Former Lt. Gov. makes suspicious loans to his Congressional campaign
by Brian Leubitz
You would assume that Abel Maldonado would have preferred to be lapping up the nothingness that Gavin Newsom is currently enjoying. But that LG race didn't turn out like he would have liked, so he's off to a different campaign, the new 24th Congressional.
One of several Republicans hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Lois Capps, D-Santa Barbara, Maldonado has dropped big money into his campaign, retrieved it quickly and then dropped it back in again.
The rapid cycling of money, timed to fundraising deadlines, could appear like a way to inflate campaign reports and demonstrate political viability. Or, as Maldonado's campaign consultants say, it could be simple prudence.
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Seemingly mirroring campaign moves seen last year in a Northern San Joaquin Valley congressional race, Maldonado loaned his House campaign $250,000 on June 30. Coming on the last day of the fundraising period, the loan, combined with contributions, enabled Maldonado to show a respectable $531,401 on hand.(SLO Tribune)
Mighty convenient for St. Maldo how awesome it makes you look without well, actually having to raise the money. Meanwhile Capps has almost $900K in the bank to fight what will likely be one of the most competitive races in the nation. But, who knows, maybe our friend Abel will simply talk himself out of a real race.
Capps is a solid member of Congress that knows the district and represents it well. Abel? Well, opportunist is the first word that comes to mind.
Here I will cover the eight constitutional offices, three State Supreme Court justice confirmations, and nine ballot measures. In the second diary, I will cover the U.S. Senate race and the House races, and in the third the state legislature. I will also combine my regular registration updates within the diaries.
Speaking of registration updates, as you will see in the layout of the statewide registration numbers, Democrats are more pumped up here, adding almost half a million voters to their rolls since 2008. The Republicans in comparison added just 13,000 in the same amount of time. So if you are looking for a lethargic Democratic base, look elsewhere because you won't find it here!
Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.
D: Democratic
R: Republican
L: Libertarian
G: Green
AI: American Independent
PF: Peace and Freedom
NP: Nonpartisan
SW: Socialist Workers
Race Ratings Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%
Lean: Margin by 5-10%
Likely: Margin by 10-15%
Strong: Margin by 15-20%
Solid: Margin by more than 20%
Governor: Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) vs. Attorney General Jerry Brown (D), Laura Wells (G), Dale Ogden (L), Chelene Nightingale (AI), Carlos Alvarez (PF), and Lea Sherman (SW-W/I)
Profile: I see no way Whitman can win. Running as an outsider when the current governor, who also ran as an outsider, is leaving office with 20% approval ratings, is a surefire losing strategy. And pissing voters off by running ads nonstop and spending nine-figure sums of money while they're forced to cut back is not going to help at all. Brown is leading by example, running on a shoestring budget and calling for everyone to sacrifice, meaning no sacred cows. Polls may not yet show it, but in my opinion I think Whitman is finished. In fact, I'll be very surprised if she even manages to make it a low-teen loss.
Outlook: Likely to Strong Brown (D pickup)
Lieutenant Governor: Interim Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) vs. S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom (D), Jimi Castillo (G), Pamela Brown (L), Jim King (AI), and C.T. Weber (PF)
Profile: Here we have quasi-incumbent Abel Maldonado, appointed after John Garamendi went to Congress, running to be elected in his own right against Newsom. While Maldonado is moderate for a Republican (though that is not saying much), being closely associated with Arnold is going to be a huge liability, which I do not think he will overcome.
Outlook: Lean Newsom (D pickup)
Attorney General: S.F. DA Kamala Harris (D) vs. L.A. DA Steve Cooley (R), Peter Allen (G), Timothy Hannan (L), Dianne Beall Templin (AI), and Robert J. Evans (PF)
Profile: This is the only statewide race in California I am worried about, and where my theory (that California has just become too Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances) will be put to the test. Cooley is not that bad for a Republican, having had the audacity to stand against popular opinion of issues such as three strikes and Jessica's Law, though he is also against dispensaries for medical marijuana. Harris is a rising star in Democratic circles, and is a more formidable opponent than any of Cooley's challengers in the past. The wild card is the big enchilada of L.A. County, where Harris' name ID is low and she'd need to win by 18-20% to win statewide. I am of course pulling for Harris because I want our bench to stay nice and full for the inevitable retirements of DiFi probably in 2012, Boxer probably in 2016, and for the open governorship in 2014 or 2018; and also because she has courageously stood up to Prop 8, while Cooley pledges to defend it in court.
Outlook: Toss-Up
Secretary of State: SoS Debra Bowen (D) vs. businessman Damon Dunn (R), Ann Menasche (G), Christina Tobin (L), Merton D. Short (AI), and Marylou Cabral (PF)
Profile: Bowen is a lock for reelection.
Outlook: Solid Bowen
Treasurer: Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) vs. State Senator Mimi Walters (R), Kit Crittenden (G), Edward Teyssier (L), Robert Lauten (AI), and Debra Reiger (PF)
Profile: Lockyer is a lock for reelection.
Outlook: Solid Lockyer
Controller: Controller John Chiang (D) vs. State Senator Tony Strickland (R), Ross Frankel (G), Andy Favor (L), Lawrence Beliz (AI), and Karen Martinez (PF)
Profile: A rematch from 2006, only with Democrats more pumped up, Chiang will win by a wider margin this time around.
Outlook: Strong to Solid Chiang
Insurance Commissioner: State Assemblyman Mike Villines (R) vs. State Assemblyman Dave Jones (D), William Balderston (G), Richard Bronstein (L), Clay Pedersen (AI), and Dina Padilla (PF)
Profile: In California, when a non-damaged Democrat is up against a generic Republican, the Democrat wins. Take it to the bank.
Outlook: Likely to Strong Jones (D pickup)
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Retired Superintendent Larry Aceves (NP) vs. State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson (NP)
Profile: Torlakson voted against Race to the Top and believes parents, teachers, students, and communities alike all need to come together to improve our schools, while Aceves believes that the problem with public schools is the teachers and hedge funds and billionaires should have more control over K-12 education. This will be a close one.
Outlook: Toss-Up
State Supreme Court confirmation - Tani Cantil-Sakauye: Voters are being asked whether to confirm Tani Cantil-Sakauye, Arnold's pick to replace Chief Justice Ron George. She is seen as uncontroversial, but likely to share Arnold's views on corporate power.
Outlook: Lean Confirm
State Supreme Court retention - Ming Chin: Chin was in the minority that voted to uphold the state's ban on marriage equality in 2008, and is one of the most right-wing justices on the state Supreme Court. I want to see him go, but it doesn't look likely.
Outlook: Likely Retention
State Supreme Court retention - Carlos Moreno: Moreno was the only justice who courageously voted to overturn Prop 8 at the State Supreme Court last year, and has been a reliable vote for equality and so should be voted to be retained.
Prop. 19 (Marijuana): If passed, this proposition would legalize the possession and growing of marijuana for personal use of adults 21 years and older, and allow state and local governments to regulate and tax related commercial activities. This proposition winning may make Washington reexamine its own policy towards marijuana, since what happens in California often makes it way to the other side of the country. Polls have shown Yes leading by single digits, so I'll call 19 a passing proposition.
My recommendation: YES! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Lean Pass
Prop. 20 (Redistricting Congressional Districts): This proposition would amend the state Constitution be amended to have the Citizens Redistricting Commission (prop 11 from 2008) redistrict for the U.S. House of Representatives seats. This initiative calls for each district being composed of people of the same income level and people with the same work opportunities, which to me feels like a backdoor to the old bygone Jim Crow ways. And passing this prop while giving free passes to Republican-controlled legislatures in Texas and Florida to gerrymander the hell out of those states is likely to put California at a disadvantage when competing for federal dollars. In addition, there is no way this commission can be held accountable.
My recommendation: NO! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Fail
Prop. 21 (Vehicle License Surcharge): Establishes an $18 annual vehicle license surcharge to provide funds for maintaining the state parks and wildlife programs, and grants surcharged vehicles free admission to the state parks. Our cash-starved state parks could use the extra funds. In addition, the governor can't take funds from this coffer when other coffers are low. The tough economy may dampen the chances of this prop passing, though.
My recommendation: YES! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up
Prop. 22 (Local Government Funds): Prohibits the state from taking funds used for local government services. It is well-intentioned but flawed. The cities and counties would get an immediate payment of over $1 billion, forcing further cuts to vital public services.
My recommendation: NO! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail
Prop. 23 (Suspension of AB 32): Backed by Texas oil interests, this prop would suspend AB 32 until unemployment dropped to an unrealistic 5.5% for a whole year and hurt the state's fledgling green jobs industry, doing the exact opposite of what its backers claim: it would actually kill more jobs than create more jobs. (Here in "business-friendly" Texas, the economic situation is also pretty bad, with unemployment here at its highest level since the late '80s [and me being unable to find a job to save my life] and an $18 billion deficit for the 2011 budget session, which will make 2003 look like the good old days.) Polls have shown a low double-digit lead for the No side.
My recommendation: NO! NO! NO! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Fail
Prop. 24 (Corporate Loopholes): A long-overdue measure that would close corporate tax loopholes, reducing the budget deficit by $2 billion.
My recommendation: YES! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up
Prop. 25 (Majority Vote on Budget): Another very long-overdue measure that eliminates the ridiculous 2/3rds rule to pass a budget in the state legislature. This prop is passing by double-digits in the polls.
My recommendation: YES! YES! YES! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Pass
Prop. 26 (Two-Thirds Vote on Fees): Would require two-thirds vote approval for the imposition of certain state and local fees, including those on businesses that adversely impact the local community and environment. The last thing we need is higher vote thresholds.
My recommendation: NO! NO! NO! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up
Prop. 27 (Redistricting Commission): This proposition eliminates the Citizens Redistricting Commission from Prop 11, which barely passed, suggesting some voters have some doubts about its effectiveness. This commission also gives Republicans much more power than their current share of the population.
My recommendation: YES! 10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up
Conservatives really don't like Abel Maldonado. It wouldn't take any sort of political expert to see that. But it seems now that this anger wasn't quenched when St. Abel defeated Sam Aanestad for the Lt. Guv nomination. Nope, now that he flat out ignored the right-wing attempts to get him to file an appeal against the Prop 8 decision, they have had ENOUGH! (It seems to be a theme with these right-wingers.) So, Karen England decided that she is going to do something about it. She's going to run a write-in campaign for Lt. Governor:
She wrote in a column posted last night on the conservative website Flashreport.org that she decided to jump in the race after Maldonado declined to defy Gov. Arnold Schwarzengger and appeal the recent Propostiion (sic) 8 ruling during his six-day stint as acting governor.
"To some this may seem extreme or be dismissed as a publicity stunt. It is neither. It is the proper response when we find the two front runners for the office of Lieutenant Governor do not share our principles, our values or our respect for the legal system," England wrote. (Sac Bee)
Now, the question will be whether there is really enough attention to Ms. England to draw any measurable amount of votes away from St. Abel. Either way, in the net, it is only a positive for Democratic nominee Gavin Newsom.
The Governor is off to China, and he's left his trusty puppet lieutenant in charge of the place. And look, he even gets to play like he's important, getting to sign bills and everything!
Maldonado, who is battling San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the November election for lieutenant governor, is making arrangements to hold a bill signing ceremony in front of Bell City Hall on Monday, according to an e-mail to that city from one of his staffers. A spokeswoman confirmed Maldonado may sign AB 900, which would refund property taxes overcharged by the city of Bell.
"Should the bill be sent to the governor's office, the people of Bell deserve to have their money returned to them," said Erin Shaw, a spokeswoman for Maldonado. "The lieutenant governor will be in Los Angeles on Monday and it makes sense for our staff to put our logistics in place should he be needed to expedite the state's business."
Having been appointed lieutenant governor by Schwarzenegger, who is seen as his mentor, it appears Maldonado is getting some assistance from the governor to grab the media spotlight, according to the e-mail, which talks of the governor's office supplying some of the equipment for the ceremony. (LA Times)
I guess St. Abel is now completely buried the hatchet with the Governor over their little dispute about whether he really loved him or not. In theory, it isn't really all that common for Lt. Governors to actually sign legislation, mostly because they are frequently of differing parties in California. But, in this case, St. Abel has so much experience being Arnold's sock puppet, there really isn't anything new going on here. When you see Abel, you might as well see Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And the people of California just loooooove Arnold Schwarzenegger these days, right?
(cross-posted with permission from my post on DailyKos)
There are few things worse for a politician than an unpaid tax lien, especially in a state like California where our perennial budget crisis makes it even more important for our politicians to demonstrate their commitment to paying their fair share.
Enter Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado, who was appointed by Governor Schwarzenegger to the position after John Garamendi won the special election created by the appointment of Ellen Tauscher to the position of Undersecretary for Arms Control.
According to the Los Angeles Times, Abel Maldonado has had a substantial tax lien placed on his family farm:
The single-page IRS lien indicates that Maldonado owes the government $111,146 for underpaying a category of taxes that include Social Security, Medicare and federal withholding contributions for employees on his 6,000-acre farm in Santa Barbara County.
An IRS spokesman declined to comment on the ongoing case.
Maldonado's people claim that this lien actually arises from a dispute about whether certain vehicles are for public or private use. But as someone who has administrated tax payments for small businesses, this seems like a strange defense: the category of taxes that the IRS is claiming that Maldonado owes are "form 941" taxes, which withhold income taxes, social security taxes and Medicare taxes from employee paychecks. It is possible for this form 941 withholding lien to be the result of a dispute over whether a vehicle is for personal or business use, as the IRS explains in its employer's guide:
You may choose not to withhold income tax on the value of an employee's personal use of a vehicle you provide. You must, however, withhold social security and Medicare taxes on the use of the vehicle. See Publication 15-B for more information on this election.
So this is apparently what this dispute is about. But even if we grant Maldonado the benefit of the doubt here, there's a much larger problem: the tax lien is over $111,000. Do you realize how much the IRS would have to have been estimating the value of the "company vehicle use" he had been engaging in to rack up a tax bill that high? Simple mathematics based on the applicable tax rates would indicate that the total valuation of the "vehicle use" would have to have been in the high six figures, which is unconscionable in and of itself.
Bottom line is, Maldonado has some explaining to do. And it's not even the first time:
It is the ninth time since 1992 that federal, state or local tax collectors have resorted to liens against the Santa Maria Republican's family farm in an effort to compel payments totaling more than $240,000, public records show.
For Lieutenant Governor, California has a much better choice in San Francisco mayor and marriage equality hero Gavin Newsom.
On the left, we tend to cast aside anybody who has a stain on their record fairly quickly. On the right, they celebrate their hatchet men. Of course, I'm referring to the Breitbart/Sherrod debacle.
For those of you living under a rock, rather than really getting into the story I will summarize the incident in two sentences. Andrew Breitbart edited a video tape to falsely characterize a speech that Shirley Sherrod gave to the NAACP as racist. The White House, acting out of shear fear of FOX News, fired her, then re-hired her when Breitbart's editing was shown to be a crock of feces. For more than that, you'll have to see Little Green Footballs. Yes, I really did just link to LGF...it's changing over there. Long story short, the whole right-wing went crazy (including arguing that the extra-judicial beating and murder of Sherrod's relative wasn't actually a lynching because there wasn't a rope involved).
The net result of all that is that Breitbart himself is a man who was outed for exactly what he is, a GOP hatchet man that has little regard for the truth. But, the GOP loves their hatchet men! In fact, Breitbart is headlining an RNC event in Beverly Hills in mid-August that will also feature some pretty high ranking California Republican officials. Jeff Denham, Wally Herger, SoS candidate Damon Dunn, and more. And, oh yeah, the so-called "moderate" Abel Maldonado.
Abel Maldonado needs to denounce the tactics of hate that emerge from Breitbart and his compatriots. If the RNC is to ever gain any sort of credibility with Latinos, it needs to do more than run one elected leader on a statewide ticket. Despite St. Abel thinking he's already being deified (and behaving as such during the budget fight), it's far from the truth. The fact is that on issues that matter, Abel has sided with the GOP base.
For the next few months, Maldonado has a fight on his hands to give the people of California any reason to retain him. He's been a man of obstruction and fighting for what's best for him (and occasionally his new BFF Arnold).
Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado has never been a favorite around these parts. His budget machinations were cruel and unnecessary. He used the entire process merely to gain political advantage. With any luck, we will be rid of him at the end of the year.
But his legacy just might live on in the muck that is Prop 14. He came on to KQED's Forum this week to discuss the "open" primary initiative. He had no facts. He had no support for his outlandish claims. Just his gut.
Then the forum turns to California's new lieutenant governor, Abel Maldonado, one of the main proponents of Prop. 14, and Richard Winger, one of the initiative's more prominent opponents. Maldonado's performance is, in my humble opinion, a trainwreck. He proceeds to list one complaint after another about the state government -- it's broken, it's broke, legislators are highly partisan, they spend too much time on silly issues, they can't pass a budget, politicians misrepresent themselves to voters, etc. -- but then says that the solution is a top-two primary. He never really explains how the latter would correct the former.
Meanwhile, Winger, to his credit, employs actual evidence debunking each of Maldonado's claims one by one. You say more open primaries would make it easier to pass a budget? Well, it turns out the budget was plenty late during Calfornia's use of the blanket primary a decade ago. You say it would make the legislature less partisan? Washington state used a blanket primary for decades, and they're legislature is one of the most partisan in the country. And so on. And all Maldonado does is keep saying, "I've lived it. I've been there." And then he repeats his talking points. It's not a very impressive spectacle. (Enik Rising)
See, you have to wind up St. Abel. Make sure he's got his Talking Points down, and he can be Arnold's voice in the Legislature, or really any other forum. But, ask him to explain himself, and this is what you get.
The problem with the "open" primary system is that it just doesn't do what its supporters claim it will. It doesn't get people more involved. As Seth Masket points out, if anything, it makes people less likely to vote.
But okay, maybe you still want a less polarized legislature. Fine. Would a top-two primary get you there? Not really. The evidence we have suggests that the effect would be small or negligible. There turns out to be very little relationship between a state legislature's partisanship and the openness of its primary elections. Meanwhile, you'll end up with many runoff elections between members of the same party, giving voters not of that party a lot less incentive to participate. (Enik Rising)
Here's what you get with this mess. In a purple district, you get candidates that will tack for the base to make sure they get into the general election. If you get the lion's share of the base, you are likely to get enough votes. How do you do this? Get more polarizing. So, scratch that less polarizing thing.
And in districts where one party controls, you end up getting two candidates of the same party. Let's be honest, does a Republican have a lot of incentive to vote for either of two progressive democrats in a Blue seat? Would you want to vote between some of the two crazy Republicans we'll get in a couple of these districts? Do you hold your nose and vote for the slightly less odious one? Perhaps, but it sure doesn't inspire civic engagement to have to vote for some creep you disdain slightly less than the other creep.
Abel Maldonado sworn in today as Lt Gov, meaning SD15 needs a special election. And Governor just proclaimed it: 6/22 primary, 8/17 general.
That means: less than four months to build a campaign that can prevail in a very winnable special election with a not insignificant Democratic registration advantage.
Mayor Gavin Newsom has entered the race for Lieutenant Governor, a job he ridiculed while running for Governor - and his supporters include San Francisco progressives who figure it's an opportunity to get rid of him. Nonetheless, an endorsement list that includes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Teachers Association and Sacramento's legislative leaders (along with an opponent with unimpressive fundraising totals) should make Newsom the front-runner for the Democratic primary. But it won't be pretty - given that Garry South (who ran his gubernatorial campaign) now works for his competitor, L.A. City Councilmember Janice Hahn. The Hahn campaign has been vicious on Gavin so far, using the kind of scorched-earth tactics that South is famous for. Newsom may win the nomination on June 8th, but he could end up suffering the same fate as Garry South's last victim. Phil Angelides had much of the Democratic leadership behind him when he ran for Governor, but only won the primary after a bruising fight with South client Steve Westly. And it left him so bloodied that he went on to lose the general election by a landslide.
Abel Maldonado is running for LG, whether or not he gets confirmed by the Legislature. Just going on resources, Maldonado should have a big leg up. Sen. Sam Anestad, the only serious threat to Maldonado in the primary, had less than $100K at the end of last year. At this point, the race is his to lose.
So, in his speaking slot, Maldonado is trying to recast the framing of Latinos in his party.
"They agree with us more than they agree with the Democrats," Maldonado told the delegates. "But we don't talk to them. Ronald Reagan, our great president, what did he say? 'Hispanics are Republicans. They just don't know it.' We can't put up a bumper sticker during an election that says 'Viva the candidate's last name' and expect that they're going to vote for us. It's not going to happen. We can't go out and have a fiesta and have tequila and mariachis and tacos and think they are going to register as Republicans. That's not going to happen." (LA Times)
Of course, there's a lot to parse here. Of course, he's right that the republicans need to do more than just have a Cinco de Mayo party and expect voters to come running. The way he said it was rather blunt, but true.
But where most of us would take issue would be the first two sentences in that paragraph. While Maldonado might be able to point out a few issues that Latinos might vote a bit conservatively on, there is a reason that Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, both here in California and throughout the nation. To this day, the party harbors and tosses red meat to nativists who ignore the hope and promise of America for the disfavored. Their immigration policies are more than strict, they are insulting. You can't threaten to arrest community servants who help the sick and poor and expect to get votes from those who you demonize.
But beyond the simple immigration issue, the Republicans also need to take a long, hard look at their policies towards the middle class. Their refusal to support services don't do any favors for working man. They claim to fight taxes, yet want to tax students with ever-increasing "fees." They fight to protect corporations and the rich.
Look, I won't argue with Maldonado's statement that Latinos are dedicated to the pursuit of the American dream. But since Teddy Roosevelt left the Republican party, the Republicans haven't had a real champion that speaks to anybody in the middle class, let alone the growing Latino electorate.
And frankly, Abel Maldonado isn't that voice either. He plays every side of every issue in public. But when the rubber hits the road, he ends up going with the corporatist, moneyed side every time.
Well, it looks like Arnold got around to reading the law, and perhaps the words of the author of that law, and decided that seating St. Abel without the 41 votes is probably a bit rash. So, another tack.
This means two things. First, Mona Pasquil, Garamendi's former CoS, and the state's first Filipino statewide official, keeps her position on the State Lands Commission and the other administrative posts that the LG sits on.
But, the real key here is the timing. The new nomination gives the Legislature another 90 days, and a chance for them to push the nomination back to be combined with the June primary, and to also grab a chance at getting Maldonado's vote for any potential budget deal.
To me, it's not clear that a combined primary/special election really helps John Laird all that much out in the Senate election. However, it would save the state money. Given the rhetoric the Assembly has been using, it seems like it would be quite challenging for them to switch back now to allow him to take the seat. But, stranger things have happened, and this is Sacramento. Your word is only your bond until the next deal comes up.
There, I said it. Former Asm. John Laird is neither flashy nor overly charismatic. But when it comes to quietly doing the work of the people, nobody works harder, knows his stuff better, or really understands the budget better than John Laird. And honestly, we really need him in the Senate.
So, as the Calitics editorial board has pointed out before, the Legislature should approve the nomination of Sen. Abel Maldonado to Lt. Governor. And while the race is going to be competitive, Laird has the horses to win the race:
Laird, a Santa Cruz Democrat, said Monday that the poll gave him a lead "in the low single digits." Respondents were asked twice about the theoretical match-up, first near the beginning of the call with pollsters, then again "after every conceivable thing was thrown and him and me both," Laird said. He said the lead grew slightly after potential negatives were given to respondents. (CapWkly)
This is a winnable race. And a winnable race for a solid progressive that will work his ass off to improve this state. For me, it's an easy call what you do here. But some see otherwise, saying that it's too big of a risk, that it gives up too much. Here's Asm. Pedro Nava:
I will be voting "no" to confirm state Sen. Abel Maldonado to the second-highest constitutional office in California, a heartbeat from the governor, that of lieutenant governor.
Much has been made of his congenial personality, his friendly demeanor and his one vote to increase the minimum wage. But in order to take Sen. Maldonado's true measure, you need to examine over 150 votes on issues of great significance to all Californians - laws that impact farmworkers, health care, civil rights, labor, women, consumers, seniors and the environment. (SacBee)
Look, if given the choice, I doubt there are too many people that would vote for Abel Maldonado for dog catcher around here. Yet, that isn't what this is about. This is a confirmation hearing, not a test of whether you like the guy. Clearly, progressives aren't going to like him, but the same was said of Bruce McPherson when he took over the (arguably more important) SecState gig. The Assembly confirmed him then, including a vote from Asm. Nava. As Sen. Steinberg mentioned last week, this is a vote about whether Maldonado is competent to assume the LG job, and it's hard to argue that Maldonado is any more or less competent to assume that rather powerless gig than any of the candidates in the race for 2010.
Sen. Maldonado's votes are bad. Very bad. So, let's get him out of the Senate where he is casting those votes and into a short stint as LG.
SD-15 needs John Laird. California needs John Laird. A few months of incumbency in a rather banal gig is a risk worth taking. The calculus doesn't actually seem that hard. Confirm Maldonado, and let's get to the business of electing Sen. John Laird.
From Tony Quinn, a Republican strategist, commentator, and author of the Target Book:
The likelihood is growing that the Democratic legislature, in a fit of partisan pique, will turn down Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's nomination of GOP Sen. Abel Maldonado to be lieutenant governor - at least that's what the capital rumor mill says.
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But there one way for Schwarzenegger to ride to the rescue of his embattled nominee: triggering the nuclear option. And what would that be? Schwarzenegger should make it clear that if Steinberg and company reject Maldonado, he will see to it that the proposal titled: "Reduces Legislative Session and Pay by At Least 50 Percent" makes it onto the November ballot. (Fox&Hounds)
Really? Again with the we're not going to confirm St. Abel stuff? Did you not read our letter? Clearly we needed to reiterate: Confirm him. Sure, he's obnoxious, but a simple pro-con analysis yields some simple results.
So, remember how John Garamendi was elected to Congress out of the LG's office? Well, that election will change the course of many others. Interestingly, many of the dominos are falling in the Fresno area, far from the Congressional district. A rough guide from the Fresno Bee:
The first domino to fall was Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's selection of state Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria, as his nominee to replace former lieutenant governor John Garamendi, who left the post when he was elected to Congress.
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Denham's options grew last week when Assembly Member Tom Berryhill, R-Modesto, announced he was running for the state Senate seat of Dave Cogdill, R-Modesto, who is leaving after his first term. Some Valley Republicans want Denham to remain in the Legislature and think he would be a good match to replace Berryhill, the source close to Denham said. Denham would have to move however, because he lives just outside the district. (Fresno Bee
Now, much of this is to do with some hand-wringing in the Republican party over a primary fight for the LG race. But whether Denham runs or not, Sam Aanestad is still in the LG race, and has not indicated whether he would be willing to step aside for Arnold's handpicked LG, Abel Maldonado. If there is a single conservative candidate in the Republican primary, Maldo is in even worse position. A split vote amongst conservatives could allow St. Abel to cruise through. If there's only one conservative, Abel is in for more of a dogfight. Of course, Arnold would like to clear the field for Abel, but it isn't like Arnold has much sway in the GOP these days.
You have to love (or not) the twisted game of musical chairs in Sacramento these days.
While we may not agree on St. Abel being the glorious one full of bipartisanship, Skelton and the Calitics editorial board do agree on one thing: Confirm Maldonado.
It would be particularly dumb for Democrats to dump all over a Republican who has fought with them in their foxhole. That would send a lousy message about the rewards of bipartisan cooperation.
The smart thing would be to confirm Maldonado. He may be too moderate to survive a GOP primary anyway.
Democrats could contest his vacated Senate seat in a special election. It's competitive. Win that and they're within one vote of a two-thirds majority. But Democrats aren't confident they can capture that Central Coast seat in a low-turnout special election in what could be a Republican year.
They should do the right thing anyway: Confirm a decent, qualified guy and avoid another self-inflicted wound. (LAT)
Not much to disagree with about the electoral stuff; it is an excellent opportunity. Not an easy campaign by any stretch of the imagination, but a winnable campaign.
As for "decent, qualified guy", well, I'm sure it's not hard to find a few million people who would argue with his scheming of the budget process to get his dream come true open primary measure.
Interestingly, Maldo sees this job as a cheerleader for Arnold. Kind of appropriate as he has been his mouthpiece in the Senate for a few years.
So what would Abel Maldonado do on oil drilling? During the budget process, Maldo voted against the Tranquillion Ridge project, despite voting for much of the rest of the package. However, Schwarzenegger, who also once opposed offshore drilling, moved to support it over the last year.
If Maldonado is confirmed, he would have a vote on the important state lands commission. That would make his position on the issue quite important.
Jim Boren of the Fresno Bee asked Sen. Maldonado precisely that question, and got some political speak in response:
"As you know, I have voted No several times. So my record speaks for itself. I always look at things in a case by case basis. . . And I have not looked at the state lands analysis. I will soon. I'm going to request it."
He's definitely maybe going to look into the issue to review the analysis of the question. That Maldo...sure does love his ambiguity.
Former state Assemblyman John Laird of Santa Cruz and current Assemblyman Bill Monning of Carmel, both Democrats, say they would consider running for Maldonado's seat. On the Republican side, Assembly Minority Leader Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo has expressed interest....
While Laird said it was too early to decide on a Senate run, he said he would consider it should Maldonado become lieutenant governor. His bid would require him to move from his current home on Santa Cruz's Westside, since he now lives in Sen. Joe Simitian's district, to nearby Scotts Valley or points south, something Laird said he is willing to do.
"I represented a significant amount of that district when I was in the Assembly: Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, Monterey County," he said.
Monning, who replaced Laird in the Assembly last year, said Tuesday he would also weigh a run for the Senate.
Meanwhile, Assemblyman Blakeslee, considered the Republican front-runner for Maldonado's seat, has already raised more than a quarter million dollars to seek that office in 2012, according to filings with the Secretary of State. Blakeslee's office, reached by phone Tuesday, declined to comment.
This all jibes with what I'm hearing on the ground here in Monterey County. It's a certainty that Blakeslee would run in the special election on the Republican side, and he will likely have a clear field.
On the Democratic side, either Laird or Monning would be strong candidates. Both hail from the northern half of the district, so they'd have to run a strong campaign in San Luis Obispo County and Santa Maria, where Blakeslee currently represents. But given that SD-15 has a 6.5 point Democratic registration advantage, and given that we in SD-15 voted for Obama by a 20-point margin, there's every reason to believe either Laird or Monning would be able to do well in the southern half of the seat. Plus, it's not exactly going to be hard to entice Southern California progressive activists to make the trek to that part of the beautiful Central Coast in the spring to help organize in SLO and Santa Maria.
It is also unlikely that Laird and Monning would face off against each other. Instead they would almost certainly find some way to work it out and ensure that only one of them runs for the seat.
The race between Laird/Monning and Blakeslee would be a battle over California's future. We can expect Blakeslee to argue that a vote for his Democratic opponent is a vote for a certain tax increase, and that a vote for Blakeslee is the only way to stop Democrats from raising taxes. Laird or Monning would counter by pointing out that they're going to save local K-12 schools and higher education (San Jose State, UC Santa Cruz, CSU Monterey Bay, and Cal Poly SLO have been hit hard by the budget cuts, as have the district's community colleges), and provide for the economic growth and recovery that Blakeslee and the Republicans refuse to offer.
It is the kind of battle Democrats and progressives should wholly embrace. Laird and Monning are both deeply progressive people, the kind of Democrats we can get excited about putting in office. Central Coast Democrats aren't just excited about winning the seat, but winning it with the kind of Democrat that we're proud to work hard to elect, the kind of Democrat who knows the way forward for our failing state.
No matter which Democrat ultimately becomes the candidate in SD-15, we will have the strongest chance we've had in a very long time to finally win the 2/3 majority we so desperately need in order to finally solve California's crisis. Bring it on!
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, back in July:
The 2/3 requirement that we have in this state. I know it's a tired old saw. But when you really think about, that is the cause of so much of the dysfunction in the legislature. you have a minority party that obviously worked in tandem with the governor that cost the state 6-7 billion dollars tonight for no good reason. To somehow improve your negotiating position. It is without question the most irresponsible act that I have seen in my 15 years of public service...I hope that the significance will truly capture enough attention that the people will decide it is time to change the system that allows the minority to essentially rule the day. That's not just the Senate Republicans, it was the Governor too, who was apparently out to prove a point. And he proved a point.
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, today:
State Senate Leader Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) released a statement expressing "grave doubts" about the choice. Maldonado needs the approval of the Democratic-dominated Legislature to take the post.
Steinberg cited the $2-million cost of the special election that would be required to fill Maldonado's Senate seat, suggesting the money could be better spent scaling back recent fee hikes at state colleges and universities.
The Senate leader, under pressure to keep the post open for Democrats running for lieutenant governor themselves in next year's election, also suggested he would like to see the job left vacant.
"It may be both fiscally and politically prudent to permit the people to make their own selection for this statewide office next year and avoid the expense of a costly special election," his statement said.
Once again, we see that the State Senate is unwilling to actually do what it takes to overcome the 2/3rds rule that has crippled our state. Instead of seizing a golden opportunity to win one of the two seats we need to get a 2/3rds majority, Steinberg prefers to help coddle a fellow Democratic Senator's unwillingness to face Maldonado in a general election.
Steinberg and other Senators are starting to put out the talking points to defend their weakness. But none of them hold water. The election to replace Maldonado here in SD-15 can be combined with the June primary, saving money. But even if it weren't combined, the $2 million or so is statistically negligible when compared to the billions of dollars in cuts Steinberg is apparently willing to accept by refusing to take the chance to win a 2/3rds majority next year (along with the race to replace Jeff Denham in SD-12, a district with a D+12 registration advantage).
Additionally, voters themselves are going to have the chance to pick the next Lt. Gov., and confirming Maldonado will not change that fact, as Steinberg implies. If Steinberg believes Maldonado is a formidable candidate in the GOP primary or in the general election, he is badly misreading the political landscape.
Capitol Democrats said there was a more calculated political reason for not wanting to let Maldonado go. Democrats were humbled by this year's election results in New Jersey and Virginia, and fear that 2010 could be a bad Democratic year. In addition, a low turn-out special election may make it tougher for a Democrat to win the 15th Senate District seat currently held by Maldonado.
Democrats have a slight 41-35 percent registration advantage in the district. Nearly 20 percent of the district's voters are decline to state. The district has been home to moderate Republicans like Bruce McPherson, and overwhelming voted for Schwarzenegger over Phil Angelides in 2006 - 61 percent - 34 percent. But in 2004, John Kerry narrowly carried the district over George W. Bush - 52 percent - 46 percent.
What the article doesn't note is that Obama carried the seat by 20 points last year. And if it is turnout they're concerned about, a candidate like John Laird will have no problem generating enthusiasm from progressives and Democrats across the state, who will gladly spend a late spring here on the Central Coast to put a good progressive in the State Senate.
More damning is the basic philosophy behind this "gee, winning the 15th is gonna be hard" nonsense. If Democrats are scared of winning a seat where they hold a 6 point registration advantage, a seat Obama won by 20 points, then they really have a serious problem providing the leadership this state needs.
Next year we'll hear Democratic legislators exhorting us to help them in other Assembly and Senate races, saying that we have to help them win 2/3rds. But by refusing to actually go for 2/3rds when given the chance, they're showing the California Democratic base that the Senate is fundamentally unserious about restoring majority rule.
The only conclusion one can draw from this is that Senate Democrats don't actually care about the 2/3rds rule. That they prefer the status quo to having to actually take the opportunities they are given and take a winnable seat, or to set up a hated rival (Maldonado) to spectacularly fail when he can't get elected Lt. Gov. next year.
UPDATE: The Courage Campaign, where I work as Public Policy Director, released this statement today on the Maldonado appointment:
"The best thing we can do right now is to remove Sen. Abel Maldonado from a position of importance where he can do great damage, the California State Senate, and place him in an irrelevant post, the Lt. Governor's office," said Rick Jacobs, Chair of the 700,000-member Courage Campaign. "For once, we agree with the Governor - Abel Maldonado should be demoted to Lt. Governor."
Your most important task right now - above all others - is to solve California's political and economic crisis. And as your own leader explained, at the heart of that crisis is the undemocratic rule creating a conservative veto over all state policy via the 2/3rds rule.
Therefore, in order to deal with that task, your highest electoral priority is to win a 2/3rds majority in the State Senate. The party a clear majority of Californians have asked govern this state - the Democratic Party - should be able to govern this state and lead us out of the worst crisis we've faced in decades, if not longer.
Without a 2/3rds majority, California faces deeper budget cuts that will produce very real suffering for many of your constituents. In addition, the ongoing budget crisis continues to give Republicans an opportunity to reverse recent Democratic gains, which at some point may include the State Senate itself. Those factors should be enough to convince you that when you have an opportunity to win a 2/3rds majority, you should take it.
Especially when this year you have seen the fruits of not having a 2/3rds majority - and the fruit of cutting a bad, self-defeating political deal involving the same Abel Maldonado.
When your previous leader, Don Perata, agreed to prevent a Democrat from launching a meaningful challenge to Maldonado in the 15th State Senate district, not only were Central Coast Democrats denied a realistic chance to be represented in Sacramento, but a golden opportunity to get to the 2/3rds mark in the Senate was lost. After all, the most recent registration numbers show that SD-15 is a blue district, with 41% Dems, 34.5% Reps, and 23% DTS. It is a district Obama won by over 20 points.
It is a district that, because of Don Perata's deal, sent Abel Maldonado back to Sacramento without a real reelection fight. Once there, Maldonado used his role as a deal-maker to force through a major change in how state elections work in the form of the top two primary. Most of you don't like it, and are going to try and defeat it, and if it passes it's going to seriously screw with your future plans.
But it, and other bad deals, are constantly coming your way because you don't have a 2/3rds majority.
2010 offers an invaluable opportunity for you to finally reach 2/3rds. Of the key State Senate races next year, the only seat you have a chance of flipping from red to blue is SD-12. Anna Caballero is going to run a great campaign and win that seat. But unless you can find another seat to add to her victory and bring us to 2/3rds, nothing will change.
That is, unless you vote to confirm Abel Maldonado, and put SD-15 into play. Sure, you could wait until 2012 when the seat comes open - but by then legislative districts will have been drawn by the Prop 11 commission, and who knows what the landscape will look like. Why pass up an opportunity to have a Democratic governor and 2/3rds in the Senate - especially when we can find 3 seats to pick up in the Assembly?
Now, some may complain about giving Abel Maldonado a leg up on the competition. This is a ridiculous consideration for two reasons. First, even if it were true, it's a price well worth paying to get to 2/3rds, which is after all your top priority.
Second, even a cursory glance at the politics shows Maldonado will not be much of a threat, and should be easily defeated by a Democrat next fall. In case you've forgotten, he is hated by the Republican base for his February budget vote. Those people have long memories. Even before that vote he was having trouble winning primaries thanks to the fundamental and deeply-seeded racism of the California Republican electorate.
Even if Maldonado somehow staggers through the primary, he will be bloodied and bruised, and quite a bit poorer for the effort. We are confident that either Dean Florez or Janice Hahn will be able to defeat him in the general election.
Calitics has been a strong critic of Abel Maldonado. He is certainly not our first, second, or seventy-third choice for the Lt. Gov. office. But we are willing to swallow it for the greater good. You need to do so as well.
There is no credible reason to refuse to confirm Maldonado. The only reason you would be doing so is by placing the ambitions of other Senators above your own, and above the needs of a state facing a crisis so deep and so crippling that it threatens much more than Republican control of the Lt. Gov. office.
We need a party and a Senate Democratic caucus that is aggressive, assertive, bold, and confident in its ability to lead California out of the crisis. If you refuse to confirm Abel Maldonado, you would be showing Californians that you in fact lack that confidence.
We don't know how much clearer we can make it. If you refuse to confirm Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor for any reason other than incompetence or ethical misdeeds that make him unfit to serve, then you are abandoning your obligations to California Democrats and to the people of this state.
Attention Senator Florez: if concerns about your upcoming election for Lieutenant Governor are in any way influencing your statement that you don't see the Senate you're in charge of confirming Schwarzenegger's appointment of Abel Maldonado to that same seat, I just want to say:
Don't worry, be happy!
See, I can understand that you might be concerned that facing someone who could now put his title as "appointed incumbent" might make a general election campaign more difficult, but the likelihood is that you wouldn't be facing him anyway. You might, after all, recall the story about Maldonado's last run for statewide office, as reported by Robert Cruickshank. If you don't, I'll just reprint it in full.
State Sen. Abel Maldonado, the deciding vote in the big state budget morass, came to see me last week with a very interesting story about his fellow Republicans.
I was telling him what a good name he has, because no one can figure out if it is Spanish, Italian or Portuguese.
He proceeded to tell me that when he was running for state controller in 2006, he commissioned a poll to gauge the feelings of Republican voters in Orange County.
The poll came back showing him losing to the Democrat by almost 2-1.
"This is impossible," Maldonado said. "Orange County is loaded with Republicans."
They did the poll again and the results were the same - the Democrat won.
So Maldonado ran a little test. He had the pollster go back and give voters the same information as before - his age, that he's a rancher and the like - but this time, he said, tell them the candidate's name is Smith.
The result: Smith came out ahead.
So he ran another poll, a Republican named Garcia vs. a Democrat named Smith.
Smith won again, even among Republicans.
At that point, Maldonado said, "We're not spending another nickel - there ain't no way that anyone with a Spanish name is going to win anything in a Republican primary in this state."
He was right, in his case at least - he lost the primary to Tony Strickland.
Keep in mind, of course, that this was in 2006--a few years before the inmates took over the asylum that is the Republican Party. And keep in mind, I'm not just talking about the racial aspect. I'm also specifically referring to the difficulty that moderate Republicans of any ethnicity will have in winning a primary against a more conservative opponent, especially in light of the fact that RNC is in fact on the verge of imposing a purity test that would be pretty hard for Maldonado to meet, compared to a potential primary opponent.
Bottom line: Dean Florez and the rest of the Democrats in the Senate should be licking their chops in anticipation of getting a chance at this seat.
On the left, we tend to cast aside anybody who has a stain on their record fairly quickly. On the right, they celebrate their hatchet men. Of course, I'm referring to the Breitbart/Sherrod debacle.