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No on Prop 8 leading by 5

by: Brian Leubitz

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 22:10:16 PM PDT


Some good news in the most recent Field poll (PDF) (kinda).  Prop 8 is down by 5 points, 44% Yes, 49% No. While one would like to see these two numbers further apart, these are pretty good numbers. And as the campaign points out, Field is just about the only pollster that has a good track record on propositions, at about 94%.

All that being said, this is still going to be a tight race. One worrisome indicator is that for those who voted already, Yes is leading (50-44). So please, please, do not let up.  The progressive position tends to fare better on election day, but that requires we do all the hard GOTV work. Do not quit at 6PM when some LGBT organizations in LA have ridiculously chosen to start their party. Do not quit until that last poll closes.

One concern is that if the presidential victor has been chosen before our polls close, voters will stop voting.  Don't let them. We need every one of our voters to vote. 8 PM people, and then you can celebrate or do whatever you want. But until 8, let's not leave anything on the field. Regrets in elections don't win you any votes. And hopefully this ad, narrated by Samuel L. Jackson, will help.

Brian Leubitz :: No on Prop 8 leading by 5
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Exactly - go all the way against 8 (0.00 / 0)
That ad is really, really good. It's about time we saw the truth about Prop 8, especially California's interracial marriage bans.

The whole "early parties" thing is really obnoxious. It suggests to me a basic lack of seriousness about Prop 8 - as if all that matters is Obama.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


people got complacent too early (0.00 / 0)
I think for a lot of people they got complacent very early on. After all, people in safe areas like big cities saw their friends finally getting married and thought "oh marriage is safe from the bad guys."

Then of course, the Mormon Church and their friends pumped in 30 million dollars, made all sorts of "gays are nazis" jokes and suddenly it was a fight. And I think it's good people are reminding folks who are voting to vote the entire ballot - it'll be interesting to see how many ballots are returned with just a vote for Obama and nothing else....even in allegedly safe San Francisco...

--
www.gregdewar.com


Look at the "already voted" numbers (0.00 / 0)
Yes 50%, No 44%. That's the complacency argument right there. The polling is nice and all, but the actual votes being cast don't actually work out that way yet.

You know what's interesting in those numbers? (0.00 / 0)
The fact that 6% are undecided. So, you already voted, yet you are still undecided. I suppose those people probably either undervoted, or perhaps just refused to state their position.

I think?

[ Parent ]
the other interesting thing there (0.00 / 0)
is that people who have already voted are disproportionately likely to have voted yes.

this jibes with the historical tendency for early voting and early absentees to lean conservative in California.

Which means that if Prop 8 appears to be winning at 9pm on Tuesday night, we should not lose hope: the percentage then will be the largest percentage it gets, and the numbers will shrink as the evening goes on.


Prop 8 threatens religious freedom (0.00 / 0)
Here's an argument religious and constitutional conservatives should agree with: Prop 8 violates violates our freedom of religion. The very first of the American Bill of Rights confirms freedom of religion. No church would ever be forced to perform a gay marriage if they didn't want to. But those that want to, can; the United Church of Christ, Presbytarian Church, Unitarian Universalist Assoc., Reform Judaism, and others allow same-sex marriage. Vote NO on Prop 8, and allow everyone their right to choose to worship in their own way; that's American.

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