Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:
I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:
Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:
(Me? I din' do nothin' - except promote this diary. Thank YOU, Congresswoman Speier. - promoted by David Dayen)
We did it!
Thanks to the help from so many of you here at Calitics and throughout the California progressive blogosphere -- Bob, Melissa, Brian, Frank, Greg, Robert, Julia, Dave, and so many of you -- our campaign won a resounding victory last night.
Your support in the blogosphere made a real difference on Tuesday. Thank you so much for blogging about the race, building support, mobilizing activists, and helping us get out the vote. I promise that I will work as hard as I can, every day, to make you proud.
Together, we won a tremendous victory Tuesday night -- but now it's already time to get to work. I just got off a plane, and I am already in Washington, DC. Tomorrow I'll be sworn in on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives and cast my first vote as a Member of Congress.
I'm quite fortunate to live in Speaker Pelosi's district. It's definitely cool to say that the Speaker of the House is your representative. But, on Tuesday, I'll wish I lived a few blocks (literally) to the west so that I could vote for Jackie Speier.
Yesterday, I headed down to South San Francisco, the land of fog and strip malls, to chow down on some pancakes with Jackie Speier. When I and my blogger crew (namely: Sweet Melissa & Spots) rolled in there, it was a little slow. And, to put it mildly, we lowered the average age by a few decades. But that's all well and good, because we were about to get served pancakes by a future Congresswoman, but instead we sat down to a plate of flapjacks served by a high schooler whom I later found out was Jackie's daughter.
You can see the video of much of Jackie's remarks. She spent much of the time talking about the people that have endorsed her and the 41 community meetings that she's held between her campaign kickoff and the election tomorrow. She's basically running this campaign as an old-school as you get. She kicked it off in January with hot dogs and cotton candy, and is making the close with pancakes and spaghetti in an attempt to meet every possible voter. The election on Tuesday will be verrrry low turnout, so ever voter counts.
Jackie's extremely qualified for the job. In her speech she ticked off all her priorities, especially consumer protection. Her privacy bill remains the strongest in the nation, and she will continue to fight for the rights of the consumer in Washington. If she gets 50%+1 on Tuesday, she will be representing CA-12 on Thursday. So, if you're in the district, please remember to vote.
Former state Sen. Jackie Speier offers you a choice of pancakes (Sunday morning, South SF) or spaghetti (Sunday night, Burlingame). The pancake event is free, but the spaghetti will cost you $10. Find out more or RSVP here.
As for me, I'm a pancake fan. Expect to see me lining up for a big ol' stack Sunday morning. Also, speaking of CA-12, Jackie's election is Tuesday. She needs 50%+1 to get her seat in Congress. If you live in the district, make sure you show up and vote so the district gets representation ASAP.
Speier is far and away the most qualified of the five candidates on the ballot. If she wins a majority of the vote, she could be sworn into office as early as Wednesday.
As a state legislator, Speier achieved an impressive succession of victories for consumers, most notably her determined three-year push to overcome the resistance of the banking industry to produce the nation's strongest financial privacy law. In retrospect, one of her bills that did not pass demonstrates her foresight: a 2006 bill that would have strengthened consumer protections against subprime loans.
"I think it speaks volume about the power of the special interests," Speier said. "Even when we see something coming, we don't act."
Speier, as much as anyone in the State Capitol, showed a willingness to take on entrenched interests. Her targets included the powerful prison guards' union and the University of California administration. There is every reason to believe Speier will be every bit as vigorous in challenging the Washington establishment on issues such as the war in Iraq and consumer concerns - including health care.
This will be low turnout, there hasn't been much of a race. But Speier is amazingly popular (for good reason), has a top-notch campaign team and is anticipated to get around 109% of the vote on Tuesday. Which is good, because we need her in Washington ASAP.
I was preparing to write a piece about how Lawrence Lessig was waiting far too long to make a decision about whether or not to run for Congress, but apparently he got the same message.
With lots of mixed feelings, I have decided a run for Congress would not help the Change Congress movement. I explain the thinking in this 5 minute video (a new record for me!). First question: What happens to the contributions to Lessig08? As explained on the ActBlue page, all will go to (the yet to be established) Change Congress organization.
I will miss what would have been a very interesting debate in the 12th District, but I'm confident that Jackie Speier is going to be an excellent addition to our Congressional delegation. In the end, Lessig just didn't have enough time to make the sale.
Welcome back to the long-awaited California House races roundup! These things take up an inordinate amount of time, but I've finally found some, and I'm ready to go with this roundup. There's a lot of additional information, including Q4 2007 fundraising numbers, the turnout in the February primary offering a decent snapshot of Democratic chances in a particular district, and quite a few new candidates to speak about. I'm going to rank the top ten challenges to Republican-held seats across the state, as well as take a look at the two intriguing races held by Democrats. But first, it should be mentioned that the deadline for applying to run for a Congressional seat is fast approaching (March 7, I believe), and 4 of the 19 Republican-held seats in the state still have no challenger: CA-02 (Herger), CA-19 (Radanovich), CA-22 (McCarthy), and CA-25 (McKeon). This is especially distressing in CA-19 and CA-25, where turnout in the Feb. 5 primary was either even or favored Democrats. So anyone in these 4 districts: run for Congress! It's a résumé builder!
(By the way, you can follow all of the candidates in all these races at the 2008 Race Tracker.
Lawrence Lessig has announced that he's creating an exploratory committee to run for CA-12, which can be found at http://lessig08.org. If he does decide to run, Lessig would be about the only person who would make it tough for me to determine who to support. I'm actually about a block away from the district, so I don't get to vote, but both candidates would be excellent Congress members.
I am really, really looking forward to the debates in this race. I think this has the opportunity to become one of the just plain coolest races for quite some time. So, keep an eye out, CA-12 just got a whole lot more interesting
Rep. Tom Lantos of California, the only Holocaust survivor to serve in Congress, has died, his spokeswoman said Monday.
Lynne Weil said that Lantos, 80, passed away at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center in suburban Maryland.
Lantos was the only Holocaust survivor in Congress and had a long record on human rights issues.
Lantos, who was elected to the House in 1980, founded the Congressional Human Rights Caucus in 1983. In early 2004 he led the first congressional delegation to Libya in more than 30 years, meeting personally with Moammar Gadhafi and urging the Bush administration to show "good faith" to the North African leader in his pledge to abandon his nuclear weapons programs. Later that year, President Bush lifted sanctions against Libya.
Lantos had already announced his retirement because of the cancer. He becomes the second California member of Congress to succumb to cancer in this session after Juanita Millender-McDonald who passed away in April.
Tom Lantos was a giant and will be missed both as a legislator and a person.
Update: Capitol Alert notes there will be a special election for the seat before November, possibly in tandem with the June election.
(Bumped as a sign of respect for a campaign I can't see declaring. But I believe that despite the reasoning jumps in this diary, if this were to happen this deserves more exposure. - promoted by Bob Brigham)
I'm a big fan of Larry Lessig's blog, which used to be called Lessigblog, and now Lessig 2.0. Howard Dean blogged there in 2003 and for the 2008 nomination he's supporting Barack Obama. His work at Stanford and legal/philosophical work is legendary. So it was with great excitement I found a diary at Daily Kos published earlier in the week, with a little bit of supporting evidence, suggesting that Lessig could announce he's running for congress. It might even be as soon as this week:
You have to be a complete fool to claim to be a Democrat and then package in your campaign trial balloon a prepared statement of praise from Joe Lieberman. Anyone you has been paying any attention knows that is the kiss of death in Democratic politics, especially in a blue seat in a major blue geographic area effectively serviced by mass transit. I'm surprised we haven't seen any quotes (yet) from Dan Gerstein.
I don't have a problem with people who worked for Lieberman running for office, but there needs to be an apology right off the bat so voters recognize that the candidate has learned the errors of their ways and is willing to take responsibility all those who have suffered due to their support for Bush's main man in the senate.
But that isn't the route Yul Kwon (CA for Leiberman) is taking. Nope, he seems to think Lieberman praising him makes him look good (like Bush, or like Brownie during his confirmation). That just isn't the case. Speier v Yee would have been a hard fought but fair campaign. Yet anyone running on the Connecticut for Lieberman ticket in the Bay Area should expect far, far worse.
UPDATE: Even one of our friends at the California Majority Report agrees that, "being a former Lieberman staffer doesn't really win one a lot of friends in the Democratic Party."
I'm currently at the Leo J Ryan memorial park for Jackie Speier's official congressional campaign kickoff. Wow. Not only is it the nicest day imaginable, but the crowd is amazingly huge (I'll have pics up later). I'm told the number is 812 signed in with over 40 of her 92 endorsed elected officials on hand. Anna Eshoo. Mike Thompson. John Burton. Scores of volunteers. Hot dogs and a cotton candy machine. The operation is top notch.
If it is possible to win a campaign with one event, the Speier campaign may have pulled it off today. The overwhelming show of support and organization is going to make anyone think long and hard about getting in the race. Speier's popularity in the district is legendary, but today was a powerful reminder of how deep that support runs. There's a poll after the jump asking your predictions as to whether you think Leland Yee gets in. I'm voting no.
Updated with pictures and speech exerts and news coverage and videos.
It's offical, Jackie Speier is in according to the San Francisco Examiner. Following the announced retirement of Tom Lantos, she will make her announcement Sunday to represent the solid blue CA-12.
Rep. Tom Lantos has been diagnosed with esophageal cancer and will not be running for re-election. Here is a bit of background on Lantos and his statement: examiner.com
Lantos, 79, is the only Holocaust survivor elected to Congress and is known for his dedication to human rights issues. He is serving his 14th term as a House member.
"It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a member of Congress," Lantos said in a statement. "I will never be able to express fully my profoundly felt gratitude to this great country."
I am sad to hear of Lantos's illness. He has indeed lived a remarkable life, though I differ greatly from his hawkish positions with respect to Israel.
This does mean that there will not be a primary challenge in this district. Jackie Speier had already announced that she would be running against Lantos. I am bummed, that would have been a fun race and one that the blogosphere would have been heavily involved in. Look for Sen. Leland Yee to also run for this seat. It is not that often that there is an open House seat in the bay. This is a deep blue district and it deserves to be represented by a progressive.
(Huge news for Speier, Tourk is top-notch! - promoted by Bob Brigham)
(This is more of a quick hit than a diary, but I thought this news was just too juicy to ignore.)
It looks like Jackie Speier is pretty seriously considering running in CA-12 against Tom Lantos.
Demo derby: Former state Sen. Jackie Speier has just signed Mayor Gavin Newsom's onetime campaign manager Alex Tourk to help launch her still-unofficial campaign to unseat Peninsula Congressman Tom Lantos in next June's Democratic primary.
"She hasn't declared yet, but she asked me to join her team - and I'm honored to be part of it," Tourk said Friday. "And I'm confident when people are reminded of her record and talk to her one-on-one in house meetings, there will be no doubt her time is now."
Tourk was Gavin Newsom's campaign manager and deputy chief of staff ... until it was revealed that Newsom was sleeping with Tourk's wife, Ruby Rippey-Tourk. I don't know much about Tourk but he has a reputation for being a skilled political consultant so this is another sign that Speier is getting closer to running for CA-12.
Updated with a swell picture from Russiablog. -Lucas
Via TPM , word of internal polling from Jackie Speier that shows her with a huge 30 point lead over incumbent Tom Lantos. Speier's camp quotes a 57%-27% lead over Lantos is a straight "who would you support" poll of the 12th district.
The goodwill and name recognition that Speier built up during her primary run for Lt. Governor last year seem to be serving her well out of the gate. I'm sure Lantos will bounce back from numbers like these, especially once the incumbent protection kicks in. But if these numbers prove to be remotely accurate, it's gonna be a heckuva race on the peninsula.
(I received an email with this piece from a fellow public policy grad of Berkeley, Richard Harris Smith. Mr. Smith argues that Lantos could be more effective from outside of the halls of Congress than from within. It's a valid and reasonable point. Check it out here. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
There's another report on the Jackie Speier primary challenge for Tom Lantos in today's Matier and Ross:
she told us late Friday that she hasn't made a final decision - and that when she does, we'll be among the first to know. "The good news is Congressman Lantos has finally come back to the district," she said, a digging reference to his trip home this week for the holidays and to attend a congressional subcommittee hearing on the Coast Guard's role in the big bay oil spill.
Challenge or not, Lantos, who will turn 80 in February, said through his spokeswoman: "I fully expect to win the primary in June and the general election next November. "As always, I intend to run a positive, constructive campaign," he added, "and I trust that any opponents will do the same."(SF Chron 11.24.07)
This district is literally 2 blocks from my home, as it knifes through the middle of San Francisco, but it's far different from Pelosi's seat. By any measure, it's a very progressive seat, but different factors are in play. It's a heavily minority seat, primarily Asian-Americans, but Speier was easily elected in her final run for state senate in 2002. (The districts don't perfectly overlap, but it's close.)
As has been mentioned around here a couple of times, Lantos has been known to use his Holocaust survivor history in discussions of foreign policy. And while these experiences are valid, questions remain about whether he can accurately represent the anti-war sentiments of the district. He supported the initial invasion, and has been fairly hawkish on Iran. However, he's been a vocal critic of recent Iraq strategy, and has been a useful voice for the Speaker as she seeks to promote better diplomacy.
It seems reasonably clear at this point that the Speaker would not be pleased to see Lantos taken out in a primary challenge. Lantos is a strong Pelosi supporter, and any way, the Speaker is no vocal supporter of primary challenges. However, given her relationship with Lantos, one would suspect that she would take this very seriously. Most assuredly we would see a strong Pelosi endorsement of Lantos, likely along with some money and a bit of her time if the race is close as we approach June.
There are a lot of competing forces at play here, a challenge to Lantos would be a very bold step for Speier, but it's still an open question at this point. However, Speier seems to have some tentative support in the netroots.
The Capitol Alert AM Email raises an interesting point:
If Speier does jump in, that may open the door for a third candidate -- Sen. Leland Yee, who replaced her in the Senate. All three represent San Francisco's South Bay and, unlike Lantos or Speier, it's the middle of the election cycle for Yee, who wouldn't have to risk his own seat to run.
But there is another issue lurking in the back here: Will Leland Yee run if Jackie runs. A three-way race would likely favor Lantos, but that's hardly clear. Here's the thing for Yee, if he doesn't run and then Jackie wins, the seat is out of play for another 20 years. If Lantos wins, then he can run in an open seat whenever Lantos retires. While it's not totally clear how he would affect the race, I think it's almost a no-brainer for Yee if Speier enters.
Yee has been something of an enigma in the City. On the Board of Supervisors, he represented a heavily Chinese district, which, for the City, is/was fairly conservative. In the Assembly he was known primarily for going after video games. He has come up with some interesting legislation, but isn't particularly loved by some of the major clubs in the City. However, the power of the Chinese vote would assure him a decent result if he ran.
