In 2006, a corrupt GOP lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, took over the congressional seat of another corrupt GOP lobbyist, Duke Cunningham. Both are buddies of Jack Abramoff. Bilbray faces a tough re-election fight this year against Nick Leibham.
Let's help get Nick Leibham elected. Nick was a high school teacher (he taught government and U.S. history) and criminal prosecutor for the County of San Diego. (After the fold, I'll provide a little more background about Nick Leibham and what he stands for, and what he's up against.)
DONATE TODAY to help Nick Leibham (and other forgotten candidates).
In addition to donating, please help optimize this article about Brian Bilbray, who is the incumbent GOP congressman. (To help do this, simply link to the articles on your own blogs / blogrolls / websites just like I did, using Brian Bilbray as the link text.)
Dave noted today in the quick hits that Brian Bilbray's refusal to set foot in the district to debate Nick Leibham will be met with Bilbray chicken sandwiches and a campaign volunteer in a chicken suit. Now we have yet another example of Bilbray refusing to go anywhere near the people he's supposed to represent.
The Men's Club of Congregation Beth Israel in the 50th district had, until recently, been working on putting together a town hall for both camps. But via email comes the news that the event "had to be cancelled because of the lack of participation of the Bilbray campaign."
Ouch. It's one thing to be out of touch, it's quite another to flat out refuse to acknowledge or engage your constituents. Bilbray is terrified of his record and knows full well that it's dramatically outside the mainstream of the district and the country. So his strategy is simply to hide and hope nobody notices. Not only is he chicken, but he's insulting the intelligence of every voter in the district by taking up this strategy. The "maybe nobody will notice I'm selling the country down the river" notion is flat out offensive and should be a devastating embarrassment.
If you're too chicken to face the voters, it might be time to double check exactly what the heck you're doing in Washington. [Update] I should also mention that the GOP "drill now, who cares if it'll work" cabal who are holding sham sessions in the House aren't doing so hot. One has already lost a primary because he was in the pocket of big oil and others can't stay interested long enough to miss their golf outings.
I mentioned on Monday that Nick Leibham would be offering gas to residents of the 50th district discounted to the price in April 1996 when Big Oil first started funneling money to Brian Bilbray.
Today, ExxonMobil posted $11.7 billion in second quarter profits, the all-time record for a U.S. Company, so the $182,818 that Bilbray has received from oil companies throughout his career may seem like a drop in the bucket. But he's certainly delivered time and again for Big Oil: Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act (Use It or Lose It): No. Drill Responsibly in Leased Lands Act: No. Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act: No. Energy Independence and Security Act: No.
The response yesterday was- perhaps unsurprisingly- huge. Leibham's campaign manager described to me "lines down the road...people were so enthusiastic." Because pain at the pump is inescapable, it's immediate, it's obvious, and it's not a complicated issue. There's a clear choice being presented between the failed policies of the past- more drilling, and the policies of progress- investment in new and renewable energy, use of existing drilling leases, the elimination of tax breaks for Big Oil.
This is a race that's often flown under the radar in online circles, but with Bilbray refusing to even enter his district in order to defend his extremist voting record, it could get pretty interesting. Bilbray is desperate to avoid engaging on real issues, crowing about a veterans memorial but voting to continue the Iraq debacle and voting against the new GI Bill. Every chance he gets to bring about positive change, Bilbray stands in opposition. But when he can stand far outside his district and lob rhetoric, he's all for it.
While Bilbray continues to work against Americans, Nick Leibham got out, in the district, and did something that would actually help a little bit. It isn't much, but it's not supposed to be a solution. What it was supposed to be- and succeeded in being- is a sharp line of contrast between the priorities of these two candidates.
One of and for the people, the other bought and paid to oppose the people.
So he came all the way back to San Diego and didn't go to his district. Why? So that he could burnish his fake-environmentalist credentials by...celebrating the destruction of local wetlands. Now this might be a bit confusing if you've been receiving any of Bilbray's official franking mail recently, because they claim he's "keeping our beaches and water clean." Except of course that he's not. It's convenient though- he can send these barely-legal and completely dishonest mail pieces from DC so he never has to go to the district and face the voters, then he can come to San Diego and claim he's been to town even though his event isn't in the district and directly contradicts his mailers, and then he can go back to DC hoping that everyone noticed a little bit but not too much. Because it probably wouldn't be too good for him if people looked very closely at him or his voting record.
It's been more than 12 years since Brian Bilbray first took money from Big Oil to fund his political career. Back then, gas was $1.27/gallon in the 50th district, and after a dozen years of Bilbray and his Big Oil Republican buddies, gas is well over $4/gallon. Bilbray and his cronies think the solution is to give more tax dollars to oil companies, which makes sense since that money comes back as campaign contributions- a convenient way to launder taxes into re-election funds and not actually address gas prices in any way.
Nick Leibham just outraised Bilbray int he second quarter and is spreading a bit of that cash around as direct relief to drivers in the district. This Wednesday (July 30), Leibham will roll back gas prices at three gas stations in the 50th to $1.27, just like it was before Big Oil laid down the money to push Bilbray into office. This was a HUGE success in 2006 when Larry Kissell did it in North Carolina. More than 500 people showed up for the cheap gas, snarling traffic and bringing in police to wrangle the crowds. It's a great time to be punching holes in Brian Bilbray's absurd claim of being good on environmental and energy issues. Just a quick check of his recent voting record exposes how bad it is. Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act (Use It or Lose It): No. Drill Responsibly in Leased Lands Act: No. Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act: No. Energy Independence and Security Act: No.
Bad for the environment, bad for safe energy, bad for energy security, bad for creating new jobs in energy. And this guy's supposed to be a friend of the environment and renewable energy? No.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
Two more Democratic challengers have outraised their incumbent opponents in the second quarter. That doesn't happen very often, and it's not supposed to in the supposedly impenetrably gerrymandered state of California. But as I've been saying, this is a different year.
In CA-50, I've been informed that Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray by $245K-$210K in the second quarter. From the release:
Challenger Nick Leibham raised more money than Congressman Brian Bilbray in this fundraising quarter, according to FEC reports. Leibham raised $245,504 while Bilbray managed $210,315. The quarter spanned from April 1, 2008-June 31, 2008.
"Any time that you out raise an incumbent, especially someone like Brian Bilbray who has taken over $180,000 in campaign contributions from Big Oil, it gives the campaign a huge amount of momentum," said Leibham. "This is the clearest sign yet that the voters of the 50th are ready for change and I'm honored that so many of them are willing to contribute to our effort."
Leibham has $266K cash on hand, compared to $528K for Bilbray.
In CA-46, there is similarly good news about Debbie Cook so I'll let it speak for itself:
Debbie Cook Raises More Than Rohrabacher For The Second Straight Quarter
Democratic Congressional nominee Debbie Cook announced today that she raised more campaign funds than Dana Rohrabacher in the latest reporting period, making it the second quarter in a row she's out-raised the nine-term incumbent.
Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, out-raised Rohrabacher by more than $10,000. Cook raised $92,900 to Rohrabacher's $78,712.
Cook has $97K CoH. 70% of her donors are local, meaning she has grassroots support AND that she has limitless potential if she can tap into netroots energy and build a national fundraising base. She will be appearing at Netroots Nation.
Both of these are, in some respect, a reflection of two lazy incumbents. Bilbray and particularly Rohrabacher aren't paying any attention to fundraising. But there's not going to be any NRCC money forthcoming if these two get in trouble. There's not going to be any expansion of their donor base. So while both have cash reserves (Bilbray has about $528K CoH, Rohrabacher has $387K), they aren't overwhelming, and both Leibham and Cook ought to be somewhat competitive financially.
This is nothing like CA-26, where David Dreier has $1.9 million in the bank. (Russ Warner's numbers aren't out yet.)
More numbers:
CA-45: Bornstein raised a little over $96,000, has $121K CoH. No numbers for Mary Bono yet.
CA-03: Bill Durston raised around $125K, has $188K CoH. Nice haul for him. Dan Lungren raised $173K, has $615K CoH.
CA-52: Mike Lumpkin raised $128K but only has $53K CoH.
UPDATE: Russ Warner's numbers have come through.
CA-26: Warner raised $162K in Q2, $125K CoH (with $73,000 in debts; ouch.); Dreier raised $277K in Q2, $1.9million CoH, no debts.
It's a question that I've been contemplating and broaching in conversations since June 3 which was, to put it mildly, a disaster for Democrats of San Diego. In a Democratic majority city, the official mayoral nominee of the Democratic Party received 6.3% of the vote. The contested Democratic primary in the 50th Congressional District received in total just 70% of the votes that incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray received running unopposed. In the 52rd district, Democratic candidates combined for 81% of the total received by Duncan Hunter Jr. himself in a four-way primary.
Not a single Democratic challenger to the Board of Supervisors reached 30% of the vote. One fresh face was added to the Unified School Board- running unopposed. Democrats could not force a runoff in all four City Council races or reach 50% in any, leaving a very real possibility that Dems will lose control of the nominally non-partisan Council in November. Dems in the race for City Attorney split the vote three ways, allowing Republican Jan Goldsmith to slide into pole position for the November runoff against incumbent Mike Aguirre who clocked in at under 29%. Heck, the Chair of the San Diego Democratic Party came in 7th in a vote-for-six race for Central Committee (and then won a DNC spot over the weekend). I could go on.
Each of these races on their own might be justified. But when it represents the entire strength that the San Diego Democratic Party can muster in the midst of a pro-Democratic tide across the country larger than anyone has seen in decades, it's cause for concern. So what happened? Washburn offers a few thoughts as do I:
One of the most glaring issues is money. As Washburn notes,
In a little noticed vote yesterday, the Merida Initiative passed easily through the House of Representatives 311-106. It provides $1.6 billion with an emphasis on training and equipment to fight drug cartels in Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America, because as Rep. Brian Bilbray explained:
"Either we can go after these cartels in Ensenada, or we can fight them in Escondido," said Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad), who voted for the plan. "I'd prefer that we move now and take care of this problem south of the border. The drug wars in Mexico and in other regions have grown horrendously violent, and their destructive ways must be quashed."
We've known for years now that Brian Bilbray doesn't actually live in the 50th district. It's a given, it's ridiculous, and it should be an embarrassment. But apparently his contempt for the district doesn't end there.
After Democratic challenger Nick Leibham challenged Bilbray to a series of debates, Bilbray's campaign responded with an insistence on radio and TV debates only, with a preference for radio. Why? Because "radio debates would enable Bilbray to participate from Washington."
That's right. Bilbray won't even come to the district to campaign for re-election. He's too busy voting the failed GOP party line nearly 92% of the time to swing through the district he claims to represent and engage in a debate of the issues. Just to see if perhaps he had alternate in-district plans, I swung by his re-election website. The Event page is a veritable beehive of activity, reading (in its entirety) "For questions call 619-234-0231"
We already know that Bilbray is ashamed of his record in Washington, but it's still amazing that it's so difficult to get him to even show his face in the district.
Finally, Brian Bilbray and I agree on something. I've been saying it for years, but apparently he's only now coming around: he should be ashamed of his record, and now that he's up for re-election, suddenly he is.
During his chat with the U-T's Logan Jenkins, he falls all over himself trying to demonstrate that he's not a partisan hack who's married to Bush's failed policies (except when he's to the RIGHT of Bush). He talks about working with Democrat Heath Shuler on immigration reform, thinking that it moderates his well-documented immigration insanity and fealty to his corporate sponsors. He recalls clean beach legislation that he cosponsored...in 2000. Without mentioning that he's desperate to abandon all environmental standards to help build an ineffectual border wall.
But here's where the beauty of the current political landscape kicks in. After claiming that the string of Dem wins in special elections have nothing to do with the 50th (apparently everything he doesn't like is a fluke- he's got the spin down), he dramatically tries to break from the Republican brand:
"I don't work for anyone but the 50th," he told me. "I didn't swear to uphold some Republican agenda."
This from the guy who votes with the Republican Party 91.8% of the time and has seen his (reasonable-for-a-Republican) lifetime Progressive Punch score of 12.93% drop more dramatically than anyone else in Congress- this term his rating is at 5.25%. Now these aren't the only metrics out there, but it's hardly the profile of a legitimate across-the-aisle legislator. This is a man who was elected in 2006 on his perceived moderate credentials only to arrive in DC and enable Bush policies and the broader pro-corporatist politics of fear and repression. He knows that won't fly in a district full of politically reasonable people, so he's trying to keep up the smoke and mirrors as long as possible. Trouble is, while he's astute enough to realize he should be ashamed of his record, that doesn't change reality.
Bilbray's made his GOP-enabling bed. Now he has to live with the consequences.
Continuing with Dave's election theme from earlier, the first numbers that I've seen on general election matchups in CA-50 arrived in my inbox earlier today. They're from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and were commissioned by the Nick Leibham campaign. They run the gamut from the district as a whole to specific matchups, but let's not lose focus on the contested Democratic primary being settled on June 3 between Leibham and Cheryl Ede. However, many of these numbers have more to do with Bilbray, the district, and it being a bad year to be a Republican.
If nothing else, it's an indicator that the district is open to a Democrat. Meanwhile, Rep. Brian Bilbray's re-elect is at an uninspiring 42%.
Definitely re-elect: 15%
Probably re-elect: 27%
Probably vote for someone else: 18%
Definitely vote for someone else: 21%
Other/DK: 20%
42 is not a good number, especially at this point. While there are some who will come home to the GOP eventually, that's a lot of persuadable voters and a lot of people who aren't too impressed with Bilbray.
Since this was a Leibham poll, they obviously polled the general matchup, which I suppose helps feed fundraising and a "I'm the one who can win" primary frame. Initial numbers came out:
Bilbray: 52%
Leibham: 34%
Undecided: 13%
So plenty of ground to make up, but a district that's open to someone who's not a nutjob like Brian Bilbray. It was neck and neck after a bio read, but I don't put a lot of stock in bio read numbers for predicative purposes: The bio doesn't matter until people know it. Once they know it, the shift will show in the base numbers.
But this far out, this is looking like a race that can and should be competitive for the eventual Democratic nominee. Bilbray has staked his claim on being even crazier than George Bush and John McCain. If that's what he wants to be judged on, then let's give him a run for it.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
Does anybody remember when Brian Bilbray sold himself as a moderate? I know it seems like a lifetime ago (or maybe some sort of absurd dream), but it was just 1995 that he first went to Congress. And I've heard the stories from reasonable people with clear eyes about how once he was (relatively) a champion of the environment, particularly clean beaches and water. He was (and perhaps still is) a surfer and lifeguard after all. And yet, it's not at all surprising that he was doing rhetorical backflips in celebration yesterday when Homeland Security decided to waive 30 federal and state environmental laws in order to more quickly build 670 miles of border fence:
"It's great. This is the priority area where most of the illegal activity is going on and where most of the deaths are occurring," said Rep. Brian P. Bilbray (R-Solana Beach), chairman of the Immigration Reform Caucus. "The quicker we can get the physical fence up, the sooner we'll avoid situations like the deaths of agents. And it's still a national security issue. You just have to stop this kind of open traffic along the border."
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
I shared breakfast with Nick Leibham last week and discussed where he stands on a number of issues. I mostly just lobbed topics and let him talk; this is the relevant transcript edited to be a remotely reasonable length and minus fun stuff like us chatting with the waitress and our occasional divergence into non-relevant shop talk. Some parts I liked, some parts less so. But here it is. Note this is a contested primary.
Iraq
Each and every day we remain in Iraq we're compromising our national security further. It's a blood feud that goes back 1400 years between the Sunnis and Shiites. American military forces are not going to be able to sort this out for them and at the end of the day they've got to want peace; they've got to want their own stable form of government; they've got to want democracy more than the American Marine Corps wants it for them
The longer that we're there, the more strain it puts on our own men and women in uniform. They're going out on third, fourth, fifth tours of duty, and you read about it all the time of course because we're just miles away from Camp Pendleton
We need to come out and we need to set a date certain for when we are going to redeploy out of Iraq.
Brian Bilbray really likes to grandstand on immigration. Heck, he was a lobbyist for an anti-immigration group. And last year, along with Bush Dog Heath Shuler, he introduced HR 4088. A quick take on HR 4088 from NDN:
Unfortunately, H.R. 4088 is not a solution or even a stop-gap measure. If enacted, it would simply make a bad situation worse, providing a windfall to bad employers by making workers more exploitable, pushing them deeper underground and off the tax rolls. It would harm U.S. workers displaced by the flawed employment verification program, and waste even more U.S. tax dollars trying to detain and deport peaceful workers instead of focusing in on those who mean us harm.
Well, I bring this up because today the San Diego U-T has an article about how the decrease in cross-border traffic has hurt the economy of the border region:
The number of people crossing into the United States at San Ysidro has fallen 21.4 percent from a peak three years ago, a precipitous drop that economists and others attribute to frustrating border waits, dwindling tourism and a struggling U.S. economy.
***
"Between the border wait time and security issues, it is killing us," said Jason Wells, executive director of the Chamber of Commerce in San Ysidro, where an estimated 85 percent of the retail customer base consists of shoppers who cross from Mexico. "We've lost the casual crosser, the casual shopper, the casual tourist. The only crossers we have left are forced crossers, people that because of family or work have to cross."
But for so-called leaders like Bilbray, the politics is more important that the policy. And what does he care anyway, right? His donors aren't border crossers, and likely don't depend on the traffic for their livelihood. But the fact of the matter is that the increased scrutiny to cross the border hurts California's economy. Wait times easily exceed two hours, and in the end, crossing the border to save a bit of money or for higher quality products just isn't worth it.
Somehow we need to get past Bilbray-esque demagoguery, and try to find solutions that are based on sound policy, rather than fear-based politics.
By the by, one such solution, a new form of the Dream Act, was recently reintroduced to the state Senate by Gil Cedillo.
Wow! I get to play fangirl and get little taste of what it must be like to live in Iowa or New Hampshire today, as Howard Dean himself pays a visit to CA-50 to check up on things. A small group of volunteers were gathered at Nick Leibham's newly-opened campaign headquarters office in Encinitas. (Leibham is on the left, and of course Dean is on the right)
Apparently Dean was expecting an intimate meeting with just a few campaign staff, but indulged us with some photos, handshaking, and an impomptu speech. He talked about the successes--past, present and future--of the 50-state strategy, including the amazing gains that have been made in CA-50 and San Diego county generally. Dean is clearly very excited about--and invested in--turning this seat Blue. This race has been labeled a national top-40 race to watch by the DNC.
(bump cause I like congressional and numbers - promoted by Lucas O'Connor)
Turnout from Tuesday's primary by party. Every district with a Republican leaning PVI plus Barbara Lee just for fun and comparison's sake. Of the Republican leaning districts, Dem turnout was higher in 8 and close in several others. Might be an interesting November. Just sayin.
Numbers on the flip.
Update: I should have mentioned in the first place, there are still no Democratic candidates in CA-02, CA-19, CA-22, or CA-25. Turnout was dead even in the 19th and higher for Dems in the 25th, just for starters.
