With a conventional wisdom that would make David Broder blush, the New York Times issued a dire warning to Democrats yesterday: 2010 will be a bad year, no incumbent in Congress will be safe, and expect to spend much of the time playing defense. Here in California, progressives should not let such talk intimidate them, and focus on playing offense. No matter how angry voters are at Democrats and Congress, they hate the Republicans even more. California has eight red congressional districts that Obama carried in 2008 (with demographics in their favor), so there's no reason not to have credible challengers everywhere. I met recently with such a candidate - Beth Krom from Orange County's 48th District.
We've got another one here folks in Orange County. Last Friday Orange County had a huge event, it was the Democratic Party of Orange County's Annual Truman Awards Dinner and our Keynote Speaker was Nancy Pelosi. It got our local Republicans in a bit of a tif and a lot of Teabaggers showed up to protest her presence.
We expected protesters, I even wrote about their plans at Daily Kos, but we weren't expecting this...
The Stand up America PAC is going after Wilson, in addition to other Republican lightning rod Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), Jean Schmidt (Ohio), John Campbell (Calif.) and Minority Whip Eric Cantor.
I think the Crazy Five has a better ring to it. And it's not shocking to find John Campbell on this list. He's my representative and sure, I'm used to the crazy here in Orange County but not only is his time up, but we have an amazing candidate to run against him.
A slight pause in your all-budget all the time Calitics. User mbayrob posted this in the open thread, but IMHO, it is worthy of its own thread. So, here it is, John Campbell hemming and hawing when asked about the "birther" claims that Barack Obama wasn't really born in the United States. This is despite the fact that Obama has released his birth certificate which has been duly certified by the State of Hawaii.
Yet Rep. John Campbell is once again using these weasel words to give foundation to, as Chris Matthews called them, the crazies in the Republican Party. You might notice that Campbell was not co-sponsoring such a bill when the president at issue was George W Bush, but alas, we need certainty! Like, um, a birth certificate showing that he was born in Hawaii.
Meanwhile, Irvine Mayor Beth Krom, a Democrat, is running for the 48th Congressional District in 2010.
So the first quarter of fundraising for the 2010 cycle ended, and this week the reports were filed. Swing State Project has a good roundup. Here's what I found interesting:
• In CA-48, Beth Krom had an unusually strong quarter, considering she entered the race in the middle of it. She raised $63,000 for the quarter, actually beating the incumbent, John Campbell, who raised $55,000. Now, in 2008 candidates like Nick Leibham and Debbie Cook beat their incumbent counterparts in fundraising repeatedly, but had major disadvantages in cash on hand because the incumbents had assembled war chests from prior fundraising. And that's the case here too - Campbell has $300,000 CoH, while Krom has $61,000, a 5-to-1 advantage. But to beat Campbell so early in the cycle shows a lot of potential.
• Debbie Cook, Charlie Brown and Bill Durston basically raised no money in the quarter, dampening any expectation that they will run again in their respective districts. Durston raised $9,000, but that was probably all before he hinted at dropping out due to medical troubles.
• In CA-44, Bill Hedrick may be getting national attention, but he's not raising national numbers, and if he continues to put up $14,000 for a quarter, the D-Trip will either walk away or look for another challenger. I respect the hell out of Hedrick but he's got to do better than that.
• CA-37 is absolutely ripe for a primary challenge. Noted deadbeat Laura Richardson raised a paltry $28,500, as an incumbent, and her $39,000 cash on hand is dwarfed by $363,000 in debt. We deserve better than Laura Richardson in that very blue district.
• Jerry McNerney put up a $275,000 quarter in CA-11.
• His numbers weren't spectacular, but Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet is drawing some attention for his challenge to Mary Bono Mack in CA-45. This is another "Obama Republican" district, and Pougnet, a gay father of two, has an interesting profile for the district and a proven record in the community. This one bears watching.
Through a series of vacancies and some early action, California has suddenly become ground zero for Congressional elections. Here's the latest news on some of the races.
• CA-32: The special election for Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis' seat will coincide with the statewide special election on May 19th. The major candidates, Board of Equalization member Judy Chu, State Sen. Gil Cedillo and Obama transition official Emanuel Pleitez, actually met in a forum last week sponsored by the Southwest Voter Registration Project, and the Latino Professional Network. I didn't learn about it until a press release popped up in my inbox from Cedillo's press flack touting "Cedillo is Victorious in First Debate". Seeking a somewhat less biased opinion, I struggled to find a news report until coming across this in the Whittier Daily News.
Immigration issues dominated the agenda when three of the leading Democratic candidates to replace new Labor Secretary Hilda Solis met face to face for the first time at a forum Thursday night.
"Today I met with the president ... I could have said anything ... what I said was, 'Mr. President, please stop the raids. Please stop the raids now,' " Cedillo said of a meeting with Barack Obama during the president's town hall meeting in Los Angeles on Thursday.
Cedillo is known for repeatedly introducing legislation to allow undocumented immigrants to obtain drivers licenses, but he said that his legacy goes far beyond: "In 11 years of the legislature ... I have written 80 bills signed by three governors. I have fought to defend immigrants, because I believe it is the right thing to do."
Chu discussed being raised by an immigrant mother in South Central Los Angeles, fighting against an English- only movement in Monterey Park, and pushing legislation in Sacramento to protect outdoor migrant workers and require contracts negotiated in a certain language to be printed in that language.
"I support bills that will bring justice to immigrants. Many times immigrants do not have a voice in the political system, and it is up to us, who are in elected positions, to be able to speak up for them," she said.
Pleitez, too, was born to an immigrant mother, who crossed the border from Mexico while pregnant with him. He said his childhood growing up at the "mercy of the generosity of the people of my community" in back rooms and back garages of neighbors created a debt that he owes to the district.
"I was able to move on to Stanford University, Goldman Sachs ... but I will never forget ... this debt that I have," he said.
"I will leverage my youth to organize around the country ... to really pass immigration reform."
This was the last scheduled debate where every major candidate has committed to attend, and judging from the article, observers found little differentiation between the candidates on the issues. Cedillo vowed not to vote for any health care system that didn't include immigrants "regardless of immigration status," but given the audience I would expect that kind of rigidity. I hope there will be a wider range of issues discussed in a public way, and as I have in the past I invite all the candidates to share their views here on Calitics. We should have at least one response in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, PowerPAC, a new group targeted at youth of color which aided President Obama in California and across the nation last year, endorsed Gil Cedillo. He also received the endorsement today of former Assemblyman Ed Chavez.
• CA-10: The field is still assembling after last week's announcement that Ellen Tauscher will leave Congress to work on arms control policy in the State Department. While Sen. Mark DeSaulnier has not formally announced, such an announcement is expected. In the meantime, Adriel Hampton, a municipal investigator for the San Francisco City Attorney's office, is among the first to formally announce. Hampton clearly seeks to leverage social media and Web 2.0 (he has a Ning site, in addition to Facebook and Twitter) to create buzz for his outside-the-establishment campaign. Hopefully he'll pop up around here as well. I'm not seeing a lot of substance behind the "hey kids, let's put on a Government 2.0 show" announcement, but I'm sure that will come. Perhaps others can fill in the missing pieces here. (Actually, Robert did, below.
Meanwhile, the Yacht Party still must believe that this seat holds the same demographics as it did when it was represented by a Republican in 1996, because they continue to trot out names to contest the seat. Melanie Morgan is touting someone. Yes, Spocko's Melanie Morgan.
Conservative activist, author and former radio talk show host Melanie Morgan sent an e-mail yesterday saying she's "squealing like a schoolgirl" to announce that Catherine Moy - executive director of the Move America Forward group of which Morgan is chairwoman; co-author with Morgan of "American Mourning;" and a Fairfield City Council member - will run in the special election to succeed Rep. Ellen Tauscher, assuming Tauscher is confirmed to a high-ranking State Department post.
"The conservative counter-insurgency has begun, and I'm going to do everything in my power to get Cat elected," Morgan wrote. "Cat has terrific name recognition in the area, a devoted following and she is entirely capable of running this race and winning it - as a rock-solid conservative who has never voted to raise a single tax, and has a solid record on national defense working relentlessly with the largest pro-troops grassroots organization in the country."
I don't think Morgan knows what the word "counter-insurgency" means. Will she be seeking out groups inside the district to reconcile differences and win hearts and minds with a movement of primary resistance?
Other Republican names are floating out there, but the one that brings a smile to my face is tom Del Beccaro, Vice Chairman of the Yacht Party and recent founder of a PAC dedicated to stopping the Fairness Doctrine, which has already been stopped by a full vote in the US Senate.
• CA-48: It takes two years to run for Congress at the least, if not multiple cycles. So I appreciate Irvine City Councilwoman Beth Krom's kickoff in CA-48 to unseat John Campbell, bringing 300 people to Shady Canyon for the affair. Both Steve Young (the most recent candidate in the district) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez enthusiastically endorsed Krom's candidacy, so expect the field to clear. It's quixotic, but we need more windmill-tilters taking back red districts.
Beth Krom goes up with her interim website and invites folks to her first fund-raiser on March 22nd.
The current Congressman, has been a national laughingstock for his comments about Atlas Shrugged finally coming true, but Beth Krom's opening email also includes one amazing fact about John Campbell.
In four years as Mayor, I was never once contacted by Congressman Campbell to express interest in, or offer assistance on our community priorities. He never attended a single city event, nor did he ever contact me to commend the city on any of our achievements. If the largest city in the 48th District is not being served, what hope is there for the other cities in the district?
What can you say about the arrogance of a Congressman who never once shows up or talks to the Mayor of the largest city in the district? At least Rohrabacher occasionally shows up at stuff to rant about immigrants and deny the science of climate change.
Last week, OC Progressive (which has really attracted a good group of writers and provided a vital progressive voice in Orange County) revealed that Beth Krom, an Irvine City Councilwoman, is considering a run against Rep. John Campbell. In a subsequent post, Joe Shaw explained why Krom would make a worthy challenger.
She can win elections.
Beth Krom has won five campaigns, In 2006, she garnered 60% of the vote in her re-election as Mayor and in 2008, won her current City Council seat with 8000 votes more than the next candidate.
She gets things done.
We need elected officials who have experience getting things done for their constituents. Beth Krom is a strong advocate for environmental stewardship. Her vote was instrumental in cleaning up the water along the Orange County coast: she was the first "inland" representative to advocate for full secondary treatment of the effluent the OC Sanitation District pumped out into the ocean and was the "swing vote" in getting the board to fund implementation.
She's a visionary.
Beth Krom understands that Orange County needs leadership that will advance innovative, integrated transit solutions, sustainable development practices and green technology and jobs initiatives.
She can work across party lines.
Beth Krom has the respect of so many people throughout Orange County because she works with people, regardless of political affiliation, to get things done.
Irvine is one of America's best run cities.
What other Orange County elected, at the local, state or federal level, can lay claim to the legacy of forward-thinking leadership that Beth Krom has provided in the City of Irvine? "Safest City in America" four years straight; a balanced budget and more than tripling city reserves during her term as Mayor, and advancing a project of regional importance - the Orange County Great Park.
I'm a little gun-shy to out and out predict victory in these California Congressional races. We are know that they are tough slogs, and were disappointed by the performance of many promising candidates last cycle. Nonetheless, we cannot leave these red areas behind, and there's no question that the threat of candidates like Bill Durston and Debbie Cook forced the national GOP to spend money where they didn't want to spend it, leading to other losses around the country. Everything is connected, and thus solid candidates should continue to be recruited everywhere.
What's more, President Obama actually beat John McCain in CA-48, despite the district's Republican tilt. And, far from distinguishing himself, Campbell has most recently looked to Ayn Rand novels for inspiration in setting public policy:
Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.), who gives his departing interns copies of Ayn Rand's novel "Atlas Shrugged," told me today that the response to President Obama's economic policies reminded him of what happened in the 51-year-old novel.
"People are starting to feel like we're living through the scenario that happened in 'Atlas Shrugged,'" said Campbell. "The achievers, the people who create all the things that benefit rest of us, are going on strike. I'm seeing, at a small level, a kind of protest from the people who create jobs, the people who create wealth, who are pulling back from their ambitions because they see how they'll be punished for them."
It would be a terrible thing if the titans of industry that have burned through trillions of dollars in American wealth were to pull back and not be so ambitious, wouldn't it? And it's certainly a rational reaction, to forcibly crumble what's left of the American economy due to an increase of 4 cents in the top marginal tax rates. Even more certainly, there's no question that it would turn out just like the fictional novel - that every high-earner would leave their job and nobody would pick up the slack. Conservatives are nothing if not selfless. And daring, rational men who live by their minds.
This guy is obviously a buffoon, but we know that is sadly not enough in these districts. And repeat candidates, who have built up their name ID and volunteer base, always have a better shot. If I were to forecast the early prospects for a flipped seat in California right now, I would go:
CA-44: Bill Hedrick is already announced as a candidate, and he lost by just 2.6% to Ken Calvert last time.
CA-03: The trendlines in the district are favorable, but it's unclear if Bill Durston will make a third try.
And then, pretty much, nothing, until there's clarity about who's running. Charlie Brown writing an op-ed in the Auburn Journal trashing Tom McClintock suggests he might try again in CA-04, but I'm not sure. Given the current state of affairs, I'd say CA-48 isn't looking too badly, though it's early.
Former Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook stopped bad developments in parks and beaches, and led the efforts to clean up the water off Orange County's coast. In the meantime, she became a national leader on energy issues.
Costa Mesa City Councilwoman Katrina Foley has led the fight to improve her city's quality of life, fought for better parks and increased opportunities for her city's youth as others on the Costa Mesa City Council were more concerned with ugly immigrant bashing.
Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom helped to create Orange County's visionary Great Park, and her leadership has made Irvine a model of sustainable planning, green building and environmental stewardship.
You can meet them this Saturday, Feb. 28 as they join the Orange County League of Conservation Voters for a roundtable discussion on building a green political farm team for Orange County.
Environmental Roundtable
"2010 Goal: Progressive Change in Orange County"
Saturday, February 28, 2009
9:30 am to 12:30 pm
Santiago Creek Wildlife and Watershed Center
600 E. Memory Lane, Santa Ana
To RSVP contact Robin Everett at robin_e1@hotmail.com or call 949-338-5356
