We're setting a course for the center of the sun in the state budget process right now, but today is also the last day of the second quarter, an important day for Congressional candidates, who must file fundraising reports based on close of business today. So this is as good a time as any to take a look at the Congressional races and where we stand at this point. I have not yet done similar roundups for 2010 statewide offices or legislative races, but plan to do so in the near future. If you find any of these challenges attractive, I urge you to pass a few bucks along to the candidate of your choice. This quarter will help or hurt the candidacies in terms of their perception of viability.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link. Open Congress also has a good Wiki on all the seats involved.
I've been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain's closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.
The banksters still have a powerful sway over members of Congress. Yesterday, they stopped cramdown in the Senate, which would have allowed bankruptcy judges to treat primary residences the same way as yachts and vacation homes in a bankruptcy. And there was much rejoicing.
On the same day, the House bucked the trend, passing the Credit Cardholder's Bill of Rights by a wide, bipartisan margin.
In 2008, credit card issuers imposed $19 billion in penalty fees on families with credit cards and this year, card companies will break all records for late fees, over-limit charges, and other penalties, pulling in more than $20.5 billion. Credit-card debt in the U.S. has reached a record high of nearly $1 trillion - and almost half of American families currently carry a balance, and for those families the average balance was $7,300. One-fifth of those carrying credit-card debt pay an interest rate above 20 percent [...]
The Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights Act passed today levels the playing field between card issuers and cardholders by applying common-sense regulations that would ban retroactive interest rate hikes on existing balances, double-cycle billing, and due-date gimmicks. It would also increase the advance notice of impending rate hikes, giving cardholders the information they need and rights to make decisions about their financial lives. Our economic recovery depends on a shared prosperity - and we must put an end to these abusive practices that continue to drive so many Americans deeper and deeper into debt.
I'm glad this ends double-cycle billing, where cardholders pay interest on debt that they've already paid off, and forces credit card companies to allocate payment to the debt with the highest interest rate. But overall, these are very modest protections that simply prohibit the credit card companies from ripping off the American people. And 105 Republicans agreed yesterday. But among those who didn't we're the usual suspects of arch-conservative Yacht Party wingers like Tom McClintock, joined by supposed "moderate" David Dreier.
Of course, as Dick Durbin noted yesterday, the bankers who own the Senate will return to try and ditch this bill. They've killed the same legislation before, and Harry Reid didn't exactly sound confident this time around. But I want to focus on Dreier and McClintock, both of whom and their pals in the GOP caucus have been well and truly bought by banking interests in exchange for votes like this.
Ed Royce (CA-40- $2,506,414)
David Dreier (CA-26- $2,118,538)
Gary Miller (CA-42- $765,988)
Devin Nunes (CA-21- $499,235)
Kevin McCarthy (CA-22- $461,138)
Tom McClintock (CA-04- $353,294)
Here's what newly-announced candidate Russ Warner had to say about this yesterday:
Dreier will once again be forced to face a top rate challenge in 2010, Russ Warner, who has every intention of making sure voters from Rancho Cucamonga, Upland, and Claremont to San Dimas, Monrovia, Sierra Madre, San Marino and La Crescenta know that Dreier is strictly a representative of the special interests that have done such grievous damage to the state's economy and to the financial well-being to his own constituents. "Time and time again," Russ told us this morning after going over the vote yesterday, "David Dreier proves the interests of his corporate donors take precedent over the people he was elected to serve. Dreier's never felt the pressure of supporting a family and has lived off the taxpayer dime for nearly three decades, so its not surprising he has no idea how harmful these predatory credit card companies are."
We're going to have to fight in the Senate to make sure this passes. But this vote should not be forgotten next year. Everyone has felt the pinch from credit card usurers, and so votes like this are signatures, marks of where you stand. Hopefully Warner and whoever challenges these other Republicans will use it.
In 2007-08, I wrote a monthly series of House race roundups here in California, taking a look at the races with the highest potential to change members of Congress. This cycle, there are promises from the national Democrats that they will pay attention to a number of seats in California held by Republicans, and with the statewide races at the top of the ticket looking favorable for Democrats, and Republican registration collapsing throughout the state, in theory we should see some more movement. But many of these elements were true the past two cycles, amounting to little. Because it's a statewide officer election year, I will also do a statewide races roundup at a later time. But for now, let's take a look at the seats most likely to flip in 2010, starting with seats currently held by Democrats, few of which are in play. In addition to those "threatened" by Republicans, I'm including two seats where I've heard rumblings about primary challenges to incumbents.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link.
Since it referenced me, let me start by shouting out to fellow Calitician Lucas O'Connor, writing on the front page of MyDD:
Since approximately the morning after election day in November, Dave Dayen has been writing over at Calitics about the dramatic Congressional pick-up opportunities in California that were missed in the Obama wave. Specifically, Obama carried 42 of California's 53 districts (I won't even begin right now to get into the state leg breakdown which is also a debacle), including eight districts held by Republicans in Congress. Well all of a sudden this week, the whole world is waking up to the Dayen gospel.
Not only is the current statewide Republican registration of 31% a historic low, but for the first time there is not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that has a majority Republican registration.
Apparently Bob Mulholland sent out a press release waking up to these facts last week. Now, I'm not going to hate on Mulholland for finally getting with the program. But let's make ourselves clear - this was true in 2006 and 2008 as well, and yet the state party failed to capitalize, by their own admission. So it's going to take more than one press release to show a commitment. Republicans have obviously become repellent to the broad majority of Californians, and they're too busy trying to recall each other to notice. It's upsetting that we haven't used this unpopularity in the past two election cycles, and I hope that the CDP can catch up with the curve.
They can start with effective recruitment. John Garamendi, who spoke to Greg Lucas as if he's still a gubernatorial candidate but who by all accounts will be running for Congress, ought to be pushed to run in the 3rd District, where he is the largest landowner and where there is currently no viable candidate to beat Dan Lungren in a district that is trending Democratic, instead of the 10th, where there are multiple viable candidates. Recruitment is an often-unremarked-upon but crucial element to winning elections.
Speaking of which...
• CA-04: This CapAlert piece certainly makes it sound like Charlie Brown might challenge Tom McClintock once again.
At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner at the Blue Goose Fruit Shed in Loomis, Brown and his wife, Jan, were honored as photographs flashed of Brown and supporters during four years of campaigning. The production was accompanied by songs from Bruce Springsteen's "No Surrender" to Neil Young's "Long May You Run."
And then Brown stirred huge cheers when he hinted he might have the stamina for one more try for Congress in 2010.
"We'll see what happens over the next few months - and whether you'll have the opportunity to get into any pictures again," Brown said.
In an interview, Brown said he is still mulling his prospects. He said he expects to decide by this fall.
We're big fans of Charlie here at Calitics, and should he run again we'll stand with him. McClintock would have the power of incumbency and a red-leaning district but the rumblings I'm hearing out of there signal that residents and local pols aren't all that enthused by the new Congressman's performance.
• CA-32: The LA Times weighs in with an overview of the 32nd race to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis set for May 19. They list Judy Chu and Gil Cedillo as the front-runners (though Emanuel Pleitez is profiled) and suggest that the race is a harbinger of the changing, minority-majority face of Southern California politics. They also mention the Betty Tom Chu controversy, as well as some allegations on the Cedillo side.
Judy Chu supporters suspect that Republican Betty Tom Chu, a Monterey Park councilwoman and a political opponent of Judy Chu, entered the race to confuse voters and harm the chances of her distant relative by marriage. Tom Chu said last week she did not have time to discuss her candidacy, but earlier told the San Gabriel Valley Tribune that she is running because she could not support any of the other candidates and wanted to offer voters an alternative.
Apparently motivated by concerns that the large number of Latino candidates in the race would split the vote in that group and give Judy Chu the edge, there also were signs of jockeying.
Democratic candidate Francisco Alonso, a former mayor of Monterey Park, and a campaign official for Democratic actor/filmmaker Stefan "Contreras" Lysenko each said Cedillo called them shortly before filing closed and urged them to drop out. A Cedillo spokesman said the state senator was merely inviting the others to "work together" with him and did not intend to discourage them from running.
Over the weekend, Cedillo won the endorsement of the LA County Young Democrats, while Chu garnered the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.
In a recent op-ed, Congressman Tom McClintock (R- Roseville) made the claim that Obama's stimulus bill would cost over $200,000 per job, and that conservative free-market policies would ultimately prevail in the end over the "tax-borrow-and-spend policies" of the Democratic Administration.
And who did he blame for those policies???
The guy he just barely beat in the race for Congress, Charlie Brown.
After a long fight to count every vote, Charlie Brown has acknowledged that Tom McClintock will be the next Congressman representing CA-04. Here's part of his email to supporters:
Thanks to the extraordinary work of our local elections officials, I am pleased to report that the high standards of fairness, accuracy, and transparency have been met. And with the counts and recounts across district four complete, and more than 370,000 votes tallied, the outcome of this election is no longer in question. Unfortunately, we've come up less than one half of one percent---just under 1,800 votes---short of victory.
So a short time ago, I called Senator Tom McClintock to congratulate him on a hard fought victory, and to wish him well in Congress.
To you, I can only offer my deepest gratitude-for your generosity of time and resources, and your unwavering energy and encouragement. Together, we have transformed the 4 th District, and lifted this campaign higher and farther than anyone thought possible.
I am proud of the campaign we ran.
Charlie fought a very good fight, actually becoming a point person for veteran's issues around the country and leading by example with his Promises Kept Challenge, donating 5% of his campaign contributions to organizations serving veterans and their families. And he showed through two cycles that the supposedly hopeless 4th District is more than winnable to the right candidate.
Still, he came up just short. But I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of.
This closes the book on elections in California. While the final numbers and vote totals will be released Dec. 13, we know that Democrats picked up a net 3 seats in the Assembly, no seats in the Senate, and no seats in the Congress. That's the performance despite a 24-point victory at the top of the ticket, the biggest in California since 1936.
We'll have much to discuss about this in the weeks to come, looking back to what happened and looking forward to prospects in the years ahead. For now, a sincere thanks to Charlie Brown, who made us proud.
...as a sort of postscript, the Auburn Dam project, which was the source of tremendous debate in the campaign, officially died today, as the state water board revoked the 40 year-old water rights. It was BROWN'S position, that the cost of the porposal outweighed the benefits, that won out.
Huge news in the continued counting of Charlie Brown's race against Tom McClintock. The latest round of counting has Brown within 329 votes as the provisionals, which tend to favor Democrats, get counted in the larger counties in the district.
Charlie Brown (Dem) 170,168 49.9%
Tom McClintock (Rep) 170,497 50.1%
There are still tens of thousands of votes left to count, and there's a virtual assurance of at least a partial recount. Tom McClintock has been sending his list these smug reports of the day's counting, telling them how everything's looking great. I haven't seen an update from him in a couple days. Probably because this is shaping up as a replay of the 2002 State Controller race, when the late provisionals put Steve Westly over the top in his race against... Tom McClintock.
Extended races like this cost money to maintain staff and pay lawyers. You can help Charlie out at the Calitics ActBlue page.
...meanwhile, Hannah-Beth Jackson is moving closer in SD-19. That race is down to 1,283 votes.
"We're not claiming victory, but we just think it's mathematically impossible for (Brown) to win," said Bill George, spokesman for McClintock.
George said the thousands of Placer County votes tallied Friday stretched McClintock's lead from barely 300 votes to 1,793, with only about 4,500 more votes to count in the nine-county district.
Brown spokesman Todd Stenhouse said Brown would not concede, noting that thousands more votes remain to be counted, most of which are provisional ballots that "have been breaking very, very strongly for Charlie."
"We remain committed to the same goals that we've been committed to all along and that is that every vote is counted in this historic election," Stenhouse said.
As TINS posted yesterday, Hannah-Beth Jackson has now fallen behind in the latest count of her race in SD-19, and according to local reports the remaining votes to be counted are mainly in Strickland-friendly areas. This one looks grim. At this hour Strickland leads by 1,560 votes, and it's actually outside of the 1/2 of 1% required for a partial recount.
Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem) 186,071 49.7%
Tony Strickland (Rep) 187,631 50.3%
The other two races we're monitoring are actually in better shape than Hannah-Beth's. In AD-10, the latest numbers from the Secretary of State show Jack Sieglock leading Alyson Huber by just 506 votes.
Alyson L. Huber (Dem) 80,507 46.4%
Jack Sieglock (Rep) 81,013 46.8%
This is currently inside recount territory. According to Randy Bayne, the remaining ballots left to count are mainly in Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties. The ballot count is done in Amador County and mostly done in El Dorado County. With some luck, the Sacramento County ballots will swing for Huber; she beat Sieglock 52-41 there. Sieglock won San Joaquin County 51-42.
In CA-04, Charlie Brown is within 569 votes of Tom McClintock.
Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,378 49.9%
Tom McClintock (Rep) 168,947 50.1%
The question is how many ballots are left in Nevada County, where Brown won big. According to the unprocessed ballot report, there are still 10,000 left up there, but I think that's outdated information. It's probably more like 5,000, if not less. Still, we are well within the .5% required for a partial recount. So that's where that's likely to be headed regardless of what happens with the final numbers.
Again, counts and recounts cost money, so if you can chip in a couple bucks for these Democrats at the Calitics ActBlue page, I'm sure they'd be grateful.
UPDATE: I just learned that Hannah-Beth Jackson had to evacuate her house today, owing to the Montecito fire. Hopefully everything will work out OK.
Unfortunately the news is not good. In CA-04, Charlie Brown has fallen behind of Tom McClintock by 1,092 votes, with still over 52,000 left to count. In CA-44, the number is now 5,896 votes separating Ken Calvert and Bill Hedrick. Both are trending away. In AD-10, Jack Sieglock now has a 614-vote lead on Alyson Huber. Only in SD-19 are we still on top, with Hannah-Beth Jackson leading Tony Strickland by 1,203 votes, which is exactly where the race was over the weekend.
A roundup of the close races at a glance is here. And you can help defray the costs of the lawyers to watch the counts and the staffs to support them at the Calitics ActBlue page.
UPDATE by Brian: Strickland has now taken a small lead over Hannah-Beth (178920 to 178380) after a bunch of votes came in from Ventura County. Frank Russo has the story. There are still a bunch of votes to count though.
Everyone should bookmark this site monitoring the close races that haven't been called in California. There are four such races within 2% at the moment. There's Prop. 11, which is trending toward passage with a 131,000 vote lead. There's SD-19, which has some breathing room now, as Hannah-Beth Jackson leads by 1,203 votes.
And then there are the two Sacramento-area races. Alyson Huber's race in AD-10 has really tightened up. She now trails Jack Sieglock by just 319 votes out of 154,000 counted. That is well within the 1/2 of 1% territory that would trigger an automatic recount. Which brings up an interesting question which perhaps some election junkie could answer. The Secretary of State certifies the count on December 2. But the new legislature is sworn in on December 1. If there's a race with no clear winner at that point, what happens?
Finally, we have CA-04, the race between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock. This has bounced around a bit, but we're now looking at an 889 vote lead for McClintock. There are anywhere between 48,000 and 55,000 votes left to count, based on this chart (which you can also bookmark) of unprocessed ballots. This race also appeared headed to a recount, and if you believe this Daily Kos diarist, Brown has a good shot at making up ground, because there are so many outstanding votes in Nevada County, where Brown did best.
We know these counts and recounts are expensive, and now two groups have stepped up with their support of Charlie while we sort this out. Wes Clark sent an email to his list today:
Our friend Charlie Brown needs our help. The margin in California's 4th Congressional District is razor thin, and they're still counting votes. After more than 300,000 ballots were cast in CA-04, the race is tied. The current difference stands at less than half of 1% (less than 500 votes).
With 40,000 vote-by-mail and provisional ballots still to be counted, the race is way too close to call. That's why it's critical for us to make sure all the votes are counted in CA-04.
Charlie's opponent, Tom McClintock, has hired an election attorney and brought in a team of lawyers to "watch" the locations where absentee and provisional ballots are being counted. McClintock's team is doing everything they can to challenge the votes of thousands of people who faithfully cast their ballots.
Charlie needs our help to fight back.
And DFA has done the same:
In 2000, we lost the election when the Bush campaign beat us in the legal and media fight that followed. In 2004, we had to force a recount in the Washington State Governor's race and we won because you delivered the resources to make it happen.
We need to raise at least $40,000 by Monday to back up these races with the resources they need right now.
In 2004, we raised over $250,000 for the Washington State recount. This year, we need $40,000 right now to keep the GOP dirty tricks at bay and make sure every vote is counted fairly.
DFA's Grassroots All-Star Charlie Brown needs resources to fend off a team of Republican lawyers who, as I write this message, are challenging every Democratic ballot before the FIRST count has even been completed. Charlie is down by less than 500 votes with over 15,000 votes still to be counted. He needs our help to make sure every vote is counted.
(Note: it's now 889 votes with over 48,000 votes left to be counted)
Earlier, I mentioned that the CA-04 race is not over. This bit of news reinforces that fact:
Truckee Town Council is one race that hangs in the balance.
"Four years ago I got 3,700 votes, and Josh [Susman] got 3,300, and this year so far we both have about 2,200," said current Mayor and candidate Barbara Green.
"Something is not quite right."
She said she figures about 1,000 to 2,000 votes are still unaccounted for in Truckee.
The missing votes could have repercussions as far reaching as the tightly-contested 4th Congressional District race between Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown, Green said.
The spokeswoman for a local ballot measure makes this sound more like a mystery of missing ballots rather than votes that are simply uncounted:
Proponents of the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District Measure U hoped the outstanding ballots may make the difference.
"Clearly there's been a major administrative error. We are hopefully those
outstanding ballots will push Measure U over the top," said Alison Elder, Measure U chair.
Administrative error? What does that mean, exactly.
This could be especially important because Brown won Nevada County, the county in question, by a substantial margin (57-43). If there are potentially 2,000 votes there, that would make up a lot of that difference if the margin holds.
...by the way, Bill Hedrick in CA-44 might be getting into recount territory, incredibly. It's down to a spread of just 2.8% between Hedrick and Rep. Ken Calvert, a difference of only 4,600 votes. It's the closest Congressional race outside of CA-04. I am sorry I didn't pay enough attention to it. Go Bill!
I would really like to get to the post-mortem and the ritual hacking of limbs to answer for the disconnect between a resounding victory at the top of the ticket and barely a ripple below it, but that would be assuming that the votes are all in. And they have not. There are maybe 3 MILLION ballots, in the form of late absentees and provisionals, still outstanding throughout the state. Now, this may not swing any of the statewide numbers with the exception of Prop. 11, but there are plenty of local races close enough that we have to make sure every vote is properly and accurately counted.
In particular, there's the closest race of the night, the battle between Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock in CA-04. Right now, the lead for McClintock on the Secretary of State's website is 451 votes. I'm told that lead is smaller, inside 400 votes. And furthermore, there are FORTY THOUSAND VOTES yet to be counted. These are the late-arriving permanent absentee votes, the ones that people bring to the polls on Election Day, which are always the last to be counted. There are also provisional ballots out there.
This race is not over. 40,000 votes must be counted and they must be counted fairly. Nobody should concede this race, least of all us. Here's a historical reminder - in 2002 Steve Westly was behind in his State Controller race by 10,000 votes once all the precincts returned. But provisional ballots broke for him 60-40, and he was elected.
His opponent that year was Tom McClintock.
Charlie Brown can win this race, but he needs your help. Hiring lawyers to ensure accurate counting is expensive. Maintaining a staff beyond Election Day is expensive. Going through to a recount, which is probable, is expensive.
If neither candidate emerges with a lead exceeding 1/2 of 1 percent of the vote, the race will automatically go to a partial manual recount, according to the secretary of state's office. That was the outcome the Brown campaign anticipated as the upset Brown aimed for still seemed in reach.
Charlie Brown is still in this race. You can support him at the Calitics ActBlue page.
(here's a less gory Charlie Brown story. GOTV - promoted by shayera)
As many of you know, Charlie Brown is running a different kind of campaign. He is not running for fame or for power or to derail the ambitions of an opponent. Instead, Charlie is running a campaign focused on taking action, solving problems and producing results.
• CA-04: Tom McClintock is bringing out the big guns to help his cash-strapped campaign - Ron Paul is all in!
Paul, the libertarian-Republican congressman from Texas who raised more than $34 million for his presidential race, sent out an e-mail last week urging his massive donor base to contribute to McClintock.
"Tom McClintock is one of the most promising warriors in the fight against big government we have seen in a long time, and the special interests and big bankers know it. ... You have stood with me as....
...I campaigned for the Presidency to return our federal government to its proper role. Will you help me bring a reliable ally to Congress?"
This brings up some interesting questions. Does Tom McClintock think we should withdraw from Iraq and dozens of other military bases around the world? Does he believe in abolishing the Federal Reserve? The coinage of free silver?
• CA-45: New voter registration statistics have not been released by the Secretary of State's office, but I think they will show good news for Democrats across the state. One statistic that is measurable is the early voting number, and in CA-45, it's good news for Julie Bornstein.
Democrats have significantly narrowed the early voting gap in the 45th Congressional District, an encouraging sign for challenger Julie Bornstein in her battle to unseat Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs), according to Bornstein campaign manager Walter Ludwig.
In both 2004 and 2006, registered Republicans accounted for about 54 percent of early voters, compared with just 34 percent for Democrats. Mack, now a four-term incumbent, cruised to re-election both years by more than 20 points.
This year, early voting is much more evenly split. The latest numbers from the Riverside County Registrar of Voters show that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by just five percent among early voters.
It's like the entire Republican machine all collapsed at once. They used to be MASTERS at getting absentee votes out. This year, there's either no such effort, or it's being matched by Democrats. CA-45 is under the radar, but these numbers suggest that it shouldn't be.
• CA-46: At the Great Orange Satan, Devilstower has a great piece that could start a new meme about Debbie Cook - the anti-Palin.
Suppose there was a candidate who was as bright and as capable as Sarah Palin is confused and incompetent.
Someone who had a record of working with environmental groups, and who had a real understanding of the threat posed by our dependence on fossil fuels. Someone with a degree in earth science and the long experience to make the claim of being a genuine energy expert.
Someone who not only knew science, but also had a law degree, and was a graduate of the leadership program at the Kennedy School of Government. Someone who has held positions of honor in state and national commissions. Someone who was well respected for both her intellect and her passion.
Suppose there was a candidate who had been mayor of, not a tiny town, but a medium-sized city. And suppose she took that position as a Democrat in the midst of a heavily Republican district.
Suppose there was someone who was everything that Sarah Palin is not.
• AD-78: Bill Cavala, who worked the last close race in this district, took a peek at some new registration numbers which show a real advantage for Marty Block:
This year the new registration 'close' figures show the Democrats with 101, 131 registrants, an increase of about 4100 from the last Presidential year. DTS registrations are 49,855, an increase of about 5800 from 2004. Most remarkably, however, Republican registration has fallen by almost 8000 - from 82,615 four years ago to 74,700 today.
This means the net change is Dems up 4100 and Reps down 8000 or 12,100 in favor of the Democrat over 2004.
Forget the increase in DTS registrations - which vote more Democratic than Republican in San Diego. Starting out down 12,000 in a seat where they won by 2000 with an incumbent - it's open this year - puts the Republican candidate squarely behind the 8 ball.
Just one of the many Assembly races where this is so.
Charlie Cook, the favored Congressional tipster for insiders, is notoriously conservative in his selections. And as such, he's slow to recognize races that, based on outdated fundamentals, simply "can't" be competitive. It's embarrassing that it's taken him this long to move CA-04 to a toss-up. Here's his precis:
CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) Lean Republican to Toss Up
All GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock needed to do to put this district away was to run ads noting Democratic nominee Charlie Brown's attendance at anti-war rallies. The only problem? McClintock ran out of money too soon and has been inexplicably "dark" on broadcast television in the final phase of the campaign, allowing Brown and the DCCC to remain in strong contention by portraying McClintock as a carpetbagger and self-serving career politician.
Republicans in Washington fret that McClintock has run a second rate campaign and that even with an extensive statewide fundraising network, he has failed to put together a competent media strategy. The NRCC, too broke to come to McClintock's rescue, is also off the air in the expensive Sacramento market. Some Republicans suggest that in the end, their biggest advantage in this district may be the presence of Proposition 8, a measure to eliminate same-sex marriage, on the California ballot. This race should be a slam dunk for the GOP, but right now it is a toss up.
First of all, there's no way that misleading anti-war rally attack would have derailed the Brown campaign. Most of the country is against the war. But putting that aside, Cook shares my astonishment that Mr. Fiscal Conservative McClintock managed to run out of money weeks before the race was over. That is some epic mismanagement.
Cook is wrong about another thing, the NRCC is trying to ride to the rescue, up with a new ad trying to paint Brown as a "liberal yes man." I just don't think this is the year to throw around the "L" word like it's some kind of boogeyman. Anyway, don't they know that these days, you're supposed to call the Democrat a socialist or a Marxist? Looking at the ad, it looks like the NRCC and McClintock went Dutch on it.
The point is that the GOP hasn't totally given up on this race, and while I'm confident in Brown's abilities he could definitely use some reinforcements in the final week. You can give at the Calitics ActBlue page.
There's so much going on in this bounty of close races, it's hard to follow it all as just lil' ol' me and without a full-time staff. But clearly, California is terribly broken because there are no competitive seats and so we must change the redistricting process and re-gerrymander competitiveness into them. Right? On the flip, I offer an update on every seat that's even reasonably close. I'll get to the Assembly and Senate races later today or tomorrow.
CA-11, CA-04, CA-03, CA-46, CA-50 and much more on the flip! Including the infamous "phone sex robocall"... no, I'm not kidding.
The biggest newspaper in the region, the Sacramento Bee, makes the case for Charlie Brown and a new direction in the district, particularly on the area of putting pragmatism above ideology. Now, I don't totally agree with all the conclusions of the editorial, but the last bit is unquestionably true:
Brown understands that the that the mortgage crisis, the collapse of the financial system, the credit crunch and the recession are real. He would have supported the rescue plan because doing nothing was worse than doing something, though he believes Congress has done a poor job of selling the package. And the final package assured taxpayers get any profits, required congressional oversight, banned golden parachutes.
This is telling. McClintock sticks to ideology; Brown pragmatically puts the nation first.
The nation and the 4th District need to find ways out of partisan and ideological gridlock. Elect Charlie Brown to Congress.
Now, if the final package wasn't such a dog with fleas that the feds have basically scrapped it, and if the banks weren't using it to collect free money instead of facilitating lending, this would be a stronger argument. Whatever; the Bee's endorsements have been profoundly odd, and have seemed to value bipartisan seriousness over everything. But I think there's a difference between rejecting partisanship and abandoning core principles. I think that Charlie Brown will govern the way he has campaigned, by working through problems and using his best judgment based on his values and principles. Tom McClintock is incapable of adapting to changing information whatsoever.
What he will do is try to play dirty to win the election, including sending nasty robocalls throughout the district because they're cheap for his cash-strapped campaign. The problem is that they haven't done a good job of checking their call lists. The Brown campaign, for example, got robocalled.
UPDATE: The latest poll shows Brown expanding his slim but measurable lead.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/23-25 results)
McClintock (R) 42 (41)
Brown (D) 48 (46)
Among early voters (13 percent of respondents)
McClintock (R) 38
Brown (D) 56
Brown takes independents 51-34. McClintock's fav/unfav is at 44/42. Brown is at 49/29. And McClintock is out of the cash he'd need to push up Brown's unfavorables.
This is very good news. Let's get this seat. Stay for Change.
