Last night at the Republican National Convention, John McCain used the word "fight" more than 40 times in his speech. In the 16 years that we have served together in the Senate, I have seen John McCain fight.
I have seen him fight against raising the federal minimum wage 14 times. ... [Litany of crazy right-wing McCain agenda items here] ... And I saw him fight against the new GI Bill of Rights until it became politically untenable for him to do so.
John McCain voted with President Bush 95 percent of the time in 2007 and 100 percent of the time in 2008 -- that's no maverick. We do have two real fighters for change in this election -- their names are Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
• The water situation could begin getting very ugly very fast. After two of the driest winters on record, our reservoirs are dangerously low. The state is now reviving a Water Bank to facilitate the buying and selling of water from across the water-rich North to the bone dry South.
So people, can I just say one thing? If I see people hosing down driveways, and well, having a lawn in the middle of the desert, make sure you want that more than you want, say, to drink a nice glass of water tonight. Priorities, people.
Also, I guess the movement to restore Hetch Hetchy won't be heating any time soon. It stinks that we have to use our precious natural resources this way. The water from Hetch Hetchy is replaceable, but convincing people of that seems really tough right about now.
• In Orange County or thereabouts? Want to make sure Democrats take the White House? Well, how about you hop aboard the CA4Obama bus to Nevada tomorrow morning. It's leaving from Fountain Valley tomorrow bright and early (6:30am). Interested in joining them? Email ca4obama AT gmail dot com
UPDATE by Dave: A couple more:
• It's a little-known side effect of the budget crisis, but funding for arts education, which is crucial to child development, is going down the toilet. It's fine to raise and educate a bunch of test-taking drones, but it doesn't make this a well-rounded state. No wonder so few of our schools fail to meet federal standards - they are not put in the position to do so.
• Meg Whitman for governor. Yeah, that's the big buzz out of St. Paul. Bwahahahaha. Interesting that the post says the Republicans expect her to face Jerry Brown.
• Another bill being sent to the governor's desk is SB37, the national popular vote bill. And today, DFA sent their California list an email urging the Governor to support it.
California is the largest state in the union, but when it comes to electing the president it can feel like the smallest.
California is ignored by presidential candidates because they believe the electoral vote is already locked up. And, with the Electoral College the way it is, they might even be right. But, if America chooses our president by the national popular vote, then suddenly California would rise to the top of every candidate's priorities. The more Californians who vote for a candidate, the more that increases the popular count and the greater say you have in choosing a leader for the entire country. Since one out of every ten Americans live here, doesn't that make sense?
The California Legislature has approved legislation that would award California's electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The bill now goes to Governor Schwarzenegger and he will make his decision any time. You must act today to let him know how you feel.
Contact Governor Schwarzenegger now and urge him to sign the National Popular Vote bill.
Fiona Ma is doing a "Citizen Co-sponsor" thing for AB 1778, a bill that would require people selling over 2,000 cans ($100) to provide their name. It's an interesting idea aimed at stopping people from rummaging through garbage cans in the middle of the night. However, there's some risk to homeless and low-income folks in this as well. Many of them will sort public trash cans looking for recyclables, and that's tough work.
In today's Sacramento Bee newspaper Dr. Bill Durston finally got some press coverage about his race against one of the most well-known California Republicans, Dan Lungren. You can decide whether it was a positive article or not, but one thing is for sure: Bill Durston is putting up a fight for this seat.
Part of Durston's fight to "take back our government from the special interests that control it, and to restore government of, by, and for the people" is online. He has recently created a video that pieces together clips from a debate he had with Lungren in 2006 about corruption and a more recent ABC News segment in which Lungren is found to be taking luxury vacations paid for by special interests, despite House ethics laws which prohibit such trips. If that video gets you riled up about Lungren, please consider sending Durston some love on his ActBlue page.
Speaking of ethics issues and abuse of power, one of the reasons Durston is having to fight such an uphill battle against Lungren, who refuses to debate him this year, is the fact that Lungren is paying for much of his campaigning with taxpayer money. Lungren has three "town hall meetings" coming up in the district next week and he is promoting them with color advertisements in the Sacramento Bee (a quarter-page full-color ad appeared Aug. 4), automated mass phone calls, and a fancy color mailer touting his "energy plan" that went out to residents of the 3rd congressional district. In tiny text on the mailer is: "This mailing was prepared, published and mailed at taxpayer expense." These town hall meetings are nothing more than campaign stops. It's outrageous that Lungren's campaign for re-election is being funded by taxpayers like you, me, and Bill Durston himself.
Greetings and welcome to the latest installment of the California House races roundup. We're just around 100 days to go until the election, and things are starting to take focus. There are about a half-dozen seats where Democratic challengers have an outside shot at dumping the incumbent, and another six on the watch list in case something spectacular occurs. One thing to note is that the Cook numbers are tied to the 2004 election, and given the demographic changes and cratering of the Republican brand I think they mean significantly less now - it'll be interesting to see how all these districts change in November.
We have plenty of new information to judge these races, including 2nd quarter fundraising reports, national ratings from Charlie Cook and Swing State Project, additional DCCC targets, and the appearance of many challengers at Netroots Nation. So this list is really about who I think has the best chance to retain or take over a seat, not necessarily who should (though that may come through in the writing). Here are some helpful bits of information that I used to help judge.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I've tried to corral all their statements into my diary on Daily Kos, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Below the fold, I've modified the original diary to list just the California Democratic challengers running who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
• I thought I'd have time to put together a monthly roundup for May, but it never came together, and the primary is going to change those analyses a bit, so I'll put something out after the primaries.
• I have to correct an error. On Saturday I wrote that Marta Jorgensen had dropped out of the race in CA-24. She had, but she recently got back into the race and is focusing on turning out new voters in Northern Santa Barbara County around Lompoc. This is a crucial effort to activate Hispanic voters who traditionally have not turned out, and I both salute Ms. Jorgensen for her efforts and apologize for the error. Hopefully she can visit Calitics and fill us in on that effort up in Lompoc.
• Doug Ose has loaned his campaign another $600,000 in the waning days before the GOP primary against Tom McClintock in CA-04. This primary now exceeds $4 million dollars, and it's hard to spend that much in that district. McClintock pulled out of a debate earlier this week, and there was the Pete Wilson savaging as well. Reading the tea leaves, I don't think Ose would make that extra investment if he wasn't close to nailing this down, but I could be wrong.
"Lungren's behavior is disgusting. He claims to be a leader in ethics reform, then he turns around and subverts House ethics rules. This is just one of many examples of Lungren's hypocrisy [...] The people of the 3rd Congressional District deserve better representation than a career politician like Dan Lungren who sells out to special interests. I've been caring for the people of our district for over 25 years as an emergency physician. I believe we have an emergency in our government. I'm running for Congress to help restore government of, by, and for the people."
I like it. Durston is trying to put up a big number in the June 3 primary, despite running unopposed, to show his strength in this challenge.
• And it's not primary-related, but I think we have the first ever Calitics mention in the LA Times in this story about Laura Richardson. Hey guys, you could have used my name, it's right above the title....
UPDATE (by Brian): I have said before that some of the IEs have really angered me. It seems that at least a couple of these annoying IEs have something in common: EdVoice. Chris Cabaldon's former lobbying organization employer has been quite busy this year. In SD-23, they have the cheezy "Carbon-neutral voting" mailers. In AD-8, EdVoice has gone all in for their former CEO, Cabaldon. Randy Bayne has the story on a negative mailer on Mariko Yamada for supporting vocational education for mentally retarded Californians. Not cool.
But you know where he would go? Hawaii. To an event hosted by the American Association of Airport Executives. Dan Lungren, a longtime hack always looking for his next gig, currently represents the 3rd Congressional District north of Sacramento. Lungren also thinks himself a wily fox who can avoid ethics rules that bar lobbyists from going on vacation-themed junkets. And ABC News caught on to his little scheme (h/t CapNotes). Video here
So, here's how it works. Lungren and his wife fly first class to the beautiful Kona coast of Hawaii. The Congressman gives a half-hour speech at the Hapuna Beach Prince Resort (a lovely resort that has recently been restored after some earthquake damage). He bills his Congressional campaign for the expenses, but, conveniently, then does a fundraiser at the conference. So, it's even better than the old rules! He can get a free trip AND some campaign cash as a party favor! W00t!
Lungren says he would have gone to the conference were it LA, but hesitated when asked if he would have attended the conference if it were in Pittsburgh. Lungren couldn't even ditch the arrogance long enough to defend himself when he said:"Do I look like I go to Pittsburgh in January?"
The worst part of all this? Quite possibly it comes from the video of Dan Lungren parading around in a swimsuit, lathering himself in suntan lotion. For the record, I support proper skincare: Always wear sunscreen when taking bribes contributions in Hawaii. You can throw some love to Bill Durston on the Calitics ActBlue Page.
• CA-03: Bill Durston may be unopposed in the June 3 primary, but he's running very hard and trying to pick up as many decline-to-state voters as possible. He's actually running a GOTV operation. The gambit here is to prove to donors and the political establishment that CA-03 is competitive. I also think it makes sense just as practice for the general and for name recognition.
• CA-04: The Club for Growth, whose record this year in primaries is actually a little mixed, has released an ad attacking Doug Ose in his race against Tom McClintock. There's plenty of outside money on both sides in this one.
• CA-42: Communications Workers of America, Southern California Council has endorsed Ron Shepston. It's somewhat notable considering that Ed Chau got the Cal Labor Fed endorsement.
Anything else you're hearing, please put it in the comments. This is an open-source elections thread.
Getting this one in under the wire. On the last day of April, with just over a month to go until the June primaries, and six months to go until Election Day, there's a lot going on all over the state in the Congressional races. Of the 19 seats in California currently held by Republicans, 17 will be contested in the fall, and some strongly so. And we now have a full 34 Democrats with the election of Jackie Speier early in the month, and only one of them is a serious challenge. We also have the first quarter of 2008 fundraising numbers, which will raise some eyebrows. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A note: I'm mainly getting my numbers on cash-on-hand competitiveness from the Swing State Project. Fundraising information comes from the FEC.
I noticed this before Swing State Project codified it, but there were some stunning numbers in the Q1 Congressional fundraising reports that augur well for Democratic upsets in November.
We know that Charlie Brown is raising tons of money and has close to $600,000 cash on hand, and his challengers are spending all their money in a bruising primary race (Doug Ose has a million dollars in debts on his books). We know that three California challengers raised six figures in the first quarter (Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham) and have been consistently doing so. What's notable is the lack of fundraising prowess among key Republicans.
Dean Andal is supposed to be one of the top GOP challengers in the whole country. Yet he could only manage $90,000 in the first quarter, which considering how much effort the GOP is putting into his race is embarrassing.
More interesting to me are the incumbents. David Dreier raised $136,000, not all that much more than Russ Warner's $110,000. Dan Lungren raised around $100,000, not much more than Bill Durston's $75,000 (very respectable for his grassroots campaign). And then there are two in Orange County that are shocking. Dana Rohrabacher was OUTRAISED by Debbie Cook in CA-46: $47,000 to $39,000. And Cook didn't get a full quarter in because she didn't announce until late January. (On a similar note, Julie Bornstein was able to raise $29,000 in just a few weeks after her announcement). And in CA-42, Gary Miller was outraised by Ed Chau, a carpetbagger from Montebello, and if you add in Ron Shepston's total Miller was significantly outraised by his challengers.
That's quite incredible. Miller and Rohrabacher might be dismissing the effort against them, and they still have plenty of cash on hand. But as a symbol of support in the district, clearly Democrats have the momentum all over the state. We're going to be very competitive this cycle, and if one of these districts hits, the cash-poor NRCC and the pathetic fundraising prowess of these Republicans isn't going to save them.
Hey folks, we have the radio show now online: right here. It's streaming live now. We're currently playing an interview with Dr. Bill Durston, CA-03 candidate. We'll follow up with a conversation with Randy Bayne about central valley politics.
UPDATE: (Bob) Calitics podcasts are now also available on iTunes. Also, on last week's Capital Notes podcast with John Myers and Anthony York, Calitics got a shout out for coverage of the CDP Convention.
As far as an overall take on the convention I would pretty much associate myself with Robert's remarks. Ultimately these events are more important for the time-honored political practice of networking, of meeting and gathering impressions on colleagues and candidates for the future, not in a formal speech setting but one-on-one. While these endorsement fights and resolutions and platforms get the attention of the activists and insiders, and as well you can pretty fairly judge the activist/establishment gaps in the party in this fashion (the activists got virtually everything they wanted in this convention, particularly with respect to the platform), ultimately it's about people. And at Calitics we were determined to bring that experience right to you by collecting audio and/or video of some of our most promising Congressional candidates.
First up are Charlie Brown and Russ Warner, but before that I wanted to sketch out some of the other candidates I met over the weekend:
• I truly think that the governor's mansion is Jerry Brown's if he wants it. I always aprreciate a guy who's been marginalized and demonized by the right for so long, and just keeps going, shoving it right back in their faces. Brown's speech at the convention, delivered without a teleprompter, was great for red meat but also reflected an agile mind that has been right about so many issues for so long. I like a guy who takes "Governor Moonbeam" as a compliment. I really think that if he wants to be Governor again the seat is his. Outside of President I don't believe he's ever lost a political race. (Plus I still remember that Joe Trippi ran his campaign against Bill Clinton in 1992.)
• I don't have a connection to the Leno-Migden fight outside of what I read on Calitics and what I hear from my friends on the site. But I have to say that, looking at it from the outside, this is the biggest waste of resources I've ever seen in my life. What would happen if these hundreds of volunteers walked precincts in the district, instead of providing "visibility" while fighting for an endorsement in a high-information area that won't ultimately matter much? The battle is swamping the entire convention, and it's clearly become a giant pissing contest between the Assembly and the Senate, with each side taking up for their colleague. As you've read here, Migden is nuts, and I have pretty strong opinions about who should serve, and in particular the principle of the unbalanced endorsement process, where an incumbent needs a lower threshold to get the party endorsement than a challenger. That's ridiculous, and in fact Joye Swan of the Progressive Caucus is leading an effort for a bylaw change to address just that. But this is a waste.
• Relevant to that, I think Bill Clinton has NO IDEA what he's about to step into on Sunday. The Leno-Migden thing is sucking up most of the oxygen out of this convention. Clinton and San Francisco DA Kamala Harris are speaking for Hillary and Barack Obama tomorrow, but there's going to be less focus on that than he'd expect.
• We are doing several interviews with Congressional and legislative candidates. So far we had a good chat with Bill Durston, a candidate in the rapidly purpling area of CA-03. We have interviews with Charlie Brown (CA-04), Hannah-Beth Jackson (SD-19) and Russ Warner (CA-26) later on. We will be posting the audio as we get it in. We also had a nice chat between bloggers and Mayor Gavin Newsom. His effort to sue for restoration of Medi-Cal reimbursements is a very strong stand. What I didn't get a chance to ask him about is why he's trying to curtail free speech when the Olympic torch relay comes to San Francisco on April 9.
Welcome back to the California House races roundup for March. The races are coming into focus, with new challengers entering the fray before the March 7 deadline, and some actual campaigning between candidates (shocking!). And with the DCCC looking at four races in the state, California will certainly be a battleground in Congress in November.
We also know with a fair degree of certainty that Jackie Speier will be the next Representative in CA-12, after Lawrence Lessig declined to run. The initial primary is April 8 and Speier is heavily favored.
So that leaves just one Democratic seat in any degree of question, and I've decided to expand to write about 13 Republican-held seats that have varying degrees of challenges. Overall, Democrats are running in 18 of the 19 seats currently held by Republicans, and 52 of 53 seats overall. Only Kevin McCarthy in CA-22 (Bakersfield) is uncontested AFAIK. You can track these races yourself with the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.
A couple notes: I've changed the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary statistics to reflect the final numbers from the Secretary of State's office. As you'll see, six of the thirteen Republican-held seats mentioned had majority Democratic turnout. Very encouraging. Also, I've noted where applicable which challengers have endorsed the Responsible Plan to End The War In Iraq. My hope is that eventually every candidate will do so; it will absolutely help them in their campaigns to show some leadership and offer a comprehensive strategy to end the war and change our conversation around national security.
Senator Russ Feingold is once again looking for progressive candidates to select as a "Progressive Patriot." Vote now to place Bill on this list. In 2006, Patriots on this list received hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions. Don't let this slip through our hands.
And one more thing... While you're at it, it's on the same page, could you just...
Republican voter registration in California is on the decline, but nowhere is the effect more pronounced than in the Sacramento region's 3rd Congressional District.
Incumbent Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, now has the slimmest registration edge of any Republican-held congressional district in the state.
According to district registration figures updated before the Feb. 5 primary election by the secretary of state's office, the Republican advantage over Democratic registration has slipped below five percentage points, 41.6 percent to 36.9 percent. Before the 2006 general election, the GOP margin was almost 6.6 points.
This was made pretty clear when the percentage of Democratic turnout in the February 5 primary was 53.1%, also the largest of any Republican-held district in the state. There's something definitely happening in this district, most of which is located in Sacramento County. The demographics are shifting and Democrats have been very aggressive in registering new voters. Debra Bowen's focus on increasing registration led to thousands of new voters placed onto the rolls before the primary, and the residual effect of that is more Democrats. They of course need to be turned out. But it's clear that Lungren is paying attention to this development. After Bill Durston launched an effort to highlight Lungren's terrible environmental record (he has a 5% rating from the League of Conservation Voters), Lungren took a walk on the most recent environmental vote in the House - a vote to eliminate subsidies for oil companies and re-route those tax breaks to renewable energy companies. He was the ONLY California Republican in Congress to miss the vote; everyone else voted against it. Lungren obviously feels some vulnerabilities on this, and he need look no further than at Richard Pombo. The LCV listed him as one of their "Dirty Dozen" in 2006, and that year, not only did Pombo end up losing, but 9 of the 13 "Dirty Dozen" (I guess it was a baker's dozen) lost as well.
If Bill Durston could secure some outside resources like that, this could be the sleeper Congressional race of 2008 in California. Keep an eye on this one.
(I love it. With the Presidential primary out of the way, these House races are the highest-profile races we can impact. I'll have a lot more this week, I promise to do a roundup! - promoted by David Dayen)
For those that live in the boundaries of District 3, which contains parts of Sacramento County, Calaveras County, and Alpine Country, you have a chance to elect a real Progressive.
Bill Durston is taking his second run to unseat Dan Lungren, a seven-term member of Congress, and staunch defender of Bush, and his lawless administration. Lungren has been in Congress since 1979, which was in the last century, and yes California, it's time for a change.
In a rare moment of unusual candor, a wanton display of unrestrained recklessness, an attempt to wag his "strong-on-Terra" manhood (or a combination of some or all of the foregoing), the absentee chickenhawk congressman of the 3rd congressional district of California reached into the darkest crevices of his soulless being and bravely declared as follows:
I cannot say, per se, that waterboarding is torture.
There's some real data in the form of third-quarter fundraising numbers to pore over, and events in Washington and at home have served to focus on some of our Congressional candidates here in California. Plus, believe it or not, we're only about a year out from Election Day. Let's take a look at the top ten races.
As usual, I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good. (over)
With liberty and justice for all presumably echoing somewhere in the background yesterday, Rep. Dan Lungren yesterday cut to the real concern in the Jena 6 case:
"Whether or not attempted murder is appropriate under that jurisdiction, I don't know. I've never prosecuted under that jurisdiction," says Dan Lungren (R-Calif.). "We need to talk about justice being done [to] all of the victims."
Now, I would quibble a bit with Politico adding the "to" because that changes quite a bit the inflection of the statement. Justice to and justice for would carry pretty different connotations. Given that "justice" has only been applied to some of the people involved, Lungren's attempt to paint over the racial issues involved in prosecution is an insulting and willful ignorance of the forces at play outside of the direct incidents involved. In fact, it seems that Rep. Lungren would rather try focusing on broken families and delinquency than actually acknowledging racism. Over we go.
