The California Labor Fed is about to release a new mail campaign against Yacht Party legislators who are voting to slash workers' rights and holding up a budget over unrelated labor issues. You can click the "Full Screen" button to get a better view.
Every two years we see this sort of mail. The trouble is that when people get this stuff, they are concurrently bombarded with a thousand other mail pieces. It is good to see the Labor Fed get out in front of this. They'll be sending these to Republican districts across the state. I'll plug more information in here when I can confirm. I imagine they'll be looking at the swing districts, so maybe Berryhill's AD-25, and Audra Strickland's AD-37.
While I like the effort, I think this piece could be a bit stronger against Gilmore. It seems that they bury the lead a little bit by only mentioning the fact that Californians are about to get IOUs because Gilmore and cohorts are holding up the budget. Holding up the budget is a massive burden to lower income Californians who can't wait for their refunds while Republicans dither away.
I'll update this upon further information, but it's always a good thing to see progressives attacking the GOP obstructionists early and often.
UPDATE: I've just been told that the plan is to do more than just mail, but a full-court press in several districts. If done properly, this could potentially help provide groundwork to actually nab 2/3 in 2010, along with a Democratic governor.
The LA Times has decided to expose, not before Election Day but a month after, the juicy little fact that 1/4 of all state lawmakers have outside jobs which can cause direct conflicts of interest with their lawmaking duties, as they often vote on legislation that directly impacts their private income.
There can be a case made, though not a compelling one, that the shortness of legislative terms requires lawmakers to have some backup income in place for the future beyond their $150,000 a year salary. However, when termed-out legislators can grab highly sought and lucrative state board positions, that point becomes fairly moot. Not to mention the fact that political donors can continue to fund termed-out politicians for "strategic purposes," a perfectly legal enterprise.
Assemblywoman Nicole Parra may have found the perfect antidote to life in the Assembly doghouse - travel to political bashes in Maui, Las Vegas, Chicago and New Orleans, courtesy of political donors [...]
Campaign disclosure statements show that Parra, a lame-duck lawmaker who did not seek election to another office, largely emptied her campaign coffers this year - in part by spending thousands of dollars on travel, meals, parties and conferences [...] Parra spent more than $150,000 in campaign funds this year, including donations of $30,000 to WEAVE in Sacramento, $15,000 to the California Democratic Party, and $3,600 apiece to about a half-dozen legislative colleagues.
California law allows legislators to spend unlimited campaign sums for a political, legislative or governmental purpose.
My larger beef is with the 38 million who permit this activity through our collective silence, relatively speaking. Without an independent media dedicated to exposing sunlight and ferreting out these ugly deals inside Sacramento, and then without significant follow-up from citizens and groups to force consequences, we basically get the government we deserve. California's media landscape shrinks almost by the day, as a nation-state of 38 million has a number of political reporters that you may not even have to go into double digits to count. The "watchdog" groups are competent press release factories, but extract little in the way of consequences. And everybody has so internalized the concept that state elections are essentially a formality, including both sides of the political aisle, that the public wastes its own opportunity to have a voice on these matters. The perfect example is AD-30 this year, a hotly contested race with millions of dollars spent on both sides, which attracted an appalling 84,804 voters total at last count, less than half of the number for a similarly contested race in AD-10, and close to 1/3 of eligible voters, registered and unregistered, in the Bakersfield-area district. And this was a Presidential election! If I were elected from there I'd be embarrassed to serve.
This outright apathy allows corruption to slip through the cracks, as an unwatched Sacramento goes about its plunder. The byzantine series of rules have made California ungovernable because so few people show a legitimate interest in changing them. The future of California lies only in finding more people who care about the state than currently exist. Otherwise, a narrow political class will continue to take profits, and nobody will even notice.
• I'll remind you about this on Monday, but if you're looking for some election day activities in LA, how about this phonebank at USC?
• The Palo Alto Police Chief is in hot water after 'she instructed officers to stop African-Americans and "find out who they are."' Classy, but she meant something else entirely, I'm sure.
• On the national front, our "post-partisan" governor called Barack Obama "scrawny." Apparently he loved the whole girly-man blowback so much, he thought he'd give it another shot. For reals:
"We're going to make him do some squats, and then we're going to give him some bicep curls to beef up those scrawny little arms, but if you only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas," he said. "Sen. McCain on the other hand is built like a rock," Schwarzenegger joked.
Schwarzenegger questioned Obama's readiness to be president, noting that McCain "served this country longer in a POW camp than his opponent has served in the United States Senate," he said, as the crowd roared with approval. "Ladies and gentlemen, I only play an action hero in my movies, but John McCain is a real action hero." (LA Times10/31)
Yes, apparently the same cliches he's been using in California haven't gone out of style in Ohio yet.
Neither campaign would release its polling numbers, but both acknowledged that the affluent, heavily Republican coastal district that has primed Rohrabacher for victories in excess of 20 points in every election for the last decade will not be quite as friendly to the GOP candidate this year.
General frustration with the Bush administration, which has overseen the rapid deterioration of the American economy, is one of the biggest factors in heralding the turnaround for Democrats, according to UCI political science professor Carole Uhlaner.
"Given the combination of a strong, well-known current official with good funding and the change in the national tide there's a chance that Rohrabacher could lose," Uhlaner said.
And our pal Todd Beeton of MyDD writes up the great event for Debbie I attended yesterday. But the pivotal moment of the campaign might be tomorrow at 11:15am. Dana Rohrabacher and Debbie Cook will debate for the only time in the campaign. We all know that when Crazy Dana opens his mouth, bad things happen for him. We've seen on a national level what can happen to candidates with loose lips and an extremist ideology - ask Michelle Bachmann. So we'll be monitoring the debate tomorrow.
• CA-03: For some reason, Bill Durston is taking very seriously the Sacramento Bee's endorsement of Dan Lungren. Through his outreach to supporters, the letters to the editor in the wake of the endorsement were entirely on Durston's side. I don't think these newspaper endorsements mean much, but it is something incumbents can use in their advertising, so it does have an impact. And frequently these local editorial boards are pushing a conservative agenda that is resistant to change.
Speaking of debates, Lungren and Durston also have one tomorrow. So there should be a lot of post-debate highlights to discuss.
• CA-04: I tend to think that this story, flagged by Dante over the weekend, is just devastating for Tom McClintock, so I'm going to post it again.
Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican in a Democratic-dominated state Legislature, is the only state lawmaker to fail to shepherd a single piece of legislation into law in the last two years.
Not that he seems to mind [...]
"I came to the conclusion a long time ago that minority legislators have a choice," said McClintock, who has served for 22 years in Sacramento. "One is to tinker at the margins and win very minor victories on unimportant matters and the other is to try to drive the public policy debate on major issues, sacrificing legislative victories for broader policy victories."
I think America has had just about enough of obstructionist ideologues with no interest in governing. If the Brown campaign plays this right, McClintock is toast. This invalidates his entire candidacy. It doesn't surprise me that wingnuts are trying to wrap social issues around Brown's neck to try and distract from this. But at a fundamental level, Tom McClintock is telling the voters of CA-04 that he won't lift a finger in Congress for them. Since the Democrats will retain the majority, McClintock as a Congressman would be a press release machine without even trying to pass legislation. It's not his job, he thinks.
That is a death rattle for McClintock.
• AD-15: If Dianne Feinstein is popular anywhere, it's out in districts in the Central Valley like AD-15, and so her endorsement of Joan Buchanan is notable, also because she's a habitually lazy campaigner and doesn't do much for Democratic candidates historically. She's also endorsed Fran Florez in AD-30 and John Eisenhut in AD-26. This is the region where her endorsement can have the most effect.
• AD-36: Here's a good piece from Dick Price about Linda Jones, the longshot candidate out in this district in the Antelope Valley. She is a special ed. teacher in Palmdale and a board of Trustees member, looking to become the first Democrat to represent this area since 1974. She sounds good to me:
Indeed, after putting up token opposition in recent races and losing by landslide margins, Democrats have finally leveled the playing field, narrowing the difference between Republican and Democratic registration to just 1.6%, according to the Jones campaign. Earlier this year, the Antelope Valley Press reported that 74% of new voters were registering as Democrats, compared to just 4% as Republicans, with the remaining registering as "decline to states."
The region's dramatic growth has not come without costs.
"Jobs here are either in aerospace or retail, so often people have to go into Los Angeles for work," Jones says. "A third of the people are commuting downtown-that's hard on people, their families, their marriages, their pocketbooks, their health."
In Sacramento, Jones would work for a "Green Jobs" initiative, diversifying the Antelope Valley workforce, for example, by fostering much-needed solar and wind power industries that would create good-paying local jobs so fewer people would have to undertake the brutal commute downtown.
It would be incredible to win this seat.
• AD-10: The Sac Bee thinks that the race between Alyson Huber and Jack Sieglock will come down to turnout:
The game-changer for Alyson Huber or Jack Sieglock could be voter turnout to cast presidential ballots, said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, which handicaps legislative races.
"How they vote for Obama probably will be the most important factor," Hoffenblum said of 10th District residents, who tend to lean to the right - but by a dwindling margin.
The GOP's edge in registered voters has fallen the past four years from 6 percentage points to just 2, giving Democrats an outside chance of an Assembly upset if Obama's draw is decisively higher than McCain's, Hoffenblum said.
Well that's just devastating to Sieglock, because the excitement gap is much higher for Obama. Then again, he won't be doing a lot of GOTV in California, so Huber's going to need to run a strong operation of her own. The two candidates are even in fundraising, but Huber is getting major IE help.
• SD-19: The money is pouring into this race, as it's the only one contested on the Senate side. Tony Strickland has outraised Hannah-Beth Jackson by about $3 million to $2 million, but 53% of Strickland's take is from business PACs. Meanwhile, Strickland dropped an illegal mailer:
Tony Strickland has reached a new low in his dishonest campaign against Hannah-Beth Jackson. Yesterday, voters in the 19th District received a mailing from Strickland's campaign titled "Hannah-Beth Jackson's Economic Plan." Inside, the mailing contained Strickland's predictable false charges about Hannah-Beth Jackson and taxes.
The mailing was clearly designed to look like it was coming from Hannah-Beth Jackson's campaign.
Democratic and Republican sources have informed CMR that the GOP has pulled the plug on future ads for Assemblymember Greg Aghazarian's bid to replace termed out Democratic Senator Mike Machado in California's 5th Senate District. Aghazarian's Democratic opponent, Assemblymember Lois Wolk, is up around 20 points in internal polling, so Republicans have decided to cut their losses.
This means that there will be no more than 15 Republican Senators (and probably less) and no more than 32 Republican Assemblymembers (and probably a lot less). They will not pick up a single seat at the state level.
Unless you think they can still win in AD-30, where an intra-party feud has left drama queen Yacht Dog Democrat Nicole Parra to endorse the Republican in the race between Danny Gilmore and Democrat Fran Florez. Florez' response ad to Parra's endorsement is hilarious, check it out at the link.
The truth is that while AD-30 is competitive, it's not a likely pick-up. And the CRP had better get in the habit of cutting losses; a couple assembly seats are lost causes for them, too.
• CA-04: The most important debate evah is tonight! No, not that Biden-Palin thing, it's Calitics Match candidate Charlie Brown and Tom McClintock in Oroville. Meanwhile, the air war has begun in earnest. Brown is up with a 60-second ad featuring a local family as a third-party endorser, explaining their struggles to stay ahead in this economy and how Brown is the right choice. I think it'll play well (Brown has an American Jobs Plan which includes investments in infrastructure and green jobs, which is key to the needed reindustrialization of society). On the other hand, Tom McClintock has decided to use Grandpa Fred.
"The financial crisis our nation faces is complicated, and I don't think anybody's got all the answers," Thompson, a well-known actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee, says in the commercial. "But I'll tell you one thing. I'll feel a lot more confident with Tom McClintock working on it, rather than some amateur."
Shorter Grandpa Fred: "All this book-learnin' and financializin' is hard to figger. Pick the guy who's never voted Yes on a budget in his entire career."
• CA-11: If you want to know why Dean Andal isn't getting any traction in his race against Rep. Jerry McNerney, this quote says it all:
Elected in 2006, McNerney is in a better position for reelection than many expected. But he sits in a district that gave President Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, a sure sign that the freshman Democrat ought to be looking over his shoulder.
His Republican opponent, former state Assemblyman Dean Andal, may not be in a position to capitalize, though. The Lodi News-Sentinel reported that an Andal spokesman took the curious position that "it would be inappropriate of Andal to comment on the bailout bill, because he is not in office."
Yes, it would be terrible to actually give your viewpoints on national issues during a political campaign.
• CA-46: You know that Calitics Match candidate Debbie Cook is gaining traction in her race against nutjob Dana Rohrabacher by this - Rohrabacher has gone negative. He's sent an attack mailer that takes a Cook comment about gas prices out of context and really goes to great lengths to greenwash himself. He mentions his sponsorship of a bill to completely eliminate environmental review for solar projects, which is irresponsible but which he is trying to cynically use as proof of his green energy bona fides. It also calls Cook an extremist liberal who opposes drilling.
What's hysterical is that Rohrabacher sent the mailer to everyone in the district but Democrats, meaning that Greens got it. And I'm told by the Cook campaign that they received numerous calls from Green Party members saying that they were voting for Debbie BECAUSE of the mailer!
According to a September 25, 2008, Pasadena Weekly article by Carl Kozlowski, Rohrabacher believes that the Los Angeles Police Department has for 40 years hidden the fact that Sirhan Sirhan, the lone man convicted of shooting Kennedy, worked as part of a "real conspiracy" of Arabs [...]
In early 2007--39 years after the killing and right around the time that he blamed global warming on dinosaur flatulence, Rohrabacher decided to solve his murder mystery for "the Kennedy family."
Anyone familiar with Rohrabacher knows this story is now headed for unadulterated, wacky bliss.
At some point, Sirhan sent Summer Reese, one of his lawyers, a letter telling her that "a Diana was coming to see him."
Reese told Kozlowski, "Sirhan didn't know it was the congressman because his visitor was presented as a woman."
Rohrabacher. Undercover. In drag. Using the name Diana?
Perhaps this sheds light on why ex-Congressman Bob Dornan (R-Garden Grove) liked to call Rohrabacher "a fruitcake."
I actually know Carl, maybe I'll track him down and interview him about this.
• AD-26: I've noticed a lot of Republicans afraid to debate this year. Here's another example.
Stretching from Turlock to Stocton, the 26th Assembly District is fairly even in voter registration and is a target on both party's lists. So why would one candidate take a pass on a critical opportunity to face his opponent and make his case to voters? That is the question being asked by Democratic candidate John Eisenhut who was at a League of Women Voters debate in Modesto Friday night. His Republican opponent, Bill Berryhill, had a "scheduling conflict."
In a conversation with Eisenhut the night after the debate he said that Berryhill didn't want to debate him. This in spite of Berryhill being quoted by the Modesto Bee saying,
"People deserve some dialogue and to know where we both stand."
• AD-30: Fran Florez runs against Sacramento in this solid new ad. Is she also running against her own son, State Sen. Dean Florez?
• CA-11: Apparently trying to win some kind of award for the worst attack website in history, Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report (a terribly designed website in its own right) has put together One Term Is Enough, in all of its way-too-large masthead, ridiculously-spare with no action items or columns, design out of Quark X-Press glory. Man, that's ugly. And I think the focus on Jerry McNerney's earmarks, given the summer of scandal that Dean Andal has lived through which is entirely about a construction contract with a community college (if he was in Congress, that would be, basically, an earmark), is kind of silly. Meanwhile, McNerney is up with his first ad of the cycle, focusing on his work on behalf of troops and veterans.
• AD-80: As soyinkafan noted, Manuel Perez and Gary Jeandron had a debate where Jeandron stated his support for a tax increase in Imperial County. That's not likely to help him with the conservative base, but clearly Jeandron understands that he has to move to left if he has any chance to win this seat. The Palm Springs Desert Sun has a debate report here.
• SD-19: Tony Strickland's latest endorsement is Erin Brockovich, of all people. However, this could be less of a reach across the aisle as it appears.
Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt got Strickland's Democratic opponent Hannah-Beth Jackson on the phone, who said she was "a little surprised" by Brockovich backing her opponent.
While Brockovich says she is a Democrat in the ad, she writes on her blog that she's ready to leave the party and become an independent.
"I am ready to turn because both parties are acting foolish and judgmental and attacking," she writes.
She also has kind words for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
"I am proud to be a member of the same Strong Woman's Club that Sarah Palin is in." Brockovich writes.
• AD-15: As has been noted, Joan Buchanan released her first campaign ad of the cycle. Her opponent Abram Wilson responded with his own ad, also biographical in nature, and his campaign has questioned the Buchanan spot and her commitment to fiscal responsibility. I suppose signing a "no-tax" pledge is the height of responsibility, then.
• AD-30: We were all expecting it, and now Nicole Parra has officially endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore in the election to replace her. This is a family fight moved into the political sphere - the Parra-Florez feud is well-known.
Parra's support of Danny Gilmore angered Democratic Party leaders, but comes as no surprise because she has been praising Gilmore for months.
"I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials," Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival.
• LA Board of Supes: Turns out that not only is Bernard Parks turning to Republicans to help him get elected over progressive State Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas, but for ten years he was a member of the American Independent Party (!).
According to voter registration forms certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder:
Bernard Parks left the Democratic Party and registered as an American Independent on February 12, 1992 - just in time to miss the opportunity to vote for President Bill Clinton.
He registered again as an American Independent on August 9, 1996.
President George Bush was elected in November 2000 - but Parks still wouldn't become a Democrat for nearly a year and a half.
Parks was fired as Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department on April 9, 2002. Shortly thereafter, he began to prepare to run for Los Angeles City Council, and re-registered as a Democrat on May 30, 2002. Less than a year later, he was elected to the City Council.
That is very strange, especially for an African-American to sign up with a party which is the legacy of George Wallace.
Nicole Parra is about to make a huge mistake. On Friday, she told pretty much anybody who would listen that she puts her personal vendetta against the Florez family over the well-being of the state and its citizens. How? Well, she plans on endorsing Republican Danny Gilmore in Assembly District 30:
"I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials," Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival. (Fresno Bee 9/20/08)
Parra defeated Danny Gilmore by about 3% in 2006, and apparently she grew to be quite fond of the guy during their interactions. Either that or she can't put an election loss in the past in the past and endorse our candidate, Fran Florez for the district. Here's some background on the situation.
At this point, it's hard to imagine what else can be done to punish Nicole Parra. She's not even in the Capitol building anymore, after being told to pack her stuff and move across the street when she declined to vote for the Democratic budget. There's not much else that can really be taken from her. If she plans on switching parties, well, good luck finding a lobbying gig. And if she plans on running in another election, well, prey tell me which primary she could possibly win at this point.
Nicole: Think about this. Seriously, it's a bad idea.
Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Southern California, and summarize which races we need to win.
Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: http://calitics.com/showDiary....
Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.
Yesterday, when the Assembly mustered a simple majority but not a 2/3 vote for the Democratic budget plan, Yacht Dog Democrat Nicole Parra did not cast a vote. She has said that she would not vote for a budget unless it included a water bond for the November ballot.
In the latest episode of Capitol punishment, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass tossed Assemblywoman Nicole Parra from her office on Monday morning after the Central Valley Democrat failed to vote for the budget on Sunday.
In a twist, Parra hasn't been reassigned to more cramped quarters in the Capitol itself - but booted straight across the street to the Legislative Office Building. She will be the only member of the Legislature whose office is not housed in the Capitol.
"I knew going in Sunday that if I didn't support the budget, something was going to happen," Parra, D-Hanford, said in an interview shortly after receiving the news. The budget, now 49 days late, failed 45-30, with 54 votes needed for passage.
The state Assembly's chief administrative officer informed Parra of the change shortly before noon and gave her staff until late afternoon to clear out of the office, she said.
"Boxes have been delivered," said Parra, who added that she was unhappy she would be unable to pack her "personal stuff" because the Assembly was in session and she was on the floor.
Move her into Storage B for all I care. Parra, who has all but endorsed a Republican to succeed her in the 30th Assembly district when her term ends in November, is putting her own interests above the needs of the state. Water is obviously a crucial issue to the Central Valley but there are a variety of opinions on how to best deal with it. There are no other Democrats in the Central Valley intending to hijack the state budget. Parra, in short, is a selfish Yacht Dog who is comfortable with drawing attention to herself and being a media darling and uncomfortable with moving the state forward.
The quotes in the piece of Todd Spitzer coming to Parra's defense are fairly nauseating, too. Parra is done as a viable electoral prospect in the Democratic Party. And when Fran Florez wins in November, we'll at least have some leadership in the 30th Assembly district. In my mind, that'll be a pickup.
The California Target Book released its August "hot sheet" listing potential competitive seats throughout the state legislature. Well, two can play at this game. Here are the competitive seats as I see them and a little precis about them:
State Senate
1. SD-19. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) v. Tony Strickland (R). Sadly, thanks to Don Perata's bungling and undermining this is likely to be the only competitive race out of the 20 up for election in the state Senate. The good news is that it would be an absolute sea change to replace Tom McClintock with a true progressive like Hannah-Beth Jackson. With Ventura County's registration flipping to Democrats over the past year, Ronald Reagan country is no longer solidly red. Hannah-Beth has been actively courting voters at community events (there's a BBQ in honor of the "Gap" firefighters on Sunday) and she's wrapped up lots of endorsements. With this being the only competitive race, expect it to be costly, as both sides throw millions into capturing the seat. A win here would put us one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
