Second high-profile Democrat enters race against Bilbray
There's been speculation for a while, but today Port Commissioner and former San Diego City Council President Scott Peters officially entered the race for the (new) 52nd Congressional District, challenging Brian Bilbray. He becomes the second high-profile Democrat in the race, joining former Assemblywoman Lori Saldana in the race.
From the Peters release:
"Some of our Representatives have worked within the Washington D.C. Beltway for so long, they've forgotten they work for the people back home," said Peters. "I will bring an independent, problem-solving approach to Washington to help end the gridlock that's hamstrung our current Congress."
"The American people, especially San Diegans, don't care as much about party politics as they care about their jobs, quality of life and their children's futures. They are embarrassed and worried that our national representatives can't put personal politics aside and put the people they represent first," he added.
"The unrelenting partisanship in Congress has put our economy at even greater risk at a time when families already face unemployment and uncertainty at levels most have never experienced" he said. "We deserve better."
The new 52nd was an immediate pickup target for Democrats as soon as redistricting maps went public, becoming much more of a swing district than in the past. The profile (via Meridian Pacific) is a tricky one: Obama won the district by 12 points, five points above the nation overall and in the same election, No on Prop 8 received a 52-46 advantage. However, both Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman carried the district handily in 2010, and Kamala Harris clocked in at a 13 point deficit. In other words -- a lot will depend on what the Obama/Presidential year boost shapes up to be in 2012.
It also draws two well-known Democrats in a city without all that many well known Democrats, making it likely that the dynamics of California's new top-two, 'jungle' primary will come into play. The announcement comes as House Speaker John Boehner came to town to headline a fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, underlining that Bilbray should have whatever funding he needs in the race and setting up fundraising capacity as a likely viability signal for the Democratic challengers.
This week, it's the 104th anniversary of Ellis Island's one-day peak - the day when more immigrants were welcomed than any other in American history. On April 17, 1907, 11,747 immigrants became Americans - and that was just at Ellis Island.
Today, 104 years later, America is stuck in the mud with a broken immigration system. Americans want reform that unites families, promotes fair employment practices, and restores America's place as a nation that welcomes those seeking freedom from persecution and a better way of life.
This week, Immigrants' List -- a bipartisan political action committee dedicated to electing pro-immigration lawmakers - unveiled the 2011 inductees into the Immigration Hall of Shame. In the Hall of Shame are California's own, Reps. Ed Royce (#3) and Brian Bilbray (#6), who have earned places alongside the likes of Michele Bachmann and Steve King.
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, throughout the course of his political career, Brian Bilbray has received more money from General Atomics than any other single source. The San Diego company offers a wide array of services to the nuclear industry and related arenas, and spends millions each year lobbying to support that business.
So perhaps it was no surprise over the weekend that Brian Bilbray took the Union-Tribune to criticize what he calls "hysteria" over nuclear safety in the wake of the terrible events in Japan. He compares it to reaction in 1979 to the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island -- Bilbray calls it an "incident" -- and declares those who want to revisit nuclear safety standards to be "fear mongers."
As proof, he offers that the seawall protecting San Onofre is 50% higher than that at Japan's Daiichi plant. That's true. San Onofre's wall is either 25 feet or 30 feet depending on the report which means that the 8-meter wall of water that swamped the Japanese nuclear reactor would overcome or at least threaten that wall. And studies in the immediate aftermath have put the peak height of the tsunami wave in Japan at 76 feet, with a wave of more than 32 feet hitting Sendai.
And the Japanese standard that guided the building of that wall was established based on historical precedent. While a difference of a foot or two may not produce nearly so dramatic a result, mocking the idea of reconsidering our standards is reckless and insulting. Plus, as recent reporting has pointed out, preparing for the previous disaster isn't very effective:
The [Japanese] Trade Ministry dismissed evidence two years ago from geologists that the power station's stretch of coast was overdue for a giant wave, minutes from a government committee show. Tokyo Electric Power Co. engineers also didn't heed lessons from the 2004 tsunami off Indonesia that swamped a reactor 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away in India, even as they advised the nuclear industry on coping with the dangers.
In just over a year, three corners of the Pacific Rim of Fire -- Chile, New Zealand, and Japan -- have been struck my major, deadly earthquakes. The North American Pacific coast is the last corner remaining. The notion from Bilbray that it is hysterical fear-mongering to re-examine these standards and ensure that we're as protected as possible from preventable calamity is simply stunning.
The rest of Bilbray's piece reads like it was written by the lobbyists at General Atomics, so there's no need to go into it deeply. But as most of us watch day in, day out what can actually go wrong as it happens in Japan, it's interesting that Bilbray opts to recite the pamphlet about how nuclear energy is our friend.
The related irony of all this is that Bilbray says right in the title that "science, not fear, should drive America's energy policies." It's a noble sentiment, and one that I certainly support. It's odd coming from Bilbray however, since less than two weeks ago he voted three straight times against acknowledging that climate change is real. A week before that, he voted to block the EPA from regulating industry greenhouse gas emissions, when Bilbray went so far as to accuse Democrats of trying to "hijack the Clean Air Act."
There's no doubt that we all share with Rep. Bilbray the goal of protecting American lives and American quality of life. Coming so transparently to the defense of his largest political benefactor to criticize, name-call and insult those who fear for their personal safety during ongoing, unspeakable tragedy is much less than we deserve from Brian Bilbray.
Tracy Emblem is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District in tomorrow's, June 8th Democratic Primary race against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee, to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray.
The California Progressive Alliance is a multi-racial, multi-issue "rainbow coalition" dedicated to the struggle for social justice and peace. Their key priorities include economic justice for working families; equal rights for all of God's children regardless of race, gender, or sexual orientation; international peace and solidarity; humanitarian service; eradicating poverty at home and abroad; environmental protection and sustainable development; and electing progressives to public office and then holding them accountable. Founded in 2005, they have rapidly grown to more than 5,000 members and have emerged as one of the largest and most active grassroots coalitions on the West Coast. They serve as a chapter of the Progressive Democrats of America (PDA) and as an an affiliate of United for Peace & Justice (UFPJ), the largest peace and justice coalition in the United States with over 1,400 member groups across the nation.
Children's Hope is a humanitarian organization that serves Haiti's neediest children. They've been bringing supplies to schools and free clinics in Haiti's most desperate slums since 2004. Their volunteers were on the ground in Port au Prince just a few days after the devastating earthquake of January 12 and are currently organizing their third Earthquake Relief trip.
As one of California’s largest Political Action Committees, ECCOPAC is on the front lines of the political battlefield. Based out of Orange County, they monitor all legislative issues that may have a direct or indirect impact on communities in California. Through their efforts and affiliations, ECCOPAC is a potent political voice for hundreds of thousands of individuals throughout the country — particularly in Southern California.
IBEW Local 465 strives for dignity in the workplace for all of our members by collectively bargaining for better wages, benefits, and working conditions. We also endeavor to organize non-union employees so that they may enjoy the benefits of bargaining collectively. Some of the classifications we represent include: electricians, linemen, mechanics, train operators, office clericals, meter readers, gas operators, maintenance personnel, court supervisors, technicians, tree trimmers, laboratory personnel, and more.
The IAM's 730,000 active and retired members can be found in all 50 states in the U.S. and 10 provinces and three territories of Canada. The Western Territory, which includes California, is the most culturally diverse territory in the Machinists Union. Their members include large numbers of Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, Eskimos, Hispanics, Asians, Middle-Easterners, as well as African-American and Caucasian populations.The industries they represent vary from aerospace to automotive repair, city employees to police, fabrication workers and assemblers of semi-trucks to the people that haul them and the food production workers that help sustain us all.
LIUNA is the most progressive, aggressive and fastest-growing union of construction workers, and one of the most diverse and effective unions representing public service employees. LIUNA members are on the forefront of the construction industry – a sector that is a powerhouse of 12 million workers producing 5 percent of our countries’ economic output. A half-million strong, LIUNA members are united through collective bargaining agreements which help them earn family-supporting pay, good benefits and the opportunity for advancement and better lives.
UWUA is one of the most successful and progressive unions in all of the labor movement. They have over 50,000 members working in the electric, gas, water, and nuclear industries across the United States. UWUA is both innovative and relentless in their interest in and ability to protect utility jobs, and the wages, benefits and working conditions that their members enjoy in their jobs.
IUOE is a progressive, diversified trade union that primarily represents operating engineers, who work as heavy equipment operators, mechanics, and surveyors in the construction industry, and stationary engineers, who work in operations and maintenance in building and industrial complexes, and in the service industries. IUOE also represents nurses and other health industry workers, a significant number of public employees engaged in a wide variety of occupations, as well as a number of job classifications in the petrochemical industry. Founded in 1896, IUOE today has over 400,000 members in 138 local unions throughout the United States and Canada and is the 12th largest union in the AFL-CIO.
ESCONDIDO, May 20, 2010 - The International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America (UAW) Region 5 has endorsed Tracy Emblem for U.S. Congress in California's 50th as the Democratic Candidate to vote for in the June 8th primary.
UAW Region Five consists of active and retired members in 17 states in the Western and Southwestern United States and represents individuals such as manufacturing and aerospace employees, agricultural implement workers and academic student employees, readers and tutors at the nine teaching campuses in California.
"Putting Americans back to work should be the number one priority right now in Congress. If America is to have a future, now is the time to revitalize our manufacturing base with high tech green manufacturing jobs that benefit Americans. It starts immediately with policies that return our jobs to America and by retooling for a new economy together with a multi-industry strategy approach through partnership with private, public and labor segments."
The UAW is one of the largest and most diverse unions in North America, with members in virtually every sector of the economy. UAW-represented workplaces range from multinational corporations, small manufacturers and state and local governments to colleges and universities, hospitals and private non-profit organizations. The UAW has more than 390,000 active members and more than 600,000 retired members in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.
It has been actively involved in every civil rights legislative battle since the 1950s, including the campaigns to pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Fair Housing Act, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1988 and legislation to prohibit discrimination against women, the elderly and people with disabilities.
The UAW also has played a vital role in passing such landmark legislation as Medicare and Medicaid, the Occupational Safety and Health Act, the Employee Retirement Act and the Family and Medical Leave Act. In Washington and state capitols, the UAW is fighting for better schools for kids, secure health care and pensions for retirees, clean air and water, tougher workplace health and safety standards, stronger worker's compensation and unemployment insurance laws and fairer taxes.
This endorsement brings the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to about 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy Emblem is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
ESCONDIDO, May 12, 2010 - The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) has endorsed Tracy Emblem for U.S. Congress in California's 50th Democratic primary race in North San Diego County.
AFGE represents a diverse workforce of government workers who are the vital threads of the fabric of American life. Government employees inspect the food we eat and the places we work, protect citizens from the illicit flow of drugs, maintain the safety of our nation's borders, care for our nation's veterans and keep the national defense systems prepared for any danger
"With the 50th District geographically between two military bases and San Diego County home to the second largest Veteran population in the nation, I am proud to have the support and endorsement of AFGE whose members work to care for, empower and assist our returning Veterans and protect and keep America strong," said Tracy Emblem on Wednesday.
AFGE is the largest federal employee union representing 600,000 federal and D.C. government workers nationwide and overseas. Workers in virtually all functions of government at every federal agency depend upon AFGE for legal representation, legislative advocacy, technical expertise and informational services.
AFGE believes that all unions should belong to the house of labor and has been nationally affiliated with the The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) since AFGE was founded in 1932. The AFL-CIO is a voluntary federation of 56 national and international labor unions. The AFL-CIO was created in 1955 by the merger of the AFL and the CIO.
This endorsement brings the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to about 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy Emblem is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
Logan Jenkins, a San Diego Union-Tribune columnist based in North San Diego County, covered the tight Democratic Congressional primary in California's 50th District today. He profiled the two Democratic candidates in the race competing for a chance to unseat the Republican incumbent, Brian Bilbray: 1) Francine Busby, "the Harold Stassen of the 50th district, a three-time loser in head-to-head races against Republicans," and 2) Tracy Emblem, the fresh new upstart with extensive blue collar support from about 20 labor unions. He posited that the 50th District might change color from red to blue this year. Read more:
WASHINGTON D.C., May 07, 2010 - National peacekeeping group, Citizens for Global Solutions (CGS) gave progressive democrat, Tracy Emblem the thumbs up in her race for United States Congress in North San Diego County's 50th district with their official endorsement for her candidacy in the June 8th Democratic Primary.
CGS is a membership based 'big idea' group working to promote the International Criminal Court (ICC), reform the United Nations and encourage the United States to adopt a multinational foreign policy, which includes working together with other nations to abolish war, protect our rights and freedoms, and solve the problems facing humanity that no one nation can solve alone.
"I am proud to have the support and endorsement of the Citizens for Global Solutions and to work together to promote the end of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. We all have a responsibility to be part of the solution," said Tracy Emblem upon receiving the news.
CGS remains one of the leading U.S. based organizations focused on the ICC. Through the work of members, they have been able to roll back the anti-ICC policies adopted by Congress and the Bush administration. They are currently meeting with members of the Obama administration to build a truly positive U.S. relationship with the Court.
As a founding member of the Partnership for Effective Peacekeeping, CGS successfully lobbied Congress to appropriate an additional $524 million to help address critical shortfalls to funding U.N. peacekeeping missions. Overall, they were able to help reduce, by more than 20%, U.S. debt to the U.N. They will continue work to bring this to zero and to put blue helmets back onto U.S. troops.
Close to 90% of the 183 candidates endorsed by Global Solutions PAC in the 2008 election cycle won, including 5 new senators and 5 new representatives.
Tracy is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee, to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray.
With the June primaries fast approaching, we have three candidates facing challengers for the party's nominations. As we pursue our goal of a governing progressive majority, you'll be hearing from each of them. Our hope is that you will find an hour or two to help elect true progressive candidates like Tracy Emblem in California's 50th congressional district. -Tim Carpenter
Republican Brian Bilbray has stood as a living roadblock to every meaningful piece of legislation. He voted NO to Regulate Predatory Lending Practices while people are losing their homes due to foreclosure. He voted NO to Health Care Reform, even after his friends in Congress stripped the Public Option back to nothing less than another private insurance bailout. He voted NO to Ending the War and to bring our troops home. In fact, the only consistent YES vote he has cast is to participate in the Obstruction of Progress.
The RNC considers the 50th a vulnerable district. In 2008, President Obama won with over 14,000 votes. The district is 97.8 percent urban and is ready for change and progressive leadership in Congress.
I am running in a contested Democratic Primary against the party "blue dog" candidate who has already run and lost three times. I have the support of California's working families, the California Labor Federation, the California Nurses Association, National Air Traffic Controllers and almost 20 individual unions in the AFL-CIO. Labor supports me because they know it will take a progressive leader to deliver a victory. Your support will help to level the playing field against the party machine.
With only days until the primary, I need your help now more than ever to win this fight. Please volunteer to make calls to help us reach voters in this critical Southern California district. Together, we can work for true progress to make America stronger.
Yours truly,
Tracy Emblem
P.S. Your campaign contribution of $10, $25, $50 or whatever you can afford will help us reach voters in this critical time. Please visit www.TracyEmblemforCongress.com.
P.P.S. Join Tracy this Thursday on the "Inside the Party" call. Register here.
ESCONDIDO, CA April 23, 2010 - The California School Employees Association (CSEA) joins the California Federation of Teachers (CFT), the California Labor Federation (CLF) and nearly twenty diverse labor unions from building trades to health care specialists and service employees in their official endorsement of Tracy Emblem for United States Congress in California's 50th district.
CSEA represents nearly 230,000 classified employees in California public schools and community colleges.
These school support staff, known in California as “classified school employees,” perform a wide range of essential work, including security, food services, office and clerical work, school maintenance and operations, transportation, academic assistance and paraeducator services, library and media assistance, computer services and more.
"I am proud to have the support and endorsement of the working men and women who keep our schools and colleges open and running. California's Classified Employees work hard every day to ensure that our learning environments are safe, clean and ready for our students, young and old. It is essential that we have a quality, skilled workforce which is why I support rights for employees to organize, pool their resources and collectively bargain for benefits. Investing in our local communities will have lasting results for generations to come," said the jubilant Tracy Emblem.
These endorsement's bring the total labor support of Tracy's campaign to almost 20 unions. Tracy is also the candidate endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.
Tracy is running for U.S. Congress in San Diego's 50th District against Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board trustee with only one endorsement by labor (California Teachers Association), to unseat the incumbent Republican Brian Bilbray who has no endorsements by labor.
Vote Now for Tracy Emblem the True Progressive Candidate
We all know in our hearts who the real progressive candidate is -- Tracy Emblem. The other 50th District candidate has lost the general election three times, and is now attempting to gain the DFA endorsement as a "progressive" candidate. She is not a Progressive Democrat who DFA should endorse. In fact, the DFA does not want Blue Dog or Corporate candidates to represent the party as stated in a recent email from DFA.
To our fellow democrats who are Busby supporters we say that your friendship and loyalty to her is admirable, but we all know friends don't win elections. It is the best qualified candidate who should move on to defeat Brian Bilbray. Let's all make it happen, and as our opponet says - "Let's rally the troops."
Why support Tracy Emblem as the Progressive Candidate? Progressive Democrats of America and Progressive Push - both national progressive organizations have endorsed Tracy.
Tracy has the support/endorsements of 16 labor unions who represent hundreds of working families in the 50th District.
This district can only be won by a strong opponent -- Tracy has been a civil rights attorney protecting and fighting for people's constitutional rights!
Please Click on the Link Below & Vote for Tracy Emblem
Lately, interviews concerning healthcare reform have been plastering the news with droning answers that seem to always slip into over-complicated political jargon. In an interview on Fox 5 San Diego, Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray weighed in on the effect of healthcare reform. The two candidates running for the seat in California's 50th district have competing views of what needs to be done to pass healthcare reform. Francine Busby, addressed the problem head on, and put forth a solution with a fresh display of knowhow and vision. Busby focused on what needs to be done to make healthcare reform relevant to families around the dining room table here in San Diego, rather than the compromising table in Washington. Busby is in support of passing this healthcare reform bill to help the 108,000 uninsured people in her district obtain health insurance. She is willing to do what it takes to make sure the issues relate to the American people and not the American bureaucracy.
Brian Bilbray's comments were all about POLITICS. When asked about the votes needed to pass the bill, Bilbray pinned the blame on the Democrats, their 40-vote majority and lack of bipartisan cooperation, but the moderator did not let him get very far. He claimed that the Democrats are not including the Republicans enough on negotiations, and are strictly going after their own votes. But in reality, when was the last time a President has put together a healthcare summit with both parties present for discussion? Never. President Obama's actions have exceeded any prior attempt at a bipartisan agreement on a bill. Then I still ask myself, why has there been no compromise? The answer that Bilbray poses is: politics.
The moderator further expressed her disgust with the Republican's political games when she said, "You guys are going to lose those votes anyways. You are going to lose at the polls, because people are sick of it Congressman. People are really fed up and tired of all the politics." This Fox Network moderator conveyed the distrust and disgust that the people of America truly have for this broken system of governance. The American people want healthcare reform. They want cheaper insurance premiums. They want a choice! Republicans are playing election games instead of doing their job, which the American people have to remind them of. Stop the political nonsense and pass a bill that will help Americans.
The Republicans, including Bilbray, are focused on the midterm elections in November rather than what is right for the country. Brian Bilbray simply refused to answer the question about how he was going to help the 46 million uninsured Americans. For Bilbray, denying healthcare reform is a political victory for the GOP. Bilbray tiptoed around the issues and reinforced the fact that Republicans are playing politics and using buzzwords in attempt to win elections. The moderator showed more exasperation with Bilbray by saying, "This is frustrating." Then she promptly ended the interview. I agree with her. The California 50th Congressional District deserves better than a question dodger. They deserve someone who will help healthcare reform pass and help them get what they need. The Republican's "No First," mentality has lasted too long. The only way things will change is if we fill our government with people that are dedicated to making things better for the American people. Francine Busby is one of these people. Please Congressman Bilbray, no more politics in this healthcare bill: just results.
PDA is the second progressive organization to endorse Emblem this week. The Progressive Push PAC endorsed Emblem on Saturday. Luis A. Cuevas, the National Director, stated on Emblem's Facebook page that he was proud to endorse "the real progressive in California's 50th Congressional District race".
When voters cast their ballots for Barack Obama last year, they could have been forgiven for harboring the expectation that they were voting for, among other things, a more humane American immigration policy. On the campaign trail, Obama had made such enlightened statements as: "Ultimately, the danger to the American way of life is not that we will be overrun by those who do not look like us or do not yet speak our language. The danger will come if we fail to recognize the humanity of [immigrants] -- if we withhold from them the opportunities we take for granted, and create a servant class in our midst." For the most disempowered population in the country, as for many others, hope was in the air. For the first time, a person of color (and son of an immigrant) was poised to control America's sprawling immigration enforcement apparatus, and the Democrats riding to Congress on his coattails were bound to loosen the grip that Nativism had held on the Capitol for nearly a decade.
With the news of this week's government-coerced layoffs of a quarter of American Apparel's workforce, those same voters could now be forgiven for looking back on those speeches as so much election season pandering. The Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency's audit of American Apparel - and the layoffs that it has provoked - have put the President one big step closer to the position of Brian Bilbray, Republican Congressman from northern San Diego County and former lobbyist for the anti-immigrant, vigilante-friendly FAIR, who applauded the crackdown on American Apparel and complained to the New York Times of employers that have "become addicted to illegal labor."
That's a question that Brian Bilbray's Democratic challengers should be asking. Congressman Joe Wilson--who, in an erroneous and indecorous fit of pique, screamed "You Lie!" during Obama's joint session of Congress--really likes to spread the cash around under the name of the Carolina Majority PAC--which he controls.
The FEC filings show that Joe Wilson's PAC has an extensive list of beneficiaries, but there's one that stands out: in the 2006 cycle, the Carolina Majority PAC donated a cool $5,000 to the re-election campaign of Brian Bilbray.
Now, I don't know about you, but I think that most people in North San Diego County wouldn't take political money from someone who loves the confederate flag and is a proud member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans. Hell, when George Allen decided he wanted to play that game, he packed up from SoCal and brought his cowboy boots and confederate flag pin to Charlottesville.
So the question for Brian Bilbray is, does he support confederate South Carolina values of Congressman Joe Wilson? If he doesn't, he should repay that $5,000, especially in light of Wilson's outburst at our (coincidentally, I presume?) mixed-race President. If he does, though, he has no business being a Congressman from Southern California.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has released a new poll showing Nick Leibham well-positioned to knock off xenophobe Brian Bilbray in CA-50.
A building Democratic wave is about to hit San Diego beaches. The campaign of former prosecutor Nick Leibham is surging, and Leibham is now in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray, 42 to 44 percent.
Key Findings
Leibham launched an extremely effective and aggressive mail and television advertising blitz against Bilbray that features a four-star general criticizing Bilbray's vote against the G.I. Bill. As a result, Leibham has pulled into a statistical tie with the incumbent (42 to 44 percent) after trailing by 19 points (35 to 54 percent) as recently as August.
Barack Obama is also running strong in California's 50th Congressional District, leading John McCain by double digits (53 to 41 percent). The environment is now ripe for Democratic victories in a district George W. Bush won by 11 points - twice. Concerns about the economy dominate the political landscape, President Bush is more unpopular than ever, and five out of six voters think the country is off on the wrong track.
Leibham's strong position is due to his appeal beyond Democratic base voters. He currently wins four out of five (79 percent) Democrats, while Bilbray wins three out of four (75 percent) of Republicans. The biggest difference, however, is that Leibham holds a 16-point advantage among voters not aligned with either party (48 to 32 percent)
Democrats have been coming close in this seat ever since the Duke-Stir, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, was sent to jail in 2006. Francine Busby lost a special election and then the general election to Bilbray. The third time may be the charm.
You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham's (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.
This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the '06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What's worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can't afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can't afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in '06.
This is particularly acute in CA-50. Leibham beat Bilbray in fundraising in the third quarter, and they are almost even in cash on hand. Which means that, barring a life raft from the national party, Bilbray is largely on his own. And he doesn't have much to run on. Here he is whining about that powerful ad from Leibham supporter Joe Hoar, a retired Marine General, which ripped Bilbray for voting against the new GI Bill:
Bilbray said he was one of the GI Bill's original co-sponsors, but voted against it after congressional Democrats loaded it up with extraneous goodies, including a "massive tax increase" and a foreign aid package for Africa and Mexico.
"That's the kind of cynical tactics we said 'no' to," the Carlsbad Republican said. "We forced it to come back as a clean bill and we were able to pass it and it was signed into law in June."
Actually, it wasn't a clean bill at all, it was folded into an Iraq appropriation. And he objected to it initially because it was funded by a tax on millionaires.
Liebham supporters have put up an attack website called Wrong Way Bilbray highlighting his votes. Now that the campaign has settled into attacking Bilbray on the issues, with the Democratic wind at their backs, they are gaining traction.
And more than CA-50, what we're seeing is an across the board re-evaluation of Republican incumbents, with multiple GOPers in trouble.
Republican campaigns all over are starting to tank as Election Day approaches. California, long considered the land of "safe seats" because of the 2000 redistricting plan that basically secured the status quo for both parties, is no exception. The news is not good for incumbent Republicans.
Things are happening very quickly in the most hotly contested campaigns in California. Here's an update:
• CA-04: Watching himself falling behind in the race to replace John Doolittle, perennial candidate Tom McClintock decided to borrow one of his predeccesor's smear campaigns and release an ad claiming that Charlie Brown dishonored servicemen by appearing at an anti-war rally.
The idea that wearing a camouflage jacket constitutes being "in uniform" is ridiculous, and so is the idea that a retired military officer has no free speech rights. But the idea is to smear Charlie as some kind of radical leftist and anti-military, despite Brown's long record of supporting veterans and McClintock's longer record voting against them.
The ensuing press conference put on by the McClintock campaign was a wild affair.
SACRAMENTO - A press conference on congressional candidate Charlie Brown's actions in 2005 at the home of an anti-war display nearly descended into conflict itself, with disruptions before, during and after the event and a near-appearance by police officers [...]
But before the event even began, a handful of Brown supporters - accompanied by Brown's campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse - were asked to leave so that they wouldn't cause a disruption.
One man loudly protested that as a military veteran and the father of an active-duty U.S. soldier, he felt he could stay. "This is not Russia," he said.
McClintock campaign consultant John Feliz and Stenhouse eventually got the man to agree to leave, but not before security at the Hyatt hotel where the press conference took place made calls to Sacramento police to remove the man [...]
But a third man who was with the veterans pointed out that Brown was within his First Amendment right to do so, prompting Feliz to ask him to leave as well, while also saying Brown should re-enlist and face a court martial for his actions.
The man, who gave his name as Bret Sherlock, said afterward that he attended because he was tired of non-veterans like McClintock smearing veterans like Brown.
"Did he do anything illegal?" Sherlock said of Brown, adding that if anyone should be able to protest the war, it should be Brown, as both a veteran and a father of a soldier who has served four tours of duty in Iraq.
McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said the video came from a "concerned citizen." Neither McClintock nor Brown appeared at the press conference.
After the press conference concluded, Stenhouse tried to give McClintock's campaign a pledge to join a Brown program that donates 5 percent of Brown's campaign contributions to nonprofit community groups that work with charities.
Feliz angrily took it and threw it down without looking at it.
They don't want to talk about issues. So McClintock tries to smear a decorated veteran to win an election. Typical.
