Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
UPDATE III:Our friends from Color of Change stopped by to say, "Big news -- James, our director, talked with a credible reporter who talked with Carolyn Kilpatrick, who, after being pressed, said that there is a Fox debate in the works, it just hasn't been announced." Is Barbara Lee going to let this happen?
UPDATE II:ColorofChange worries that the CBC Institute is still in talks with Fox and says, "This is no time to let up the pressure. They could be waiting for it to blow over so they can announce next week."
UPDATE:No need to call, the CBC Institute made a smart move, Fox lost out to CNN. Huge victory for Color of Change and a great day for the Democratic Party
Can a couple of Californians -- armed with little more than internet connections and the truth -- change the Congressional Black Caucus?
Fox News has a horrible record of attacking Black people, leaders, and cultural institutions. But at this very moment, the Congressional Black Caucus Institute is negotiating to partner with Fox to host presidential debates prior to the 2008 elections.
For the CBC Institute to partner with an organization like Fox News-given its hostility to Black political interests-would be shameful. You can help prevent them from making this serious mistake by calling on them to drop negotiations with Fox [...]
Given its record, Fox News shouldn't enjoy the support of Black political or cultural institutions connected to the Congressional Black Caucus. We believe the CBC Institute will change course once it realizes that Black America, if not all of America, is watching. Please join us in making sure they hear us, loud and clear:
