Picking up on a diary from 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
Democratic "Super-PAC" goes after Lungren's anti-middle class record
by Brian Leubitz
House Majority PAC isn't necessarily a household name, but as one of the so-called "Super PACs" it will play a big role in the 2012 elections. And in one of their first major ad buys, they are looking at our very own CA-03. The new district is decidedly different than Lungren's old district, and Ami Bera continues to do well in the fundraising race.
Both Bera and Lungren reported large fundraising hauls in campaign finance filings due over the weekend. Lungren reported raising $596,228, closing the period that ended Sept. 30 with $421,888 in the bank. Bera raised $860,159, leaving him with $707,760 cash on hand. The Elk Grove doctor also reported about $250,000 in campaign debt, mostly from personal loans from 2010 his campaign has said he does not intend to get back. (SacBee)
Bera underperformed slightly in 2010 for the California race. However, 2012 is shaping up to be a very different year than 2010, and the presidential race will likely help Bera in this new district.
California is officially back in play with these new maps. We are likely to see several competitive races in 2012, something that we haven't really seen much since the 2002 maps.
(More great information - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.
With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.
The more I have spoken to people about what I can contribute to public policy and the more I have listened to their concerns, the clearer it has become that my best opportunity for service lies right here at home. Working to develop the new energy economy and the green jobs we need is the challenge I truly want to tackle. Consequently, I am ending my campaign for Congress and will turn my full attention to the tremendous opportunities facing SMUD and the alternative energy start-ups locating here.
The window of opportunity for establishing our region as one of the nation's hubs for this emerging industry will not stay open long. We have to seize the momentum now.
This morning I shared my decision to withdraw from the Congressional race with Dr. Ami Bera and offered him my support. I wish him well and look forward to working with him on these issues when he is our next Representative in Congress.
Bera, a doctor and former Chief Medical Officer for Sacramento County, now looks set to take on Dan Lungren. Lungren barely managed to squeak past an underfunded Bill Durston in 2008, and the district went for Obama. Bera, with his cash-on-hand totals now topping Lungren's totals could make this one of the more interesting races in the country.
UPDATE: I just got Dr. Bera's statement.
Bill Slaton has been a champion for renewable energy development and a strong leader in the community. I am honored to have his support as we work toward our shared goal-pushing aside partisanship and working to create jobs and opportunity for Californians. Bill's support will be critical as we continue to build momentum for the change we need in Congress.
Full email from Bill Slaton and press release from Ami Bera over the flip.
(Wow, CA-03 looks like it will be a top race to watch. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
UPDATE: Dan Lungren's data was just released, and once again Dr. Ami Bera has out raised Dan Lungren. This time, Bill Slaton has also outraised Lungren. Lungren raised $196,872.81 for a total of $443,718.52 Cash on hand. There are now two formidable opponents for Lungren. Unless the winning candidate drains his finances in the primary, Lungren will face a tough race in 2010.
It's 3rd Quarter fundraising number season for federal candidates, and the data is just beginning to trickle out in front of this week's deadline.
CA-03 is looking ever more intriguing, though. Dan Lungren pulled less than 50% in his 2008 victory over Bill Durston. However, Durston was always critically low on funding, and really didn't have the resources to get his message out.
However, if Dr. Ami Bera grabs the nomination, that will not happen this year. Bera, the former Chief Medical Officer for Sacramento County, released his fundraising results for the third quarter of 2009 today. Dr. Bera's campaign raised $335,443.00 between July 1st and September 30th. The campaign reported an impressive $585,787.00 in cash-on-hand at the end of the quarter.
Numbers for the other Democratic nominee, Bill Slaton, and Lungren are not yet available. Last quarter, Bera outraised Lungren, and was only behind in cash on hand by $36K. Slaton wasn't doing bad himself, but unless he really hit the gas on fundraising, Bera's big numbers might end up looking very formidable in a primary.
Money isn't everything, but for the Congressional campaign of a heretofore unknown candidate, you simply cannot win without substantial monetary resources.
I'll update with numbers from Slaton and Lungren when available.
UPDATE: Well, well, Slaton's numbers are also impressive. We might end up with an interesting primary in the district. From his press release:
Democratic candidate Bill Slaton reported adding $253,418 to his campaign coffers this quarter, bringing his total cash on hand to $398,506. Slaton, the SMUD Board Vice President, green energy advocate and entrepreneur, is running to challenge Republican Congressman Dan Lungren in California's 3rd District. 69% of the contributors are 3rd Congressional district residents.
All indications are that Gary Davis is dropping his bid for the 3rd Congressional District and switching to another run for Elk Grove City Council. Just a few minutes ago, I was alerted that his Facebook page had changed, and just after that was forwarded a copy of a newsletter from Gary Davis - Elk Grove City Council announcing his run for the council. The logo was even the same as his congressional campaign logo - changed to Elk Grove City Council - of course.
Davis had trouble keeping up with the other two candidates, Bill Slaton and Ami Bera, in fundraising. With Q3 just ending, obviously it wasn't happening for him, so he cut his losses.
Bera, a doctor who challenged incumbent Dan Lungren directly at a town hall meeting in August, has raised the most cash so far, but Slaton entered the race just a few weeks before last quarter's deadline, so we'll see.
While CQ Politics lists the CA-03 race as leans Republican, Lungren has not been offered help by national Republicans in their next campaign arm fundraiser. Only Mary Bono Mack of CA-45 figures in that fundraiser. That's probably more a function of Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet outraising Bono Mack last quarter - she needs the help more than Lungren in the money chase. But overall, I'd still mark CA-03 as a top target seat in 2010, with CA-45 next on the list. And Democrats know this.
Dr. Ami Bera approaches health care as one would expect of a doctor; with compassion and a desire to make well.
"I trained to be a physician to take care of people," he says. It's an attitude he will carry with him when we elect him to congress. Compassion, caring, a person centered approach to solving the very significant issues facing the American people is what we will get with Ami Bera.
"Health care is not a lottery," Bera told a group of about 50 people gathered in Rancho Cordova to hear his views on health care. But some people want to treat it that way. Health insurance is the ticket. If you have one, maybe you win something. If you don't - well, you don't.
Calitics doesn't allow my CSS formatting code for photos and text. Read the rest at California Notes.
Brian is wrong, that does not take care of the horse race for the day! Today is the deadline for Congressional incumbents and challengers to declare their fundraising totals for the second quarter of 2009, and some numbers on the California candidates jump out. If I write "incomplete," that's because their FEC report hasn't popped up yet. I'll fill in when they become available:
We'll start with the special election in CA-10:
John Garamendi: $300,000 raised, $260,000 CoH, $54,000 debt
Mark DeSaulnier: incomplete $212,000 raised, $136,000 CoH, $77,000 debt
Joan Buchanan: incomplete $64,000 raised, $179,000 CoH, $308,000 debt
Anthony Woods: $105,000 raised, $65,000 CoH
Adriel Hampton: incomplete $22,500 raised, $269.77 CoH, $346.82 debt
Waiting on more info on this one. John Garamendi's number came from 350 people, almost $1,000 a head. That suggests no grassroots fundraising base. Anthony Woods had over twice as many donors, who could be tapped again. UPDATE: OK, this is interesting. Joan Buchanan raised a fairly paltry amount considering the primary is in six weeks, but she took out a $250,000 loan and has a significant amount of debt. She seems to be blowing through operating expenses too. Likewise, Mark DeSaulnier, who raised a decent amount, has over half of his cash on hand in debt. And I missed that John Garamendi has $50,000 in debt as well. Suddenly, Anthony Woods has more debt-free cash on hand than anyone in the field but Garamendi.
CA-03:
Gary Davis: $34,000 raised, $30,000 CoH
Dr. Amerish Bera: $288,000 raised, $286,000 CoH
Dan Lungren (inc.): incomplete $233,000 raised, $322,000 CoH
Bill Slaton: $113,000 raised, $224,000 CoH, $116,000 debt
That is an eye-popping number for Amerish Bera, and lest you see it as a doctor self-funding, only $4,800 came from the candidate. I was shocked by that total. We'll see what Dan Lungren ends up raising later today, but it's entirely possible that Bera will have MORE cash on hand than the incumbent (Lungren only had $121,000 on hand at the end of April, with $12,000 in debts). Wow. UPDATE So Bera outraised Lungren, but he ekes out a cash on hand lead. As an incumbent, however, that's a weak performance. UPDATE II: Bill Slaton claimed to some that he raised $227,000 in three weeks, but half of that comes in the form of a personal loan to the campaign. His actual cash on hand is much less than Bera. But $113,000 in three weeks isn't bad.
CA-45:
Steve Pougnet: $201,000 raised, $203,000 CoH
Mary Bono Mack (inc): $166,000 raised, $448,000 CoH
Steve Pougnet outraised the incumbent in Q2, which is quite impressive. Mary Bono Mack starts out with a bigger war chest, so he has some work to do, but this is an excellent start, and I think Pougnet has a natural fundraising base that will only expand once his story gets out.
CA-44:
Bill Hedrick: $65,000 raised, $66,000 CoH
Ken Calvert (inc.): incomplete $407,000 raised, $384,000 CoH
Certainly an improvement over the first quarter for Bill Hedrick, and all of the money came from Southern California, which means he has a solid fundraising and volunteer base locally. He needs to spread that out nationally to maximize his potential in this winnable race.
Believe it or not, Dreier actually had a much bigger war chest last cycle. Russ Warner needs to do better to be competitive, but he's actually in a slightly better position than two years ago.
This was a tough quarter for Krom, with the tragic death of her son taking up a lot of time in the final weeks. Campbell ramped up his fundraising a bit after Krom beat him in the last quarter.
A solid quarter of fundraising for Francine Busby, notwithstanding that police action at one of her fundraisers while guests were pepper sprayed. UPDATE: Brian Bilbray had a good quarter.
The field is still getting together in this race, but I wanted to see Elton Gallegly's fundraising output, which is somewhat pathetic. He does have enough of a war chest that he doesn't necessarily need to get moving on that yet, however.
UPDATE the last: Swing State Project has a full roundup with a number of other interesting tidbits.
• In CA-04, Tom McClintock raised a bundle - $341,000 - but he still has over $100,000 in outstanding debt and only $245,000 CoH. Some fiscal conservative.
• In CA-10, one Republican is showing financial viability, David Harmer, with a $175,000 haul (but that's based on the first six months, not just the quarter). He has $144,000 CoH and $17,000 in outstanding debt. And his ideological viability in that district is, shall we say, suspect, though he is likely to reach a runoff.
• In CA-11, which I think is safe, Jerry McNerney raised $288,000 and has $519,000 cash on hand. One of his potential opponents, Brad Goehring, would seem to have a good financial position with $259,000 CoH, but he only raised $14,000 for the quarter and has $250,000 in debt due to a massive loan. The same with Jon Del Arroz, who guaranteed a huge loan for himself and has as much in debt as he does in cash on hand. These guys are wasting money, in my opinion.
• I added Ken Calvert's numbers in CA-44. Clearly the NRCC is protecting him by bolstering his fundraising.
• CA-47 is on the fringe of being competitive, but Van Tran had a good quarter, beating Loretta Sanchez (barely) in fundraising:
We're setting a course for the center of the sun in the state budget process right now, but today is also the last day of the second quarter, an important day for Congressional candidates, who must file fundraising reports based on close of business today. So this is as good a time as any to take a look at the Congressional races and where we stand at this point. I have not yet done similar roundups for 2010 statewide offices or legislative races, but plan to do so in the near future. If you find any of these challenges attractive, I urge you to pass a few bucks along to the candidate of your choice. This quarter will help or hurt the candidacies in terms of their perception of viability.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link. Open Congress also has a good Wiki on all the seats involved.
I've been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain's closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.
(More good stuff. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock's less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
Randy Bayne reports that Gary Davis, a member of the Elk Grove City Council, has announced that he will run against Dan Lungren in CA-03. He's unveiled an official campaign website named Davis Beats Lungren, which certainly displays confidence.
Davis also works as the Political Director for EdVoice in addition to serving on the Elk Grove City Council, and was a legislative director for Darrell Steinberg when he served in the State Assembly. EdVoice has lined up on the "reformer" side of the divide inside the Democratic Party over education, supporting charter schools and vouchers, and often raising the ire of teacher's unions. CEOs like Reed Hastings of Netflix and Don Fisher of the Gap fund EdVoice, and they have played in many local races with independent expernditure money. See this very lame EdVoice attack on eventual winner Mariko Yamada used in AD-08 last cycle on behalf of Christopher Cabaldon for an example. Simply put, EdVoice has used deep pockets to try and become a special interest player in Sacramento, with mixed results.
I've been adamant that we need a real candidate in CA-03 to take advantage of this opportunity in that district. I still believe Phil Angelides, who has been unusually active in the special election battle (advocating a No vote, I might add), could make a good fit here. Hopefully, I'll have a chance to talk to Davis in the next couple weeks, but his association with EdVoice doesn't exactly make me leap to the phone to make a donation.
In 2006 and 2008 Dr. Bill Durston stepped up to the plate and ran for CD-03. He ran unopposed in the primary leaving him to work on name recognition, voter registration and building his support for the general election. All much needed activities when you're running against Dan Lungren.
Until recently there has been no clear candidate in the 3rd. A few weeks ago I heard from Gary Davis, an Elk Grove City Councilman. He told me he was looking at running. Haven't heard from him until he sent me an email this evening. This weekend at the state convention I met Dr. Amerish Bera. He has filed papers to run and is making the rounds visiting clubs and Central Committees. On the side is the distraction with the attempt to draft Lt. Gov. John Garamendi to run in CD-03 instead of CD-10. A race that was fairly quiet is getting noisy.
The Internet moves at, well, Internet speed, so parts of my House race roundup were already out of date or incomplete by the time I published it. So here's an update on a few races.
• CA-10: John Garamendi announced a significant series of national labor endorsements for the upcoming CA-10 race, despite Mark DeSaulnier having locked up the Contra Costa County Central Labor Committee endorsement and the local Building Trades (which cover almost 100 local unions) and chairing the Senate Labor Committee. They include:
AFSCME: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
CNA: California Nurses Association
CFT: California Federation of Teachers
UFCW: United Food & Commercial Workers
CSEA: California School Employees Association
Laborers International Union of North America
International Union of Operating Engineers
CWA: Communication Workers of America
Many of those can provide PAC money, resources and support to Garamendi, leveling the playing field in a race where DeSaulnier captured all the early endorsements.
• CA-03: I passed on the rumor about Phil Angelides and CA-03 in my roundup, but local blogger Randy Bayne dismisses that report and notes that Elk Grove City Councilman Gary Davis will likely run, having met with the DCCC and begun the process of putting a team together. I don't agree with Bayne that a contested primary (Dr. Amerish Bera has also announced) would impact negatively on the race. Especially when the candidates have low name ID, a primary can increase their public profile and show them to be a "winner" in front of the district, at the end. Momentum can build. Primaries don't necessarily have to be nasty and debilitating, and I fail to understand why anyone would reject them out of hand.
Incidentally, I never took much stock in the rumor about Angelides, I simply thought it would be a decent line of inquiry, given his name ID, fundraising ability and progressive profile.
On the heels of an election marked by a dismal performance among Asian voters, top Republicans are aggressively recruiting California Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American, to challenge Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) next year.
If elected, Tran would be the second Vietnamese-American in Congress, after Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-La.), who won his seat in a 2008 election.
Tran has already been feted at the National Republican Congressional Committee's March fundraising dinner as a guest of the committee's recruitment chairman, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), and he was encouraged to run by House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Eric Cantor. He also made a trip to Washington after last November's election to meet with officials from the NRCC.
Even Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has assisted in the recruitment process, meeting with Tran and offering support for any potential candidacy. Tran was an outspoken backer of McCain's 2008 presidential campaign and helped him carry Orange County over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary.
What the story fails to mention is that, not only does Tran not have full support among the Vietnamese community in the district, not only does Loretta Sanchez have experience easily defeating Vietnamese challengers, but Tran didn't even do that well in his own Assembly race last year, winning over 55% of the vote against Ken Arnold. If Tran is one of the Republicans' top recruits, they're in even bigger trouble than I thought. Incidentally, Sanchez' voting record has greatly improved over the past couple years.
• CA-50: I should have cited Francine Busby's Firedoglake chat from a couple weeks ago. I don't think I agree with her on this, though:
I've alway said that the Latino voters have to organize register and educate from within their own community. I see more activism and organizing going on than I did before. In fact, I will be attending a meeting on Monday of the reconstituted Latino American Democratic Club in Oceanside. We may have a strong Latina running for a state office who can rally the base. Also, Bilbray is their worst nightmare, so I expect that to motivate them to get out to vote. I reach out to leaders in the community as much as possible to maintain good communications and understanding.
Outreach consists of more than "hopefully they'll self-organize." You need to actually engage the Latino community instead of hoping some other local candidate can do it for you. Not a good sign.
In 2007-08, I wrote a monthly series of House race roundups here in California, taking a look at the races with the highest potential to change members of Congress. This cycle, there are promises from the national Democrats that they will pay attention to a number of seats in California held by Republicans, and with the statewide races at the top of the ticket looking favorable for Democrats, and Republican registration collapsing throughout the state, in theory we should see some more movement. But many of these elements were true the past two cycles, amounting to little. Because it's a statewide officer election year, I will also do a statewide races roundup at a later time. But for now, let's take a look at the seats most likely to flip in 2010, starting with seats currently held by Democrats, few of which are in play. In addition to those "threatened" by Republicans, I'm including two seats where I've heard rumblings about primary challenges to incumbents.
A word on the notations. PVI refers to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. I've also included the Presidential performance from last year and the particular Congressional performance, where applicable. That information is available for the whole nation at this link.
There have been a few voices suggesting California Lt. Governor John Garamendi abandon his bid to replace Liebermanesque Ellen Tauscher and instead run in California's third congressional district against Dan Lungren.
And if you are a Democrat - especially a Progressive Democrat - that is good news. Strategically, such a move would be counterproductive for Democrats.
It Makes No Sense for California Democrats
The biggest problem in California is the Republican Veto. This means that Democrats may have a majority in the legislature, but not a functioning majority. With the artificial budget control by Republicans, it actually hurts Democrats if a legislator ascends to congress in a Special Election. With state Senator Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan both running for Tauscher's seat, in all likelihood a Democratic legislator will win unless Garamendi runs.
With his fourth run for Governor failing to get traction, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi yesterday announced his plan to run for Congress in the East Bay's 10th District - in a special election to replace Ellen Tauscher. On name recognition alone, Garamendi will be the front-runner in a crowded field - although State Senator Mark DeSaulnier has key endorsements that will make it competitive. But while running for Congress is a smart move for Garamendi, it would be far better for Democrats - and progressive politics - for him to run in District 3 against Republican incumbent Dan Lungren. Tauscher's seat is safe for Democrats regardless of who runs in the special election, while Garamendi is probably one of the few candidates who can win District 3. He has deep roots in the 3rd District - which includes a large swath of the Sacramento suburbs, along with Garamendi's native Calaveras County. It is traditionally a "red" district, but Barack Obama carried it last November - and Lungren came unexpectedly close to losing to an under-funded Democratic challenger. At a time when Democratic activists are pushing the Party to take back "Red California," Garamendi's choice of districts could not be more disheartening and misguided. Expect this to become an issue at this weekend's State Democratic Convention.
(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
In 2006 and 2008 Dr. Bill Durston stepped up to the plate and ran for CD-03. He ran unopposed in the primary leaving him to work on name recognition, voter registration and building his support for the general election. All much needed activities when you're running against Dan Lungren.
