Tuesday's Daily Roundup by the Capitol Weekly reports on a new poll which shows a closely divided electorate on the question of whether marriage equality should be allowed in California:
"Voters in California are sharply divided on same-sex marriage, and an amendment to overturn Prop. 8 would depend largely on campaigning and voter turnout, according to a Field Poll to be released today," writes the Chron's Leslie Fulbright.
"The poll of 761 registered voters shows 48 percent in favor of a constitutional amendment to allow same-sex marriages, with 47 percent opposing and 5 percent undecided.
"The California Supreme Court is currently considering challenges to Prop. 8, the initiative passed by voters in November that banned same-sex marriage. Proponents say that if the court doesn't side with them, they will work on a measure to overturn the ban."
Though views on same-sex marriage vary greatly according to age, geography, political party and religious preference, the numbers overall are almost equally split."'
Opinions haven't changed much since November,' said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo of the election where 52 percent of voters approved Prop. 8. 'The closeness of the divide suggests it would depend on the quality of the campaigning and voter turnout.'" Dan Walters reads the poll and writes: "It could be argued that gay rights groups had their best shot in 2008 as they sought to defeat Proposition 8 and allow an earlier Supreme Court decision, validating same-sex marriage, to stand. It was an extremely high-turnout presidential election in which Democrats dominated from the White House down."
It's likely that 2010's voter turnout will be millions of voters smaller and somewhat less liberal than the 2008 electorate, although it's not certain yet whether a pro-gay marriage measure would be on the June primary ballot, whose turnout would be even lower, or on the November general election ballot."
If the Supreme Court were to uphold Proposition 8 and gay rights groups were to seek a 2010 measure, only to lose again, their cause could be stalled for many years."
So, what do you think? If the California Supreme Court does not overturn Proposition 8, should we try and repeal it in 2010 or 2012? MadProfessah votes for going forward on November 2010. I seriously question Dan Walters' views on this topic since he has been so wrong before.
There are some other interesting facts in the crosstabs of the poll:
According to the poll, Democrats favor same-sex marriage by 63 percent and 32 percent oppose. Republicans are 70 percent opposed and 24 percent in favor. In the San Francisco Bay Area, those polled are 64 percent in favor and 31 percent opposed. In Los Angeles County, 55 percent favor and 40 percent oppose. Voters aged 18 to 39 favor gay marriage by 55 percent while those 65 or older are 58 percent opposed, according to the poll.
Here is my analysis of the 2008 election in my home state of California. As I mentioned in my 50-state analysis, California was a mixed bag on November 4, 2008. The presidential results were anything but disappointing, while we came up short further down the ballot, from the House races to the state legislature and the 12 ballot measures.
I was amazed as I saw polls leading up to Election Day showing Obama up by more than 20 over McCain, and was astonished at the 61-37 Obama blowout that ended up occurring on Election Night (and the calling of the whole Left Coast for Obama, putting him over 270 electoral votes and making him the winner!). I couldn't wait to check out the county results and see which ones flipped for Obama and which ones were close.
As the final absentee ballots rolled in, I was able to check out the numbers, and see that Obama way outperformed Kerry, winning by 3 million votes and pumping up his national popular vote numbers very nicely. In fact, Obama outperformed every single Democratic presidential candidate except one, scoring the second-best Democratic presidential performance in California's history after Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. As you can see, Obama gained 1.5 million votes over Kerry, while McCain, who claimed he could compete in California, lost half a million votes from Bush.
2008: Obama 8,274,473; McCain 5,011,781
2004: Kerry 6,745,485; Bush 5,509,826
Looking through the voting histories of the California counties that went to Obama, I found that Obama broke some longtime Republican streaks in quite a few counties. Obama won a majority of the vote in two counties that last voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% of the vote in 1976, Merced and Trinity.
Most significant are the six counties that in 2008 voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% for the first time since 1964: Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Ventura
And finally, San Diego County, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate with a majority of the vote in 1944, also delivered a majority of the vote to Obama!
Obama also came close to winning majorities, instead winning close pluralities, in Butte, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. The last Democrat to win a majority in Butte and Fresno was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and the last Democrat to win a majority in Stanislaus was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Now I will do a tour of the state, north to south. I will give a bit of an overall summary of California's counties: Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in all 58 of them. The amount of improvement varies from region to region, and the numbers are over the flip.
Nota Bene: This is an open letter to Charlie Brown, Democratic candidate for CA-04's open seat. I have notified the Brown campaign of this diary by email. It is also crossposted at Daily Kos.
***
Dear Charlie,
I supported you in your race against John Doolittle back in 2006. This year I would like to support you again in your open seat race against Tom McClintock. While I would never under any circumstances vote for Tom McClintock, as things stand right now I cannot in good conscience vote for you. I do not currently intend to cast a vote in the CA-04 House race.
Almost one year ago I decided to write to you because I wanted assurance from you on a matter that became very important to me after the 2006 elections. After a few brief formalities, I wrote the following:
Dr. Bill Durston (a Combat Vietnam Veteran and Emergency Room Doctor) is the Progressive Democratic candidate for the California 3rd Congressional District.
Dr. Bill Durston is running as the Democratic candidate for House of Representatives in California's 3rd Congressional District to give voters a choice for change.
Bill is running against an incumbent career politician who is in virtual lock-step with the Bush Administration. Dr. Bill Durston stands in marked contrast as a challenger with combat-tested courage(PDF File), unquestionable integrity, proven leadership, and a vision for a better future.
Bill Durston has just released a two-part campaign ads as part of valiant effort to help us achieve the goals of electing MORE and BETTER Democrats. I urge you to please SUPPORT BILL DURSTON FOR CONGRESS.
Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Southern California, and summarize which races we need to win.
Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: http://calitics.com/showDiary....
Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.
As always, good stuff
Here is my analysis of this fall's elections in California, broken up into 3 parts. Part 1 will cover the presidential race and the ballot measures, and the other two will be on the Congressional and State Legislature races; Part 2 Northern/Central California and Part 3 Southern California.
Sacramento, California - September 11, 2008 - Grammy Award winning native American flutist, Mary Youngblood, will be performing and Dr. Bill Durston will be speaking at a special Durston for Congress gathering on Thursday, September 11, from 7-9 PM at the home of Bill and Nancy Myers, 10300 Sheldon Road, in Elk Grove.
Media representatives and all members of the public who are concerned about the "war on terror" are invited. Refreshments will be served. The event will be held outdoors, so bring a folding chair or blanket to sit on. Call Bill or Nancy Myers at 916-689-6943 to RSVP.
Dr. Bill Durston is the Democratic candidate for Congress in California's 3rd Congressional District. Dr. Durston is a decorated Marine Vietnam combat veteran and an emergency physician. For more information about the Durston for Congress campaign, call 916-622-VOTE (8683) or go to the Durston for Congress website.
Dr. Bill Durston's complete Special Comment on today's sobering anniversary is below the fold:
Because they say Charity begins at home and all politics are local, I have volunteered to serve as the Internet Outreach Co-ordinator for California 3rd Congressional District's Democratic Candidate - Dr. Bill Durston - for the rest of this electoral cycle.
The 33rd District has a chance to elect a great new leader in the State Senate this year. With the problems that face our district and state, new common-sense leadership is desperately needed. Gary Prithchard is an educator, and a respected member of the community. He offers a new vision, and will fight to represent the 33rd district and insure that our voices will be heard.
Warning: If you intend to click on the link to Calvert's site you might want to start the shower.
Are you afraid? You should be. But brace yourself - Dick Cheney is coming to do a high-dollar fundraiser for Calvert today in San Clemente. There will be a protest but I have no word of a citizen arrest.
I have been looking over the candidates for District 3 Supervisor and, at this point, I am leaning toward supporting Lynn Jefferson as my first choice. Joe Alioto is no option, Wilma Pang is out to lunch, Claudine Cheng seems too closely tied to the Downtown developers and I have serious doubts about David Chiu's readiness (nothing related to the unfortunate swiftboating). From what I have read and heard thus far, Jefferson seems like someone with the right balance. "Moderate" seems to be a nasty word in the City, but thre is a differnce between moderation and Carmen Chiu's reactionary voting record.
This past Thursday evening, nearly 100 Democratic activists got together to kick off the Yolo County Democratic Central Committee's 2008 Campaign - Yolo United! With the primary season over, we are now uniting to make sure that all of our energy is focused on getting Democrats elected to every seat that represents Yolo County.
We were fortunate to have three of Yolo County's delegates to the Democratic Convention with us, all of them ready to join together to make sure that we elect Democrats to every local, state, and Federal position on the ballot.
Don Gibson (Clinton delegate), Martha Beetley (Obama delegate), and Ryan Loney (Obama delegate) will be representing us in Denver in August.
Join me below the fold to learn more about the Yolo United Campaign.
Note: I am a volunteer with the Yolo United Campaign.
As of tonight, it looks like it is indeed a two-way race for the State Seanate District 3. A new Survey USA poll gives Mark Leno a strong lead over with Joe Nation and Carole Migden tied for a distant second place.
From the beginning, this campaign has been about the netroots taking the next step to becoming the mainstream. You've been fantastic, but we need more if we are to win the primary. If we implement the plan below we will win and set the stage to win in November. We need to make a lot of noise and talk to a lot of people. Not enough people know about us and even fewer understand why we are doing this.
Without the money, there is no campaign - so I'm not going to beat around the bush. We need money; we need it now. We need your help. If you believe in candidates emerging from the netroots, like I know you do, then please contribute.
Click on this button to go to ActBlue.
Jump below for a story and some details on how your money will be spent.
Last week I learned that Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer was hosting a Thrusday fundraiser for Carole Migden along the Embarcadero. It was a cheap event and, though I am a Leno supporter, decided to drop a little spare change and check it out. It was a small room that was pretty packed. Betty Yee was the most prominent official there. But what struck me was that Migden knows how towork a room when her mood is on an even keel. She was even quite funny and actually had me questionning the rationale for change. Then I read the events at the State Convention and remember why. She really is Jekyle and Hyde.
That's right, I'm a candidate's wife, it happened rather quickly too. Well, I've been married to the guy for almost ten years, but the candidate part has unfolded in just a few days.
Now, why am I not the candidate? Oh, it's a long story and I've not been as good of a Democrat as my husband has been, really. I am still registered as Decline to State. Yes, how is that for a confession? But Gary, my husband, has been registered as a Democrat for many years and he unabashedly calls himself a party loyalist.
If you had a microphone and a media pass at the U.S. Capitol, what would you ask your lawmaker? What issues matter most to you during this election? The economy? Healthcare? Immigration, global warming, Iraq? Now's your chance to make your voice heard in the corridors of power and on 200+ public radio stations across the U.S.
It looks like Carmen Chu has decided to take on the punishment that involves running for Supervisor in the 4th District, often called the "Sunset seat".
