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February Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

by: cali_girl_in_texas

Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 19:03:38 PM PST


(Another installment of great data. - promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a "Partisan Factor" (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.
cali_girl_in_texas :: February Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008
ASSEMBLY


Republican-Held Seats (12)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin
2
Doug LaMalfa
31.86%
47.28%
R+15.42
3
Rick Keene
33.81%
41.31%
R+7.50
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.19%
41.20%
R+3.01
15
Guy Houston
38.72%
38.82%
R+0.10
26
Greg Aghazarian
41.05%
41.21%
R+0.16
34
Bill Maze
33.23%
46.23%
R+13.00
36
Sharon Runner
36.61%
42.00%
R+5.39
64
John Benoit
33.98%
44.71%
R+10.73
71
Todd Spitzer
26.95%
51.27%
R+24.32
75
George Plescia
29.43%
42.79%
R+13.36
78
Shirley Horton
41.58%
33.10%
D+8.48
80
Bonnie Garcia
45.68%
36.49%
D+9.19

District2002G
2004P
2004S2006SReg.PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.4
R+24.0
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.5
R+12.2
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+3.0
R+5.6
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
R+0.1
D+6.4
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.2
R+2.8
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+13.0
R+21.2
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+5.4
R+10.7
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+10.7
R+8.7
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+24.3
R+24.4
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+13.4
R+8.1
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+8.5
D+11.7
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+9.2
D+12.9


Democratic-Held Seats (11)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin
1
Patty Berg
45.18%
28.11%
D+17.07
8
Lois Wolk
46.17%
29.28%
D+16.89
13
Mark Leno
57.08%
9.22%
D+47.86
14
Loni Hancock
59.41%
14.59%
D+44.82
19
Gene Mullin
50.48%
22.18%
D+28.30
22
Sally Lieber
43.91%
23.81%
D+20.10
27
John Laird
48.60%
26.10%
D+22.50
30
Nicole Parra
46.18%
38.40%
D+7.78
40
Lloyd Levine
47.89%
27.75%
D+20.14
46
Fabian Núñez
64.07%
12.00%
D+52.07
52
Mervyn Dymally
68.49%
11.85%
D+56.64

District2002G
2004P
2004S2006SReg.PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+17.1
D+21.8
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+16.9
D+18.0
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+47.9
D+64.0
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+44.8
D+55.8
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+28.3
D+39.1
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+20.1
D+34.4
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+22.5
D+31.5
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+7.8
D+1.4
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+20.1
D+24.5
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+52.1
D+64.0
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+56.6
D+71.9


SENATE


Republican-Held Seats (5)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin
15
Abel Maldonado*
40.05%
36.82%
D+3.23
19
Tom McClintock
36.84%
39.93%
R+3.09
29
Bob Margett
32.37%
44.19%
R+11.82
33
Dick Ackerman
27.32%
50.06%
R+22.74
37
Jim Battin
35.14%
44.28%
R+9.14

District2002G
2004P
2004S2006SReg.PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+3.2
D+7.8
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+3.1
D+1.2
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+11.8
R+10.2
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+22.7
R+21.6
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+9.1
R+7.6


Democratic-Held Seats (6)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin
5
Michael Machado
46.32%
32.14%
D+14.18
7
Tom Torlakson
47.16%
30.12%
D+17.04
9
Don Perata
59.52%
13.20%
D+46.32
21
Jack Scott
45.89%
28.18%
D+17.71
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.31%
25.01%
D+25.30
25
Edward Vincent
59.23%
20.16%
D+39.07

District2002G
2004P
2004S2006SReg.PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+14.2
D+16.0
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+17.0
D+24.2
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+46.3
D+57.8
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+17.7
D+26.7
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+25.3
D+33.1
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+39.1
D+46.0


Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF's, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly
DistrictPF
80
D+12.9
78
D+11.7
15
D+6.4
30
D+1.4
26
R+2.8
10
R+5.6
64
R+8.1
75
R+8.7

Senate
DistrictPF
15
D+7.8
19
D+1.2

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Thanks for updating! (8.00 / 1)
This is great data. We did pretty well knocking the registration differences back down in some of these disctricts.  I'm really excited about AD-15. That should be a great pickup shot this cycle, and I get to help b/c that's not to far from SF.  AD-78 and AD-80 should be ours, and we have a bunch of great candidates for those seats.

I think?

and this is why i'm not worried about either wolk or machado's seats (8.00 / 1)
as they both term out. wolk will glide into the 5th SD, and whoever wins the yamada-cabaldon primary will basically win the 8th AD. take it to the bank.

Great work (8.00 / 1)
I'll be bookmarking this.

Thanks for this (6.50 / 2)
Good to see this information out there. It suggests that a bold strategy targeting a large number of districts - more than just the three or four that have been proposed by the Sacramento leadership - would likely pay off in what is likely to be a very Democratic-friendly election this November.

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

I plan on writing a diary (8.00 / 3)
My husband is running in the Senate race as a Democrat, 33rd to be exact.  :)

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


Fantastic! (8.00 / 3)
Get him to write a diary here too, we'd be happy to promote it to the front page (as all diaries from electeds and candidates are).

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

[ Parent ]
I plan on encouraging (8.00 / 1)
him to do so.  I get to be the candidate's wife, does that count? :)

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


[ Parent ]
Well, you're more than that (8.00 / 2)
You're an integral part of the campaign. Plus your status at Daily Kos should be invaluable in not just getting out the word about his campaign, but also in collecting much-needed campaign funds (especially since it's not likely that the Sacramento leadership is going to see SD-33 as winnable).

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave

[ Parent ]
Great! (8.00 / 2)
Put me down as a contributor! Got an actBlue page?

I think?

[ Parent ]
Currently working (8.00 / 1)
on all that as we speak!  The decision to run was made on Friday and since we are both new to this, there is a lot to learn.  No wonder people don't run for office, it is intimidating, especially as a Democrat.  

But how can a Democrat win if a Democrat doesn't run?

I will post information when I have it.  Thank you!

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


[ Parent ]
Let me know how I/we can help! n/t (8.00 / 3)


I think?

[ Parent ]
Trust me (8.00 / 2)
We will!  Thanks so much.

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


[ Parent ]
woo-hoo! I'm on board, all the way (8.00 / 2)
from Virginia!

[ Parent ]
My goodness (8.00 / 1)
I really don't know what I would do if I didn't have you in my corner :) Just knowing that we have so many awesome people already willing and ready to help has made the whole undertaking that much less intimidating!  

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


[ Parent ]
I live out of state (8.00 / 1)
and I am 110% willing to help us get to 2/3 also!

My blog

Twitter


[ Parent ]
Thank you (8.00 / 1)
:)

OC Progressive
Progress, not perfection!


[ Parent ]
This is terrific data! (8.00 / 2)
Thanks for this.  I didn't realize my Senator was term-limited (Margett).  Oh, how I'll miss him and his "single-payer health care would make your doctor's office look like the DMV" rhetoric...

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