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With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-04 | Sam Aanestad | 33.07% | 44.12% | R+11.05 | M+12.80 |
| SD-12 | Jeff Denham | 47.46% | 33.14% | D+14.32 | O+17.64 |
| SD-18 | Roy Ashburn | 31.93% | 47.63% | R+15.70 | M+15.00 |
| SD-36 | Dennis Hollingsworth | 28.96% | 46.07% | R+17.11 | M+14.16 |
Democrats (5)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| SD-16 | Dean Florez | 49.67% | 33.14% | D+16.53 | O+21.35 |
| SD-22 | Gilbert Cedillo | 58.98% | 14.77% | D+44.21 | O+58.53 |
| SD-24 | Gloria Romero | 53.62% | 21.16% | D+32.46 | O+41.34 |
| SD-34 | Lou Correa | 42.68% | 34.05% | D+8.63 | O+16.81 |
| SD-40 | Denise Ducheny | 46.50% | 29.66% | D+15.84 | O+26.64 |
Assembly numbers are over the flip... |
| ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-03 | Dan Logue | 34.83% | 40.20% | R+5.37 | M+1.60 |
| AD-05 | Roger Niello | 37.94% | 38.83% | R+0.89 | O+4.24 |
| AD-25 | Tom Berryhill | 36.84% | 42.32% | R+5.48 | M+7.90 |
| AD-26 | Bill Berryhill | 42.03% | 39.27% | D+2.76 | O+4.11 |
| AD-30 | Danny Gilmore | 46.45% | 36.56% | D+9.89 | O+4.39 |
| AD-33 | Sam Blakeslee | 35.86% | 40.69% | R+4.83 | O+1.39 |
| AD-36 | Steve Knight | 39.55% | 38.72% | D+0.83 | O+0.66 |
| AD-37 | Audra Strickland | 35.84% | 41.46% | R+5.62 | O+3.73 |
| AD-38 | Cameron Smyth | 36.84% | 40.05% | R+3.21 | O+4.86 |
| AD-63 | Bill Emmerson | 37.85% | 40.44% | R+2.59 | O+4.09 |
| AD-64 | Brian Nestande | 36.26% | 41.61% | R+5.35 | O+1.79 |
| AD-65 | Paul Cook | 37.14% | 41.06% | R+3.92 | M+4.12 |
| AD-68 | Van Tran | 32.72% | 41.61% | R+8.89 | M+2.95 |
| AD-70 | Chuck DeVore | 30.12% | 43.73% | R+13.61 | O+3.93 |
| AD-74 | Martin Garrick | 30.88% | 41.62% | R+10.74 | O+2.16 |
| AD-75 | Nathan Fletcher | 30.74% | 39.81% | R+9.07 | O+4.05 |
Democrats (15)
| District | Incumbent | DEM | GOP | Margin | 2008 Result |
|---|
| AD-07 | Noreen Evans | 52.84% | 23.73% | D+29.11 | O+43.31 |
| AD-09 | Dave Jones | 56.63% | 18.74% | D+37.89 | O+49.15 |
| AD-10 | Alyson Huber | 39.32% | 39.43% | R+0.11 | O+3.91 |
| AD-11 | Tom Torlakson | 54.24% | 22.10% | D+32.14 | O+40.90 |
| AD-15 | Joan Buchanan | 40.59% | 36.14% | D+4.45 | O+16.55 |
| AD-20 | Alberto Torrico | 48.62% | 20.19% | D+18.43 | O+42.28 |
| AD-21 | Ira Ruskin | 47.13% | 26.81% | D+20.32 | O+45.90 |
| AD-23 | Joe Coto | 51.36% | 18.97% | D+32.39 | O+44.45 |
| AD-31 | Juan Arambula | 49.04% | 33.92% | D+15.12 | O+24.81 |
| AD-35 | Pedro Nava | 48.21% | 27.95% | D+20.26 | O+35.46 |
| AD-47 | Karen Bass | 64.95% | 11.28% | D+53.67 | O+71.90 |
| AD-50 | Hector De La Torre | 61.91% | 16.23% | D+45.68 | O+55.86 |
| AD-76 | Lori Saldaña | 41.92% | 26.76% | D+15.16 | O+34.34 |
| AD-78 | Martin Block | 43.01% | 31.51% | D+11.50 | O+11.82 |
| AD-80 | Manuel Perez | 45.25% | 36.62% | D+8.63 | O+20.68 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)
(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68 |
