Continuing with Dave's election theme from earlier, the first numbers that I've seen on general election matchups in CA-50 arrived in my inbox earlier today. They're from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and were commissioned by the Nick Leibham campaign. They run the gamut from the district as a whole to specific matchups, but let's not lose focus on the contested Democratic primary being settled on June 3 between Leibham and Cheryl Ede. However, many of these numbers have more to do with Bilbray, the district, and it being a bad year to be a Republican.
Congressional generic:
Democrat: 43%
Republican: 39%
Other/DK: 17%
If nothing else, it's an indicator that the district is open to a Democrat. Meanwhile, Rep. Brian Bilbray's re-elect is at an uninspiring 42%.
Definitely re-elect: 15%
Probably re-elect: 27%
Probably vote for someone else: 18%
Definitely vote for someone else: 21%
Other/DK: 20%
42 is not a good number, especially at this point. While there are some who will come home to the GOP eventually, that's a lot of persuadable voters and a lot of people who aren't too impressed with Bilbray.
Since this was a Leibham poll, they obviously polled the general matchup, which I suppose helps feed fundraising and a "I'm the one who can win" primary frame. Initial numbers came out:
Bilbray: 52%
Leibham: 34%
Undecided: 13%
So plenty of ground to make up, but a district that's open to someone who's not a nutjob like Brian Bilbray. It was neck and neck after a bio read, but I don't put a lot of stock in bio read numbers for predicative purposes: The bio doesn't matter until people know it. Once they know it, the shift will show in the base numbers.
But this far out, this is looking like a race that can and should be competitive for the eventual Democratic nominee. Bilbray has staked his claim on being even crazier than George Bush and John McCain. If that's what he wants to be judged on, then let's give him a run for it. |
