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Two-Thirds Watch: Bradley Bold, Cavala Splits The Baby, Brown A Coward

by: David Dayen

Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 11:03:46 AM PST


I don't actually support Eric Bradley for a second term as CDP Controller.  I think Hillary Crosby would be a fresh face and give the large Progressive Caucus coalition a grassroots voice in the leadership.  But I have to applaud Bradley, an occasional commenter here, supporting a majority vote to restore democracy to the state.

I look forward to working with all of you in building a stronger California Democratic Party-one that is ready for the challenges ahead, filled with energy and enthusiasm to elect a Democrat as Governor in 2010, to pass an initiative that reduces the threshold for the state budget to a simple majority, to defeat the destructive Louisiana Style Open Primary initiative proposed by Arnold Schwarzenegger and to maintain our majorities in the State Legislature.

This is a Party Controller candidate.  If he can advocate for majority vote, anybody can.  That's why it's truly disappointing to see Jerry Brown mute on this issue, letting everyone else in the state lead while the issue is in the forefront while he calibrates his position.  It's a cowardly stance, and nobody running for Governor should be silent on the only issue that will allow them to actually govern.  Some have said that it is better to say nothing than to be counter-productive in calling for something arbitrary like a 55% standard.  There's a slogan for you: "Brown '10 - Not Being Counter-Productive."  Inspiring!

One thing that Bradley and many other Democrats leave aside is an explanation that we have not one 2/3 requirement, but two.  There is the 2/3 vote needed to pass a budget, and the 2/3 vote needed to raise taxes.  Bill Cavala, who ably represents warmed-over consultocracy CW in Sacramento, argues that Democrats should only attempt to change the budget requirement due to political expediency:

Here's the good news: voters do agree that a budget should be passed by majority vote. They would, albeit somewhat narrowly, support such a ballot measure.

Now here's the bad news: they will not support changing the requirement that demands a two-thirds vote to raise taxes. Combine the two measures, and both would be defeated.

Convinced by media coverage of government that yearly exposes a few million dollars in obvious waste or egregious prerequisites for politicians, voters believe in most circumstances new taxes are not needed. Cut the 'waste' instead. But even voters got the word that lopping the pay raises of the 20% of the Legislature's staff that received them wouldn't cover a $42,000,000,000 revenue shortfall [...]

While it would be nice to exclude Republicans from tax decisions, we are unlikely to be able to do so anytime soon. By combining the 2/3 tax hike requirement with the 2/3 budget requirement we risk losing both - as labor found out when they put this package on the ballot a few years ago, spent millions, and lost big.

By taking the half a loaf we can get - the reduction of votes needed to pass a budget to a majority - we still gain a great deal. Republican lawmakers are certainly now aware that Democrats will pay a high price to keep the State solvent. The sidebar deals needed to raise taxes get some progressive praise now - but what sidebars will be demanded to pass a spending plan (without new taxes) in the future? And what makes anyone think the Democrats in the Legislature wouldn't pony up?

This is the stupidest argument I've ever heard.  Changing the budget but not taxes is TOM MCCLINTOCK'S view of things.  It makes Democrats own a budget that can only be modified with expenditure cuts.  In the event of a deficit, Democrats would have to either cave and cut services or hold out with the exact same dynamic that we saw this year.  And it will not allow the legislature to tackle the structural revenue gap that comes from a tax system too closely tied to boom-and-bust budget cycles.  This is perverse consultant-class thinking that is dangerously outdated, constantly compromising, and believes in political reality as static rather than lifting a finger to change that reality.  Thinking that March 2004 and June 2010 are the same is just ridiculous, and thinking that no argument can be made to the public, after the longest and most self-evidently absurd budget process in decades, that the system is fundamentally broken and has to be changed to allow the majority to do their job, is in many ways why we're in this position to begin with.

So not only do we have to watch Democratic leaders to see whether or not they support repealing 2/3 with a majority vote rather than some arbitrary number, we have to watch them to see if they want to split the baby or not, either repealing both 2/3 requirements, or just dealing with the budget without taxes, which would actually put Democrats in a demonstrably worse situation.

David Dayen :: Two-Thirds Watch: Bradley Bold, Cavala Splits The Baby, Brown A Coward
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Consultant Thinking (5.00 / 1)
Hell, if anything Cavala's thinking is exactly backwards.  He ought to be advising the Dems to go after the provision changing the vote over taxes and NOT the budget.  That, at least, attacks the end of the problem that the GOP is holding us hostage over.

Consultant thinking all over the place (0.00 / 0)
Is Cavala familiar with persuasion, either as a tactic or an aspect of the human mind?  In their landmark book on where persuasion comes from, Politicians Don't Pander, Jacobs and Shapiro demonstrate pretty conclusively the power of elites to shape an agenda and move opinion.  Maybe if Sacramento elites like Cavala would focus a little more on playing to win, he'd see some different poll numbers.

Yes We Kang

[ Parent ]
Where's Jerry ? (0.00 / 0)
This is a good question, and one that I have to echo.

Either you're stepping up now, or you're yesterday's news.

I really like Jerry Brown, as someone who has an incredible depth and breadth of experience, and a cynical, self-deprecating sense of humor that i love.

But if Jerry's not stepping up now, he's surrendering by default to the guys who are participating.

No Real Housewives, but plenty of action at Orange County Progressive.

Come for the politics. Stay for dessert.


Expedience is the cowards route (0.00 / 0)
And half-assing this fight shows you don't really believe in what you're doing.  How can you expect someone else to believe in your fight if you don't?  Go big or go home.

Yes We Kang

Reality is a hard place to live in (0.00 / 0)
Wake up and smell the coffee.  Winning an achievable election for a simple majority vote would be big.  How many budgets required raising taxes ?  I suppose some of you folks think we must raise taxes every budget ?  We'll be the minority party living in a broke state before long.  Politics is a tough and slow business, not the place for people who need instant gratification.  Patience wins elections and our due.  Obama didn't spring out of nowhere, lots of work went into preparing the ground for his election.

We should also consider some other big fixes like requiring a sunset for tax breaks or at least the same vote required to raise taxes as to lower them.  That would create momentum to change the dynamic.  Educate your self about the issues before castign aspersions on folks, especially a smart guy who's paid more dues than anyone on this website.  Ol' Dr. Cavala is one of the people responsible for our big Dem majorities.  His work over the years in the Speaker's Office was critical to many of the liberal/progressive victories that we now take for granted.

Be nice, not mean !  At least make the conversation a bit more civil in the family.  Leave the anger and spite to the Reeps.


Just a couple thoughts (0.00 / 0)
1)  How many of the next few budgets are going to require raising taxes?  All of them. Let the Republicans run against the actual effects of actual revenue measures, not the boogeymen threats of potential revenue measures.

2)  Y'know, there are 49 other states in the union.  Almost all of them allow revenue measures without a ridiculous supermajority.  I wasn't aware that they were in worse trouble than California.

3)  Every time I hear someone waxing rhapsodic about the dues-paying elder statesmen of California politics, I'm reminded that most of them are professionals.  They got paid, often quite handsomely, to "pay their dues".  Maybe in theory they gave up a much more lucrative career in private industry, but that's not clear to me.


[ Parent ]
Back in the "old days" public service was an honorable (0.00 / 0)
career. We'd all be in better shape if that were still the case and if Prop 13 and the rest of the anti-tax movement hadn't hamstrung the public sector.

It was, after all, the private sector that gave us that Trojan Horse.

It doesn't make sense to me to knock people who've contributed a lot to the public good, just because employment fashions changed.

That doesn't mean I agree with Cavala's argument or analysis - but I do respect his service and what motivated his service.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't dispute that (0.00 / 0)
And I'm not saying (here) that Bill Cavala isn't a smart guy, or hasn't done helpful things.

But we get a fair number of professional insider Democrats coming here and telling us that we're stupid idealists who should shut up and they know better because they're professionals, AND we have to respect their sacrifices.  So, which is it?  Do they just do this for a living, or have they made sacrifices different from the sacrifices that other people make to put food on their children?  It's one thing for actual politicians to say they've sacrificed -- in some sense that's generally true, at least right up until they take the high-six-figure consultant's gig.  But professional insiders?  Really?

I'm not willing to be STFU'd with that kind of BS power play.  Either the ideas are good or they're not.


[ Parent ]
i'm willing to make the bet (0.00 / 0)
that the california electorate wants taxes and good services more than tax cuts and no services. if they liked the antitax stuff, republicans would not be scraping just to get over a third of the assembly and state senate seats.

besides, if it were a 50% simple majority for taxes and budget, then the voters could change their mind if they didn't like it. right now, they get the same option every time no matter how they vote.

patience with the way things are is why we are in this mess, having built up years of lame borrow and spend temporary crisis budgets to buy off republican votes. how much worse do you think it needs to get before dems can make a clear argument for being given the right to run an elected body that they win 60% of the seats in?

surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat


[ Parent ]
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