Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
Former Lt. Gov. makes suspicious loans to his Congressional campaign
by Brian Leubitz
You would assume that Abel Maldonado would have preferred to be lapping up the nothingness that Gavin Newsom is currently enjoying. But that LG race didn't turn out like he would have liked, so he's off to a different campaign, the new 24th Congressional.
One of several Republicans hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Lois Capps, D-Santa Barbara, Maldonado has dropped big money into his campaign, retrieved it quickly and then dropped it back in again.
The rapid cycling of money, timed to fundraising deadlines, could appear like a way to inflate campaign reports and demonstrate political viability. Or, as Maldonado's campaign consultants say, it could be simple prudence.
*** **** ***
Seemingly mirroring campaign moves seen last year in a Northern San Joaquin Valley congressional race, Maldonado loaned his House campaign $250,000 on June 30. Coming on the last day of the fundraising period, the loan, combined with contributions, enabled Maldonado to show a respectable $531,401 on hand.(SLO Tribune)
Mighty convenient for St. Maldo how awesome it makes you look without well, actually having to raise the money. Meanwhile Capps has almost $900K in the bank to fight what will likely be one of the most competitive races in the nation. But, who knows, maybe our friend Abel will simply talk himself out of a real race.
Capps is a solid member of Congress that knows the district and represents it well. Abel? Well, opportunist is the first word that comes to mind.
My representative in Congress, Elton Gallegly (R-CA24), is a useless backbencher. He works to oppose animal "crush" videos, which is a minor positive, while voting in lockstep with Republicans the rest of the time. And he's been questioning the Fourteenth Amendment, trying to end automatic citizenship for children born in the United States, since 1991. But this year, he's considering joining the House Tea Party Caucus.
Enough is enough. So when MoveOn asked me to host a rally outside Gallegly's office tomorrow afternoon, I agreed. What have I gotten myself into?
(More great information - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.
With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.
Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
Brian is wrong, that does not take care of the horse race for the day! Today is the deadline for Congressional incumbents and challengers to declare their fundraising totals for the second quarter of 2009, and some numbers on the California candidates jump out. If I write "incomplete," that's because their FEC report hasn't popped up yet. I'll fill in when they become available:
We'll start with the special election in CA-10:
John Garamendi: $300,000 raised, $260,000 CoH, $54,000 debt
Mark DeSaulnier: incomplete $212,000 raised, $136,000 CoH, $77,000 debt
Joan Buchanan: incomplete $64,000 raised, $179,000 CoH, $308,000 debt
Anthony Woods: $105,000 raised, $65,000 CoH
Adriel Hampton: incomplete $22,500 raised, $269.77 CoH, $346.82 debt
Waiting on more info on this one. John Garamendi's number came from 350 people, almost $1,000 a head. That suggests no grassroots fundraising base. Anthony Woods had over twice as many donors, who could be tapped again. UPDATE: OK, this is interesting. Joan Buchanan raised a fairly paltry amount considering the primary is in six weeks, but she took out a $250,000 loan and has a significant amount of debt. She seems to be blowing through operating expenses too. Likewise, Mark DeSaulnier, who raised a decent amount, has over half of his cash on hand in debt. And I missed that John Garamendi has $50,000 in debt as well. Suddenly, Anthony Woods has more debt-free cash on hand than anyone in the field but Garamendi.
CA-03:
Gary Davis: $34,000 raised, $30,000 CoH
Dr. Amerish Bera: $288,000 raised, $286,000 CoH
Dan Lungren (inc.): incomplete $233,000 raised, $322,000 CoH
Bill Slaton: $113,000 raised, $224,000 CoH, $116,000 debt
That is an eye-popping number for Amerish Bera, and lest you see it as a doctor self-funding, only $4,800 came from the candidate. I was shocked by that total. We'll see what Dan Lungren ends up raising later today, but it's entirely possible that Bera will have MORE cash on hand than the incumbent (Lungren only had $121,000 on hand at the end of April, with $12,000 in debts). Wow. UPDATE So Bera outraised Lungren, but he ekes out a cash on hand lead. As an incumbent, however, that's a weak performance. UPDATE II: Bill Slaton claimed to some that he raised $227,000 in three weeks, but half of that comes in the form of a personal loan to the campaign. His actual cash on hand is much less than Bera. But $113,000 in three weeks isn't bad.
CA-45:
Steve Pougnet: $201,000 raised, $203,000 CoH
Mary Bono Mack (inc): $166,000 raised, $448,000 CoH
Steve Pougnet outraised the incumbent in Q2, which is quite impressive. Mary Bono Mack starts out with a bigger war chest, so he has some work to do, but this is an excellent start, and I think Pougnet has a natural fundraising base that will only expand once his story gets out.
CA-44:
Bill Hedrick: $65,000 raised, $66,000 CoH
Ken Calvert (inc.): incomplete $407,000 raised, $384,000 CoH
Certainly an improvement over the first quarter for Bill Hedrick, and all of the money came from Southern California, which means he has a solid fundraising and volunteer base locally. He needs to spread that out nationally to maximize his potential in this winnable race.
Believe it or not, Dreier actually had a much bigger war chest last cycle. Russ Warner needs to do better to be competitive, but he's actually in a slightly better position than two years ago.
This was a tough quarter for Krom, with the tragic death of her son taking up a lot of time in the final weeks. Campbell ramped up his fundraising a bit after Krom beat him in the last quarter.
A solid quarter of fundraising for Francine Busby, notwithstanding that police action at one of her fundraisers while guests were pepper sprayed. UPDATE: Brian Bilbray had a good quarter.
The field is still getting together in this race, but I wanted to see Elton Gallegly's fundraising output, which is somewhat pathetic. He does have enough of a war chest that he doesn't necessarily need to get moving on that yet, however.
UPDATE the last: Swing State Project has a full roundup with a number of other interesting tidbits.
• In CA-04, Tom McClintock raised a bundle - $341,000 - but he still has over $100,000 in outstanding debt and only $245,000 CoH. Some fiscal conservative.
• In CA-10, one Republican is showing financial viability, David Harmer, with a $175,000 haul (but that's based on the first six months, not just the quarter). He has $144,000 CoH and $17,000 in outstanding debt. And his ideological viability in that district is, shall we say, suspect, though he is likely to reach a runoff.
• In CA-11, which I think is safe, Jerry McNerney raised $288,000 and has $519,000 cash on hand. One of his potential opponents, Brad Goehring, would seem to have a good financial position with $259,000 CoH, but he only raised $14,000 for the quarter and has $250,000 in debt due to a massive loan. The same with Jon Del Arroz, who guaranteed a huge loan for himself and has as much in debt as he does in cash on hand. These guys are wasting money, in my opinion.
• I added Ken Calvert's numbers in CA-44. Clearly the NRCC is protecting him by bolstering his fundraising.
• CA-47 is on the fringe of being competitive, but Van Tran had a good quarter, beating Loretta Sanchez (barely) in fundraising:
Disclaimer: I am an unpaid volunteer for Tim Allison's campaign in CA-24
This evening I received an email from Tim Allison officially expressing his intention to run for CA-24 (with formal announcement to come in September), after a lengthy exploratory committee phase in which he has been tirelessly seeking the support of activists across the county.
From the email:
Tim Allison announced today the successful conclusion of his exploratory committee and the beginning of his campaign for Congress in California's Congressional District 24.
Although Allison will not formally announce his candidacy until September, he has formed a committee with the Federal Election Commission and is raising money and actively seeking endorsements.
"Over the past several months, I have had the privilege to conduct a listening tour in all parts of the 24th Congressional District." said Tim Allison, "I have spoken to teachers and small businesspeople, doctors and retail clerks, farmers and students. Everywhere I went there was both optimism and uncertainty. People want change. They want to leave a better country for their children. They want to know that their job is secure and their pension will be there for them when they retire. They want a strong educational system and affordable healthcare. They also want a representative in Congress who shares their values and will listen to their concerns." "The people of the 24th Congressional deserve someone who represents them and not special interests in Washington, DC," declared Allison, "and my campaign will be about the people in cities and neighborhoods across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. The Barack Obama campaign, which I was privileged to have been a part of, has shown the difference we can make block by block and street by street. With the help of an incredible campaign team, we will bring change to CD-24 and begin the important work of improving education, reforming healthcare, jumpstarting our economy, providing green jobs and alternative energy and supporting public safety."
The Tim Allison for Congress Campaign would like to thank his committee.
Co-Chairs of the Tim Allison for Congress Exploratory Committee:
Leo Valenzuela-Ventura County Labor Leader
Jill Martinez-Former Congressional Candidate & Chair, Ventura County Central Committee
Daraka Larimore Hall- Chair, Santa Barbara County Central Committee*
Sue Broidy-Regional Director of the Democratic Party* (Region 10)
Members of the Tim Allison for Congress Exploratory Committee:
David Atkins-President, Ventura County Young Dems*
KK Holland- Vice-President of Administration, Ventura County Young Dems*
Joyce Howerton-former Mayor of Lompoc
Mike Getto- Obama Precinct Specialist
Sherry Holland-Obama Phone Bank Organizer
Cheryl Hermann- President of the Santa Ynez Democratic Club*
Ron Suckle-President of the Stonewall Dems of Ventura County*
Sandra Kinsler-President of the Ventura Democrats
Brian Leshon-Communications Committee Chair, VCDCC
Steve Cummings, Treasurer of the Working Blue Democratic Club*
Debra Dent-CD 24 regional coordinator for the Obama Campaign*
Jay Kapitz- Obama Delegate to the Denver Convention
Sandy Emberland of the Democratic Club of the Conejo Valley* and Obama Delegate
Bill Gallaher, Supervisor Zaragosa's office* and fmr Chair, Ventura Cty Dem Party*
Sharon Hillbrant, Fmr Chair Ventura County Dem Party*
* all titles for identification purposes only and are not used to suggest organizational endorsements.
The Democratic primary race is bound to be interesting: already in the mix are 2008 Democratic primary winner Marta Jorgensen, my fellow young Democrat Shawn Stern, and Moorpark College Professor Marie Panec. Also a wild card is the possibility of the entrance of Jim Dantona into the race, as he wavers between running for AD-37, CA-24, Ventura County Supervisor (in a reprise of the race he lost by under 1,000 votes to the execrable Peter Foy), or none of the above. Dantona and Allison had a greater conversation at a recent labor fundraiser I attended, and it seems that Dantona is leaning against a CA-24 run--though politics being what it is, that could change.
Contrary to earlier reports and rumors, previous Democratic candidate Mary Pallant (whom I served briefly as online outreach coordinator) will not be filing to run as of our last conversation, and interim Ventura Party Chair and 2006 primary winner Jill Martinez will not be running, having already endorsed Tim Allison.
CA-24 will be a major uphill battle no matter who comes out the primary: Elton Gallegly, while one of the least effective and laziest members in all of Congress, has managed to keep a low profile and stay out of political hot water for the most part, winning 59% of the vote in a district that bucked its Republican registration advantage to vote for Barack Obama.
(Thanks for the update. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Lots happening down in CA-24. Brian Dennert has several scoops. First, Elton Gallegly's anemic fundraising:
What's on his agenda? He doesn't appear on television much, he doesn't hold town hall forums, and he isn't going to be passing much legislation being in the minority party. In the last quarter he raised: $42,057.75
Should Democrats and Republicans interested in running get encouragement from those numbers that he might be retiring? He does have more than $800,000 in his warchest which should prove effective at protecting him if he does run again. But is a slow fundraising period a sign that he is retiring?
We're setting a course for the center of the sun in the state budget process right now, but today is also the last day of the second quarter, an important day for Congressional candidates, who must file fundraising reports based on close of business today. So this is as good a time as any to take a look at the Congressional races and where we stand at this point. I have not yet done similar roundups for 2010 statewide offices or legislative races, but plan to do so in the near future. If you find any of these challenges attractive, I urge you to pass a few bucks along to the candidate of your choice. This quarter will help or hurt the candidacies in terms of their perception of viability.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link. Open Congress also has a good Wiki on all the seats involved.
I've been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain's closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.
(More good stuff. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock's less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
In 2007-08, I wrote a monthly series of House race roundups here in California, taking a look at the races with the highest potential to change members of Congress. This cycle, there are promises from the national Democrats that they will pay attention to a number of seats in California held by Republicans, and with the statewide races at the top of the ticket looking favorable for Democrats, and Republican registration collapsing throughout the state, in theory we should see some more movement. But many of these elements were true the past two cycles, amounting to little. Because it's a statewide officer election year, I will also do a statewide races roundup at a later time. But for now, let's take a look at the seats most likely to flip in 2010, starting with seats currently held by Democrats, few of which are in play. In addition to those "threatened" by Republicans, I'm including two seats where I've heard rumblings about primary challenges to incumbents.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link.
(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
(Sorry, guys, I wrote this one, as well as any "Open Thread" comment. I forget to log out sometimes...
- promoted by David Dayen)
State Democrats are buzzing about this weekend's Carla Marinucci article entitled "California Dems target 8 GOP districts", which claims that Republican voter registration is dropping fast, providing a major opportunity to pick up Congressional seats in 2010.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted 35 districts across the country represented by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives - including eight in California - that were won by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, said Jennifer Crider, the committee spokeswoman.
The Democrats plan increased appeals to voters in those areas and will make aggressive efforts to recruit Democratic candidates to run against the Republican incumbents, she said [...]
The vulnerable California districts with Republican representatives that were won by Obama are those of Reps. Dan Lungren of Gold River (Sacramento County), Mary Bono-Mack of Palm Springs, David Dreier of San Dimas (Los Angeles County), Elton Gallegly of Thousand Oaks (Ventura County), Brian Bilbray of Solana Beach (San Diego County), John Campbell of Newport Beach (Orange County), Ken Calvert of Riverside and Howard "Buck" McKeon of Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), the committee says.
It would be nice if I thought any of this would work. First of all, the registration changes didn't just spring up in December 2008. These trends have been occurring for some time, and were all present during the last election. Despite this, we had a candidate in CA-25 (McKeon) who spent less than $10,000 or her entire campaign. The candidate in CA-24 (Gallegly) won her primary because of her ballot designation and without spending any significant money. (By the way, CA-25 is now the seat held by the GOP with the closest registration gap between Republicans and Democrats in the whole state. Did you know that?) In the races where we managed to compete, our candidates significantly underperformed the top of the ticket, and in most cases underperformed Barbara Boxer's performance in 2004, when a less dominant John Kerry was at the top of the ticket.
I don't think there are that many other people who have followed California congressional races closer than I have, and I have to say that we simply suck at elections in these kinds of races out here in California. The state party is dysfunctional at best and downright criminal at worst. Put it this way: we had the same chance to win all these seats in 2008. Nate Silver, making a separate point, provides a list of the 30 districts where Obama won between 50 and 52 percent of the vote. As you'll see, we did extremely well in those seats, except for in California.
Barack Obama won 51 percent of the vote in NY-20 on November 4th. How did congressional candidates perform in other districts where he received between, say, 50 and 52 percent of the vote? Again, we see essentially an even split; Republicans won 16 of 30 such districts and Democrats won 14:
Won by Republicans (16): CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-50, FL-10, FL-18, MI-4, MN-3, NE-2, NJ-7, NY-23, VA-4, WI-1, WI-6
Won by Democrats (14): FL-22, KS-3, MI-1, MI-7, MN-1, NC-2, NJ-3, NY-1, NY-19, NY-20*, NY-24, TX-23, VA-2, WA-3
Winning percentage in these seats in states other than CA: 58.3%
Winning percentage in CA: 0.0%
By the way, the other two districts not mentioned above that are now being "targeted"? CA-03 (Lungren) was 49-49 Obama, and CA-48 (Campbell) was also 49-49 Obama. Heck, even CA-46 was only 50-48 McCain. Obama got 46% in CA-19 (Radanovich), where there was no Democratic candidate, and 47% in CA-40 (Royce).
Some would argue that, properly resourced, these seats would suddenly become very winnable. I give you CA-50, where Nick Leibham consistently beat Brian Bilbray in fundraising and maxed out at the 45% ceiling on Democrats in that district.
CA-44 is somewhat winnable because Bill Hedrick came close in '08 and is running again. We lost our best candidate in CA-03, Bill Durston, and everywhere else, I'm just extremely dubious, because the state party has systematically psyched itself out of winning these seats (thanks to the Faustian bargain of incumbency-protected gerrymandering designed by... imminent state party chair John Burton), and the commitment at the national level has been known to wane. We've left dozens of winnable elections on the table the past two cycles, dramatically underperforming the nation. A little DCCC money won't change that.
It was 1974 when Jerry Brown ran for governor as a dashing 36-year-old reformer, the embodiment of change in Watergate's aftermath.
"I was the new spirit," Brown recalled. "That was my slogan."
No one would mistake Brown for a new spirit today. At 70, he occupies a prime spot among the elders of California politics. His career has spanned four decades, with three failed tries for the White House along his way up, down and back up the elective ranks.
Now, after two years as state attorney general, this Democrat who first ran for office in the era of Janis Joplin and the Beatles is remaking himself yet again. This time, Brown's quest is to recapture the job he won 35 years ago: governor of California.
California doesn't have a good history of Democratic candidates for Governor not named Brown over the last 50 years, so that alone is something. Brown has a lot to recommend him for the job and almost as much to reject him. He would be solid on the environment, energy and infrastructure but an absolute mess on prison policy. Right now, the field includes Gavin Newsom and John Garamendi, with several other possibles. If there's a movement candidate on the horizon, I don't see him or her.
The second development is that the DCCC, the campaign arm for Democrats in the House, has launched radio ads in 28 districts nationwide attacking House Republicans for their obstruction on the stimulus package.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), chaired by Congressman Chris Van Hollen, today announced the DCCC is launching a Putting Families First ad and grassroots campaign in 28 targeted Republican districts. The ads focus on the Republicans out of step priorities by putting bank bail outs and building schools in Iraq before the needs of the Americans in the struggling economy. The Putting Families First ads begin airing on Tuesday morning during drive time and will run for a week.
In addition to the strategic radio ads in 28 Republican districts, the DCCC will also begin a grassroots initiative which includes targeted e-mails to 3 million voters and nearly 100,000 person-to-person telephone calls.
This is pretty early to be making such a move. And what's very notable is the districts in California the D-Trip is hitting.
Representative Dan Lungren (CA-03)
Representative Elton Gallegy (CA-24)
Representative Ken Calvert* (CA-44)
Representative Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
CA-03 is an obvious choice, as it's the most ripe district in the state for a turnover, and Bill Durston has already announced for a third run after his good showing in 2008. It's good to see CA-44 get some action; Bill Hedrick came the second-closest in the state to defeating a Republican, and he's running again. (The asterisk on that race means that they are actually using two separate ads in his district, one on children's heath care and one on the bank bailout, so they're actually targeting Calvert more than the others.) CA-50 is a perennial tease, with the Democrat never besting 46% against Brian Bilbray, but it's just close enough to target.
The inclusion of CA-24 is interesting. We basically had no candidate there this time, as Marta Jorgensen spent pocket change to go against Elton Gallegly. She still managed 42% of the vote, showing that the floor for Democrats is fairly substantial. Gallegly has threatened retirement in the past and this is probably just pressure to get him to leave Congress. Perhaps the D-Trip knows of a good candidate waiting in the wings.
No CA-26, CA-46 or CA-04 on this list, probably because Debbie Cook, Russ Warner and Charlie Brown have made no indication that they're running again.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
(Low-turnout primaries are really tricky things. And it's so hard to run a traditional grassroots campaign in California. This is a pretty amazing story, and ties in to what I was talking about below. - promoted by David Dayen)
Well, one thing's for sure: Democrats are tired of big business and the insurance industry. So much so, in fact, that Democrats in CA-24 elected to vote in landslide numbers for Marta Jorgensen, a candidate who did little traditional campaigning to speak of--including, apparently, not even purchasing the state voter file--simply on the basis of the ballot designation "educator".
The Democratic primary race in CA-24 to challenge perennial do-nothing Republican Elton Gallegly was a 3-way contest between progressive favorite Mary Pallant, the previous Democratic contestant Jill Martinez, and political neophyte Marta Jorgensen.
The outcome of this race is difficult for me to write about, as I was very enthusiastic about Mary's campaign: her progressive stances on issues from Iraq to healthcare to accountability for the Bush Administration are all very attractive, and of the three candidates, she is by far the most charismatic and hard-nosed. She also knows exactly what it takes to run a good campaign, and it was something of an open secret in the local political scene that Elton Gallegly was very nervous about having to face her in November. I was so impressed with Mary (and still am) that I signed on to become to her volunteer Netroots Outreach Coordinator. But in a low-turnout election, the strangest things can happen.
