Starting with Hillary Clinton back in February, several presidential candidates so far this year have visited Google headquarters in Mountain View, CA for a one-on-one chat (Clinton) or a full-fledged townhall meeting (McCain, Richardson and Edwards) in front of 1,000 or so Google employees. While we always hear about Google executives being a great source of Silicon Valley cash for the candidates, these forums are more akin to, as Carla Marinucci puts it,
the New Hampshire pancake breakfast, the Iowa school auditorium, [or] the South Carolina church hall.
Yes, retail politics IS happening right here in California and, thanks to Google's YouTube channel (umm, yeah they have one) the forums are available for all of us to see. They give us a rare glimpse of the candidates off script (rare for those of us not in N.H. or Iowa or permanently glued to CSPAN that is.) And while the candidates do their best to stick to the basic elements of their stump speeches, it's the unexpected little moments that are most interesting, such as Hillary Clinton's sense of humor, the warm war hero's welcome John McCain receives or the stumbles of Richardson (calling on Google to go solar when they already have) and Edwards (it was in this forum that he mistakenly claimed to have read the Iraq NIE.) And yes the candidates even talk California such as when Hillary repeated her praise for California's having kept electricity usage steady over the past two decades while nationwide it's increased 50%.
Want to get a close-up and personal look at the candidates, check out the videos over the flip:
Conventional wisdom has long had it that California's decision to move up its primary to February 5 (along with many other states) would result in several undesirable consequences, not least among them being the increased importance of money in the campaign and the rise in influence of Iowa and New Hampshire (although how they could be more influential than they were in 2004 is beyond me.) Both of these scenarios, so the argument goes, point to a Hillary Clinton victory, making a February 5 "national" primary all the more problematic.
But over the past few months, reality, as it is wont to do, has seeped in and undermined the conventional wisdom. Take Q1 fundraising -- Obama outraised Clinton in primary funds taking her title of presumed money leader away; and then there are the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, which have generally shown her to be much more vulnerable in the early states than she is nationwide. So what's a poor would-be front runner to do when the conventional wisdom that she had relied on to take her to victory falls down around her? It looks increasingly as though Clinton's answer is to buck conventional wisdom altogether and run hard for February 5.
This strategy requires the dismantling of one of the central assumptions about a frontloaded primary schedule, namely the heightened kingmaker status of Iowa and New Hampshire.
In the video below, Edwards addresses two of your most pressing issues, health care reform and energy independence. He then goes on to answer a specific question from Jane in Los Angeles:
My three issues are poverty, peace and global warming. I see them as connected. Do you? What would you do to address them, both domestically and internationally? Are they your top priorities and if not, why not?
Now that Memorial Day is behind us, 2nd quarter fundraising begins in earnest and you know what that means -- time to visit the ATM. In the next couple weeks, the top tier Democratic candidates will be visiting California in force with Clinton and Obama each following the other's lead meeting with donors in SoCal, while Edwards, as he has done throughout his campaign, strikes out on his own speaking to regular voters up north.
On Wednesday, Hillary begins her visit to L.A. with one of her usual large-dollar fundraisers at the home of Fox COO Peter Chernin but will then head to a younger hipper event at the Beverly Hills area home of director Brett Ratner in search of what Variety calls "new dollars."
As the year goes on, it becomes harder and harder to find untapped donors, particularly since so many people have maxed out. They cannot give more. So like Barack Obama, Clinton is turning to cheaper and hipper events. Ratner’s event costs $250 per person, $500 per person to also get into an after-party, and $1,000 for a VIP reception, the main reception and after-party.
Obama on the other hand will be heading to Hillary's stomping grounds down in Orange County on June 11 for a $2,300/plate (or $4,600 if you want to max out for the general too!) breakfast hosted by the OC Democratic Party at the home of Michael & Shohleh Chegini.
Yesterday, Governor Bill Richardson announced that he will be making his candidacy for president official on Monday with a speech at the Los Angeles Press Club. Speaking on The L.A.-based Stephanie Miller Show this morning, Richardson joked that Monday's announcement of something we already knew is merely his third "bite at the apple...most candidates are on their eighth or so."
Monday's speech also gives him an opportunity to cast Los Angeles, and California more generally, as central to his campaign for president. As he said to Miller this morning (approximate transcript, I was in the car...):
Being Hispanic, I have a real opportunity in California. Especially now that the primary is so early, it's even more important. Usually candidates come in to pick your pockets but this year, California is really going to play a role.
The math is easy: a/o the 2004 census, California has the largest Hispanic population of any state with 12.4 million or 35% of the state's entire population. Because of this, Richardson really sees California's earlier primary as a potential lift to his campaign and his eager engagement with the state has reflected this. Not only was he the most specific in San Diego when asked to speak to California issues ("You guys have a traffic problem..." ) but he's also been directly involved with ATM Watch, responding to Californians's questions via video, and more recently he appeared at a labor union in Los Angeles doing what's virtually unheard of in California: old fashioned retail politics.
In Survey USA's post-debate poll of 317 California adults who watched the GOP debate on Thursday (h/t The Right's Field), a full 30% felt that Giuliani had won the debate; Romney and McCain were essentially tied for second place with 12% and 11% respectively; and 16% of respondents weren't sure who had won. The partisan breakdown of respondents was 45% Republican, 30% Democratic and 22% Decline to State.
What I find more interesting than winners and losers though is the fact that Survey USA had to poll 2,400 Californians to find 317 who'd actually seen the debate. That's a paltry 13% response rate. Compare that to the survey of South Carolina adults after the Democrats debated there a week prior. There, of the 1,250 SC adults interviewed, 403 said they had listened to the debate, or an enviable 32%. Survey USA draws an interesting conclusion:
For comparison purposes, 1 in 3 South Carolinians watched the Democratic debate, compared to 1 in 8 Californians who watched the Republican debate. Californians are far less engaged in political process than Carolinians, at this stage.
More (including a look at the poll's crosstabs) over the flip...
The Republican candidates for president are in Simi Valley, CA at the Reagan library today for the first Republican debate of the 2008 presidential season. And while the location has more to do with the conservative icon whose library is playing host than the fact that it's in California, we at ATMWatch will be watching for references to California's primary and the issues Californians care about.
The debate will start at 5pm PDT (webcast available HERE) and is co-sponsored by MSNBC and politico.com, which asked people to submit questions online to be asked of the candidates during the debate, much as we are asking regular voters for questions to ask the candidates HERE. We're getting your questions to the campaigns and we'll have our first candidate response video next week.
Now, while we're used to asking candidates questions, we're not so used to candidates asking other candidates questions but that's exactly what John Edwards has done in advance of tonight's debate. His question for the Republican candidates:
"Has the Bush doctrine of a Global War on Terror backfired? Does the president's focus suggest a fixed enemy that can be defeated through a permanent military campaign or do you think we need a broader approach as many military leaders believe?"
1/3 of tonight's debate will be devoted to answering questions submitted online and will be voted on by readers. Hopefully we'll be able to rate Edwards's question up so it gets asked. Would love to hear them defend Bush's war strategy or even claim with a straight face that there is one. Consider this an open thread.
The speeches the candidates gave on the floor of the CDP convention this weekend were peppered with allusions to California but rarely in any substantive way. The "good morning, California Democrats!" here and the "We need to make sure Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House!" there. Not surprisingly, the speeches were variations on their stump speeches, which they give everywhere.
That's where the post-speech press conferences came in. Many of the journalists asking questions were local and were interested in how the primary being moved up impacted the candidates' campaign strategies. The candidates' responses said a lot about each of them as candidates. You had the extremely disciplined Hillary Clinton rave about California when it came to discussing the endorsements of local Assemblymembers but when it came to answering a specific California-based question (from our friends at Speak Out CA!), she shifted to standard stump speech talking points. John Edwards, who has a healthy skepticism of the media (I wonder why, he was asked about hedge funds and haircuts for crying out loud) was less forthcoming and even a bit dismissive, although he did engage in some primary strategy speculation. And the down in the polls Bill Richardson was the most eager to engage with the local press in hopes of gaining some traction. He had some great answers including referring to California as an "ATM machine" ( we didn't pay him to do it, I swear!), offering solutions for California's transportation problem and the gem "if I go to every living room in California I'd be dead."
The videos are over the flip and of course at ATM Watch as well.
At the press conference I posted about over at ATM Watch, a journalist told Hillary the following regarding the delegates on the floor:
"Obama has their heart, you have their head."
Now, Obama hasn't spoken yet (he's on at 2pm) but his campaign is certainly the most visible here at the convention and you get the sense that his supporters are the most passionate. And while there was some excitement on the floor in anticipation of Hillary's speech, mostly among young women, there was very little as she was actually speaking. And her speech reflected why. She committed the cardinal Democratic sin: making a laundry list of what she will do as president.
At the press conference I posted about over at ATM Watch, a journalist told Hillary the following regarding the delegates on the floor:
"Obama has their heart, you have their head."
Now, Obama hasn't spoken yet (he's on at 2pm) but his campaign is certainly the most visible here at the convention and you get the sense that his supporters are the most passionate. And while there was some excitement on the floor in anticipation of Hillary's speech, mostly among young women, there was very little as she was actually speaking. And her speech reflected why. She committed the cardinal Democratic sin: making a laundry list of what she will do as president.
(We're still giving them the big bucks... But now they need to pay attention to what we have to say! Ya know, California's about much more than just money. : ) - promoted by atdleft)
by Erik Love
April 15 was the deadline for the 2008 Presidential Candidates to submit their official first quarter fundraising reports. Those of us following ATM Watch, the Courage Campaign project that monitors visits to California from the '08 candidates, are not surprised to learn that California gave more dollars to the campaigns than any other state.
None of the major candidates in the race is originally from California, which makes our generosity all the more impressive. Californians donated some 20 million dollars to the presidential campaigns, with Democrats raising $8 for every $5 raised by the Republicans. No other state gave as much to the campaigns.
This is notable because it's been the pattern in presidential campaigns for so long -- come to California for money, but go to Iowa for votes. ATM Watch's goal to to change all that -- to make California not just a place for political donations, but also a place where the candidates must tell us about their positions on the issues that we think are important.
Check out this interactive map to see specific California donations for each candidate in the race, and be sure to join us at ATM Watch to hold the candidates to account as they continue to visit our state.
Over the past few weeks it's become quite evident that John Edwards is running for California...and he's running for it hard. The interesting thing about how he's doing it is that, against all conventional wisdom, he's managed to mount an inexpensive stealth campaign made up of campaign stops both conventional (rallies at colleges) and unconventional (an appearance at a Santa Monica Democratic club, a visit with Fresno farm workers and a recent Q&A with reporters in San Francisco, which I diaried with a link to video HERE) in between stops for California campaign cash.
More over the flip including some incredible new Survey USA numbers...
It's official, Courage Campaign's ATM Watch is live! With the help of Speaker Fabian Nunez, we've launched ATMWatch.org where all our blog posts and videos are aggregated and where there's an opportunity for everyone to get in on the act.
What issues are on your mind? Ask the candidates a question HERE and we'll get the questions to the candidates.
Have you seen a candidate and want to tell us about your experience? Blog it in our ATM Watch group HERE.
And of course, read the comings and goings of the candidates as they traverse California on the blog HERE. We update it every Friday.
Our goal is to start a dialogue between the candidates and every day Californians. In the coming months, we'll be bringing you more live reports (which we'd like to be largely user-generated) and even video responses from the candidates and maybe even a townhall forum or two to really get the candidates in front of California voters. Gone are the days when California is merely an ATM for presidential candidates.
This is Clinton-Gore country -- or it was once. Now, several of former President Bill Clinton's earliest and biggest fund-raisers -- such as Sandy Robertson, founder of investment bank Robertson Stephens and a partner at technology buyout firm Francisco Partners; and Steve Westly, an ex-eBay Inc. executive and former controller for California -- have defected to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
The article cites several reasons for this movement away from Sen. Clinton, including fears that she is too ideologically rigid for their pro-business sensibilities, that she comes off as too "cold and calculating" to be electable and that Obama appeals much more to the newly wealthy under-35 Silicon Valley contingent.
This past Saturday, 12,000 of my closest friends and I gathered in Oakland to see (or in some cases, just hear...) Barack Obama speak. It's nice to see Senator Obama giving the public some face time while he swings through our state to do what we know every presidential candidate must: make a withdrawal from the ATM that is California.
After the rally the senator headed off to the Mark Hopkins Hotel in SF for a fundraiser but not before wowing the crowd in Oakland. As one would expect, Obama gave a variation on his stump speech in which he rails against cynicism and offers something different, what he calls the politics of hope. And judging by the crowd's reaction, at least those who were close enough to see the senator, hope is much more than just a buzzword...the optimism in the air was palpable. It felt almost celebratory. As Frank wrote HERE, this phenomenon is real.
Over the flip, my take with video of most of his speech and some photos. I think I can safely say that Saturday will go down as my most memorable St. Patrick's Day ever.
OK, so you probably know by now that I wasn't able to see Mitt Romney on Friday in Dana Point. However, Jon Fleischman did. While I was out in the cold, he was in on all the action... And yes, Fleischman now has his account of the Romney fundraiser up on FlashReport.
Here are some of Romney's "Greatest Hits" from Friday's swanky fundraiser. For more videos, go to Jon's blog.
Why doesn't the Republican Party like its own voters? Why won't the GOP candidates talk to the people who will be making a huge decision next February? Why do the candidates only come to Orange County for the big money, and avoid everyone who could not possibly afford to join the big money at these extravagant fundraisers?
As we know, the presidential candidates like to swoop in to California for money and often swoop right out again without speaking to voters who can't afford the 4-figure price of admission. Well, now, thanks to the power of the Internet, we can all listen in on what goes on inside those fundraisers.
John McCain held a $1,000/plate event at the Hyatt Regency in Irvine, CA on Monday and who was there with videocamera in hand but right wing blogger Jon Fleischman (his You Tube channel.) Thanks to him for the insightful video.
In this first piece, McCain makes the case for his candidacy, not just as a candidate for president nationally, but as a candidate seeking California's support specifically. The most intriguing quote:
California must be in play if any Republican wants to be elected president of the United States of America.
I'll be in Dana Point on Friday to track down Mitt Romney as he hits up the big Orange County Republican donors for money. So how about you? It would be great if we had a Southern California group that tracks down these Presidential hopefuls as they visit the super-rich donors and spend time with them, and it would be even BETTER if this group were to ask these candidates why they don't talk to all the rest of us about their plan to get out of Iraq, or about their plan to provide health care coverage to the 47 MILLION PEOPLE in this nation who have none, or simply why they spend all this time with a select few when ALL OF US plan to be voting next February as well...
Here in California, we're used to presidential candidates swooping in for fundraisers before taking off to Iowa or New Hampshire to engage with those states' primary voters on our dime.
Well, now that our primary is moving up to February 5, 2008, things are changing, and as the candidates come and go, The Courage Campaign's ATM Watch will be tracking them. It is our hope that in between fundraising stops, the candidates actually take some time to speak to California's voters about California's issues. And so far, no one is living up to this ideal more than John Edwards.
This past Saturday, 12,000 of my closest friends and I gathered in Oakland to see (or in some cases, just hear...) Barack Obama speak. It's nice to see Senator Obama giving the public some face time while he swings through our state to do what we know every presidential candidate must: make a withdrawal from the ATM that is California.