I did some precinct walking for Joan Buchanan in the 15th Assembly District before the election, and had several conversations with the current Assembly member. She's not really the most progressive, but what she does carry is an ability to actually look at the problems and review the situation on a policy basis.
Take the recent budget vote. She voted no, along with the entirety of the Republican caucus. However, her explanation actually reflected the reality of the situation and had a solid policy basis:
Buchanan insisted that Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Los Angeles, "did not tell me how to vote. There was no saying, 'This is how you should vote to protect yourself."
She said her main reason for not voting on the revenues was that she opposed the sales-tax increase, preferring instead "to focus on the highest income bracket, though that doesn't mean in the future I won't vote" for a sales-tax increase.
Buchanan said she would likely vote for a revenue bill once Schwarzenegger comes to agreement with Democrats to help start up delayed infrastructure projects, though she's "reluctantly OK" with sidestepping the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds majority on tax increases. (CoCo Times 12/30/08)
The thing about her district is that it is pretty darn wealthy. It contains wealthy enclaves in Alamo, Walnut Creek, and others. Of course, there is the flip side there, especially with the foreclosure disaster. And many of her constituents have seen the value of their houses fall in that mess. But yet, she still sees the value of a progressive taxing structure over a blanket sales tax.
Look, I certainly won't agree with Asm. Buchanan on everything, but you have to respect somebody that seemingly has a grasp of the policy issues. It would be nice if there were a few of those folks on the other side of the aisle.
I headed across the bay to San Ramon today to do some precinct walking for Joan Buchanan. I have nothing but respect for Joan, the kind of positive race that she has run, and her dedication to the community. While I don't share all of her positions, she speaks honestly of where she's coming from. And I respect that.
So, despite any rain that was falling, and boy, was that drive across the bridge nuts, I was out placing door hangers for Joan. Despite big houses with big private driveways, I ran up those suckers in the rain.
This campaign has done the hard work of contacting voters. They currently estimate over 70,000 voter contacts, which is awesome. They were able to do this with some great support, with over 250 volunteers knocking doors on Saturday, and over 200 on Sunday. And you need all of the voters in this district. It's one of the highest turnout in the state, with perhaps as high as 85% turnout this election. Over 83,000 absentee ballots have already been returned, and turnout might reach 250K. But Joan and the gang at her campaign have a handle on all of that. I'll get some more pictures up after the election. Now, it's time to go out again.
We have a great opportunity to ensure that California's vital services are protected in the budget. But that means working today and tomorrow. I want to thank everybody for the work that they have done, and the work that they will do. Oh, and thanks for Staying for Change!
• I'll remind you about this on Monday, but if you're looking for some election day activities in LA, how about this phonebank at USC?
• The Palo Alto Police Chief is in hot water after 'she instructed officers to stop African-Americans and "find out who they are."' Classy, but she meant something else entirely, I'm sure.
• On the national front, our "post-partisan" governor called Barack Obama "scrawny." Apparently he loved the whole girly-man blowback so much, he thought he'd give it another shot. For reals:
"We're going to make him do some squats, and then we're going to give him some bicep curls to beef up those scrawny little arms, but if you only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas," he said. "Sen. McCain on the other hand is built like a rock," Schwarzenegger joked.
Schwarzenegger questioned Obama's readiness to be president, noting that McCain "served this country longer in a POW camp than his opponent has served in the United States Senate," he said, as the crowd roared with approval. "Ladies and gentlemen, I only play an action hero in my movies, but John McCain is a real action hero." (LA Times10/31)
Yes, apparently the same cliches he's been using in California haven't gone out of style in Ohio yet.
As Brian hit earlier today, these are tough times for the California Yacht Party. There are competitive races in the state Legislature, in particular the Assembly, in over 30% of the seats currently held by Republicans. Democratic allies are obviously feeling excited about these races as well, as the independentexpenditures have jumped. Here's my list of the top races in order of likelihood of a flip:
ASSEMBLY:
1) AD-80. Manuel Perez (D) is poised for victory in this Palm Springs-area seat. The polls have shown double-digit leads. LIKELY DEM.
2) AD-78. Marty Block (D), the recipient of a lot of that largesse from the IE's, is not in an easy race with Republican John McCann (not McCain) by any stretch. The ads have been tough on both sides and the California Dental Association is unusually interested in knocking off Block. But it's a Democratic year and the top of the ticket should help him. LEAN DEM.
3) AD-15. The big news here is that Ed Chavez, the Republican mayor of Stockton, endorsed Joan Buchanan for this seat. Chavez is a moderate and a former Democrat, but an endorsement like this in one of the bigger cities in the district is helpful. Buchanan looks strong. LEAN DEM.
4) AD-10. Calitics Match candidate Alyson Huber has her very first ad on the air, attacking her opponent Jack Sieglock for being a "career politician." It's funny, too (although I think everyone has to stop with the I'm a Mac/I'm a PC parodies). The response from the Sieglock camp has been to call Huber a carpetbagger, but considering she's lived in the area and went to college there before transferring to Cornell, that hit doesn't make a lot of sense. Unions are spending big up here. I think this one goes late into Election Night. TOSS UP.
5) AD-26. Jack O'Connell just endorsed John Eisenhut, and the state Democratic Party obviously has some numbers it likes - they just poured $300,000 into the race. There's going to be a major flooding of the district with cash in the final week, and Eisenhut has a 5:1 cash-on-hand advantage. I really think this one is close, with Bill Berryhill slightly favored. SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.
6) AD-36. It really would be incredible to pull off this race. A Democrat has not represented Palmdale in this seat since 1974. But Linda Jones has a real chance to pull this off. Republican Steve Knight is an LAPD officer and he's still favored, but I'm hoping against hope. This is the tipping point race. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
7) AD-37. Ferial Masry's third try to unseat Audra Strickland (R) is getting a lot of residual help in this race from the hotly contested Senate contest in SD-19 between Tony Strickland. I don't see a lot of people voting for one Strickland and not the other, so it's even more helpful in this case. Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star thinks the race is tightening - he's seen Strickland release several mailers and the Democratic Party play a bit on Masry's behalf. Alberto Torrico and Karen Bass have been in the district. This is a sleeper. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
8) AD-02. The only reason this is up there is because the guy the Republicans put up may not live in the district.
A claim that Republican Assembly candidate Jim Nielsen doesn't live in the district in which he's running has apparently led the secretary of state's office to refer the case for prosecution.
Complainant Barry Clausen of Redding received a letter from the state office, dated Tuesday. The one-page notice says it has concluded its investigation against Nielsen and referred the case for prosecution to the state attorney general's office.
Going to the AG's office is pretty far down the road. Paul Singh might just back into this race. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
9) AD-59. Anthony Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle. But Bill Postmus' explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Donald Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile. This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
10) AD-66. There's still the idea that Grey Frandsen can steal this seat for the Democrats, and while it's unlikely against incumbent Kevin Jeffries, The local Inland Empire paper has kept an eye on this race. It's not out of the realm of possibility. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
AD-63 and AD-65 have potential as well, but this time I think they're SAFE.
SENATE:
1) SD-19. This is just an epic battle with loads of cash on both sides, mainly because it's the only seat worth playing in for the State Senate. The Ventura County Star endorsed Hannah-Beth Jackson over Tony Strickland, and she used some humor to mock Strickland's endless attack mailers. It's going to be a long night waiting for this one in Ventura and Santa Barbara County. TOSS-UP.
Neither campaign would release its polling numbers, but both acknowledged that the affluent, heavily Republican coastal district that has primed Rohrabacher for victories in excess of 20 points in every election for the last decade will not be quite as friendly to the GOP candidate this year.
General frustration with the Bush administration, which has overseen the rapid deterioration of the American economy, is one of the biggest factors in heralding the turnaround for Democrats, according to UCI political science professor Carole Uhlaner.
"Given the combination of a strong, well-known current official with good funding and the change in the national tide there's a chance that Rohrabacher could lose," Uhlaner said.
And our pal Todd Beeton of MyDD writes up the great event for Debbie I attended yesterday. But the pivotal moment of the campaign might be tomorrow at 11:15am. Dana Rohrabacher and Debbie Cook will debate for the only time in the campaign. We all know that when Crazy Dana opens his mouth, bad things happen for him. We've seen on a national level what can happen to candidates with loose lips and an extremist ideology - ask Michelle Bachmann. So we'll be monitoring the debate tomorrow.
• CA-03: For some reason, Bill Durston is taking very seriously the Sacramento Bee's endorsement of Dan Lungren. Through his outreach to supporters, the letters to the editor in the wake of the endorsement were entirely on Durston's side. I don't think these newspaper endorsements mean much, but it is something incumbents can use in their advertising, so it does have an impact. And frequently these local editorial boards are pushing a conservative agenda that is resistant to change.
Speaking of debates, Lungren and Durston also have one tomorrow. So there should be a lot of post-debate highlights to discuss.
• CA-04: I tend to think that this story, flagged by Dante over the weekend, is just devastating for Tom McClintock, so I'm going to post it again.
Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican in a Democratic-dominated state Legislature, is the only state lawmaker to fail to shepherd a single piece of legislation into law in the last two years.
Not that he seems to mind [...]
"I came to the conclusion a long time ago that minority legislators have a choice," said McClintock, who has served for 22 years in Sacramento. "One is to tinker at the margins and win very minor victories on unimportant matters and the other is to try to drive the public policy debate on major issues, sacrificing legislative victories for broader policy victories."
I think America has had just about enough of obstructionist ideologues with no interest in governing. If the Brown campaign plays this right, McClintock is toast. This invalidates his entire candidacy. It doesn't surprise me that wingnuts are trying to wrap social issues around Brown's neck to try and distract from this. But at a fundamental level, Tom McClintock is telling the voters of CA-04 that he won't lift a finger in Congress for them. Since the Democrats will retain the majority, McClintock as a Congressman would be a press release machine without even trying to pass legislation. It's not his job, he thinks.
That is a death rattle for McClintock.
• AD-15: If Dianne Feinstein is popular anywhere, it's out in districts in the Central Valley like AD-15, and so her endorsement of Joan Buchanan is notable, also because she's a habitually lazy campaigner and doesn't do much for Democratic candidates historically. She's also endorsed Fran Florez in AD-30 and John Eisenhut in AD-26. This is the region where her endorsement can have the most effect.
• AD-36: Here's a good piece from Dick Price about Linda Jones, the longshot candidate out in this district in the Antelope Valley. She is a special ed. teacher in Palmdale and a board of Trustees member, looking to become the first Democrat to represent this area since 1974. She sounds good to me:
Indeed, after putting up token opposition in recent races and losing by landslide margins, Democrats have finally leveled the playing field, narrowing the difference between Republican and Democratic registration to just 1.6%, according to the Jones campaign. Earlier this year, the Antelope Valley Press reported that 74% of new voters were registering as Democrats, compared to just 4% as Republicans, with the remaining registering as "decline to states."
The region's dramatic growth has not come without costs.
"Jobs here are either in aerospace or retail, so often people have to go into Los Angeles for work," Jones says. "A third of the people are commuting downtown-that's hard on people, their families, their marriages, their pocketbooks, their health."
In Sacramento, Jones would work for a "Green Jobs" initiative, diversifying the Antelope Valley workforce, for example, by fostering much-needed solar and wind power industries that would create good-paying local jobs so fewer people would have to undertake the brutal commute downtown.
It would be incredible to win this seat.
• AD-10: The Sac Bee thinks that the race between Alyson Huber and Jack Sieglock will come down to turnout:
The game-changer for Alyson Huber or Jack Sieglock could be voter turnout to cast presidential ballots, said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, which handicaps legislative races.
"How they vote for Obama probably will be the most important factor," Hoffenblum said of 10th District residents, who tend to lean to the right - but by a dwindling margin.
The GOP's edge in registered voters has fallen the past four years from 6 percentage points to just 2, giving Democrats an outside chance of an Assembly upset if Obama's draw is decisively higher than McCain's, Hoffenblum said.
Well that's just devastating to Sieglock, because the excitement gap is much higher for Obama. Then again, he won't be doing a lot of GOTV in California, so Huber's going to need to run a strong operation of her own. The two candidates are even in fundraising, but Huber is getting major IE help.
• SD-19: The money is pouring into this race, as it's the only one contested on the Senate side. Tony Strickland has outraised Hannah-Beth Jackson by about $3 million to $2 million, but 53% of Strickland's take is from business PACs. Meanwhile, Strickland dropped an illegal mailer:
Tony Strickland has reached a new low in his dishonest campaign against Hannah-Beth Jackson. Yesterday, voters in the 19th District received a mailing from Strickland's campaign titled "Hannah-Beth Jackson's Economic Plan." Inside, the mailing contained Strickland's predictable false charges about Hannah-Beth Jackson and taxes.
The mailing was clearly designed to look like it was coming from Hannah-Beth Jackson's campaign.
There are two arguments against Prop. 11. One is that in 60% of the regions of the state, no amount of gerrymandering is going to create a competitive seat (and that's all this redistricting measure would accomplish - gerrymandering under another name). I live in Santa Monica. I have yet to get a legitimate answer about how to incorporate my 70-80% Democratic city into a contiguous region and make it competitive. You go South and there's Venice and the South Bay, and by the time you get to a Republican pocket the district is too large to include them. You go north and there's Malibu and the Palisades and blue cities up the coast. You go east and there's Los Angeles, with liberals everywhere. You go west and you're in the ocean.
The other argument is that the other 40% of the state actually has the potential for competition, and the district boundaries are indeed not constrictive. Demography is destiny but it is not static. People die, people are born, people achieve voting age. People move into cities, others move out. This demographic shift has been occurring for a while now, with the eastern counties moving back to the Democrats, and it's reaching a critical mass in 2008.
Until recently I considered the drive for a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and the Senate to be a two-year project, culminating with a new Democratic governor in 2010. That is still true in the Senate, thanks to Don Perata's bungling of races in SD-12 and SD-15. Honestly, he should be indicted for his failed leadership, forget the corruption. But in the Assembly, we absolutely have the chance to get a 2/3 majority, and everyone is starting to recognize that.
SACRAMENTO - The sliding economy and other factors are giving a lift to Democrats in key legislative races that are coming down to the wire, according to consultants working with those races.
In polls that ask whether likely voters would vote for a generic Democrat or Republican in five state Assembly districts with open seats, Democrats get the nod in all five.
What's more, in two seats held by Republicans - Assembly Districts 38 and 63 - a generic Democrat vs. Republican race is a dead heat, according to the consultants, who hosted a background briefing for reporters Tuesday.
That would be seven races, and six seats are needed for 2/3.
This has been increasingly clear over the past several months. Manuel Perez has been pulling away in his race in AD-80 against Gary Jeandron with his transformative message of social and economic justice. Marty Block has been outspending his opponent John McCann in AD-78 by over 8:1 in TV advertising, although McCann is benefiting from IEs, including, bizarrely enough, the California Dental Association. Between those two plurality-Democratic seats, and the competitive race in AD-15 with Joan Buchanan, 3 seats looked like a good haul.
The Antelope Valley, the vast open land between Los Angeles and San Bernadino counties typically isn't very hospitable territory for Democrats for the legislature. It's the home of the hard-right couple of George and Sharon Runners, who, between them, have occupied the 36th district Assembly seat for more than a decade. No Democrat has held the seat since 1974.
This year, things might be a little different. Democrats have nearly evened the registration gap, down to just a two percent GOP advantage compared to eight points just two years ago.
Enter Linda Jones, a Westside Union School District trustee and a Vice president of the Antelope Valley School Boards Association, who is making a hard run for the seat. She is taking on Palmdale City Council member Steve Knight, a former LA police officer.
Jones is no sacrificial lamb. She's been running full throttle for months, backed by labor, educators, and African-American groups. Knight, a former LA police officer, is a cookie-cutter Republican running on illegal immigration, a no tax pledge, and a strong opponent of gun control.
We can win that race. Eric Bauman tipped me off to it three months ago.
AD-37, with Ferial Masry running against Audra Strickland, is winnable too, especially if she gets a draft off of Hannah-Beth Jackson's overlapping State Senate race. And AD-63 is even on a generic ballot, according to Democratic consultants. And AD-66 could be a surprise on election night, thanks to a strong candidate in Grey Frandsen, a former employee of Russ Feingold. If you add that up, you're talking about 9 of the 32 Assembly seats held by Republicans in play, over 30%. So does that sound like gerrymandering to you? A progressive wave makes redistricting talk look ridiculous.
Alberto Torrico is giving the soft sell, but this is a great opportunity. It's a wave election, and every new voter that Obama turns out in California is a likely candidate to vote the Democratic ticket. Every new voter registered by a Congressional candidate might vote for a Democrat in the Senate and Assembly. And it's not as easy for Republicans to play defense in such an environment. They have the dismal national economic picture and the state budget crisis to contend with, and they're out of money.
If there was no excuse yesterday, there's REALLY no excuse now. This is the time. If the laws of the state government are designed to prevent change, if they force us to meet "unreachable" goals, then we reach them.
Swing State Project, a Democratic-leaning online blog covering election races nationwide, recently identified three California Assembly races to watch - all involving portions of San Joaquin County - and calling them all toss-ups at this point.
In AD-10 they site the near equal registration numbers – a 2.04% difference, advantage Republicans – that have close from 6% since the 2006 primary election. The difference was only 1.97% in May but odd numbers from San Joaquin County skewed the 60-day report.
In AD-15 nothing is certain, but it looks like Joan Buchanan should come out on top. Still, this is one to watch and could be close.
In AD-26 there is a 1% Democratic advantage and the election should be a close one for John Eisenhut. The Republicans have a strong candidate with a known family name — Berryhill.
Each of these districts share something in common. All three include a portion of San Joaquin County. Why is this important? In spite of the rapid rise in Democratic registration throughout California, San Joaquin is the only county in any of these districts to experienced a drop in registration. As a matter of fact, about 4,000 voters, 3,700 of them Democratic, have dropped off the San Joaquin rolls since May, 2008.
Comparing reports on the Secretary of State's Website, it was found that Republicans managed to increase registrations in San Joaquin County between May and September adding about 1,800 new voters. Over the same period, Democrats lost nearly 3,700, very close to the 4,000 total decrease county wide. Something doesn't smell right, and it isn't rotting fish in a drying delta.
With reports of "slamming" coming out of San Bernardino County, the CDP needs to get on this quickly. CA Democratic Party Region 7 Directory Gary Robbins and San Joaquin Co. Central Committee Chair Richard Blackston have already been informed, and San Joaquin should be added to the already started investigation.
• CA-11: Apparently trying to win some kind of award for the worst attack website in history, Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report (a terribly designed website in its own right) has put together One Term Is Enough, in all of its way-too-large masthead, ridiculously-spare with no action items or columns, design out of Quark X-Press glory. Man, that's ugly. And I think the focus on Jerry McNerney's earmarks, given the summer of scandal that Dean Andal has lived through which is entirely about a construction contract with a community college (if he was in Congress, that would be, basically, an earmark), is kind of silly. Meanwhile, McNerney is up with his first ad of the cycle, focusing on his work on behalf of troops and veterans.
• AD-80: As soyinkafan noted, Manuel Perez and Gary Jeandron had a debate where Jeandron stated his support for a tax increase in Imperial County. That's not likely to help him with the conservative base, but clearly Jeandron understands that he has to move to left if he has any chance to win this seat. The Palm Springs Desert Sun has a debate report here.
• SD-19: Tony Strickland's latest endorsement is Erin Brockovich, of all people. However, this could be less of a reach across the aisle as it appears.
Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt got Strickland's Democratic opponent Hannah-Beth Jackson on the phone, who said she was "a little surprised" by Brockovich backing her opponent.
While Brockovich says she is a Democrat in the ad, she writes on her blog that she's ready to leave the party and become an independent.
"I am ready to turn because both parties are acting foolish and judgmental and attacking," she writes.
She also has kind words for GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
"I am proud to be a member of the same Strong Woman's Club that Sarah Palin is in." Brockovich writes.
• AD-15: As has been noted, Joan Buchanan released her first campaign ad of the cycle. Her opponent Abram Wilson responded with his own ad, also biographical in nature, and his campaign has questioned the Buchanan spot and her commitment to fiscal responsibility. I suppose signing a "no-tax" pledge is the height of responsibility, then.
• AD-30: We were all expecting it, and now Nicole Parra has officially endorsed Republican Danny Gilmore in the election to replace her. This is a family fight moved into the political sphere - the Parra-Florez feud is well-known.
Parra's support of Danny Gilmore angered Democratic Party leaders, but comes as no surprise because she has been praising Gilmore for months.
"I will endorse Danny Gilmore in the near future and I will campaign for him and do commercials," Parra said in an interview. Gilmore, a retired California Highway Patrol officer from Hanford, is running against Democrat Fran Florez, mother of state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, a longtime Parra rival.
• LA Board of Supes: Turns out that not only is Bernard Parks turning to Republicans to help him get elected over progressive State Sen. Mark Ridley-Thomas, but for ten years he was a member of the American Independent Party (!).
According to voter registration forms certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder:
Bernard Parks left the Democratic Party and registered as an American Independent on February 12, 1992 - just in time to miss the opportunity to vote for President Bill Clinton.
He registered again as an American Independent on August 9, 1996.
President George Bush was elected in November 2000 - but Parks still wouldn't become a Democrat for nearly a year and a half.
Parks was fired as Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department on April 9, 2002. Shortly thereafter, he began to prepare to run for Los Angeles City Council, and re-registered as a Democrat on May 30, 2002. Less than a year later, he was elected to the City Council.
That is very strange, especially for an African-American to sign up with a party which is the legacy of George Wallace.
I was at a Joan Buchanan fundraiser the other day that featured the Speaker (who was great, as usual) and other local elected Dems. One thing that a couple of them mentioned was the fact that we now have a registration edge over the GOP in AD-15.
Since I'm a huge nerd, I decided to take a look at the numbers and ended up putting together a little chart (all numbers from the SoS website). One thing that struck me is that Democratic registration (as a percentage) has been increasing very slowly; the small advantage this cycle is more due to Republican registration shrinking. I also noticed that the margin of victory seems to have stayed fairly constant over the last three cycles - even during the presidential race, where Kerry won the district by a narrow margin.
Obviously the fact that Houston was an incumbent was a factor, as well as the fact that (as far as I know), the previous three candidates didn't have the same experience in elected office or fundraising potential as Joan Buchanan. Just curious as to what people think and whether I'm reading too much into this.
Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Southern California, and summarize which races we need to win.
Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: http://calitics.com/showDiary....
Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.
The California Target Book released its August "hot sheet" listing potential competitive seats throughout the state legislature. Well, two can play at this game. Here are the competitive seats as I see them and a little precis about them:
State Senate
1. SD-19. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) v. Tony Strickland (R). Sadly, thanks to Don Perata's bungling and undermining this is likely to be the only competitive race out of the 20 up for election in the state Senate. The good news is that it would be an absolute sea change to replace Tom McClintock with a true progressive like Hannah-Beth Jackson. With Ventura County's registration flipping to Democrats over the past year, Ronald Reagan country is no longer solidly red. Hannah-Beth has been actively courting voters at community events (there's a BBQ in honor of the "Gap" firefighters on Sunday) and she's wrapped up lots of endorsements. With this being the only competitive race, expect it to be costly, as both sides throw millions into capturing the seat. A win here would put us one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
This year's June primary was one of the most exciting Democratic Party races in recent memory. Despite record-low turnout, every crucial Bay Area race was decided in favor of an experienced, progressive Democrat. With our help, they will lead our state and our country to a landslide victory this November.
For many in the East Bay, AD 14 was the race to watch. A little background: I am proud to have been one of Councilman Thurmond's early supporters. Tony is a real hero to me, and he ran a solid race. He received the endorsements of every newspaper in the district, but given the role of mail-in ballots and unprecedented low turnout, they came too late to make much of a difference. But I sincerely thank him for running, as well as all of you that worked to help get him elected. I hope we'll be seeing more of Tony Thurmond in the future.
Our future Assemblywoman from the 14th, Nancy Skinner, received over 51% of the vote, a truly remarkable feat in a four-way race. As anyone who has met her can attest, she is an incredibly sharp woman with a real grasp on the issues facing California. In particular, she has years of experience on environmental issues that are close to the hearts of East Bay voters. Once again, our district will have another true progressive representing us in Sacramento. I am sure Nancy Skinner will make all of us proud here in the 14th AD.
The East Bay Young Dems are hosting Speed Candidating right now, and they are streaming it live. They have the candidates for AD14, AD15 and SD09. Here's the video:
As reported by Randy Bayne, Steve Filson is dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination in AD-15. From Filson's website:
Dear Friends and Supporters:
It is with great regret, that we are suspending our campaign for the California State Assembly. There are a constellation of reasons both personal and political that I have reached a point to make a tough choice.
I want to thank everyone who has been with us. You understood the importance of winning this seat and converting it to a Democratic one. I still think that is possible and very important but having two strong opponents in a Primary brings more harm than good. Therefore it is best if we help clear the field so that our Democratic contender is ready for the general election which will be very tough.
For those many folks who donated their time, I can't thank you enough.
For the time being I will be analyzing my next steps. For the many great new friends I have met during this campaign, I'm sure we will cross paths again. Again, I thank everyone for their support.
I am firmly committed to getting a 2/3 majority in both houses of the state Legislature by 2010. Fabian Nuñez believes that, in the Assembly, we can get halfway there by November.
Speaking at the Sacramento Press Club yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez said Democrats should add three seats to their 48-32 majority in the California Assembly in November's elections.
Nunez made the prediction after new figures from the Secretary of State show a surge in Democratic registrations in all but two Assembly districts, including three held by incumbent Republicans who will be forced to leave office.
They include the desert/Riverside area seat held by Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia, the San Diego seat of Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, and the Contra Costa/Sacramento Delta seat held by Assemblyman Guy Houston.
These are clearly the three seats to target. AD-80 (Garcia's seat) has some excellent candidates on the Democratic side, including Greg Pettis and the Hispanic Barack Obama, Manuel Perez. We have good candidates in AD-78 (Horton's old seat) and AD-15 (Houston's) as well - as those Caliticians in those districts can attest. Plus, we not only have registration advantages, but the advantage of a game-changing Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket (whether it's Obama or Clinton) that will bring new Democratic voters to the process. These three seats are prime opportunities, and there are other Assembly opportunities like Greg Aghazarian's seat (he's also termed out), and more in the Senate (Hannah Beth Jackson's bid in SD-19, the possible Jeff Denham recall, Abel Maldonado's SD-15).
However, I want to highlight this nugget about the way Assembly and Senate elections are managed in California.
If Democrats field strong candidates for these seats, we could be looking at a pickup of 2/3+ seats.
Each of the marquee races are expected to be $1 million+ contests. The new Assembly Speaker will be responsible for raising funds and overseeing the campaigns.
(Righting a bit of a wrong here. This should have been frontpaged when it first appeared; not everything is or should be about the day-to-day slugfest. - promoted by jsw)
For lack of a nail, the shoe was lost;
for lack of a shoe, the horse was lost;
for lack of a horse, the rider was lost;
for lack of a rider, the message was lost;
for lack of a message, the battle was lost;
for lack of a battle, the war was lost;
for lack of a war, the kingdom was lost.
Northern California Democrats have been hearing a lot lately about how the CDP is targeting two of our most important races, CA-11 and AD-15. Both of these districts have historically elected Republicans, with CA-11 holding a 5.5% Republican registration advantage and AD-15 recently dwindling to a 2% Republican advantage. Now that the AD-15 seat is turning over due to term limits, the CDP is hoping to pick up a new Democratic Assembly seat while protecting the sole Congressional gain that California Democrats made in 2006.
Unfortunately, the Democratic definition of "targeting" seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to catnapping. Take, for example, the City of San Ramon elections for mayor and City Council that were scheduled for this November.
As is true in most locales, San Ramon's city offices are considered non-partisan. Yet in San Ramon, the mayor and the entire City Council are all Republicans, despite the fact that city-wide Democratic registration stands at 9,988 compared to 10,589 Republicans, with a pool of 6,033 DTS voters.
So exactly what happened to San Ramon's November 2007 election? Well, there's not going to be an election. That's because when the August 10 filing deadline rolled around, nobody had filed to run for mayor against the Republican incumbent; nobody had filed to run for City Council against the Republican incumbents. With nobody challenging them at the polls, the three incumbents were appointed to new terms on August 20.
(This man could be the GOP nominee in CA-11 - promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Guy Houston, AD-15 Assemblyman and potential CA-11 McNerney challenger, saw his chances of challenging McNerney go down the toilet today when Alameda County Superior Court Judge Winifred Smith allowed a civil fraud suit to proceed against Houston for defrauding senior citizens out of $340,000. See the extended
Seems like it's about time for Ellen Tauscher to check herself into Interfering Politician Rehab. You might have thought that after last year's Steve Filson debacle in the CA-11 primary, she'd have gotten the message that Democratic voters are perfectly capable of choosing their own candidates. But nooooo, the woman is out of control.
With Guy Houston being termed out of his AD-15 seat, there are presently five Democrats vying to replace him:
retired airline pilot Steve Filson
electrician Steve Thomas
retired entrepreneur Fred Klaske
small businessman Davies Ononiwu and
high school principal Chris Van Schaack
So you might look at this group and ask yourself, "Exactly what's missing from the mix; what more do we need?" And the answer would be — why, it's the Ellen Tauscher Seal of Approval™. Apparently, Filson has fallen out of favor; I'm guessing that Tauscher feels like he let her down in CA-11, rather than the more obvious alternative: that, just maybe, Democratic voters resent Tauscher's interference in their elections.
So meet the new, sixth candidate in AD-15, Joan Buchanan. A 17-year member of the school board in San Ramon and generous contributor to Tauscher's past campaigns, Buchanan appears poised to catapult to front-runner status based on her powerful political connections to Friends of Ellen and her prodigious fundraising potential. Sound eerily familiar?
What is Tauscher thinking? Isn't there anybody who can stop her before she hurts someone? K-Fed? Anyone?
Unfortunately, the Democratic definition of "targeting" seems to bear an uncanny resemblance to catnapping. Take, for example, the City of San Ramon elections for mayor and City Council that were scheduled for this November. 
Seems like it's about time for Ellen Tauscher to check herself into Interfering Politician Rehab. You might have thought that after last year's Steve Filson debacle in the CA-11 primary, she'd have gotten the message that Democratic voters are perfectly capable of choosing their own candidates. But nooooo, the woman is out of control.