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We are a Fickle Bunch, aren't we? Obama now leads Clinton in CA

by: Brian Leubitz

Mon May 12, 2008 at 08:10:08 AM PDT


San Francisco's CBS affiliate, KPIX, commissioned a rather meaningless poll last week about the primary election gone by. (Full poll info (PDF)). The results now show Obama leading Clinton 49-43. I guess there's always more room on the bandwagon. I'm not sure this poll has any real meaning at all, but perhaps it does kind of put a dent in the "Obama can't win the big states" logic.  Not that anybody could have credibly said that Obama was going to lose CA before, but this might pull one more arrow from Senator Clinton's quiver.

What's kind of fun here, is that the "presumptive nominees" do substantially better in the "who did you vote for" than the actual vote.  In the real vote, the result was an approximate 10 point win for Clinton. In the poll, it was only a 2 point win.  On the GOP side, it seems there was a 22 point victory for McCain instead of the 8 point actual margin.  Funny how everybody wants to back a winner, huh?

Brian Leubitz :: We are a Fickle Bunch, aren't we? Obama now leads Clinton in CA
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Dunno about fickle (0.00 / 0)
Obama was trending upward as we approached Feb 5. He actually won among voters who cast ballots on election day, but lost the popular vote because early voters went for Hillary in larger numbers - and there were a lot of early Edwards voters as well.

These poll numbers would seem to reflect the expected continuation of that trend, especially as most of the Edwards folks appear to now be backing Obama.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave


A good point (0.00 / 0)
Obama was trending up. But in the end, I fail to see the point of this poll. We already voted, we're going to vote for the Dem. nominee, so what's the point here.  Just seems like kinda journalistic frivolity to me.

At least in the PDF, it seems they didn't even ask about McCain/Obama matchup. Perhaps that's coming later though.

I'm proud to work for Kamala Harris for AG.


[ Parent ]
Definitely agree there (0.00 / 0)
McCain-Obama is what needs to be polled; asking Californians about Obama-Clinton over 3 months after the primary is pretty pointless.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

[ Parent ]
Actually (8.00 / 1)
it does serve to undercut one of Hillary's talking points among superdelegates.  Kos commissioned a poll in Connecticut asking voters who they would vote for in the Senate race if they could have a do-over, and Lamont beat Lieberman pretty handily.

If Obama would beat Hillary in California if we could vote again today, it would clearly indicate that Hillary's win in CA was due entirely to a name-recognition advantage among early voters in mid-January, and the same might be said of other super tuesday states.


[ Parent ]
Exactly. This poll is not pointless (0.00 / 0)
It might be a waste of someone else's money, but it's not entirely pointless.

Given this liminal "presumptive nominee" period between now and June 3, I'd actually like to see polls commissioned in many of the large states that Clinton won.

It might serve to underscore one potential outcome of this poll: Obama is actually now more competitive than Clinton in many large states like CA.

Oh, and people always love to back a "winner" (which -- given that absentee voting began in CA immediately after Hillary's New Hampshire comeback -- is one significant driver of Hillary's Super Tuesday victory in CA).

Disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign. These opinions are my own and are not necessarily those of my employer.  


[ Parent ]
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