy. Really not impressive, but really not surprising either. So what about the flipside? How did Democrats do in going after Republicans?
Democrats left only one California seat unopposed, and failed to raise money in one other. Of the 21 Republican-held seats, only 4 qualified as as unopposed or underopposed (challenger raising less than $25,000). It suggests two things to me. One, Democrats are already doing a pretty good job of funding candidates in red districts (although there's still room to improve of course), and two, that strong funding only goes so far given the way these districts are drawn. So as I would be cautioning anyways, fundraising is only one piece of the puzzle. It still takes the right candidate in the right context.
Surprisingly enough, considering it's 17 months out, there's actually been some measure of news in the California delegation, most of it pretty good for Democrats. Let's take a look at the top pickup opportunities for Democrats, as well as the top hold races. We'll start with the seats that may be contested (there are only two):
1) CA-37: Not technically a contested seat, but this is the open seat vacated by the late Juanita Millender-McDonald, which will have an open primary on June 26 and a general election (if nobody gets 50%) a couple months thereafter. There are debates this week (Friday) and next (June 14), but so far this has been a battle of endorsements. The CA Democratic Party and the League of Conservation Voters have backed State Senator Jenny Oropeza; the Legislative Black Caucus and the CA Federation of Labor of LA County have backed Assemblywoman Laura Richardson. I do believe that Richardson's endorsements probably mean more on the ground; of course, there's also Millender-McDonald's daughter, Valerie McDonald, who some believe will "split the black vote" and hand the primary to Oropeza. This is a very safe Democratic seat, so the winner of the primary on the Democratic side is all but assured to be the next Congressman.
2) CA-11 (McNerney): Antiwar advocates were pleased with Rep. McNerney's vote on the Iraq funding bill. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal has announced that he'll run for the seat. Obviously, the first re-elect is the toughest, so McNerney will have a fight on his hands here, whether against Andal or somebody else. However, I don't think that attacking McNerney by attacking Nancy Pelosi, which the NRCC has done in recent radio ads, is going to work, considering the Speaker is more popular than Bush as well as previous House Speakers like Newt Gingrich.
